Good Judgment In Foreign Policy

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Good Judgment in Foreign Policy

Author : Stanley Allen Renshon
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 : 9780742510074
Total Pages : 362 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (1 download)

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Book Synopsis Good Judgment in Foreign Policy by : Stanley Allen Renshon

Download or read book Good Judgment in Foreign Policy written by Stanley Allen Renshon and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2003 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the heart of political leadership lies choice. And at the heart of choice lies judgment. A leader's psychology and experience intersect with political realities to produce consequences that can make or break a leader--or a country. Nowhere is judgment more important than in the making of foreign policy. Good judgments can avoid wars, or win them. Poor judgments can start wars or lose them. This book draws together a distinguished group of contributors--psychologists, political scientists, and policymakers--to focus on and understand both good and poor judgment in foreign policy making. Case studies of key leadership decisions combine with theoretical overviews and analyses to offer a highly textured portrait of judgment in action in the all-important foreign policy arena. An up-to-the-minute case on George W. Bush and the war on terrorism applies good judgment theory to contemporary events.

Expert Political Judgment

Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400888816
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Expert Political Judgment by : Philip E. Tetlock

Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

Presidential Judgment

Author : Aaron Lobel
Publisher : Hollis Publishing Company
ISBN 13 : 9781884186110
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (861 download)

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Book Synopsis Presidential Judgment by : Aaron Lobel

Download or read book Presidential Judgment written by Aaron Lobel and published by Hollis Publishing Company. This book was released on 2001 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

War and Chance

Author : Jeffrey A. Friedman
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0190938048
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (99 download)

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Book Synopsis War and Chance by : Jeffrey A. Friedman

Download or read book War and Chance written by Jeffrey A. Friedman and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-04-01 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty surrounds every major decision in international politics. Yet there is almost always room for reasonable people to disagree about what that uncertainty entails. No one can reliably predict the outbreak of armed conflict, forecast economic recessions, anticipate terrorist attacks, or estimate the countless other risks that shape foreign policy choices. Many scholars and practitioners therefore believe that it is better to keep foreign policy debates focused on the facts - that it is, at best, a waste of time to debate uncertain judgments that will often prove to be wrong. In War and Chance, Jeffrey A. Friedman shows how foreign policy officials often try to avoid the challenge of assessing uncertainty, and argues that this behavior undermines high-stakes decision making. Drawing on an innovative combination of historical and experimental evidence, he explains how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international politics, and shows how placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any foreign policy debate. A clear-eyed examination of the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty, War and Chance provides scholars and practitioners with new foundations for understanding one of the most controversial elements of foreign policy discourse.

Foreign Policy Analysis

Author : M. Breuning
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 0230609244
Total Pages : 207 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (36 download)

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Book Synopsis Foreign Policy Analysis by : M. Breuning

Download or read book Foreign Policy Analysis written by M. Breuning and published by Springer. This book was released on 2007-11-26 with total page 207 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book's introduction to foreign policy analysis focuses on decision makers and decision making. Each chapter is organised around puzzles and questions to which undergraduates can relate. The book emphasizes the importance of individuals in foreign policy decision making, while also placing decision makers within their context.

Navigation by Judgment

Author : Dan Honig
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0190672471
Total Pages : 240 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (96 download)

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Book Synopsis Navigation by Judgment by : Dan Honig

Download or read book Navigation by Judgment written by Dan Honig and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018-03-29 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Foreign aid organizations collectively spend hundreds of billions of dollars annually, with mixed results. Part of the problem in these endeavors lies in their execution. In Navigation by Judgment, Dan Honig argues that high-quality implementation of foreign aid programs often requires contextual information that cannot be seen by those in distant headquarters. Drawing on a novel database of over 14,000 discrete development projects across nine aid agencies and eight paired case studies of development projects, Honig shows that aid agencies will often benefit from giving field agents the authority to use their own judgments to guide aid delivery. This "navigation by judgment" is particularly valuable when environments are unpredictable and when accomplishing an aid program's goals is hard to accurately measure. Highlighting a crucial obstacle for effective global aid, Navigation by Judgment shows that the management of aid projects matters for aid effectiveness.

