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Forecasting Stock Specific Upriver Migration Timing Of Chinook Salmon In The Yukon River
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Book Synopsis Forecasting Stock-specific Upriver Migration Timing of Chinook Salmon in the Yukon River by : Bryce Douglas Mecum
Download or read book Forecasting Stock-specific Upriver Migration Timing of Chinook Salmon in the Yukon River written by Bryce Douglas Mecum and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) are an economically and culturally important genus of fishes endemic to the North Pacific. Their sustainable management depends on an understanding of the drivers of their abundance and migration dynamics. In many instances, statistical models are employed to predict abundance and run timing before harvest takes place to more effectively meet management objectives. In this thesis, I created a general-purpose predictive model of run timing that can be applied to many salmon populations. I then applied it to Yukon River Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) by generating pre-season predictions of inriver run timing, which I then compared with existing observations of run timing at two upriver locations. Prediction errors were low enough for the model to be useful to management. Models such as the one created in this study represent an objective tool that can be used to reduce subjectivity in fisheries management.
Book Synopsis Distribution and Movements of Chinook Salmon, Oncorhynchus Tshawytscha, Returning to the Yukon River Basin by : John Heinrich Eiler
Download or read book Distribution and Movements of Chinook Salmon, Oncorhynchus Tshawytscha, Returning to the Yukon River Basin written by John Heinrich Eiler and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: [Cont.] Although not surprising considering the extensive variation in migration rates observed among individual fish, this finding does suggest that these pulses do not represent cohesive aggregates of fish moving upriver. Unlike the well established methods used to estimate other life history characteristics, the development of quantitative methods for analyzing and modeling fish movements has lagged noticeably behind, due in part to the complexity associated with movement data and (prior to the advent of telemetry) the difficulty of collecting this type of information on free-ranging individuals. Two fundamentally different analytical approaches, hierarchical linear regression models and multivariate ordination, were used during this study to evaluate factors thought to influence the upriver movements of the fish. In spite of the inherent differences, both methods provided strikingly similar results, indicating that the study findings were not dependent on the approach used, and suggesting that the results were plausible based on the information available and the weight of evidence. Both analytical methods had advantages, and provided complementary information. With hierarchical linear models, it was possible to simultaneously evaluate a wide range of explanatory variables (in our case, both biological and environmental), which provided standardized comparisons and simplified the interpretation of the results. Since both fixed and random effects were incorporated in the models, it was possible to account for sources of variation when insufficient information was available to identify the underlining factors - an important consideration since few field studies provide comprehensive data. With multivariate ordination, separate analyzes were needed to examine the relationships between the migration rates and the biotic and physical variables. In addition to being cumbersome, this limitation made it more difficult to compare the relative influence of the different factors and interactions between factors. However, ordination was very useful as an exploratory tool. Although compartmentalized by stock, across fish comparisons were simple and relatively straightforward. Because the explanatory variables were evaluated separately in relation to the ordination score assigned to the fish, it was possible to examine and compare highly correlated variables. Ordination was also able to identify overall patterns within the data and assess the relative importance. While this can be accomplished within the framework of linear regression using mixture models to determine whether multiple distributions exist within the data, the process is much simpler with ordination. The migratory patterns of the fish were influenced by a wide range of factors, with evidentiary support for complex, multi-faceted relationships. Physical features of the basin demonstrated stronger explanatory power, accounting for over 70% of the observed variation in migration rate compared to 18% for the biological characteristics of the fish. Parameter estimates associated with the steepness of the migratory route and remaining distance the fish had to travel to reach their natal rivers were most strongly correlated with migration rate, with consistent relationships observed across stocks. Migration rates were also noticeably slower in extensively braided reaches of the basin. The weaker relationships between migration rate and biotic factors may reflect stabilizing selection on long-distance migrants. Smaller fish exhibited minimally faster swimming speeds on average than larger individuals. This relationship was stronger in highly braided reaches. Run timing was positively related to migration rate for most stocks. Surprisingly, upper basin stocks traveling farther upriver displayed progressively negative relationships, suggesting that late-run fish were moving slower. Ancillary information suggests that this decline may relate to deteriorating fish condition later in the season.
