Incidence Onset And Duration Of Civil Wars

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Incidence, Onset and Duration of Civil Wars

Author : Michael F. Bleaney
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (837 download)

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Book Synopsis Incidence, Onset and Duration of Civil Wars by : Michael F. Bleaney

Download or read book Incidence, Onset and Duration of Civil Wars written by Michael F. Bleaney and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the determinants of onset, duration and incidence of civil wars, and their sensitivity to different coding rules. Whatever the coding rule used, incidence of civil war is largely determined by poverty, country size, mountainous terrain and ethnic diversity. Poverty reduces the opportunity cost of rebellion, and mountainous terrain makes rebellions harder to defeat, while ethnic diversity creates potential conflict, since some linguistic groups may feel under-represented. Continuation and onset of civil war are non-overlapping subsets of incidence, depending on whether civil war occurred in the previous year. We exploit this aspect to test whether the determinants of continuation and onset are statistically significantly different. For four out of five coding rules, we cannot reject the null hypothesis of common determinants of civil war onset and continuation. This is the main contribution of the paper. Ethnic diversity is particularly high in Africa, where many civil wars occur, but we show that the significance of ethnic diversity is not just an unidentified Africa effect. Our estimated model works as well for Africa as for other areas. There is evidence that ethnic polarization matters as well as fractionalization. We show that polarization understates the propensity for conflict in societies with high ethnic diversity, where the polarization measure tends to be low, but otherwise outperforms fractionalization as a predictor of conflict. Mountainous terrain is generally not significant when ethnic polarization is included.

What Do We Know about Civil Wars?

Author : Thomas David Mason
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 : 1538169177
Total Pages : 423 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (381 download)

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Book Synopsis What Do We Know about Civil Wars? by : Thomas David Mason

Download or read book What Do We Know about Civil Wars? written by Thomas David Mason and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2023 with total page 423 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Civil wars remain the most frequent and deadly form of organized armed conflict in the world. What Do We Know about Civil Wars? enlists leading scholars to guide students through cutting-edge research on civil war onset, duration, and outcomes, as well as the recurrence and consequences of civil wars to better understand global security.

Civil War Onset - A Comparison of Uganda and Kenya

Author : Ralph Myers
Publisher : GRIN Verlag
ISBN 13 : 3640719425
Total Pages : 41 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (47 download)

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Book Synopsis Civil War Onset - A Comparison of Uganda and Kenya by : Ralph Myers

Download or read book Civil War Onset - A Comparison of Uganda and Kenya written by Ralph Myers and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2010-10-11 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bachelor Thesis from the year 2010 in the subject Sociology - War and Peace, Military, grade: 73%, Dublin City University, course: International Relations, language: English, abstract: This paper poses the research question: what causes civil war? Since the end of World War II, both incidence and duration of civil wars have been on the rise, with disastrous outcomes for humanity. It is crucial that academics study this phenomenon and try to create theories which are able to explain and predict civil war onset for different countries. Two main competing theories have become prominent in the modern day literature surrounding the outbreak of civil war. On the one hand there are “greed” theorists employing econometric models to account for rebel opportunism. These theories centre around the notion that ethno-linguistically or religiously diverse countries experience civil war as a result of the incentive to rebel compared to the state’s ability to counter rebellion. Greed theories focus largely on the ability of rebel groups to recruit and finance themselves, in addition to a number of other variables, which make civil war more or less conducive. On the other side are advocates of the “grievance” theory who argue civil wars start as a result of grievances, built up as a result of political and material discrimination. Depending on the level of grievance in combination with the ability of ethnocultural groups to mobilise and the state’s response to initial protest, civil war occurs. This paper focuses on two case studies, with opposing dependent variables. The first is Uganda which has experienced multiple internal conflicts of varying intensity since gaining independence. The other is Kenya which has been spared the outbreak of a full-blown civil war, although it has experienced a number violent ethnic clashes. The case studies are relatively similar so as to control for third variables, yet chosen in such a fashion as to avoid bias or case fixing. For both countries the greed model is firstly applied followed by a more in-depth look at whether the rationale behind the given independent variables corresponds with political-economic realities. The second part of each case study looks at the applicability of grievance based theories and which set of explanations holds more power with regards to civil war onset. The analysis of both models in the context of the two chosen case studies should determine which theory holds the most explanatory power in relation to civil war onset.