Intelligence and U.S. Foreign Policy

Author : Paul R. Pillar
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 0231527802
Total Pages : 433 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis Intelligence and U.S. Foreign Policy by : Paul R. Pillar

Download or read book Intelligence and U.S. Foreign Policy written by Paul R. Pillar and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2011-09-06 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A career of nearly three decades with the CIA and the National Intelligence Council showed Paul R. Pillar that intelligence reforms, especially measures enacted since 9/11, can be deeply misguided. They often miss the sources that underwrite failed policy and misperceive our ability to read outside influences. They also misconceive the intelligence-policy relationship and promote changes that weaken intelligence-gathering operations. In this book, Pillar confronts the intelligence myths Americans have come to rely on to explain national tragedies, including the belief that intelligence drives major national security decisions and can be fixed to avoid future failures. Pillar believes these assumptions waste critical resources and create harmful policies, diverting attention away from smarter reform, and they keep Americans from recognizing the limits of obtainable knowledge. Pillar revisits U.S. foreign policy during the Cold War and highlights the small role intelligence played in those decisions, and he demonstrates the negligible effect that America's most notorious intelligence failures had on U.S. policy and interests. He then reviews in detail the events of 9/11 and the 2003 invasion of Iraq, condemning the 9/11 commission and the George W. Bush administration for their portrayals of the role of intelligence. Pillar offers an original approach to better informing U.S. policy, which involves insulating intelligence management from politicization and reducing the politically appointed layer in the executive branch to combat slanted perceptions of foreign threats. Pillar concludes with principles for adapting foreign policy to inevitable uncertainties.

America in the World

Author : Robert B. Zoellick
Publisher : Twelve
ISBN 13 : 1538712369
Total Pages : 764 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (387 download)

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Book Synopsis America in the World by : Robert B. Zoellick

Download or read book America in the World written by Robert B. Zoellick and published by Twelve. This book was released on 2020-08-04 with total page 764 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: America has a long history of diplomacy–ranging from Benjamin Franklin, Alexander Hamilton, and Thomas Jefferson to Henry Kissinger, Ronald Reagan, and James Baker–now is your chance to see the impact these Americans have had on the world. Recounting the actors and events of U.S. foreign policy, Zoellick identifies five traditions that have emerged from America's encounters with the world: the importance of North America; the special roles trading, transnational, and technological relations play in defining ties with others; changing attitudes toward alliances and ways of ordering connections among states; the need for public support, especially through Congress; and the belief that American policy should serve a larger purpose. These traditions frame a closing review of post-Cold War presidencies, which Zoellick foresees serving as guideposts for the future. Both a sweeping work of history and an insightful guide to U.S. diplomacy past and present, America in the World serves as an informative companion and practical adviser to readers seeking to understand the strategic and immediate challenges of U.S. foreign policy during an era of transformation.

Do Morals Matter?

Author : Joseph S. Nye
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 0190935960
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (99 download)

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Book Synopsis Do Morals Matter? by : Joseph S. Nye

Download or read book Do Morals Matter? written by Joseph S. Nye and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2020 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What is the role of ethics in American foreign policy? The Trump Administration has elevated this from a theoretical question to front-page news. Should ethics even play a role, or should we only focus on defending our material interests? In Do Morals Matter? Joseph S. Nye provides a concise yet penetrating analysis of how modern American presidents have-and have not-incorporated ethics into their foreign policy. Nye examines each presidency during theAmerican era post-1945 and scores them on the success they achieved in implementing an ethical foreign policy. Alongside this, he evaluates their leadership qualities, explaining which approaches work and which ones do not.

Model Rules of Professional Conduct

Author : American Bar Association. House of Delegates
Publisher : American Bar Association
ISBN 13 : 9781590318737
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (187 download)

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Book Synopsis Model Rules of Professional Conduct by : American Bar Association. House of Delegates

Download or read book Model Rules of Professional Conduct written by American Bar Association. House of Delegates and published by American Bar Association. This book was released on 2007 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Model Rules of Professional Conduct provides an up-to-date resource for information on legal ethics. Federal, state and local courts in all jurisdictions look to the Rules for guidance in solving lawyer malpractice cases, disciplinary actions, disqualification issues, sanctions questions and much more. In this volume, black-letter Rules of Professional Conduct are followed by numbered Comments that explain each Rule's purpose and provide suggestions for its practical application. The Rules will help you identify proper conduct in a variety of given situations, review those instances where discretionary action is possible, and define the nature of the relationship between you and your clients, colleagues and the courts.

