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Historical Cost Growth Of Completed Weapon System Programs
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Book Synopsis Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs by : Mark V. Arena
Download or read book Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs written by Mark V. Arena and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2006 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives." The purpose of the project is to improve the tools used to estimate the costs of future weapon systems. It focuses on how recent technical, management, and government policy changes affect cost. This report focuses on the accuracy of cost estimates. For our analysis, we used a very specific sample of Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) data, namely only programs that are complete or are nearly so. The analysis indicates a systematic bias toward underestimating the costs and substantial uncertainty in estimating the final cost of a weapon system. In contrast to the previous literature, the cost growth was higher than previously observed. We also found few correlations with cost growth, but observed that programs with longer duration had greater cost growth and electronics programs tended to have lower cost growth. Although there were some differences in the mean cost growth factors among the military departments, the differences were not statistically significant. While newer programs appear to have lower cost growth, this trend appears to be due to factors other than acquisition policies.
Book Synopsis Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs by :
Download or read book Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives." The report complements another document from this project, "Impossible Certainty: Cost Risk Analysis for Air Force Systems," and includes a literature review of cost growth studies and a more extensive analysis of the historical cost growth in acquisition programs than appears in the companion report. Overall, most of the studies reviewed reported that actual costs were greater than estimates of baseline costs. The most common metric used to measure cost growth is the cost growth factor (CGF), which is defined as the ratio of the actual cost to the estimated costs. A CGF of less than 1.0 indicates that the estimate was higher than the actual cost -- an underrun. When the CGF exceeds 1.0, the actual costs were higher than the estimate -- an overrun. Studies of weapon system cost growth have mainly relied on data from Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs). These reports are prepared annually by all major defense acquisition program (MDAP) offices within the military services to provide the U.S. Congress with cost, schedule, and performance status. The comparison baseline (estimate) typically corresponds to a major acquisition decision milestone. Prior studies have reported Milestone (MS) II CGFs for development costs ranging from 1.16 to 2.26; estimates of procurement CGFs ranging from 1.16 to 1.65; and total program CGFs ranging from 1.20 to 1.54. Regarding the differences among cost growth due to service, weapon, and time period, prior studies tended to find the following: Army weapon systems had higher cost growth than did weapon systems for the Air Force or Navy; cost growth differs by equipment type; and cost growth has declined from the 1960s and 1970s, after it was recognized as an important problem.
Book Synopsis Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth by : Joseph George Bolten
Download or read book Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth written by Joseph George Bolten and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2008 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous studies have shown that the Department of Defense (DoD) and the military departments have historically underestimated the cost of new weapon systems. Quantifying cost growth is important, but the larger issue is why cost growth occurs. To address that issue, this analysis uses data from Selected Acquisition Reports to examine 35 mature, but not necessarily complete, major defense acquisition programs similar to the type and complexity of those typically managed by the Air Force. The programs are first examined as a complete set, then Air Force and non-Air Force programs are analyzed separately to determine whether the causes of cost growth in the two groups differ. Four major sources of cost growth were identified: (1) errors in estimation and scheduling, (2) decisions made by the government, (3) financial matters, and (4) miscellaneous sources. Total (development plus procurement) cost growth, when measured as simple averages among the program set, is dominated by decisions, which account for more than two-thirds of the growth. Most decisions-related cost growth involves quantity changes (22 percent), requirements growth (13 percent), and schedule changes (9 percent). Cost estimation (10 percent) is the only large contributor in the errors category. Less than 4 percent of the overall cost growth is due to financial and miscellaneous causes. Because decisions involving changes in requirements, quantities, and production schedules dominate cost growth, program managers, service leadership, and Congress should look for ways to reduce changes in these areas.
Book Synopsis Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing? by : Obaid Younossi
Download or read book Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing? written by Obaid Younossi and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2007 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades, there have been numerous attempts to rein in the cost growth of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition programs. Cost growth is the ratio of the cost estimate reported in a program's final Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) and the cost-estimate baseline reported in a prior SAR issued at a particular milestone. Drawing on prior RAND research, new analyses of completed and ongoing weapon system programs, and data drawn from SARs, this study addresses the following questions: What is the cost growth of DoD weapon systems? What has been the trend of cost growth over the past three decades? To address the magnitude of cost growth, it examines cost growth in completed programs; to evaluate the cost growth trend over time, it provides additional analysis of a selection of ongoing programs. This sample of ongoing programs permits a look at growth trends in the more recent past. Changes in the mix of system types over time and dollar-weighted analysis were also considered because earlier studies have suggested that cost growth varies by program type and the cost of the program. The findings suggest that development cost growth over the past three decades has remained high and without any significant improvement.