Breaking the Conflict Trap

Author : World Bank
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 0821386417
Total Pages : 195 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (213 download)

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Book Synopsis Breaking the Conflict Trap by : World Bank

Download or read book Breaking the Conflict Trap written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2003-05-30 with total page 195 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Civil war conflict is a core development issue. The existence of civil war can dramatically slow a country's development process, especially in low-income countries which are more vulnerable to civil war conflict. Conversely, development can impede civil war. When development succeeds, countries become safer when development fails, they experience a greater risk of being caught in a conflict trap. Ultimately, civil war is a failure of development. 'Breaking the Conflict Trap' identifies the dire consequences that civil war has on the development process and offers three main findings. First, civil war has adverse ripple effects that are often not taken into account by those who determine whether wars start or end. Second, some countries are more likely than others to experience civil war conflict and thus, the risks of civil war differ considerably according to a country's characteristics including its economic stability. Finally, Breaking the Conflict Trap explores viable international measures that can be taken to reduce the global incidence of civil war and proposes a practical agenda for action. This book should serve as a wake up call to anyone in the international community who still thinks that development and conflict are distinct issues.

On the Duration of Civil War

Author : Paul Collier
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis On the Duration of Civil War by : Paul Collier

Download or read book On the Duration of Civil War written by Paul Collier and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2001 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The duration of large-scale violent civil conflict increases substantially if the society is composed of a few large ethnic groups, if there is extensive forest cover, and if the conflict has commenced since 1980. None of these factors affect the initiation of conflict. And neither the duration nor the initiation of conflict is affected by initial inequality or political repression.

How Much War Will We See? Estimating the Incidence of Civil War in 161 Countries

Author : Ibrahim Elbadawi
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (913 download)

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Book Synopsis How Much War Will We See? Estimating the Incidence of Civil War in 161 Countries by : Ibrahim Elbadawi

Download or read book How Much War Will We See? Estimating the Incidence of Civil War in 161 Countries written by Ibrahim Elbadawi and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: January 2001 As important as knowing how wars start and end is knowing how much war we are likely to observe in any given period. In strategies for preventing civil war, political liberalization should be a higher priority than economic development, but the best possible results would combine political reform, economic diversification, and poverty reduction. Quantitative studies of civil war have focused either on war's onset or its termination, producing important insights into these end points of the process. Elbadawi and Sambanis complement these studies by studying how much war we are likely to observe in any given period. To answer this question, they combine recent advances in the theory of civil war initiation and duration and develop the concept of war incidence, denoting the probability of observing an event of civil war in any given period. They test theories of war initiation and duration against this new concept using a five-year panel data set for 161 countries. Their analysis of the incidence of war corroborates most of the results of earlier studies, enriching those results by highlighting the significance of sociopolitical variables as determinants of the risk of civil war. Their findings: * Steps toward advancing political liberalization or economic development reduce the risk of civil war, whatever the degree of ethnolinguistic fractionalization in a society. * This effect is amplified in polarized societies. The probability of civil war is lower in very homogeneous societies and (less so) in more diverse societies. * In polarized societies the risk of civil war can be reduced by political rather than economic liberalization. At high levels of political freedom, ethnic diversity--even polarization--has a minimal impact on the risk of civil war. * Economic diversification that would reduce a country's reliance on primary exports would also reduce the risk of civil wars, especially in polarized societies. * In strategies for preventing civil war, political liberalization should be a higher priority than economic development, but the best possible results would combine political reform, economic diversification, and poverty reduction. This paper--a product of Public Economics, Development Research Group--is part of a larger effort in the group to study the economics of violence. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project "The Economics of Political and Criminal Violence" (RPO 682-99). The authors may be contacted at [email protected] or [email protected].

Foreign Intervention in Civil Wars

Author : Jung-Yeop Woo
Publisher : Cambridge Scholars Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1527500470
Total Pages : 165 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (275 download)

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Book Synopsis Foreign Intervention in Civil Wars by : Jung-Yeop Woo

Download or read book Foreign Intervention in Civil Wars written by Jung-Yeop Woo and published by Cambridge Scholars Publishing. This book was released on 2017-08-21 with total page 165 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book identifies the conditions under which foreign countries intervene in civil wars, contending that we should consider four dimensions of civil war intervention. The first dimension is the civil war itself. The characteristics of the civil war itself are important determinants of a third party’s decision making regarding intervention. The second dimension is the characteristics of intervening states, and includes their capabilities and domestic political environments. The third is the relationship between the host country and the intervening country. These states’ formal alliances and the differences in military capability between the target country and the potential intervener have an impact on the decision making process. The fourth dimension is the relationship between the interveners. This framework of four dimensions proves critical in understanding foreign intervention in civil wars. Based on this framework, the model for the intervention mechanism can reflect reality better. By including the relationships between the interveners here, the book shows that it is important to distinguish between intervention on the side of the government and intervention on behalf of the opposition. Without distinguishing between these, it is impossible to consider the concepts of counter-intervention and bandwagoning intervention.