Identity, Culture, and Chinese Foreign Policy

Author : Kangkyu Lee
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000261433
Total Pages : 182 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Identity, Culture, and Chinese Foreign Policy by : Kangkyu Lee

Download or read book Identity, Culture, and Chinese Foreign Policy written by Kangkyu Lee and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-11-29 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book assesses the role of identity and Chinese face culture in Chinese foreign policy by analyzing China’s political and economic retaliation against South Korea’s deployment of the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) system on its soil. By examining the history and military action of China, Japan, and North and South Korea, the book argues that China’s divergent responses were caused by different expectations according to whether states had a perceived identity as a friend or a rival. The author demonstrates that Chinese face culture shapes China’s reaction to others through three dynamics of seeking, saving, and losing face. This book shows how identity and culture have worked in the relationship between China and neighboring countries through three case studies exploring North Korea’s Taepodong-2 missile launch and first nuclear test in 2006, South Korea’s decision to allow the United States to deploy the THAAD around 2016, and Japan’s decision to deploy two U.S. X-band radars in 2005 and 2014. A timely analysis of the importance of identity and culture in international relations, the book will be of interest to scholars of Chinese foreign policy, Sino-South Korean relations, Sino-North Korean relations, Sino-Japanese relations, Korean Politics, Asian Politics, and International Relations.

Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making

Author : Alex Mintz
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139487221
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making by : Alex Mintz

Download or read book Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making written by Alex Mintz and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-02-22 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making presents a psychological approach to foreign policy decision making. This approach focuses on the decision process, dynamics, and outcome. The book includes a wealth of extended real-world case studies and examples that are woven into the text. The cases and examples, which are written in an accessible style, include decisions made by leaders of the United States, Israel, New Zealand, Cuba, Iceland, United Kingdom, and others. In addition to coverage of the rational model of decision making, levels of analysis of foreign policy decision making, and types of decisions, the book includes extensive material on alternatives to the rational choice model, the marketing and framing of decisions, cognitive biases, and domestic, cultural, and international influences on decision making in international affairs. Existing textbooks do not present such an approach to foreign policy decision making, international relations, American foreign policy, and comparative foreign policy.

The Commander-in-Chief Test

Author : Jeffrey A. Friedman
Publisher : Cornell University Press
ISBN 13 : 1501772953
Total Pages : 158 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (17 download)

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Book Synopsis The Commander-in-Chief Test by : Jeffrey A. Friedman

Download or read book The Commander-in-Chief Test written by Jeffrey A. Friedman and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2023-12-15 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In The Commander-in-Chief Test, Jeffrey A. Friedman offers a fresh explanation for why Americans are often frustrated by the cost and scope of US foreign policy—and how we can fix that for the future. Americans frequently criticize US foreign policy for being overly costly and excessively militaristic. With its rising defense budgets and open-ended "forever wars," US foreign policy often appears disconnected from public opinion, reflecting the views of elites and special interests rather than the attitudes of ordinary citizens. The Commander-in-Chief Test argues that this conventional wisdom underestimates the role public opinion plays in shaping foreign policy. Voters may prefer to elect leaders who share their policy views, but they prioritize selecting presidents who seem to have the right personal attributes to be an effective commander in chief. Leaders then use hawkish foreign policies as tools for showing that they are tough enough to defend America's interests on the international stage. This link between leaders' policy positions and their personal images steers US foreign policy in directions that are more hawkish than what voters actually want. Combining polling data with survey experiments and original archival research on cases from the Vietnam War through the occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan, Friedman demonstrates that public opinion plays a surprisingly extensive—and often problematic—role in shaping US international behavior. With the commander-in-chief test, a perennial point of debate in national elections, Friedman's insights offer important lessons on how the politics of image-making impacts foreign policy and how the public should choose its president.

White House Studies Compendium

Author : Robert W. Watson
Publisher : Nova Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9781600215339
Total Pages : 464 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (153 download)

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Book Synopsis White House Studies Compendium by : Robert W. Watson

Download or read book White House Studies Compendium written by Robert W. Watson and published by Nova Publishers. This book was released on 2007 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: " ... brings together piercing analyses of the American presidency - dealing with both current issues and historical events. The compendia consists of the combined and rearranged issues of [the journal] "White House Studies" with the addition of a comprehensive subject index."--Preface.