Book Synopsis Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing? A Quantitative Assessment of Completed and Ongoing Programs by :
Download or read book Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing? A Quantitative Assessment of Completed and Ongoing Programs written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cost growth in DoD acquisition programs has been a long-standing concern of senior policymakers and members of Congress. In recent decades, there have been numerous attempts to rein in this growth. Some changes involve reforms to the acquisition process, while others entail legislation. The RAND Corporation has a long history of studying cost growth in defense acquisition, with research reaching back to the 1950s.
Book Synopsis Cost Growth in Weapon Systems by : Neil M. Singer
Download or read book Cost Growth in Weapon Systems written by Neil M. Singer and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis An Analysis of Weapon System Cost Growth by :
Download or read book An Analysis of Weapon System Cost Growth written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 97 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cost growth in weapon system development, one result of the inherent risk of developing advanced systems, has been a prevalent problem for many years. A systematic bias in cost estimates can undermine the basis of resource allocation decisions, an important problem in a tight budget environment. Currently DoD is in this situation. This exploratory research attempts to gain new insight into this old acquisition issue. In particular, our objectives were to quantify the magnitude of cost growth in weapon systems, and identify factors affecting cost growth. A better understanding of the scope of the cost growth problem would provide decisionmakers with an improved basis for mitigating cost growth. Insight into the drivers of cost growth might suggest policy alternatives appropriate to the goal of mitigating cost growth. This research uses a database composed of 197 major weapon systems reporting through the Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) process as of December 1990 to address these issues. While we have quantified the magnitude of weapon system cost growth along a number of dimensions, we could not definitively account for the observed cost growth patterns. Thus, no silver bullet policy option is available for mitigating cost growth.
Author :National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309675855 Total Pages :99 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (96 download)
Book Synopsis Weapons System Sustainment Planning Early in the Development Life Cycle by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Download or read book Weapons System Sustainment Planning Early in the Development Life Cycle written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2020-07-16 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: According to the Government Accountability Office, sustainment of weapon systems accounts for approximately 70 percent of the total life-cycle costs. When sustainment is not considered early in the development process or as an integral part of the systems engineering design, it can negatively affect the ability of the Air Force to maintain and improve the weapon system once it enters service. At the request of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics, Weapons Systems Sustainment Planning Early in the Development Life Cycle identifies at what point or phase of the development of a weapons system sustainment planning should be integrated into the program; examines and provides recommendations regarding how sustainment planning should be evaluated throughout the development process; investigates and describes the current challenges with sustainment planning and determines what changes have occurred throughout the acquisition process that may have eroded sustainment planning; and identifies opportunities for acquisitions offices to gain greater access to sustainment expertise.
Book Synopsis Defense Acquisitions by : Michael J. Sullivan
Download or read book Defense Acquisitions written by Michael J. Sullivan and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2008-10 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The DoD expects the cost to develop and procure the major weapon systems in its portfolio to total $1.6 trill. With increased competition for funding within DoD and across the fed. gov¿t., effectively managing these acquisitions is critical. Yet DoD programs often experience poor outcomes -- like increased costs and delayed fielding of needed capabilities. In 2006, a report was issued on DoD¿s processes for identifying needs and allocating resources for its weapon system programs. In 2007, it was reported that DoD consistently commits to more programs than it can support. This report assesses DoD¿s funding approach, identifies factors that influence the effectiveness of this approach, and identifies practices that could help improve DoD¿s approach.
Book Synopsis Defense Acquisitions: DoD Must Balance Its Needs with Available Resources and Follow an Incremental Approach to Acquiring Weapon Systems by : Michael J. Sullivan
Download or read book Defense Acquisitions: DoD Must Balance Its Needs with Available Resources and Follow an Incremental Approach to Acquiring Weapon Systems written by Michael J. Sullivan and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2009-08 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A broad consensus exists that weapon system problems are serious, but efforts at reform have had limited impact. Last year, it was reported that DoD's portfolio of weapon programs experienced cost growth of $295 billion from first estimates, were delayed by an average of 21 months, and delivered fewer quantities and capabilities to the war-fighter than originally planned. This testimony describes the systemic problems that contribute to the cost, schedule, and performance problems in weapon system programs, recent actions that DoD has taken to address these problems, proposed reform legislation that has recently been introduced, and additional steps needed to improve future performance of acquisition programs. Charts and tables.
