How To Predict Elections

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Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition

Author : Ray Fair
Publisher : Stanford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0804778027
Total Pages : 234 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (47 download)

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Book Synopsis Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition by : Ray Fair

Download or read book Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition written by Ray Fair and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2011-12-14 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "It's the economy, stupid," as Democratic strategist James Carville would say. After many years of study, Ray C. Fair has found that the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. Just in time for the 2012 presidential election, this new edition of his classic text, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, provides us with a look into the likely future of our nation's political landscape—but Fair doesn't stop there. Fair puts other national issues under the microscope as well—including congressional elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation. In addition he covers topics well beyond today's headlines, as the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest such as wine quality, predicting football games, and aging effects in baseball. Which of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? Read Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things and find out! As Fair works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, he teaches and delights. The discussion that underlies each chapter topic moves from formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. At the end of this book, readers will walk away with more than mere predictions. They will have learned a new approach to thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life, and will have a myriad of fun facts to share.

Forecasting Elections

Author : Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 184 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Elections by : Michael S. Lewis-Beck

Download or read book Forecasting Elections written by Michael S. Lewis-Beck and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: All political scientists aim to explain politics. In addition to this goal, Michael Lewis-Beck and Tom Rice aim to forecast political events, specifically election results. In "Forecasting Elections" the authors systematically develop easy-to-understand models based on national economic and political measures to forecast eleciton results for the U.S. presidency, House of Representatives, Senate, governorships, and state legislatures. For comparative purposes, the more complex French electoral system is studied. In the final chapter the authors instruct readers on how to use the models to make their own forecasts of future elections. -- From publisher's description.

The Timeline of Presidential Elections

Author : Robert S. Erikson
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226922162
Total Pages : 221 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (269 download)

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Book Synopsis The Timeline of Presidential Elections by : Robert S. Erikson

Download or read book The Timeline of Presidential Elections written by Robert S. Erikson and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2012-08-24 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.

How to Predict Elections

Author : Louis Hyman Bean
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781258482701
Total Pages : 204 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (827 download)

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Book Synopsis How to Predict Elections by : Louis Hyman Bean

Download or read book How to Predict Elections written by Louis Hyman Bean and published by . This book was released on 2012-09-01 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Advances In Pattern Recognition And Artificial Intelligence

Author : Marleah Blom
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9811239029
Total Pages : 277 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (112 download)

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Book Synopsis Advances In Pattern Recognition And Artificial Intelligence by : Marleah Blom

Download or read book Advances In Pattern Recognition And Artificial Intelligence written by Marleah Blom and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2021-11-16 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book includes reviewed papers by international scholars from the 2020 International Conference on Pattern Recognition and Artificial Intelligence (held online). The papers have been expanded to provide more details specifically for the book. It is geared to promote ongoing interest and understanding about pattern recognition and artificial intelligence. Like the previous book in the series, this book covers a range of topics and illustrates potential areas where pattern recognition and artificial intelligence can be applied. It highlights, for example, how pattern recognition and artificial intelligence can be used to classify, predict, detect and help promote further discoveries related to credit scores, criminal news, national elections, license plates, gender, personality characteristics, health, and more.Chapters include works centred on medical and financial applications as well as topics related to handwriting analysis and text processing, internet security, image analysis, database creation, neural networks and deep learning. While the book is geared to promote interest from the general public, it may also be of interest to graduate students and researchers in the field.

Teaching Statistics

Author : Andrew Gelman
Publisher : OUP Oxford
ISBN 13 : 0191606995
Total Pages : 353 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (916 download)

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Book Synopsis Teaching Statistics by : Andrew Gelman

Download or read book Teaching Statistics written by Andrew Gelman and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2002-08-08 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Students in the sciences, economics, psychology, social sciences, and medicine take introductory statistics. Statistics is increasingly offered at the high school level as well. However, statistics can be notoriously difficult to teach as it is seen by many students as difficult and boring, if not irrelevant to their subject of choice. To help dispel these misconceptions, Gelman and Nolan have put together this fascinating and thought-provoking book. Based on years of teaching experience the book provides a wealth of demonstrations, examples and projects that involve active student participation. Part I of the book presents a large selection of activities for introductory statistics courses and combines chapters such as, 'First week of class', with exercises to break the ice and get students talking; then 'Descriptive statistics' , collecting and displaying data; then follows the traditional topics - linear regression, data collection, probability and inference. Part II gives tips on what does and what doesn't work in class: how to set up effective demonstrations and examples, how to encourage students to participate in class and work effectively in group projects. A sample course plan is provided. Part III presents material for more advanced courses on topics such as decision theory, Bayesian statistics and sampling.