Book Synopsis Run Timing, Migratory Patterns, and Harvest Information of Chinook Salmon Stocks Within the Yukon River by :
Download or read book Run Timing, Migratory Patterns, and Harvest Information of Chinook Salmon Stocks Within the Yukon River written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis In-season Forecasting of Fraser Chinook Salmon Using Genetic Stock Identification of Test Fishery Data by : Bronwyn Lee MacDonald
Download or read book In-season Forecasting of Fraser Chinook Salmon Using Genetic Stock Identification of Test Fishery Data written by Bronwyn Lee MacDonald and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In-season methods that produce accurate and timely forecasts of returning salmon abundances allow fisheries managers to alter fishing plans in order to meet conservation and harvest objectives. In-season methods are challenged by variability in catch statistics due to factors external to abundance, specifically, fluctuations in the migration timing of target and co-migrating stocks. I apply genetic stock identification (GSI) data to develop catch indices for the five Fraser Chinook management units, and use these indices to forecast returns for each management unit according to four in-season model forms. I evaluate models using three performance measures to determine forecasting errors. Results show that forecasts for Spring 52 and Summer 52 Chinook can be produced with reasonable accuracy early in the fishing season. Forecasts of Spring 42, Summer 41, and Fall Chinook are less accurate. Results indicate that this technique shows promise for providing accurate and timely forecasts for the five Fraser Chinook management units, particularly as additional years of data are GSI-analyzed.
Book Synopsis Stock-specific Run and Escapement of Yukon River Chinook Salmon, 1981-2019 by : Toshihide Hamazaki
Download or read book Stock-specific Run and Escapement of Yukon River Chinook Salmon, 1981-2019 written by Toshihide Hamazaki and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report describes a modeling framework to reconstruct the historical time series of drainagewide and stock-specific run and escapement of Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. that return to a single large river system. The model combines historical data from various assessment projects that estimate mainstem passage, harvests, tributary escapements, and stock proportions under a single maximum-likelihood estimation framework. As a demonstration, the modeling framework was applied to reconstruct the historical (1981–2019) drainagewide run size and escapement of Yukon River Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) and each of the contributing stock components: Canada, Middle Yukon, and Lower Yukon. The model estimated that the average drainagewide (all stocks) run size was 301,000 (range: 109,000–491,000), escapement was 186,000 (88,000–305,000), and harvest rate was 35% (2–60%). The average Canada stock run size was 125,000 (39,000–214,000), escapement was 60,000 (14,000–126,000), and harvest rate was 48% (2–78%). The average Middle Yukon stock run size was 75,000 (22,000–139,000), escapement was 47,000 (14,000–126,000), and harvest rate was 35% (2–85%). The average Lower Yukon stock run was 101,000 (48,000–204,000), escapement was 78,000 (30,000–164,000), and harvest rate was 21% (1–51%). The next steps regarding the application of this model to Yukon River Chinook salmon should include a comprehensive data review, consideration of alternative model structures, and critical evaluation of model assumptions.
Book Synopsis Migratory Timing of Chinook Salmon (O̲n̲c̲o̲r̲h̲y̲n̲c̲h̲u̲s̲ T̲s̲h̲a̲w̲y̲t̲s̲c̲h̲a̲) in the Lower Yukon River, Alaska by : Phillip Roy Mundy
Download or read book Migratory Timing of Chinook Salmon (O̲n̲c̲o̲r̲h̲y̲n̲c̲h̲u̲s̲ T̲s̲h̲a̲w̲y̲t̲s̲c̲h̲a̲) in the Lower Yukon River, Alaska written by Phillip Roy Mundy and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Stock Composition, Run Timing, and Movement Patterns of Chinook Salmon Returning to the Yukon River Basin in 2003 by :
Download or read book Stock Composition, Run Timing, and Movement Patterns of Chinook Salmon Returning to the Yukon River Basin in 2003 written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 107 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia River Basin by : Caitlin Burgess
Download or read book Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia River Basin written by Caitlin Burgess and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Program RealTime provided tracking and forecasting of the 1999 inseason outmigration via the internet for stocks of wild PIT-tagged spring/summer chinook salmon. These stocks were ESUs from sixteen release sites above Lower Granite dam, including Bear Valley Creek, Big Creek, Cape Horn Creek, Catherine Creek, Elk Creek, Herd Creek, Imnaha River, Lake Creek, Loon Creek, Lostine River, Marsh Creek, Minam River, South Fork Salmon River, and Secesh River, Sulfur Creek and Valley Creek. Forecasts were also provided for a stock of hatchery-reared PIT-tagged summer-run sockeye salmon from Redfish Lake and for the runs-at-large of Snake River wild yearling chinook salmon, and steelhead trout. The 1999 RealTime project began making forecasts for a new stock of PIT-tagged wild fall subyearling chinook salmon, as a substitute for forecasts of the wild run-at-large, discontinued June 6. Forecasts for the run-at-large were discontinued when a large release of unmarked hatchery fish into the Snake River made identification of wild fish impossible. The 1999 Program RealTime performance was comparable to its performance in previous years with respect to the run-at-large of yearling chinook salmon (whole season MAD=3.7%), and the run of hatchery-reared Redfish Lake sockeye salmon (whole season MAD=6.7%). Season-wide performance of program RealTime predictions for wild Snake River yearling chinook salmon ESUs improved in 1999, with mean MADs from the first half of the outmigrations down from 15.1% in 1998 to 4.5% in 1999. RealTime performance was somewhat worse for the run-at-large of steelhead trout in 1999, compared to 1998, particularly during the last half of the outmigration when the MAD increased from 2.7% in 1998 to 6.1% in 1999. A pattern of over-predictions was observed in half of the yearling chinook salmon ESUs and the steelhead run-at-large during the month of May. Lower-than-average outflows were observed at Lower Granite dam during the first half of May, the only period of low flows in an year with otherwise higher-than-average-flows. The passage distribution of the stock new to the RealTime forecasting project, the PIT tagged stock of fall subyearling chinook salmon, was predicted with very good accuracy (whole season MAD=4.7%), particularly during the last half of the outmigration (MAD=3.6%). The RealTime project reverted to a pre-1998 method of adjusting PIT-tagged smolt counts at Lower Granite Dam because of its superior performance during the last half of the outmigration.