Author :United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Governmental Affairs Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :160 pages Book Rating :4.0/5 (17 download)
Book Synopsis Management of the Department of Defense: Cost estimating and cost reporting in DOD weapon programs by : United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Governmental Affairs
Download or read book Management of the Department of Defense: Cost estimating and cost reporting in DOD weapon programs written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Governmental Affairs and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Systems Engineering and Program Management by : David E. Stem
Download or read book Systems Engineering and Program Management written by David E. Stem and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2006 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Systems engineering and program management (SE/PM) constitute a large portion of the acquisition cost of military aircraft and guided weapons systems. The goal of this study was the development of a set of cost-estimating relationships that can be used to estimate the SE/PM cost element for development and production of aircraft and weapons programs. The authors canvassed government and industry personnel to learn about current techniques for estimating SE/PM costs, and they collected historical data from several aircraft and weapons programs to investigate trends in SE/PM costs over time and to generate methods that cost analysts can use early in the life cycle of a program when little cost information is available. The authors also investigated the effects on SE/PM costs from acquisition reform, including the reduction in the number of military specifications and standards, the use of integrated product and process teams, and the trend toward "evolutionary acquisition." This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND monographs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Book jacket.
Author :United States. Congress. House. Committee on Armed Services. Special Panel on Defense Procurement Procedures Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :70 pages Book Rating :4.F/5 ( download)
Book Synopsis Weapons Acquisition Policy and Procedures by : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Armed Services. Special Panel on Defense Procurement Procedures
Download or read book Weapons Acquisition Policy and Procedures written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Armed Services. Special Panel on Defense Procurement Procedures and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Defense Acquisitions by : Gene L. Dodaro
Download or read book Defense Acquisitions written by Gene L. Dodaro and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report examines how well DoD is planning and executing its weapon acquisition programs. The report includes: (1) an analysis of the overall performance of DoD's 2008 portfolio of 96 major defense acquisition programs and a comparison to the portfolio performance at two other points in time -- 5 years ago and 1 year ago; (2) an analysis of current cost and schedule outcomes and knowledge attained by key junctures in the acquisition process for a subset of 47 weapon programs -- primarily in development -- from the 2008 portfolio; (3) data on other factors that could impact program stability; and (4) an update on changes in DoD's acquisition policies. Includes a one- or two-page assessment of 67 weapon programs. Illustrations.
Download or read book Impossible Certainty written by and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2006 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives."
Book Synopsis Defense Acquisitions by : Michael J. Sullivan
Download or read book Defense Acquisitions written by Michael J. Sullivan and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-03 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: DoD weapon programs often experience significant cost and schedule problems because they are allowed to start with too many technical unknowns and not enough knowledge about the development and production risks they entail. This report reviews DoD's Analysis of Alternatives (AOA) process -- intended to assess the operational effectiveness, costs, and risks of alternative weapon system solutions. This report: (1) examines whether AOAs have been effective in identifying the most promising options and providing a sound rationale for weapon program initiation; (2) determines what factors have affected the scope and quality of AOAs; and (3) assesses whether recent DoD policy changes will enhance the effectiveness of AOAs. Illus.
Author :United States. Government Accountability Office Publisher :DIANE Publishing ISBN 13 :1437936547 Total Pages :73 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (379 download)
Book Synopsis Defense Management: DOD Needs Better Information and Guidance to More Effectively Manage and Reduce Operating and Support Costs of Major Weapon Systems by : United States. Government Accountability Office
Download or read book Defense Management: DOD Needs Better Information and Guidance to More Effectively Manage and Reduce Operating and Support Costs of Major Weapon Systems written by United States. Government Accountability Office and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Report examining growth in operating and support (O&S) costs of major DOD weapons systems, and identifying measures to improve DOD ability to manage and reduce O&S costs of weapons systems over their life cycle.
