ETFs and Systemic Risks

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Author :
Publisher : CFA Institute Research Foundation
ISBN 13 : 1944960929
Total Pages : 41 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (449 download)

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Book Synopsis ETFs and Systemic Risks by : Ayan Bhattacharya

Download or read book ETFs and Systemic Risks written by Ayan Bhattacharya and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2020-01-22 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) revolutionized asset markets by using an innovative structure to make investing in a wide variety of asset classes simpler and cheaper. With their growing importance has come increasing concern that these products pose new risks to market stability and performance. This paper examines whether ETFs affect systemic risks in financial markets and, if they do, what the mechanism is by which this impact occurs and what can be done to keep the risks under control. We review current research and empirical evidence on these issues and discuss some emerging risks in ETFs. We ask whether we have the right “rules of the road” to deal with the new drivers of market behavior.

The Exchange-Traded Funds Manual

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Author :
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 047063734X
Total Pages : 382 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (76 download)

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Book Synopsis The Exchange-Traded Funds Manual by : Gary L. Gastineau

Download or read book The Exchange-Traded Funds Manual written by Gary L. Gastineau and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-05-20 with total page 382 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Full coverage of ETF investments from an expert in the field The initial edition of Gary Gastineau's The Exchange-Traded Fund Manual was one of the first books to describe and analyze ETFs. It made the case for the superiority of the structure of investor-friendly ETFs over mutual funds and helped investors select better funds among the ETFs available. With this new edition, Gastineau provides comprehensive information on the latest developments in ETF structures, new portfolio variety, and new trading methods. With a realistic evaluation of today's indexes, Gastineau offers insights on actively managed ETFs, improved index funds, and fund and advisor selection. Discusses how to incorporate ETFs into an investment plan Offers updated coverage of new ETFs, including full-function actively managed ETFs, and a valuable chapter on trading ETFs Written by the leading authority on exchange traded funds Exchange-traded funds offer you diversification and participation in markets and investment strategies that have not been available to most investors. If you want to understand how to use ETFs effectively, the Second Edition of The Exchanged-Traded Fund Manual can show you how.

Exchange-Traded Funds and the New Dynamics of Investing

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Author :
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0190279419
Total Pages : 289 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (92 download)

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Book Synopsis Exchange-Traded Funds and the New Dynamics of Investing by : Ananth N. Madhavan

Download or read book Exchange-Traded Funds and the New Dynamics of Investing written by Ananth N. Madhavan and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2016-06-28 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Exchange-Traded Funds and the New Dynamics of Investing, Ananth Madhavan examines the quiet transformation of asset management through the rise of passive or index investing. A closely-related phenomenon is the rise of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). An ETF is an investment vehicle that trades intraday and seeks to replicate the performance of a specific index. ETFs have grown substantially in size, diversity, and market significance in recent years. These trends have generated considerable interest, especially from retail and institutional investors and increasingly from academics, regulators and the press. ETFs have the power to be a disruptive innovation to today's asset management industry because many traditional active managers and hedge funds deliver a significant fraction of their active returns via static exposures to factors like value. Indeed, for the first time ever, assets in global ETFs exceeded $3 trillion in 2015, passing the amount in hedge funds.

A Comprehensive Guide to Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs)

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Author :
Publisher : CFA Institute Research Foundation
ISBN 13 : 1934667862
Total Pages : 202 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (346 download)

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Book Synopsis A Comprehensive Guide to Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) by : Joanne M. Hill

Download or read book A Comprehensive Guide to Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) written by Joanne M. Hill and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2015-05 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have become in their 25-year history one of the fastest growing segments of the investment management business. These funds provide liquid access to virtually every financial market and allow large and small investors to build institutional-caliber portfolios. Yet, their management fees are significantly lower than those typical of mutual funds. High levels of transparency in ETFs for holdings and investment strategy help investors evaluate an ETF’s potential returns and risks. This book covers the evolution of ETFs as products and in their uses in investment strategies. It details how ETFs work, their unique investment and trading features, their regulatory structure, how they are used in tactical and strategic portfolio management in a broad range of asset classes, and how to evaluate them individually.

