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Author : Jeremy Nalewaik
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 70 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)
Download or read book Incorporating Vintage Differences and Forecasts Into Markov Switching Models written by Jeremy Nalewaik and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : David H. Romer
Publisher : Brookings Institution Press
ISBN 13 : 0815705131
Total Pages : 378 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (157 download)
Download or read book Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Spring 2010 written by David H. Romer and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2010-09 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) provides academic and business economists, government officials, and members of the financial and business communities with timely research on current economic issues. Contents: Editors' Summary The Labor Market in the Great Recession By Michael W. L. Elsby (University of Michigan), Bart Hobijn (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco), and Aysegül Sahin (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) The Income- and Expenditure- Side Estimates of U.S. Output Growth By Jeremy J. Nalewaik (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) The Rug Rat Race By Garey Ramey and Valerie A. Ramey (University of California, San Diego) The Crisis By Alan Greenspan (Greenspan Associates LLC) The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries By Olivier J. Blanchard (International Monetary Fund and MIT), Mitali Das (International Monetary Fund), and Hamid Faruqee (International Monetary Fund) Geographic Variation in Health Care: The Role of Private Markets By Tomas J. Philipson (University of Chicago), Seth A. Seabury (RAND Corporation), Lee M. Lockwood (University of Chicago), Dana P. Goldman (University of Southern California), and Darius Lakdawalla (Univeresity of Southern California)
Author : Todd E. Clark
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 70 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)
Download or read book Averaging Forecasts from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities written by Todd E. Clark and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A body of recent work suggests commonly-used VAR models of output, inflation, and interest rates may be prone to instabilities. In the face of such instabilities, a variety of estimation or forecasting methods might be used to improve the accuracy of forecasts from a VAR. These methods include using different approaches to lag selection, different observation windows for estimation, (over-) differencing, intercept correction, stochastically time-varying parameters, break dating, discounted least squares, Bayesian shrinkage, and detrending of inflation and interest rates. Although each individual method could be useful, the uncertainty inherent in any single representation of instability could mean that combining forecasts from the entire range of VAR estimates will further improve forecast accuracy. Focusing on models of U.S. output, prices, and interest rates, this paper examines the effectiveness of combination in improving VAR forecasts made with real-time data. The combinations include simple averages, medians, trimmed means, and a number of weighted combinations, based on: Bates-Granger regressions, factor model estimates, regressions involving just forecast quartiles, Bayesian model averaging, and predictive least squares-based weighting. Our goal is to identify those approaches that, in real time, yield the most accurate forecasts of these variables. We use forecasts from simple univariate time series models and the Survey of Professional Forecasters as benchmarks.
Author : Todd E. Clark
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 102 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)
Download or read book Forecasting with Small Macroeconomic VARs in the Presence of Instabilities written by Todd E. Clark and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Small-scale VARs have come to be widely used in macroeconomics, for purposes ranging from forecasting output, prices, and interest rates to modeling expectations formation in theoretical models. However, a body of recent work suggests such VAR models may be prone to instabilities. In the face of such instabilities, a variety of estimation or forecasting methods might be used to improve the accuracy of forecasts from a VAR. These methods include using different approaches to lag selection, observation windows for estimation, (over-) differencing, intercept correction, stochastically time--varying parameters, break dating, discounted least squares, Bayesian shrinkage, detrending of inflation and interest rates, and model averaging. Focusing on simple models of U.S. output, prices, and interest rates, this paper compares the effectiveness of such methods. Our goal is to identify those approaches that, in real time, yield the most accurate forecasts of these variables. We use forecasts from simple univariate time series models, the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Federal Reserve Board's Greenbook as benchmarks
Author : Sugata Ray
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 64 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)
Download or read book An Efficiency Perspective on the Gains from Mergers and Asset Purchases written by Sugata Ray and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Elizabeth Klee
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 70 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)
Download or read book Operational Problems and Aggregate Uncertainty in the Federal Funds Market written by Elizabeth Klee and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Dennis J. Fixler
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 74 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)
Download or read book News, Noise, and Estimates of the "true" Unobserved State of the Economy written by Dennis J. Fixler and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Jeremy Nalewaik
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 74 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)
Download or read book Estimating Probabilities of Recession in Real Time Using GDP and GDI written by Jeremy Nalewaik and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : David Reifschneider
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 78 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)
Download or read book Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook from Historical Forecasting Errors written by David Reifschneider and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Peter Kennedy
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1405182571
Total Pages : 608 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (51 download)
Download or read book A Guide to Econometrics written by Peter Kennedy and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-02-19 with total page 608 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dieses etwas andere Lehrbuch bietet keine vorgefertigten Rezepte und Problemlösungen, sondern eine kritische Diskussion ökonometrischer Modelle und Methoden: voller überraschender Fragen, skeptisch, humorvoll und anwendungsorientiert. Sein Erfolg gibt ihm Recht.
Download or read book Sectoral Productivity in the United States written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Robert A. Meyers
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1441977007
Total Pages : 919 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (419 download)
Download or read book Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics written by Robert A. Meyers and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-11-03 with total page 919 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finance, Econometrics and System Dynamics presents an overview of the concepts and tools for analyzing complex systems in a wide range of fields. The text integrates complexity with deterministic equations and concepts from real world examples, and appeals to a broad audience.
Author : Karen E. Dynan
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 86 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)
Download or read book The Evolution of Household Income Volatility written by Karen E. Dynan and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Benjamin A. Malin
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 70 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)
Download or read book Hyperbolic Discounting and Uniform Savings Floors written by Benjamin A. Malin and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Graham Elliott
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400880890
Total Pages : 567 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)
Download or read book Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-04-05 with total page 567 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike
Author : Xiaohong Chen
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1461416531
Total Pages : 582 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (614 download)
Download or read book Recent Advances and Future Directions in Causality, Prediction, and Specification Analysis written by Xiaohong Chen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 582 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a collection of articles that present the most recent cutting edge results on specification and estimation of economic models written by a number of the world’s foremost leaders in the fields of theoretical and methodological econometrics. Recent advances in asymptotic approximation theory, including the use of higher order asymptotics for things like estimator bias correction, and the use of various expansion and other theoretical tools for the development of bootstrap techniques designed for implementation when carrying out inference are at the forefront of theoretical development in the field of econometrics. One important feature of these advances in the theory of econometrics is that they are being seamlessly and almost immediately incorporated into the “empirical toolbox” that applied practitioners use when actually constructing models using data, for the purposes of both prediction and policy analysis and the more theoretically targeted chapters in the book will discuss these developments. Turning now to empirical methodology, chapters on prediction methodology will focus on macroeconomic and financial applications, such as the construction of diffusion index models for forecasting with very large numbers of variables, and the construction of data samples that result in optimal predictive accuracy tests when comparing alternative prediction models. Chapters carefully outline how applied practitioners can correctly implement the latest theoretical refinements in model specification in order to “build” the best models using large-scale and traditional datasets, making the book of interest to a broad readership of economists from theoretical econometricians to applied economic practitioners.
Author : J. Benson Durham
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 62 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)
Download or read book Implied Interest Rate Skew, Term Premiums, and the "conundrum" written by J. Benson Durham and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
