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Futures Markets Accelerate The Convergence To A Rational Expectations Equilibrium
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Book Synopsis Prediction Markets by : Leighton Vaughan Williams
Download or read book Prediction Markets written by Leighton Vaughan Williams and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2011-06-16 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How does one effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the ‘wisdom of the crowd’? Prediction markets, which are essentially speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions, offer the answer to this question. The effective use of these markets has the potential not only to help forecast future events on a national and international level, but also to assist companies, for example, in providing improved estimates of the potential market size for a new product idea or the launch date of new products and services. The markets have already been used to forecast uncertain outcomes ranging from influenza to the spread of infectious diseases, to the demand for hospital services, to the box office success of movies, climate change, vote shares and election outcomes, to the probability of meeting project deadlines. The insights gained also have many potentially valuable applications for public policy more generally. These markets offer substantial promise as a tool of information aggregation as well as forecasting, whether alone or as a supplement to other mechanisms like opinion surveys, group deliberations, panels of experts and focus groups. Moreover, they can be applied at a macroeconomic and microeconomic level to yield information that is valuable for government and commercial policy-makers and which can be used for a number of social purposes. This volume of original readings, contributed by many of the leading experts in the field, marks a significant addition to the base of knowledge about this fascinating subject area. The book should be of interest to anyone looking at monetary economics, economic forecasting and microeconomics.
Book Synopsis Cognitive Economics by : Paul Bourgine
Download or read book Cognitive Economics written by Paul Bourgine and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-20 with total page 479 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The social sciences study knowing subjects and their interactions. A "cog nitive turn", based on cognitive science, has the potential to enrich these sciences considerably. Cognitive economics belongs within this movement of the social sciences. It aims to take into account the cognitive processes of individuals in economic theory, both on the level of the agent and on the level of their dynamic interactions and the resulting collective phenomena. This is an ambitious research programme that aims to link two levels of com plexity: the level of cognitive phenomena as studied and tested by cognitive science, and the level of collective phenomena produced by the economic in teractions between agents. Such an objective requires cooperation, not only between economists and cognitive scientists but also with mathematicians, physicists and computer scientists, in order to renew, study and simulate models of dynamical systems involving economic agents and their cognitive mechanisms. The hard core of classical economics is the General Equilibrium Theory, based on the optimising rationality of the agent and on static concepts of equilibrium, following a point of view systemised in the framework of Game Theory. The agent is considered "rational" if everything takes place as if he was maximising a function representing his preferences, his utility function.
Book Synopsis Special Issue on Futures Markets by : Jerome Leon Stein
Download or read book Special Issue on Futures Markets written by Jerome Leon Stein and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Asset Markets by : Stefan Palan
Download or read book Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Asset Markets written by Stefan Palan and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-10-03 with total page 179 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes a laboratory experiment designed to test the causes and properties of bubbles in financial markets and explores the question whether it is possible to design markets which avoid such bubbles and crashes. In the experiment, subjects were given the opportunity to trade in a stock market modeled after the seminal work of Smith et al. (1988). To account for the increasing importance of online betting sites, subjects were also allowed to trade in a digital option market. The outcomes shed new light on how subjects form and update their expectations, placing special emphasis on the bounded rationality of investors. Various analytical bubble measures found in the literature are collected, calculated, classified and presented for the first time. The very interesting new bubble measures "Dispersion Ratio", "Overpriced Transactions" and "Underpriced Transactions" are developed, making the book an important step towards the research goal of preventing bubbles and crashes in financial markets.
Book Synopsis Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management by : NCR-134 (Committee : U.S.). Conference
Download or read book Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management written by NCR-134 (Committee : U.S.). Conference and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 454 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Western Journal of Agricultural Economics by :
Download or read book Western Journal of Agricultural Economics written by and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 684 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Futures Markets by : A. G. Malliaris
Download or read book Futures Markets written by A. G. Malliaris and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 1997 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A collection of 70 influential articles which cover a range of topics, including stock indexes, arbitrage, portfolio insurance, volatility and the October 1987 crash, price distributions, theories and determinants of hedging, portfolio selection with futures, institutions, market characteristics, speculation, pricing, efficiency, interest rates and insurance, and foreign currencies. In addition, the editor has written introductory essays for each volume which analyze speculation and hedging, explore the relatively new idea that futures markets can be modelled as chaotic processes, and demystify financial futures while presenting evidence of their benefits. No subject index. Annotation copyright by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
Download or read book The American Economist written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 418 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Some issues include Minutes of the annual convention.