Politics and Big Data

Author : Andrea Ceron
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317134133
Total Pages : 196 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (171 download)

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Book Synopsis Politics and Big Data by : Andrea Ceron

Download or read book Politics and Big Data written by Andrea Ceron and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-12-19 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The importance of social media as a way to monitor an electoral campaign is well established. Day-by-day, hour-by-hour evaluation of the evolution of online ideas and opinion allows observers and scholars to monitor trends and momentum in public opinion well before traditional polls. However, there are difficulties in recording and analyzing often brief, unverified comments while the unequal age, gender, social and racial representation among social media users can produce inaccurate forecasts of final polls. Reviewing the different techniques employed using social media to nowcast and forecast elections, this book assesses its achievements and limitations while presenting a new technique of "sentiment analysis" to improve upon them. The authors carry out a meta-analysis of the existing literature to show the conditions under which social media-based electoral forecasts prove most accurate while new case studies from France, the United States and Italy demonstrate how much more accurate "sentiment analysis" can prove.

A Behavioral Theory of Elections

Author : Jonathan Bendor
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 069113507X
Total Pages : 268 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)

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Book Synopsis A Behavioral Theory of Elections by : Jonathan Bendor

Download or read book A Behavioral Theory of Elections written by Jonathan Bendor and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-02-06 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most theories of elections assume that voters and political actors are fully rational. This title provides a behavioral theory of elections based on the notion that all actors - politicians as well as voters - are only boundedly rational.

The 2016 Presidential Election

Author : Amnon Cavari
Publisher : Lexington Books
ISBN 13 : 1498557376
Total Pages : 277 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (985 download)

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Book Synopsis The 2016 Presidential Election by : Amnon Cavari

Download or read book The 2016 Presidential Election written by Amnon Cavari and published by Lexington Books. This book was released on 2017-10-04 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 2016 Presidential Election: The Causes and Consequences of a Political Earthquake critically analyzes the 2016 presidential election. The chapters in this book identify key factors behind the election of Donald J. Trump, explore the unconventional campaign, analyze the unexpected election result, evaluate the forecasting models, and speculate on the effect of the election outcome on politics and governance in the Trump Administration.

The American Voter Revisited

Author : Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Publisher : University of Michigan Press
ISBN 13 : 0472025139
Total Pages : 514 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (72 download)

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Book Synopsis The American Voter Revisited by : Michael S. Lewis-Beck

Download or read book The American Voter Revisited written by Michael S. Lewis-Beck and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2009-12-18 with total page 514 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today we are politically polarized as never before. The presidential elections of 2000 and 2004 will be remembered as two of the most contentious political events in American history. Yet despite the recent election upheaval, The American Voter Revisited discovers that voter behavior has been remarkably consistent over the last half century. And if the authors are correct in their predictions, 2008 will show just how reliably the American voter weighs in, election after election. The American Voter Revisited re-creates the outstanding 1960 classic The American Voter---which was based on the presidential elections of 1952 and 1956---following the same format, theory, and mode of analysis as the original. In this new volume, the authors test the ideas and methods of the original against presidential election surveys from 2000 and 2004. Surprisingly, the contemporary American voter is found to behave politically much like voters of the 1950s. "Simply essential. For generations, serious students of American politics have kept The American Voter right on their desk. Now, everyone will keep The American Voter Revisited right next to it." ---Larry J. Sabato, Director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics and author of A More Perfect Constitution "The American Voter Revisited is destined to be the definitive volume on American electoral behavior for decades. It is a timely book for 2008, with in-depth analyses of the 2000 and 2004 elections updating and extending the findings of the original The American Voter. It is also quite accessible, making it ideal for graduate students as well as advanced undergrads." ---Andrew E. Smith, Director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center "A theoretically faithful, empirically innovative, comprehensive update of the original classic." ---Sam Popkin, Professor of Political Science, University of California, San Diego Michael S. Lewis-Beck is F. Wendell Miller Distinguished Professor of Political Science at the University of Iowa. William G. Jacoby is Professor of Political Science at Michigan State University. Helmut Norpoth is Professor of Political Science at Stony Brook University. Herbert F. Weisberg is Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University.