Ethic Polarization and the Duration of Civil Wars

Author : Jose G. Montalvo
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Ethic Polarization and the Duration of Civil Wars by : Jose G. Montalvo

Download or read book Ethic Polarization and the Duration of Civil Wars written by Jose G. Montalvo and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2007 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors analyze the relationship between ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars. Several recent papers have argued that the uncertainty about the relative power of the contenders in a war will tend to increase its duration. In these models, uncertainty is directly related to the relative size of the contenders. The authors argue that the duration of civil wars increases the more polarized a society is. Uncertainty is not necessarily linked to the structure of the population but it could be traced back to the measurement of the size of the different groups in the society. Given a specific level of measurement error or uncertainty, more polarization implies lengthier wars. The empirical results show that ethnically polarized countries have to endure longer civil wars than ethnically less polarized societies.

The Oxford Handbook of the Politics of Development

Author : Carol Lancaster
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199845158
Total Pages : 753 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (998 download)

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Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of the Politics of Development by : Carol Lancaster

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of the Politics of Development written by Carol Lancaster and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018 with total page 753 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modernization theory : does economic development cause democratization? / Jose Antonio Cheibub and James Raymond Vreeland -- Dependency theory / James Mahoney and Diana Rodriguez-Franco -- Structuralism / Elliott Green -- Political development / Robert H. Bates -- The Washington Consensus and the new political economy of economic reform / Kevin Morrison -- Penury traps and prosperity tales : why some countries escape poverty while others do not / M. Steven Fish -- Culture, politics and development / Michael Woolcock -- Religion, politics and economic development : synergies and disconnects / Katherine Marshall -- Does inequality harm economic development and democracy? : accounting for missing values, noncomparable observations, and endogeneity / Christian Houle -- Ethnicity and development / Nic Cheeseman -- Civil conflict and development / Håvard Hegre -- The politics of the resource curse : a review / Michael L. Ross -- Taxation and development / Mick Moore -- How do governments build capabilities to do great things? : ten cases, two competing explanations, one large research agenda / Matt Andrews -- Leadership and the politics of development / Adrian Leftwich and Heather Lyne De Ver -- Colonialism and development in africa / Leander Heldring and James A. Robinson -- Investment and debt / Layna Mosley -- The role of the state in harnessing trade-and-investment for development purposes / Theodore H. Moran -- International financial institutions and market liberalization in the developing world / Stephen C. Nelson -- Foreign aid and democratization in developing countries / Danielle Resnick -- Organizing for prosperity : collective action, political parties, and the political economy of development / Philip Keefer -- Missing links in the institutional chain / Anirudh Krishna -- The comparative politics of service delivery in developing countries / Evan S. Lieberman -- Party systems and the politics of development / Allen Hicken -- Populism and political representation / Kenneth M. Roberts -- Africa's political economy in the contemporary era / Peter M. Lewis -- The politics of development in Latin America and East Asia / James W. McGuire -- Development and underdevelopment in the Middle East and North Africa / Melani Cammett -- Rethinking the institutional foundations of china's hypergrowth : official incentives, institutional constraints, and local developmentalism / Fubing Su, Ran Tao, and Dali L. Yang -- The politics of growth in South Korea : miracle, crisis, and the new market economy / Stephan Haggard and Myung-Koo Kang

Parallel Perils

Author : Matthew Lane
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (951 download)

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Book Synopsis Parallel Perils by : Matthew Lane