Trading Volatility

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781461108757
Total Pages : 316 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (87 download)

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Book Synopsis Trading Volatility by : Colin Bennett

Download or read book Trading Volatility written by Colin Bennett and published by . This book was released on 2014-08-17 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This publication aims to fill the void between books providing an introduction to derivatives, and advanced books whose target audience are members of quantitative modelling community. In order to appeal to the widest audience, this publication tries to assume the least amount of prior knowledge. The content quickly moves onto more advanced subjects in order to concentrate on more practical and advanced topics. "A master piece to learn in a nutshell all the essentials about volatility with a practical and lively approach. A must read!" Carole Bernard, Equity Derivatives Specialist at Bloomberg "This book could be seen as the 'volatility bible'!" Markus-Alexander Flesch, Head of Sales & Marketing at Eurex "I highly recommend this book both for those new to the equity derivatives business, and for more advanced readers. The balance between theory and practice is struck At-The-Money" Paul Stephens, Head of Institutional Marketing at CBOE "One of the best resources out there for the volatility community" Paul Britton, CEO and Founder of Capstone Investment Advisors "Colin has managed to convey often complex derivative and volatility concepts with an admirable simplicity, a welcome change from the all-too-dense tomes one usually finds on the subject" Edmund Shing PhD, former Proprietary Trader at BNP Paribas "In a crowded space, Colin has supplied a useful and concise guide" Gary Delany, Director Europe at the Options Industry Council

Empirical Asset Pricing

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118589475
Total Pages : 512 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (185 download)

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Book Synopsis Empirical Asset Pricing by : Turan G. Bali

Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Turan G. Bali and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-02-26 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Bali, Engle, and Murray have produced a highly accessible introduction to the techniques and evidence of modern empirical asset pricing. This book should be read and absorbed by every serious student of the field, academic and professional.” Eugene Fama, Robert R. McCormick Distinguished Service Professor of Finance, University of Chicago and 2013 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences “The empirical analysis of the cross-section of stock returns is a monumental achievement of half a century of finance research. Both the established facts and the methods used to discover them have subtle complexities that can mislead casual observers and novice researchers. Bali, Engle, and Murray’s clear and careful guide to these issues provides a firm foundation for future discoveries.” John Campbell, Morton L. and Carole S. Olshan Professor of Economics, Harvard University “Bali, Engle, and Murray provide clear and accessible descriptions of many of the most important empirical techniques and results in asset pricing.” Kenneth R. French, Roth Family Distinguished Professor of Finance, Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College “This exciting new book presents a thorough review of what we know about the cross-section of stock returns. Given its comprehensive nature, systematic approach, and easy-to-understand language, the book is a valuable resource for any introductory PhD class in empirical asset pricing.” Lubos Pastor, Charles P. McQuaid Professor of Finance, University of Chicago Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is a comprehensive overview of the most important findings of empirical asset pricing research. The book begins with thorough expositions of the most prevalent econometric techniques with in-depth discussions of the implementation and interpretation of results illustrated through detailed examples. The second half of the book applies these techniques to demonstrate the most salient patterns observed in stock returns. The phenomena documented form the basis for a range of investment strategies as well as the foundations of contemporary empirical asset pricing research. Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns also includes: Discussions on the driving forces behind the patterns observed in the stock market An extensive set of results that serve as a reference for practitioners and academics alike Numerous references to both contemporary and foundational research articles Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is an ideal textbook for graduate-level courses in asset pricing and portfolio management. The book is also an indispensable reference for researchers and practitioners in finance and economics. Turan G. Bali, PhD, is the Robert Parker Chair Professor of Finance in the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University. The recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize, he is the coauthor of Mathematical Methods for Finance: Tools for Asset and Risk Management, also published by Wiley. Robert F. Engle, PhD, is the Michael Armellino Professor of Finance in the Stern School of Business at New York University. He is the 2003 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences, Director of the New York University Stern Volatility Institute, and co-founding President of the Society for Financial Econometrics. Scott Murray, PhD, is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Finance in the J. Mack Robinson College of Business at Georgia State University. He is the recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize.

The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Under Capital Inflows

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475579713
Total Pages : 19 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Under Capital Inflows by : Ms.Sonali Jain-Chandra

Download or read book The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Under Capital Inflows written by Ms.Sonali Jain-Chandra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-02 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in open economies could be impaired if interest rates are driven primarily by global factors, especially during periods of large capital inflows. The main objective of this paper is to assess whether this is true for emerging Asia’s economies. Using a dynamic factor model and a structural vector auto-regression model, we show that long-term interest rates in Asia are indeed predominantly driven by global factors. However, monetary policy transmission mechanism remains effective in the region, as it operates predominantly through short-term interest rates. Nevertheless, the monetary transmission mechanism, though effective, is somewhat weaker in Asia during the periods of surges in capital inflows.