Introduction to Data Science

Author : Rafael A. Irizarry
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000708039
Total Pages : 836 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Introduction to Data Science by : Rafael A. Irizarry

Download or read book Introduction to Data Science written by Rafael A. Irizarry and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-11-20 with total page 836 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction to Data Science: Data Analysis and Prediction Algorithms with R introduces concepts and skills that can help you tackle real-world data analysis challenges. It covers concepts from probability, statistical inference, linear regression, and machine learning. It also helps you develop skills such as R programming, data wrangling, data visualization, predictive algorithm building, file organization with UNIX/Linux shell, version control with Git and GitHub, and reproducible document preparation. This book is a textbook for a first course in data science. No previous knowledge of R is necessary, although some experience with programming may be helpful. The book is divided into six parts: R, data visualization, statistics with R, data wrangling, machine learning, and productivity tools. Each part has several chapters meant to be presented as one lecture. The author uses motivating case studies that realistically mimic a data scientist’s experience. He starts by asking specific questions and answers these through data analysis so concepts are learned as a means to answering the questions. Examples of the case studies included are: US murder rates by state, self-reported student heights, trends in world health and economics, the impact of vaccines on infectious disease rates, the financial crisis of 2007-2008, election forecasting, building a baseball team, image processing of hand-written digits, and movie recommendation systems. The statistical concepts used to answer the case study questions are only briefly introduced, so complementing with a probability and statistics textbook is highly recommended for in-depth understanding of these concepts. If you read and understand the chapters and complete the exercises, you will be prepared to learn the more advanced concepts and skills needed to become an expert.

A Quantitative Tour of the Social Sciences

Author : Andrew Gelman
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 0521861985
Total Pages : 369 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (218 download)

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Book Synopsis A Quantitative Tour of the Social Sciences by : Andrew Gelman

Download or read book A Quantitative Tour of the Social Sciences written by Andrew Gelman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-04-06 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, prominent social scientists describe quantitative models in economics, history, sociology, political science, and psychology.

Presidential Mandates

Author : Patricia Heidotting Conley
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 9780226114828
Total Pages : 248 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (148 download)

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Book Synopsis Presidential Mandates by : Patricia Heidotting Conley

Download or read book Presidential Mandates written by Patricia Heidotting Conley and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2001-07-15 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presidents have claimed popular mandates for more than 150 years. How can they make such claims when surveys show that voters are uninformed about the issues? In this groundbreaking book, Patricia Conley argues that mandates are not mere statements of fact about the preferences of voters. By examining election outcomes from the politicians' viewpoint, Conley uncovers the inferences and strategies—the politics—that translate those outcomes into the national policy agenda. Presidents claim mandates, Conley shows, only when they can mobilize voters and members of Congress to make a major policy change: the margin of victory, the voting behavior of specific groups, and the composition of Congress all affect their decisions. Using data on elections since 1828 and case studies from Truman to Clinton, she demonstrates that it is possible to accurately predict which presidents will ask for major policy changes at the start of their term. Ultimately, she provides a new understanding of the concept of mandates by changing how we think about the relationship between elections and policy-making.

