How Important Are Inflation Expectations In Driving Asian Inflation

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Inflation Expectations

Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Inflation and Deflation in East Asia

Author : Frank Rövekamp
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031279492
Total Pages : 180 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (312 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation and Deflation in East Asia by : Frank Rövekamp

Download or read book Inflation and Deflation in East Asia written by Frank Rövekamp and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-05-13 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In light of the deflationary trends following the 2008/2009 financial crisis, as well as the return of inflation triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, this book offers insights into price stability issues in various East Asian countries. Leading scholars from the fields of economics and law as well as central bank practitioners present case studies on Japan, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. The contributors address topics such as quantitative monetary easing, the role of global and domestic shocks on inflation dynamics, and other monetary policy issues. In doing so, the book goes into detail about the individual forces and effects of deflation and inflation and compares the Asian experience with that of the Eurozone.

Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies

Author : Jongrim Ha
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464813760
Total Pages : 524 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies by : Jongrim Ha

Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 524 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.

Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies

Author : Geraldine Dany-Knedlik
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484363043
Total Pages : 37 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies by : Geraldine Dany-Knedlik

Download or read book Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies written by Geraldine Dany-Knedlik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-21 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the evolution of inflation dynamics in the five largest ASEAN countries between 1997 and 2017. To account for changes in the monetary policy frameworks since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), the analysis is based on country-specific Phillips curves allowing for time-varying parameters. The paper finds evidence of a higher degree of forward-looking dynamics and a better anchoring of inflation expectations, consistent with the improvements in monetary policy frameworks in the region. In contrast, the quantitative impact of cyclical fluctuations and import prices has gradually diminished over time.

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Asia Pacific

Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 148435432X
Total Pages : 77 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Asia Pacific by : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Asia Pacific written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-05-09 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Asia is expected to grow by about 51⁄2 percent this year, accounting for nearly two-thirds of global growth, and the region remains the world’s most dynamic by a considerable margin. But despite the strong outlook, policymakers must remain vigilant. While risks around the forecast are broadly balanced for now, they are skewed firmly to the downside over the medium term. Key risks include those of further market corrections—possibly triggered by inflation surprises and/or faster-than-expected monetary tightening in advanced economies—a shift toward protectionist policies, and an increase in geopolitical tensions.

The ASEAN Way

Author : Ms.Ana Corbacho
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513558900
Total Pages : 311 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis The ASEAN Way by : Ms.Ana Corbacho

Download or read book The ASEAN Way written by Ms.Ana Corbacho and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-10-02 with total page 311 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first part of the book examines the evolution of monetary policy and prudential frameworks of the ASEAN5, with particular focus on changes since the Asian financial crisis and the more recent period of unconventional monetary policy in advanced economies. The second part of the book looks at policy responses to global financial spillovers. The third and last part of the book elaborates on the challenges ahead for monetary policy, financial stability frameworks, and the deepening of financial markets.

The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation

Author : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1616356154
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (163 download)

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Book Synopsis The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation by : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar

Download or read book The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.

Asian Development Outlook 2020

Author : Asian Development Bank
Publisher : Asian Development Bank
ISBN 13 : 9292621564
Total Pages : 737 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (926 download)

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Book Synopsis Asian Development Outlook 2020 by : Asian Development Bank

Download or read book Asian Development Outlook 2020 written by Asian Development Bank and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2020-04-01 with total page 737 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After a disappointing 2019, growth prospects in developing Asia have worsened under the impact of the current health crisis. Signs of incipient recovery near the turn of this year were quickly overthrown as COVID-19 broke out in January 2020 in the region’s largest economy and subsequently expanded into a global pandemic. Disruption to regional and global supply chains, trade, and tourism, and the continued spread of the outbreak, leave the region reeling under massive economic shocks and financial turmoil. Across Asia, the authorities are responding with policies to contain the outbreak, facilitate medical interventions, and support vulnerable businesses and households. Assuming that the outbreak is contained this year, growth is expected to recover in 2021. Especially to face down fundamental threats such as the current medical emergency, innovation is critical to growth and development. As some economies in developing Asia challenge the innovation frontier, many others lag. More and better innovation is needed in the region to sustain growth that is more inclusive and environmentally sustainable. Five key drivers of innovation are sound education, productive entrepreneurship, high-quality institutions, efficient financial systems, and dynamic cities that excite knowledge exchange. The journey to creating an innovative society takes long-term commitment and hard work.