Active Portfolio Management: A Quantitative Approach for Producing Superior Returns and Selecting Superior Returns and Controlling Risk

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Author :
Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN 13 : 007137695X
Total Pages : 596 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (713 download)

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Book Synopsis Active Portfolio Management: A Quantitative Approach for Producing Superior Returns and Selecting Superior Returns and Controlling Risk by : Richard C. Grinold

Download or read book Active Portfolio Management: A Quantitative Approach for Producing Superior Returns and Selecting Superior Returns and Controlling Risk written by Richard C. Grinold and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 1999-11-16 with total page 596 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This new edition of Active Portfolio Management continues the standard of excellence established in the first edition, with new and clear insights to help investment professionals." -William E. Jacques, Partner and Chief Investment Officer, Martingale Asset Management. "Active Portfolio Management offers investors an opportunity to better understand the balance between manager skill and portfolio risk. Both fundamental and quantitative investment managers will benefit from studying this updated edition by Grinold and Kahn." -Scott Stewart, Portfolio Manager, Fidelity Select Equity ® Discipline Co-Manager, Fidelity Freedom ® Funds. "This Second edition will not remain on the shelf, but will be continually referenced by both novice and expert. There is a substantial expansion in both depth and breadth on the original. It clearly and concisely explains all aspects of the foundations and the latest thinking in active portfolio management." -Eric N. Remole, Managing Director, Head of Global Structured Equity, Credit Suisse Asset Management. Mathematically rigorous and meticulously organized, Active Portfolio Management broke new ground when it first became available to investment managers in 1994. By outlining an innovative process to uncover raw signals of asset returns, develop them into refined forecasts, then use those forecasts to construct portfolios of exceptional return and minimal risk, i.e., portfolios that consistently beat the market, this hallmark book helped thousands of investment managers. Active Portfolio Management, Second Edition, now sets the bar even higher. Like its predecessor, this volume details how to apply economics, econometrics, and operations research to solving practical investment problems, and uncovering superior profit opportunities. It outlines an active management framework that begins with a benchmark portfolio, then defines exceptional returns as they relate to that benchmark. Beyond the comprehensive treatment of the active management process covered previously, this new edition expands to cover asset allocation, long/short investing, information horizons, and other topics relevant today. It revisits a number of discussions from the first edition, shedding new light on some of today's most pressing issues, including risk, dispersion, market impact, and performance analysis, while providing empirical evidence where appropriate. The result is an updated, comprehensive set of strategic concepts and rules of thumb for guiding the process of-and increasing the profits from-active investment management.

Asset Prices and Monetary Policy

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Author :
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226092127
Total Pages : 444 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (26 download)

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Book Synopsis Asset Prices and Monetary Policy by : John Y. Campbell

Download or read book Asset Prices and Monetary Policy written by John Y. Campbell and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-11-15 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic growth, low inflation, and financial stability are among the most important goals of policy makers, and central banks such as the Federal Reserve are key institutions for achieving these goals. In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, leading scholars and practitioners probe the interaction of central banks, asset markets, and the general economy to forge a new understanding of the challenges facing policy makers as they manage an increasingly complex economic system. The contributors examine how central bankers determine their policy prescriptions with reference to the fluctuating housing market, the balance of debt and credit, changing beliefs of investors, the level of commodity prices, and other factors. At a time when the public has never been more involved in stocks, retirement funds, and real estate investment, this insightful book will be useful to all those concerned with the current state of the economy.

Alphanomics

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Publisher : Now Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9781601988928
Total Pages : 212 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (889 download)

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Book Synopsis Alphanomics by : Charles Lee

Download or read book Alphanomics written by Charles Lee and published by Now Publishers. This book was released on 2015-12-16 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Alphanomics: The Informational Underpinnings of Market Efficiency is intended to be a compact introduction to academic research on market efficiency, behavioral finance, and fundamental analysis and is dedicated to the kind of decision-driven and prospectively-focused research that is much needed in a market constantly seeking to become more efficient. The authors refer to this type of research as Alphanomics, the informational economics behind market efficiency. Alpha refers to the abnormal returns, which provide the incentive for some subpopulation of investors to engage in information acquisition and costly arbitrage activities. Nomics refers to the economics of alpha extraction, which encompasses the costs and incentives of informational arbitrage as a sustainable business proposition. Some of the questions that are addressed include: why do we believe markets are efficient?; what problems have this belief engendered?; what factors can impede and/or facilitate market efficiency?; what roles do investor sentiment and costly arbitrage play in determining an equilibrium level of informational efficiency?; what is the essence of value investing?; how is it related to fundamental analysis (the study of historical financial data)?; and how might we distinguish between risk and mispricing based explanations for predictability patterns in returns? The first two sections review the evolution of academic thinking on market efficiency and introduce the noise trader model as a rational alternative. Section 3 surveys the literature on investor sentiment and its role as a source of both risks and returns. Section 4 discusses the role of fundamental analysis in value investing. Section 5 reviews the literature on limits to arbitrage, and section 6 discusses research methodology issues associated with the need to distinguish mispricing from risk.

Asset Management

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Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 0199959323
Total Pages : 717 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (999 download)

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Book Synopsis Asset Management by : Andrew Ang

Download or read book Asset Management written by Andrew Ang and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2014 with total page 717 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stocks and bonds? Real estate? Hedge funds? Private equity? If you think those are the things to focus on in building an investment portfolio, Andrew Ang has accumulated a body of research that will prove otherwise. In this book, Ang upends the conventional wisdom about asset allocation by showing that what matters aren't asset class labels but the bundles of overlapping risks they represent.

Semiparametric Modeling of Implied Volatility

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Author :
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540305912
Total Pages : 232 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (43 download)

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Book Synopsis Semiparametric Modeling of Implied Volatility by : Matthias R. Fengler

Download or read book Semiparametric Modeling of Implied Volatility written by Matthias R. Fengler and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-12-19 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers recent advances in the theory of implied volatility and refined semiparametric estimation strategies and dimension reduction methods for functional surfaces. The first part is devoted to smile-consistent pricing approaches. The second part covers estimation techniques that are natural candidates to meet the challenges in implied volatility surfaces. Empirical investigations, simulations, and pictures illustrate the concepts.

Trading VIX Derivatives

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470933089
Total Pages : 293 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (79 download)

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Book Synopsis Trading VIX Derivatives by : Russell Rhoads

Download or read book Trading VIX Derivatives written by Russell Rhoads and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-08-09 with total page 293 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A guide to using the VIX to forecast and trade markets Known as the fear index, the VIX provides a snapshot of expectations about future stock market volatility and generally moves inversely to the overall stock market. Trading VIX Derivatives will show you how to use the Chicago Board Options Exchange's S&P 500 volatility index to gauge fear and greed in the market, use market volatility to your advantage, and hedge stock portfolios. Engaging and informative, this book skillfully explains the mechanics and strategies associated with trading VIX options, futures, exchange traded notes, and options on exchange traded notes. Many market participants look at the VIX to help understand market sentiment and predict turning points. With a slew of VIX index trading products now available, traders can use a variety of strategies to speculate outright on the direction of market volatility, but they can also utilize these products in conjunction with other instruments to create spread trades or hedge their overall risk. Reviews how to use the VIX to forecast market turning points, as well as reveals what it takes to implement trading strategies using VIX options, futures, and ETNs Accessible to active individual traders, but sufficiently sophisticated for professional traders Offers insights on how volatility-based strategies can be used to provide diversification and enhance returns Written by Russell Rhoads, a top instructor at the CBOE's Options Institute, this book reflects on the wide range of uses associated with the VIX and will interest anyone looking for profitable new forecasting and trading techniques.

Volatility and Correlation

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470091401
Total Pages : 864 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Volatility and Correlation by : Riccardo Rebonato

Download or read book Volatility and Correlation written by Riccardo Rebonato and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-07-08 with total page 864 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School

Geopolitical Risk on Stock Returns: Evidence from Inter-Korea Geopolitics

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1557759677
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (577 download)

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Book Synopsis Geopolitical Risk on Stock Returns: Evidence from Inter-Korea Geopolitics by : Seungho Jung

Download or read book Geopolitical Risk on Stock Returns: Evidence from Inter-Korea Geopolitics written by Seungho Jung and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-22 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate how corporate stock returns respond to geopolitical risk in the case of South Korea, which has experienced large and unpredictable geopolitical swings that originate from North Korea. To do so, a monthly index of geopolitical risk from North Korea (the GPRNK index) is constructed using automated keyword searches in South Korean media. The GPRNK index, designed to capture both upside and downside risk, corroborates that geopolitical risk sharply increases with the occurrence of nuclear tests, missile launches, or military confrontations, and decreases significantly around the times of summit meetings or multilateral talks. Using firm-level data, we find that heightened geopolitical risk reduces stock returns, and that the reductions in stock returns are greater especially for large firms, firms with a higher share of domestic investors, and for firms with a higher ratio of fixed assets to total assets. These results suggest that international portfolio diversification and investment irreversibility are important channels through which geopolitical risk affects stock returns.

Option Pricing, Interest Rates and Risk Management

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Author :
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521792370
Total Pages : 324 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (923 download)

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Book Synopsis Option Pricing, Interest Rates and Risk Management by : Elyès Jouini

Download or read book Option Pricing, Interest Rates and Risk Management written by Elyès Jouini and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2001 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2001 handbook surveys the state of practice, method and understanding in the field of mathematical finance. Every chapter has been written by leading researchers and each starts by briefly surveying the existing results for a given topic, then discusses more recent results and, finally, points out open problems with an indication of what needs to be done in order to solve them. The primary audiences for the book are doctoral students, researchers and practitioners who already have some basic knowledge of mathematical finance. In sum, this is a comprehensive reference work for mathematical finance and will be indispensable to readers who need to find a quick introduction or reference to a specific topic, leading all the way to cutting edge material.

Commodity Price Dynamics

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Author :
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139501976
Total Pages : 239 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (395 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Price Dynamics by : Craig Pirrong

Download or read book Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-31 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.