Capturing Campaign Effects

Author : Henry E. Brady
Publisher : University of Michigan Press
ISBN 13 : 0472023039
Total Pages : 406 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (72 download)

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Book Synopsis Capturing Campaign Effects by : Henry E. Brady

Download or read book Capturing Campaign Effects written by Henry E. Brady and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2009-09-23 with total page 406 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Capturing Campaign Effects is the definitive study to date of the influence of campaigns on political culture. Comprising a broad exploration of campaign factors (debates, news coverage, advertising, and polls) and their effects (priming, learning, and persuasion), as well as an impressive survey of techniques for the collection and analysis of campaign data, Capturing Campaign Effects examines different kinds of campaigns in the U.S. and abroad and presents strong evidence for significant campaign effects. "Capturing Campaign Effects is an accessible and penetrating account of modern scholarship on electoral politics. It draws critical insights from a range of innovative analyses." --Arthur Lupia, University of Michigan "What a wonderful way to usher in the new era of election studies! This book spotlights fascinating paradoxes in the literature of voting behavior, highlights many promising approaches to resolving those paradoxes, and shows how these strategies can yield important findings with terrific payoffs for our understanding of contemporary democracy. Fasten your seatbelts, folks: scholarship on elections is about to speed up thanks to this collection of great essays." --Jon Krosnick, Stanford University "The past decade has seen a renewed interest in understanding campaign effects. How and when do voters learn? Does the election campaign even matter at all? Capturing Campaign Effects draws on leading political scientists to address these matters. The result is a collection that will become the major reference for the study of campaigns. The lesson that emerges is that campaigns do affect voter decision making, usually for the better." --Robert S. Erikson, Columbia University Henry E. Brady is Class of 1941 Monroe Deutsch Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, and Director of the Survey Research Center at the University of California, Berkeley. Richard Johnston is Professor and Head of Political Science and Distinguished University Scholar at the University of British Columbia.

The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior

Author : Jan E. Leighley
Publisher : Oxford University Press (UK)
ISBN 13 : 0199604517
Total Pages : 796 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (996 download)

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Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior by : Jan E. Leighley

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior written by Jan E. Leighley and published by Oxford University Press (UK). This book was released on 2012-02-16 with total page 796 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Oxford Handbooks of American Politics are the essential guide to the study of American political life in the 21st Century. With engaging contributions from the major figures in the field The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior provides the key point of reference for anyone working in American Politics today

Inside the Campaign Finance Battle

Author : Anthony Corrado
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 : 9780815715849
Total Pages : 512 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (158 download)

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Book Synopsis Inside the Campaign Finance Battle by : Anthony Corrado

Download or read book Inside the Campaign Finance Battle written by Anthony Corrado and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2004-05-26 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2002 Congress enacted the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA), the first major revision of federal campaign finance law in a generation. In March 2001, after a fiercely contested and highly divisive seven-year partisan legislative battle, the Senate passed S. 27, known as the McCain-Feingold legislation. The House responded by passing H.R. 2356, companion legislation known as Shays-Meehan, in February 2002. The Senate then approved the House-passed version, and President George W. Bush signed BCRA into law on March 27, 2002, stating that the bill had "flaws" but overall "improves the current system of financing for federal campaigns." The Reform Act was taken to court within hours of the President's signature. Dozens of interest groups and lawmakers who had opposed passage of the Act in Congress lodged complaints that challenged the constitutionality of virtually every aspect of the new law. Following review by a special three-judge panel, the case is expected to reach the U.S. Supreme Court in 2003. This litigation constitutes the most important campaign finance case since the Supreme Court issued its decision in Buckley v. Valeo more than twenty-five years ago. The testimony, submitted by some of the country's most knowledgeable political scientists and most experienced politicians, constitutes an invaluable body of knowledge about the complexities of campaign finance and the role of money in our political system. Unfortunately, only the lawyers, political scientists, and practitioners actually involved in the litigation have seen most of this writing—until now. Ins ide the Campaign Finance Battle makes key testimony in this historic case available to a general readership, in the process shedding new light on campaign finance practices central to the congressional debate on the reform act and to the landmark litigation challenging its constitutionality.

Securing the Vote

Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 030947647X
Total Pages : 181 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (94 download)

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Book Synopsis Securing the Vote by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Download or read book Securing the Vote written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2018-09-30 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the 2016 presidential election, America's election infrastructure was targeted by actors sponsored by the Russian government. Securing the Vote: Protecting American Democracy examines the challenges arising out of the 2016 federal election, assesses current technology and standards for voting, and recommends steps that the federal government, state and local governments, election administrators, and vendors of voting technology should take to improve the security of election infrastructure. In doing so, the report provides a vision of voting that is more secure, accessible, reliable, and verifiable.