The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations

Author : Tobias F. Rötheli
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781316987056
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (87 download)

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Book Synopsis The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations by : Tobias F. Rötheli

Download or read book The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations written by Tobias F. Rötheli and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The notion that expectations play a key role in economic decision making is a very old one. Over the past 100 years, major advances in the application of this insight in the formulation of economic models have been made in various subfields of economics. The concept of extrapolation, the idea that past observations of a series are the basis for making projections into the future, was present from the start of the modeling of dynamic economic processes"--

Asian Development Outlook 2018

Author : Asian Development Bank
Publisher : Asian Development Bank
ISBN 13 : 9292611216
Total Pages : 650 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (926 download)

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Book Synopsis Asian Development Outlook 2018 by : Asian Development Bank

Download or read book Asian Development Outlook 2018 written by Asian Development Bank and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2018-04-01 with total page 650 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The annual Asian Development Outlook analyzes economic performance in the past year and offers forecasts for the next 2 years for the 45 economies in Asia and the Pacific that make up developing Asia. Growth prospects in the region are upbeat, buoyed by favorable demand at home and abroad. A strong performance in 2017 reflected a surge in exports, which will likely abate this year and next, and rapidly expanding domestic demand. While the outlook is for steady growth, risks to it are decidedly on the downside: Trade friction could weaken recently deepened trade links, tightening US monetary policy could diminish investment in developing Asia, and rising domestic private debt may hamper growth. New technologies drive higher productivity, the foundation for economic growth, better-paid jobs, and poverty reduction. The latest technologies in robotics and artificial intelligence may threaten some jobs, however, and leave less-skilled workers behind. To maximize gains in productivity while safeguarding social welfare, governments in developing Asia should protect workers but not preserve particular jobs. Meanwhile, they should facilitate the countervailing forces in new technologies that generate new jobs. Dealing with the downsides of new technology requires synchronized effort on skills development, labor regulation, social protection, and income redistribution.

The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries

Author : Mr.Paul R. Masson
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 145185515X
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries by : Mr.Paul R. Masson

Download or read book The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries written by Mr.Paul R. Masson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-10-01 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation targeting (IT) serves as monetary policy framework in several advanced economies, where it has enhanced policy transparency and accountability. The paper considers its wider applicability to developing countries. The prerequisites for a successful IT framework are identified as an ability to carry out an independent monetary policy (free of fiscal dominance or commitment to another nominal anchor, like the exchange rate) and a quantitative framework linking policy instruments to inflation. These prerequisites are largely absent among developing countries, though several of them could with some further institutional changes and an overriding commitment to low inflation make use of an IT framework.

Sri Lanka

Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 41 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Sri Lanka by : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Download or read book Sri Lanka written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-11-11 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Selected Issues

Global Productivity

Author : Alistair Dieppe
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464816093
Total Pages : 552 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Productivity by : Alistair Dieppe

Download or read book Global Productivity written by Alistair Dieppe and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-06-09 with total page 552 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD

Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability

Author : Pierre-Richard Agénor
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781597821711
Total Pages : 120 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (217 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability by : Pierre-Richard Agénor

Download or read book Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis

Author : Lutz Kilian
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107196574
Total Pages : 757 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (71 download)

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Book Synopsis Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis by : Lutz Kilian

Download or read book Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis written by Lutz Kilian and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-11-23 with total page 757 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses the econometric foundations of structural vector autoregressive modeling, as used in empirical macroeconomics, finance, and related fields.

Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2023 Reviving Tourism Post-Pandemic

Author : OECD
Publisher : OECD Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9264782125
Total Pages : 264 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (647 download)

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Book Synopsis Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2023 Reviving Tourism Post-Pandemic by : OECD

Download or read book Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2023 Reviving Tourism Post-Pandemic written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2023-03-31 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 2023 edition discusses the region’s economic outlook and macroeconomic challenges at a time of great uncertainty and a slowdown of the global economy, in particular owing to inflationary pressures, capital flow volatility and supply-side bottlenecks. The thematic chapters focus on reviving tourism after the pandemic.

Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines

Author : Mr.Si Guo
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498319327
Total Pages : 20 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines by : Mr.Si Guo

Download or read book Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines written by Mr.Si Guo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-12 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation rates rose sharply in the Philippines during 2018. Understanding the demand and supply sources of inflation pressures is key to monetary policy response. Qualitatively, indicators have pointed to evidence of inflation pressures from both sides in 2018, with the supply factors, by and large, associated with commodity-price shocks and demand factors deduced from gleaning at the wider non-oil trade deficits seen in the Philippines. Quantitatively, we deploy a semi-structural model to decompose the contributions of various shocks to inflation. Our main findings are (1) supply factors (mainly global commodity prices) played a prominent role in explaining the rise in inflation in 2018; (2) demand factors also contributed to inflation in a non-negligible way, justifying the need for tighter monetary policy in 2018; (3) the size of the estimated output gap (an important indicator of demand pressures) could be larger, when considering the widening trade deficits in 2018; and (4) a delayed monetary policy tightening can be costly in terms of higher inflation rates, requiring larger and more aggressive interest rate hikes to bring inflation under control, based on a counterfactual exercise.