Download or read book Parallel Perils written by Matthew Lane and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is often noted that civil wars have superseded interstate wars as the primary form of conflict in the international system. What is rarely discussed, however, is that states often find themselves embroiled in parallel conflicts, or multiple civil wars that overlap in time and space. Through four empirical essays, this dissertation project explores the causes and implications of such parallel conflicts through the strategic spatiality of civil war. The first essay questions whether the underlying causes of initial and parallel civil wars systematically differ. I show that, in contrast with the extant literature, these separate types of conflict onsets have dissimilar structural causes, and that by lumping them together we risk conflating the structural foundations of initial and subsequent conflicts. Furthermore, I show that by separating the onset of initial and parallel civil wars, we can leverage important conflict characteristics, such as the severity and geography of ongoing conflicts, to significantly improve predictions of parallel conflict onsets, considerations which are largely absent from the major theories of civil war. Building on these broad insights, the second essay explores the puzzle of why some ethnic groups choose to take up arms against the state. Applying existing theories of conflict contagion between states to the contagion of conflict between ethnic groups within the state, I argue that ongoing conflicts in ethnic groups' geographic proximity provide important resources and information necessary to fight the state, which lowers barriers to entry into conflict. Similarly, the third essay considers why some politically excluded ethnic groups rebel against the state, arguing that the relationship between ethnopolitical exclusion and civil war is shaped by excluded groups' broader political and strategic neighborhoods. I first show that neighborhoods of inconsistent ethnopolitical exclusion, by highlighting excluded groups' disadvantages and exacerbating feelings of resentment, lead groups to take up arms. Paralleling the previous essay, I argue that geographic proximity and relative prevalence of ongoing conflicts in excluded groups' immediate neighborhoods provide logistical and motivational benefits. Shifting from the study of civil war onset, the last empirical essay examines how the duration of civil war is affected by the spatial distribution of multiple conflicts within the state. Through a theory of scarce resource division and the loss of strength gradient, I argue that, as the distance between parallel conflicts increases, states' war-fighting capacities are stretched across multiple fronts, limiting their ability to definitively suppress rebel forces. These spatial effects, in conjunction with the characteristics of overlapping conflicts, shape the duration of hostilities for by altering the bargaining framework between governments and rebels, leading to interdependent conflict durations. Taken together, these essays consistently support the notion that accounting not only for the existence of multiple conflicts, but also the spatial distribution of those conflicts throughout the state, yields important insights for the ongoing study of civil war.

Colonial Institutions and Civil War

Author : Shivaji Mukherjee
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108844995
Total Pages : 415 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (88 download)

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Book Synopsis Colonial Institutions and Civil War by : Shivaji Mukherjee

Download or read book Colonial Institutions and Civil War written by Shivaji Mukherjee and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-06-03 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Shows how colonial indirect rule and land tenure institutions create state weakness, ethnic inequality and insurgency in India, and around the world.

Public Goods and Ethnic Divisions

Author : Alberto Alesina
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 64 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Public Goods and Ethnic Divisions by : Alberto Alesina

Download or read book Public Goods and Ethnic Divisions written by Alberto Alesina and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present a model that links heterogeneity of preferences across ethnic groups in a city to the amount and type of public good the city supplies. We test the implications of the model with three related datasets: US cities, US metropolitan areas, and US urban counties. Results show that productive public goods -- education, roads, libraries, sewers and trash pickup -- in US cities (metro areas/urban counties) are inversely related to the city's (metro area's/county's) ethnic fragmentation, even after controlling for other socioeconomic and demographic determinants. Ethnic fragmentation is negatively related to the share of local spending on welfare. The results are mainly driven by observations in which majority whites are reacting to varying sizes of minority groups. We conclude that ethnic conflict is an important determinant of local public finances.

The Incidence of Civil War

Author : Timothy Besley
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (32 download)

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Book Synopsis The Incidence of Civil War by : Timothy Besley

Download or read book The Incidence of Civil War written by Timothy Besley and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the incidence of civil war over time. We put forward a canonical model of civil war, which relates the incidence of conflict to circumstances, institutions and features of the underlying economy and polity. We use this model to derive testable predictions and to interpret the cross-sectional and times-series variations in civil conflict. Our most novel emprical finding is that higher world market prices of exported, as well as imported, commodities are strong and significant predictors of higher within-country incidence of civil war.

