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Hysteresis In Unemployment And Jobless Recoveries
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Book Synopsis Hysteresis in Unemployment and Jobless Recoveries by : Dmitry Plotnikov
Download or read book Hysteresis in Unemployment and Jobless Recoveries written by Dmitry Plotnikov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-05-06 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops and estimates a general equilibrium rational expectations model with search and multiple equilibria where aggregate shocks have a permanent effect on the unemployment rate. If agents' wealth decreases, the unemployment rate increases for a potentially indefinite period. This makes unemployment rate dynamics path dependent as in Blanchard and Summers (1987). I argue that this feature explains the persistence of the unemployment rate in the U.S. after the Great Recession and over the entire postwar period.
Book Synopsis Hysteresis Via Endogenous Rigidity in Wages and Participation by : Cynthia L. Doniger
Download or read book Hysteresis Via Endogenous Rigidity in Wages and Participation written by Cynthia L. Doniger and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We document that the past three "jobless" recoveries also featured asymmetries in labor force participation and labor compensation, with each falling to new lows during each cycle. We model these asymmetries as resulting from a strategic complementarity in firms' wage setting and workers' job search strategies. Strategic complementarity results in a continuum of possible equilibria with higher-wage equilibria welfare dominating lower-wage equilibria. Assuming that no economic agent deviates from an existing strategy unless deviation is a unilateral best response, the model exhibits (1) periods of endogenous rigidity in wages and participation, (2) persistent changes in wages, participation, and output in response to transitory movements in labor productivity, (3) sluggish recoveries including both a "jobless" phase, in which productivity recovers while unemployment remains elevated, and a "wageless" phase, in which employment recovers but wages remain depressed. Calibrating the model suggests that the U.S. unemployment rate may need to fall to as low as 2.8 percent before labor compensation recovers to pre-Financial Crisis levels.
Book Synopsis Hysteresis in Unemployment and Jobless Recoveries by : Dmitry Plotnikov
Download or read book Hysteresis in Unemployment and Jobless Recoveries written by Dmitry Plotnikov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-05-06 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops and estimates a general equilibrium rational expectations model with search and multiple equilibria where aggregate shocks have a permanent effect on the unemployment rate. If agents' wealth decreases, the unemployment rate increases for a potentially indefinite period. This makes unemployment rate dynamics path dependent as in Blanchard and Summers (1987). I argue that this feature explains the persistence of the unemployment rate in the U.S. after the Great Recession and over the entire postwar period.
Book Synopsis Slow Recoveries and Unemployment Traps by : Sushant Acharya
Download or read book Slow Recoveries and Unemployment Traps written by Sushant Acharya and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze monetary policy in a model where temporary shocks can permanently scar the economy's productive capacity. Unemployed workers' skill losses generate multiple steady-state unemployment rates. When monetary policy is constrained by the zero bound, large shocks reduce hiring to a point where the economy recovers slowly at best -- at worst, it falls into a permanent unemployment trap. Since monetary policy is powerless to escape such traps ex-post, it must avoid them ex-ante. The model quantitatively accounts for the slow U.S. recovery following the Great Recession, and suggests that lack of swift monetary accommodation helps explain the European periphery's stagnation.
Book Synopsis Hysteresis Via Endogenous Rigidity in Wages and Participation by : Cynthia Doniger
Download or read book Hysteresis Via Endogenous Rigidity in Wages and Participation written by Cynthia Doniger and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We document that the past three ?jobless? recoveries also featured asymmetries in labor force participation and labor compensation, with each falling to new lows during each cycle. We model these asymmetries as resulting from a strategic complementarity in firms' wage setting and workers' job search strategies. Strategic complementarity results in a continuum of possible equilibria with higher-wage equilibria welfare dominating lower-wage equilibria. Assuming that no economic agent deviates from an existing strategy unless deviation is a unilateral best response, the model exhibits (1) periods of endogenous rigidity in wages and participation, (2) persistent changes in wages, participation, and output in response to transitory movements in labor productivity, (3) sluggish recoveries including both a ?jobless " phase, in which productivity recovers while unemployment remains elevated, and a ?wageless " phase, in which employment recovers but wages remain depressed Calibrating the model suggests that the U.S. unemployment rate may need to fall to around 3 percent before labor compensation recovers to pre-Financial Crisis levels.
Book Synopsis Unemployment and Economic Recovery by : Linda Levine
Download or read book Unemployment and Economic Recovery written by Linda Levine and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-11 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although the economy has begun growing again, it may be a while before the unemployment rate shows steady improvement. The unemployment rate is considered a lagging indicator, meaning that its ups and downs happen some time after the ups and downs of other indicators of economic activity. For example, more than a year elapsed before the unemployment rate trended downward following the end of the 1990-1991 and 2001 recessions. This led the two to be labeled jobless recoveries. By contrast, after four earlier recessions the unemployment rate began a sustained decline within four to five months. This report examines the relationship between economic growth and the unemployment rate to anticipate possible future developments.
Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Book Synopsis Unemployment, Hysteresis, and the Natural Rate Hypothesis by : Rod Cross
Download or read book Unemployment, Hysteresis, and the Natural Rate Hypothesis written by Rod Cross and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Aimed at economists and students of macroeconomics and labour economics, this collection of essays covers topics ranging from hysteresis and the natural rate to characteristics of the unemployed.
Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Persistent Long-term Unemployment by : Gabriel P. Mathy
Download or read book Hysteresis and Persistent Long-term Unemployment written by Gabriel P. Mathy and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Essays on Jobless Recovery by : James Patrick DeNicco
Download or read book Essays on Jobless Recovery written by James Patrick DeNicco and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this dissertation I focus on the topic of jobless recovery, which explores the speed of recovery in unemployment rates post-recession, controlling for GDP growth. Chapter one furthers the empirical studies on the time series properties of the United States unemployment rate. Using vector auto regression models and controlling for changes in GDP, the unemployment rate and changes in the unemployment rate, I find structural breaks in 1959 and 1984 indicating that following a recession, the rate of decrease in the unemployment rate significantly slowed over time. Chapter one substantiates the phenomenon of jobless recovery in the United States and uses the timing of the structural breaks to review the possible causes and related theory, including industry composition, participation rates, entitlements and labor laws. Chapter two uses a representative, forward looking firm in capital and labor decisions to introduce separation costs into a discrete, dynamic, efficiency wage model in order to determine the effect of separation costs on both steady state unemployment rates and the hiring process following a negative productivity shock. I find higher separation costs cause higher steady states rates of unemployment and sclerosis of labor dynamics both in separations and hires following a recession. These findings provide a better understanding of the dynamics of post recession unemployment rates and show how firing costs may contribute to jobless recovery. In Chapter three, I study the effects on jobless recovery of diminishing the power of an employer to fire an employee through Employment-At-Will Exceptions (EWEs). I do so by using a dynamic panel with quarterly data ranging from 1976 to 2010 for the 50 states in the United States. I test both changes in state unemployment rates and state-weighted GDP growth in single variable regressions and VAR regressions. My contribution to the literature is threefold. First, I show two of the three EWEs contribute significantly to jobless recovery in the U.S. Second, I lend support to the predictions of theory that increased firing costs decrease the rate of hiring during recoveries. Third, I resolve differences in the various sources documenting the three types of EWEs in different states.
Book Synopsis Hysteresis in Unemployment by : Olivier J. Blanchard
Download or read book Hysteresis in Unemployment written by Olivier J. Blanchard and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Rebirth of the Greek Labor Market by : P. Petrakis
Download or read book The Rebirth of the Greek Labor Market written by P. Petrakis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-12-16 with total page 303 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Rebirth of the Greek Labor Market provides evidence of the macroeconomic evolution of the Greek economy, as well as current conditions in the labor market, to suggest potential areas of growth following the crisis. The contributors of this collection focus on three main issues that make the overall volume distinctive. Firstly, the authors develop a macro-econometric model for the Greek economy, which is flexible in terms of policy analysis and provides reasonable forecasts for the period between 2014-2020, under three scenarios. Secondly, the authors analyze the dynamism in the Greek economy, as well as the problematic Greek labor market. Lastly, using the estimations provided by the macro-econometric model developed, an input-output analysis is conducted - for every one of the three scenarios - in order to investigate and quantify the impact of the economic crisis, not only to the total employment but also in the number of employees by occupation, for all productive sectors of the economy. Using this structure, this indispensable new volume identifies the occupations, professions, and sectors with the greatest losses, as well as those showing a positive momentum, up to 2020.
Book Synopsis Unemployment Rate Hysteresis and the Great Recession by : Girogio Canarella
Download or read book Unemployment Rate Hysteresis and the Great Recession written by Girogio Canarella and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Prosperity for All by : Roger E. A. Farmer
Download or read book Prosperity for All written by Roger E. A. Farmer and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, economists around the world have advanced theories to explain the persistence of high unemployment and low growth rates. Written in clear, accessible language by prominent macroeconomic theorist Roger E. A. Farmer, Prosperity for All proposes a paradigm shift and policy changes that could successfully raise employment rates, keep inflation at bay, and stimulate growth.
Book Synopsis Do Unemployment Benefit Extensions Explain the Emergence of Jobless Recoveries? by : Kurt E. Mitman
Download or read book Do Unemployment Benefit Extensions Explain the Emergence of Jobless Recoveries? written by Kurt E. Mitman and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Countercyclical unemployment benefit extensions in the United States act as a propagation mechanism, contributing to both the high persistence of unemployment and its weak correlation with productivity. We show this by modifying an otherwise standard frictional model of the labor market to incorporate a stochastic and state-dependent process for unemployment insurance estimated on US data. Accounting for movements in both productivity and unemployment insurance, our calibrated model is consistent with unemployment dynamics of the past 50 years. In particular, it explains the emergence of jobless recoveries in the 1990's as well as their absence in previous recessions, the low correlation between unemployment and labor productivity, and the apparent shifts in the Beveridge curve following recessions. Next, we embed this mechanism into a medium-scale DSGE model, which we estimate using standard Bayesian methods. Both shocks to unemployment benefits and their systematic component are shown to be important for the sluggish recovery of employment following recessions, in particular the Great Recession, despite the fact that shocks to unemployment benefits account for little of the overall variance decomposition. If we also incorporate other social safety nets, such as food stamps (SNAP), the estimated model assigns an even bigger role to policy in explaining sluggish labor market recovery. We also find that unemployment benefit extensions prevented deflation in the last three recessions, thus acting similarly to a wage markup shock.
Book Synopsis Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis by : Ali Alichi
Download or read book Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis written by Ali Alichi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-02-19 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper extends the multivariate filter approach of estimating potential output developed by Alichi and others (2018) to incorporate labor market hysteresis. This extension captures the idea that long and deep recessions (expansions) cause persistent damage (improvement) to the labor market, thereby reducing (increasing) potential output. Applying the model to U.S. data results in significantly smaller estimates of output gaps, and higher estimates of the NAIRU, after the global financial crisis, compared to estimates without hysteresis. The smaller output gaps partly explain the absence of persistent deflation despite the slow recovery during 2010-2017. Going forward, if strong growth performance continues well beyond 2018, hysteresis is expected to result in a structural improvement in growth and employment.
Book Synopsis The Jobless Recovery From the 2001 Recession by :
Download or read book The Jobless Recovery From the 2001 Recession written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: