How To Predict Elections

Download How To Predict Elections full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online How To Predict Elections ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!

Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition

Author : Ray Fair
Publisher : Stanford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0804778027
Total Pages : 234 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (47 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition by : Ray Fair

Download or read book Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition written by Ray Fair and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2011-12-14 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "It's the economy, stupid," as Democratic strategist James Carville would say. After many years of study, Ray C. Fair has found that the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. Just in time for the 2012 presidential election, this new edition of his classic text, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, provides us with a look into the likely future of our nation's political landscape—but Fair doesn't stop there. Fair puts other national issues under the microscope as well—including congressional elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation. In addition he covers topics well beyond today's headlines, as the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest such as wine quality, predicting football games, and aging effects in baseball. Which of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? Read Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things and find out! As Fair works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, he teaches and delights. The discussion that underlies each chapter topic moves from formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. At the end of this book, readers will walk away with more than mere predictions. They will have learned a new approach to thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life, and will have a myriad of fun facts to share.

Predicting the Next President

Author : Allan J. Lichtman
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 246 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (818 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Predicting the Next President by : Allan J. Lichtman

Download or read book Predicting the Next President written by Allan J. Lichtman and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2024-07-01 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the days after Donald Trump’s unexpected victory on election night 2016, The New York Times, CNN, and other leading media outlets reached out to one of the few pundits who had correctly predicted the outcome, Allan J. Lichtman. While many election forecasters base their findings exclusively on public opinion polls, Lichtman looks at the underlying fundamentals that have driven every presidential election since 1860. Using his 13 historical factors or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), Lichtman had been predicting Trump’s win since September 2016. In the updated 2024 edition, he applies the keys to every presidential election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2024 race. In doing so, he dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. An indispensable resource for political junkies!

Understanding Elections through Statistics

Author : Ole J. Forsberg
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000205746
Total Pages : 209 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (2 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Understanding Elections through Statistics by : Ole J. Forsberg

Download or read book Understanding Elections through Statistics written by Ole J. Forsberg and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-11-02 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Elections are random events. From individuals deciding whether to vote, to people deciding for whom to vote, to election authorities deciding what to count, the outcomes of competitive democratic elections are rarely known until election day...or beyond. Understanding Elections through Statistics: Polling, Prediction, and Testing explores this random phenomenon from two points of view: predicting the election outcome using opinion polls and testing the election outcome using government-reported data. Written for those with only a brief introduction to statistics, this book takes you on a statistical journey from how polls are taken to how they can—and should—be used to estimate current popular opinion. Once an understanding of the election process is built, we turn toward testing elections for evidence of unfairness. While holding elections has become the de facto proof of government legitimacy, those electoral processes may hide a dirty little secret of the government illicitly ensuring a favorable election outcome. This book includes these features designed to make your statistical journey more enjoyable: Vignettes of elections, including maps, to provide concrete bases for the material In-chapter cues to help one avoid the heavy math—or to focus on it End-of-chapter problems designed to review and extend that which was covered in the chapter Many opportunities to turn the power of the R statistical environment to the enclosed election data files, as well as to those you find interesting From these features, it is clear the audience for this book is quite diverse. This text provides mathematics for those interested in mathematics, but also offers detours for those who just want a good read and a deeper understanding of elections. Author Ole J. Forsberg holds PhDs in both political science and statistics. He currently teaches mathematics and statistics in the Department of Mathematics at Knox College in Galesburg, IL.

How to Predict Elections

Author : Louis Hyman Bean
Publisher : Praeger
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 214 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis How to Predict Elections by : Louis Hyman Bean

Download or read book How to Predict Elections written by Louis Hyman Bean and published by Praeger. This book was released on 1948 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Keys to the White House

Author : Allan J. Lichtman
Publisher : Lexington Books
ISBN 13 : 9780739112656
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (126 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis The Keys to the White House by : Allan J. Lichtman

Download or read book The Keys to the White House written by Allan J. Lichtman and published by Lexington Books. This book was released on 2005 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prominent political analyst and historian Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or keys that have successfully predicted the outcome of presidential elections from 1860 to 2004. Read this book not only for a surprising look at the electoral process, but also for tips on calling the election in 2008.

Forecasting Elections

Author : Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 184 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Forecasting Elections by : Michael S. Lewis-Beck

Download or read book Forecasting Elections written by Michael S. Lewis-Beck and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: All political scientists aim to explain politics. In addition to this goal, Michael Lewis-Beck and Tom Rice aim to forecast political events, specifically election results. In "Forecasting Elections" the authors systematically develop easy-to-understand models based on national economic and political measures to forecast eleciton results for the U.S. presidency, House of Representatives, Senate, governorships, and state legislatures. For comparative purposes, the more complex French electoral system is studied. In the final chapter the authors instruct readers on how to use the models to make their own forecasts of future elections. -- From publisher's description.

Web Information Systems Engineering -- WISE 2014

Author : Boualem Benatallah
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319117467
Total Pages : 579 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (191 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Web Information Systems Engineering -- WISE 2014 by : Boualem Benatallah

Download or read book Web Information Systems Engineering -- WISE 2014 written by Boualem Benatallah and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-09-11 with total page 579 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the proceedings of the 15th International Conference on Web Information Systems Engineering, WISE 2014, held in Thessaloniki, Greece, in October 2014. The 52 full papers, 16 short and 14 poster papers, presented in the two-volume proceedings LNCS 8786 and 8787 were carefully reviewed and selected from 196 submissions. They are organized in topical sections named: Web mining, modeling and classification; Web querying and searching; Web recommendation and personalization; semantic Web; social online networks; software architectures amd platforms; Web technologies and frameworks; Web innovation and applications; and challenge.

Advances In Pattern Recognition And Artificial Intelligence

Author : Marleah Blom
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9811239029
Total Pages : 277 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (112 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Advances In Pattern Recognition And Artificial Intelligence by : Marleah Blom

Download or read book Advances In Pattern Recognition And Artificial Intelligence written by Marleah Blom and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2021-11-16 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book includes reviewed papers by international scholars from the 2020 International Conference on Pattern Recognition and Artificial Intelligence (held online). The papers have been expanded to provide more details specifically for the book. It is geared to promote ongoing interest and understanding about pattern recognition and artificial intelligence. Like the previous book in the series, this book covers a range of topics and illustrates potential areas where pattern recognition and artificial intelligence can be applied. It highlights, for example, how pattern recognition and artificial intelligence can be used to classify, predict, detect and help promote further discoveries related to credit scores, criminal news, national elections, license plates, gender, personality characteristics, health, and more.Chapters include works centred on medical and financial applications as well as topics related to handwriting analysis and text processing, internet security, image analysis, database creation, neural networks and deep learning. While the book is geared to promote interest from the general public, it may also be of interest to graduate students and researchers in the field.

The Timeline of Presidential Elections

Author : Robert S. Erikson
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226922162
Total Pages : 221 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (269 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis The Timeline of Presidential Elections by : Robert S. Erikson

Download or read book The Timeline of Presidential Elections written by Robert S. Erikson and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2012-08-24 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.

Who Will be in the White House?

Author : Randall J. Jones
Publisher : Longman Publishing Group
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 188 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Who Will be in the White House? by : Randall J. Jones

Download or read book Who Will be in the White House? written by Randall J. Jones and published by Longman Publishing Group. This book was released on 2002 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presenting models for making predictions about presidential elections, this brief supplementary text is accessible to students without a statistical background and features discussions of Election 2000 throughout. Well-grounded in elections theory, this new text introduces students to the major models used to forecast presidential elections and covers a variety of topics through that lens: approval ratings, exit polls, election cycles, nomination process and campaigns, performance of the economy, etc. Lucidly written, it offers an abundance of figures to illustrate concepts to students and include an easy-to-understand explanation of regression so that no prior knowledge of statistics is necessary to read the text. Professor Jones not only summarizes and utilizes the forecasting techniques employed by experts in the past, but brings in new techniques and tools, making a valuable contribution to the methodologies of presidential election forecasting.

Politics and Big Data

Author : Andrea Ceron
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
ISBN 13 : 1317134141
Total Pages : 189 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (171 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Politics and Big Data by : Andrea Ceron

Download or read book Politics and Big Data written by Andrea Ceron and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2016-12-19 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The importance of social media as a way to monitor an electoral campaign is well established. Day-by-day, hour-by-hour evaluation of the evolution of online ideas and opinion allows observers and scholars to monitor trends and momentum in public opinion well before traditional polls. However, there are difficulties in recording and analyzing often brief, unverified comments while the unequal age, gender, social and racial representation among social media users can produce inaccurate forecasts of final polls. Reviewing the different techniques employed using social media to nowcast and forecast elections, this book assesses its achievements and limitations while presenting a new technique of "sentiment analysis" to improve upon them. The authors carry out a meta-analysis of the existing literature to show the conditions under which social media-based electoral forecasts prove most accurate while new case studies from France, the United States and Italy demonstrate how much more accurate "sentiment analysis" can prove.