Book Synopsis Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice by : Robert E. Lucas
Download or read book Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice written by Robert E. Lucas and published by U of Minnesota Press. This book was released on 1988 with total page 335 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assumptions about how people form expectations for the future shape the properties of any dynamic economic model. To make economic decisions in an uncertain environment people must forecast such variables as future rates of inflation, tax rates, governme.
Book Synopsis Information and Learning in Markets by : Xavier Vives
Download or read book Information and Learning in Markets written by Xavier Vives and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-01-25 with total page 422 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ways financial analysts, traders, and other specialists use information and learn from each other are of fundamental importance to understanding how markets work and prices are set. This graduate-level textbook analyzes how markets aggregate information and examines the impacts of specific market arrangements--or microstructure--on the aggregation process and overall performance of financial markets. Xavier Vives bridges the gap between the two primary views of markets--informational efficiency and herding--and uses a coherent game-theoretic framework to bring together the latest results from the rational expectations and herding literatures. Vives emphasizes the consequences of market interaction and social learning for informational and economic efficiency. He looks closely at information aggregation mechanisms, progressing from simple to complex environments: from static to dynamic models; from competitive to strategic agents; and from simple market strategies such as noncontingent orders or quantities to complex ones like price contingent orders or demand schedules. Vives finds that contending theories like informational efficiency and herding build on the same principles of Bayesian decision making and that "irrational" agents are not needed to explain herding behavior, booms, and crashes. As this book shows, the microstructure of a market is the crucial factor in the informational efficiency of prices. Provides the most complete analysis of the ways markets aggregate information Bridges the gap between the rational expectations and herding literatures Includes exercises with solutions Serves both as a graduate textbook and a resource for researchers, including financial analysts
Book Synopsis Global Trends 2040 by : National Intelligence Council
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Book Synopsis Post Walrasian Macroeconomics by : David Colander
Download or read book Post Walrasian Macroeconomics written by David Colander and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-07-17 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomics is evolving in an almost dialectic fashion. The latest evolution is the development of a new synthesis that combines insights of new classical, new Keynesian and real business cycle traditions into a dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that serves as a foundation for thinking about macro policy. That new synthesis has opened up the door to a new antithesis, which is being driven by advances in computing power and analytic techniques. This new synthesis is coalescing around developments in complexity theory, automated general to specific econometric modeling, agent-based models, and non-linear and statistical dynamical models. This book thus provides the reader with an introduction to what might be called a Post Walrasian research program that is developing as the antithesis of the Walrasian DSGE synthesis.
Book Synopsis Rational Expectations and Efficiency in Futures Markets by : Barry Goss
Download or read book Rational Expectations and Efficiency in Futures Markets written by Barry Goss and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2005-10-09 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do traders in futures markets make use of all relevant information and is this reflected in prices? This collection of original essays by a team of international economists considers these and other questions central to futures markets.
Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Book Synopsis Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy by : Matthias Kalkuhl
Download or read book Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy written by Matthias Kalkuhl and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.
Book Synopsis Consumer Expectations by : Richard Thomas Curtin
Download or read book Consumer Expectations written by Richard Thomas Curtin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-02-07 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Richard Curtin has directed the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment surveys for more than four decades. His analyses of recent trends in consumer expectations are regularly covered in the worldwide press. In this book, Curtin presents a new theory of expectations. Whereas conventional theories presume that consumers play a passive role in the macro economy, simply reacting to current trends in incomes, prices, and interest rates, Curtin proposes a new empirically consistent theory. He argues that expectations are formed by an automatic process that utilizes conscious and nonconscious processes, passion and reason, information from public and private sources, and social networks. Consumers ultimately reach a decision that serves both the micro decision needs of individuals and reflects the common influence of the macro environment. Drawing on empirical observations, Curtin not only demonstrates the importance of consumer sentiment, but also how it can foreshadow the cyclical turning points in the economy.
Book Synopsis Market Microstructure Theory by : Maureen O'Hara
Download or read book Market Microstructure Theory written by Maureen O'Hara and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1998-03-06 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written by one of the leading authorities in market microstructure research, this book provides a comprehensive guide to the theoretical work in this important area of finance.