Handbook of War Studies III

Author : Manus I. Midlarsky
Publisher : University of Michigan Press
ISBN 13 : 0472050575
Total Pages : 389 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (72 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of War Studies III by : Manus I. Midlarsky

Download or read book Handbook of War Studies III written by Manus I. Midlarsky and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2009-06-24 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of War Studies III is a follow-up to Handbook of War Studies I (1993) and II (2000). This new volume collects original work from leading international relations scholars on domestic strife, ethnic conflict, genocide, and other timely topics. Special attention is given to civil war, which has become one of the dominant forms---if not the dominant form---of conflict in the world today. Contributors: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, New York University, and Hoover Institution, Stanford University Nils Petter Gleditsch, International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO), and Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim Håvard Hegre, University of Oslo, and International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) Erin K. Jenne, Central European University, Budapest Mark Irving Lichbach, University of Maryland Roy Licklider, Rutgers University, New Brunswick T. David Mason, University of North Texas Rose McDermott, Cornell University Stephen Saideman, McGill University Håvard Strand, International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) Monica Duffy Toft, Harvard University Manus I. Midlarsky is the Moses and Annuta Back Professor of International Peace and Conflict Resolution at Rutgers University, New Brunswick. He is the founding past president of the Conflict Processes Section of the American Political Science Association and a past vice president of the International Studies Association.

On the Duration of Civil War

Author : Paul Collier
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 29 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis On the Duration of Civil War by : Paul Collier

Download or read book On the Duration of Civil War written by Paul Collier and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The duration of large-scale, violent civil conflict increases substantially if the society is composed of a few large ethnic groups, if there is extensive forest cover, and if the conflict has commenced since 1980. None of these factors affects the initiation of conflict. And neither the duration nor the initiation of conflict is affected by initial inequality or political repression.Collier, Hoeffler, and Soderbom model the duration of large-scale, violent civil conflicts, applying hazard functions to a comprehensive data set on such conflicts for the period 1960-99. They find that the duration of conflicts is determined by a substantially different set of variables than those that determine their initiation. The duration of conflict increases substantially if the society is composed of a few large ethnic groups, if there is extensive forest cover, and if the conflict has commenced since 1980. None of these factors affects the initiation of conflict.The authors also find that neither the duration nor the initiation of conflict is affected by initial inequality or political repression. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that rebellions are initiated where they are viable during conflict, regardless of the prospects of attaining post-conflict goals, and that they persist unless circumstances change.This paper - a product of the Office of the Director, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study large scale violent conflict. The authors may be contacted at [email protected], [email protected], or [email protected].

Population Size, Concentration, and Civil War

Author : Håvard Hegre
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 0604155514
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (41 download)

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Book Synopsis Population Size, Concentration, and Civil War by : Håvard Hegre

Download or read book Population Size, Concentration, and Civil War written by Håvard Hegre and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2007 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why do larger countries have more armed conflict? This paper surveys three sets of hypotheses forwarded in the conflict literature regarding the relationship between the size and location of population groups: Hypotheses based on pure population mass, on distances, on population concentrations, and some residual state-level characteristics. The hypotheses are tested on a new dataset-ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Events Dataset)-which disaggregates internal conflicts into individual events. The analysis covers 14 countries in Central Africa. The conflict event data are juxtaposed with geographically disaggregated data on populations, distance to capitals, borders, and road networks. The paper develops a statistical method to analyze this type of data. The analysis confirms several of the hypotheses.

Pillars of Prosperity

Author : Timothy Besley
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691152683
Total Pages : 393 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)

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Book Synopsis Pillars of Prosperity by : Timothy Besley

Download or read book Pillars of Prosperity written by Timothy Besley and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-08-28 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How nations can promote peace, prosperity, and stability through cohesive political institutions "Little else is required to carry a state to the highest degree of opulence from the lowest barbarism, but peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice; all the rest being brought about by the natural course of things." So wrote Adam Smith a quarter of a millennium ago. Using the tools of modern political economics and combining economic theory with a bird's-eye view of the data, this book reinterprets Smith's pillars of prosperity to explain the existence of development clusters—places that tend to combine effective state institutions, the absence of political violence, and high per-capita incomes. To achieve peace, the authors stress the avoidance of repressive government and civil conflict. Easy taxes, they argue, refers not to low taxes, but a tax system with widespread compliance that collects taxes at a reasonable cost from a broad base, like income. And a tolerable administration of justice is about legal infrastructure that can support the enforcement of contracts and property rights in line with the rule of law. The authors show that countries tend to enjoy all three pillars of prosperity when they have evolved cohesive political institutions that promote common interests, guaranteeing the provision of public goods. In line with much historical research, international conflict has also been an important force behind effective states by fostering common interests. The absence of common interests and/or cohesive political institutions can explain the existence of very different development clusters in fragile states that are plagued by poverty, violence, and weak state capacity.