American Force

Author : Richard K. Betts
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 023152188X
Total Pages : 385 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis American Force by : Richard K. Betts

Download or read book American Force written by Richard K. Betts and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2011-12-06 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While American national security policy has grown more interventionist since the Cold War, Washington has also hoped to shape the world on the cheap. Misled by the stunning success against Iraq in 1991, administrations of both parties have pursued ambitious aims with limited force, committing the country's military frequently yet often hesitantly, with inconsistent justification. These ventures have produced strategic confusion, unplanned entanglements, and indecisive results. This collection of essays by Richard K. Betts, a leading international politics scholar, investigates the use of American force since the end of the Cold War, suggesting guidelines for making it more selective and successful. Betts brings his extensive knowledge of twentieth century American diplomatic and military history to bear on the full range of theory and practice in national security, surveying the Cold War roots of recent initiatives and arguing that U.S. policy has always been more unilateral than liberal theorists claim. He exposes mistakes made by humanitarian interventions and peace operations; reviews the issues raised by terrorism and the use of modern nuclear, biological, and cyber weapons; evaluates the case for preventive war, which almost always proves wrong; weighs the lessons learned from campaigns in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Vietnam; assesses the rise of China and the resurgence of Russia; quells concerns about civil-military relations; exposes anomalies within recent defense budgets; and confronts the practical barriers to effective strategy. Betts ultimately argues for greater caution and restraint, while encouraging more decisive action when force is required, and he recommends a more dispassionate assessment of national security interests, even in the face of global instability and unfamiliar threats.

US Foreign Policy in the Middle East

Author : Geoffrey F. Gresh
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351169629
Total Pages : 308 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (511 download)

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Book Synopsis US Foreign Policy in the Middle East by : Geoffrey F. Gresh

Download or read book US Foreign Policy in the Middle East written by Geoffrey F. Gresh and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-04-17 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The dawn of the Cold War marked a new stage of complex U.S. foreign policy involvement in the Middle East. More recently, globalization and the region’s ongoing conflicts and political violence have led to the U.S. being more politically, economically, and militarily enmeshed – for better or worse—throughout the region. This book examines the emergence and development of U.S. foreign policy toward the Middle East from the early 1900s to the present. With contributions from some of the world’s leading scholars, it takes a fresh, interdisciplinary, and insightful look into the many antecedents that led to current U.S. foreign policy. Exploring the historical challenges, regional alliances, rapid political change, economic interests, domestic politics, and other sources of regional instability, this volume comprises critical analysis from Iranian, Turkish, Israeli, American, and Arab perspectives to provide a comprehensive examination of the evolution and transformation of U.S. foreign policy toward the Middle East. This volume is an important resource for scholars and students working in the fields of Political Science, Sociology, International Relations, Islamic, Turkish, Iranian, Arab, and Israeli Studies.

U.S. Presidents and Foreign Policy Mistakes

Author : Stephen G. Walker
Publisher : Stanford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0804780692
Total Pages : 360 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (47 download)

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Book Synopsis U.S. Presidents and Foreign Policy Mistakes by : Stephen G. Walker

Download or read book U.S. Presidents and Foreign Policy Mistakes written by Stephen G. Walker and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2011-08-15 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mistakes, in the form of bad decisions, are a common feature of every presidential administration, and their consequences run the gamut from unnecessary military spending, to missed opportunities for foreign policy advantage, to needless bloodshed. This book analyzes a range of presidential decisions made in the realm of US foreign policy—with a special focus on national security—over the past half century in order to create a roadmap of the decision process and a guide to better foreign policy decision-making in the increasingly complex context of 21st century international relations. Mistakes are analyzed in two general categories—ones of omission and ones of commission within the context of perceived threats and opportunities. Within this framework, the authors discuss how past scholarship has addressed these questions and argue that this research has not explicitly identified a vantage point around which the answers to these questions revolve. They propose game theory models of complex adaptive systems for minimizing bad decisions and apply them to test cases in the Middle East and Asia.