Forecasting Presidential Elections

Author : Steven J. Rosenstone
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780300026917
Total Pages : 211 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (269 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Forecasting Presidential Elections by : Steven J. Rosenstone

Download or read book Forecasting Presidential Elections written by Steven J. Rosenstone and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Describes a method for analyzing the forces that influence election results and predicting the outcome of elections for the president of the United States

A Behavioral Theory of Elections

Author : Jonathan Bendor
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 069113507X
Total Pages : 268 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis A Behavioral Theory of Elections by : Jonathan Bendor

Download or read book A Behavioral Theory of Elections written by Jonathan Bendor and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-02-06 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most theories of elections assume that voters and political actors are fully rational. This title provides a behavioral theory of elections based on the notion that all actors - politicians as well as voters - are only boundedly rational.

The Keys to the White House

Author : Allan Lichtman
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
ISBN 13 : 1461644577
Total Pages : 219 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (616 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis The Keys to the White House by : Allan Lichtman

Download or read book The Keys to the White House written by Allan Lichtman and published by Rowman & Littlefield Publishers. This book was released on 2008-02-15 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President, average citizens are giving the pollsters and pundits a run for their money. In this book, prominent political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or "keys" (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections. In the chronological, successful application of these keys to every election since 1860—including the 2000 election where Al Gore was predicted to and did indeed win the popular vote, and the 2004 contest for Bush's reelection—Lichtman dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. Scholars of the electoral process, their students, and general readers who want to get a head-start on calling Decision 2008 should not miss this book.

Methods of Forecasting American Election Outcomes

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780773422070
Total Pages : 179 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (22 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Methods of Forecasting American Election Outcomes by :

Download or read book Methods of Forecasting American Election Outcomes written by and published by . This book was released on 2014-05-14 with total page 179 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This interdisciplinary monograph analyzes presidential and legislative elections themes. Topics covered in the work include a critical discussion of all the forecasting models used in the past 20 years, and an examination of the forecasting of Presidential elections from an engineering and mathematical point of view, and actual mathematical equations between predicted votes and the polls.

Introduction to Data Science

Author : Rafael A. Irizarry
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000708039
Total Pages : 794 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (7 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Introduction to Data Science by : Rafael A. Irizarry

Download or read book Introduction to Data Science written by Rafael A. Irizarry and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-11-20 with total page 794 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction to Data Science: Data Analysis and Prediction Algorithms with R introduces concepts and skills that can help you tackle real-world data analysis challenges. It covers concepts from probability, statistical inference, linear regression, and machine learning. It also helps you develop skills such as R programming, data wrangling, data visualization, predictive algorithm building, file organization with UNIX/Linux shell, version control with Git and GitHub, and reproducible document preparation. This book is a textbook for a first course in data science. No previous knowledge of R is necessary, although some experience with programming may be helpful. The book is divided into six parts: R, data visualization, statistics with R, data wrangling, machine learning, and productivity tools. Each part has several chapters meant to be presented as one lecture. The author uses motivating case studies that realistically mimic a data scientist’s experience. He starts by asking specific questions and answers these through data analysis so concepts are learned as a means to answering the questions. Examples of the case studies included are: US murder rates by state, self-reported student heights, trends in world health and economics, the impact of vaccines on infectious disease rates, the financial crisis of 2007-2008, election forecasting, building a baseball team, image processing of hand-written digits, and movie recommendation systems. The statistical concepts used to answer the case study questions are only briefly introduced, so complementing with a probability and statistics textbook is highly recommended for in-depth understanding of these concepts. If you read and understand the chapters and complete the exercises, you will be prepared to learn the more advanced concepts and skills needed to become an expert.

How Voters Decide

Author : Richard R. Lau
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139456865
Total Pages : 15 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis How Voters Decide by : Richard R. Lau

Download or read book How Voters Decide written by Richard R. Lau and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-06-26 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book attempts to redirect the field of voting behavior research by proposing a paradigm-shifting framework for studying voter decision making. An innovative experimental methodology is presented for getting 'inside the heads' of citizens as they confront the overwhelming rush of information from modern presidential election campaigns. Four broad theoretically-defined types of decision strategies that voters employ to help decide which candidate to support are described and operationally-defined. Individual and campaign-related factors that lead voters to adopt one or another of these strategies are examined. Most importantly, this research proposes a new normative focus for the scientific study of voting behavior: we should care about not just which candidate received the most votes, but also how many citizens voted correctly - that is, in accordance with their own fully-informed preferences.