Book Synopsis Estimates of Total Abundance, Exploitation Rate, and Migratory Timing of Chinook Salmon Runs in the Yukon River, 1982-1986 by : Linda K. Brannian
Download or read book Estimates of Total Abundance, Exploitation Rate, and Migratory Timing of Chinook Salmon Runs in the Yukon River, 1982-1986 written by Linda K. Brannian and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Report on estimates of total abundance (total run size), exploitation rate (maximum sustainable exploitation rate), and migration timing (lower and middle runs, Alaska and upper runs, Canadian origin) of chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha Walbaum) in the Yukon river, Alaska between 1982 and 1986.
Book Synopsis Parameter Estimation for a Class of Models Describing the Migratory Timing of Chinook Salmon in the Lower Yukon River by : John Edward Clark
Download or read book Parameter Estimation for a Class of Models Describing the Migratory Timing of Chinook Salmon in the Lower Yukon River written by John Edward Clark and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Stock Composition, Run Timing, and Movement Patterns of Chinook Salmon Returning to the Yukon River Basin in 2004 by : John Heinrich Eiler
Download or read book Stock Composition, Run Timing, and Movement Patterns of Chinook Salmon Returning to the Yukon River Basin in 2004 written by John Heinrich Eiler and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 107 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Northeastern Bering Sea Juvenile Chinook Salmon Survey, 2017 and Yukon River Adult Run Forecasts, 2018-2020 by : Kathrine G. Howard
Download or read book Northeastern Bering Sea Juvenile Chinook Salmon Survey, 2017 and Yukon River Adult Run Forecasts, 2018-2020 written by Kathrine G. Howard and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monitoring of juvenile Yukon River Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha stocks rearing in the Northeastern Bering Sea (NBS) was initiated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in 2002 using a pelagic trawl survey program. Juvenile salmon were caught after their first summer at sea, and prior work has demonstrated a clear relationship between juvenile abundance and future adult returns, enabling the use of juvenile data in adult run size forecasts. The estimated abundance of juvenile Chinook salmon in the NBS was approximately 2,480,000 (SD 439,000) in 2017, below the 2003-2016 average. The mean proportion of 2017 NBS juvenile Chinook salmon originating in the total Yukon River and Canadian-origin Yukon River was 72% (SD 5%) and 42% (SD 4%), respectively. Abundance of total Yukon and Canadian-origin stocks were estimated as 1,774,000 (SD 338,000) and 1,049,000 (SD 207,000), respectively. Previously established and new adult Yukon River run reconstructions were used to evaluate relationships between juvenile abundance and adult abundance of spawners, runs, and returns. A marked decrease in juvenile production (juveniles per spawner) for total Yukon River and Canadian-origin stocks was below their 2003-2016 averages. These data were incorporated into forecast models to predict total adult run size. Forecasted total Yukon River Chinook salmon run sizes for 2018-2020 were 179,000-301,000, 170,000-297,000 and 114,000-230,000, respectively; forecasted Canadian-origin Chinook salmon run sizes for 2018-2020 were 65,000-102,000, 74,000-116,000 and 62,000-105,000, respectively. The date-adjusted length (FL) of juvenile Chinook salmon in the NBS was 204 mm in 2017, below the 2003-2016 average of 212 mm. Marine data on juvenile Chinook salmon clearly demonstrate that Yukon River Chinook salmon should be expected to remain in a relatively low productivity regime in the near future, but record-low run abundance is unlikely through 2020.
Book Synopsis Migratory Timing of Adult Chinook Salmon (king, Oncorhynchus Tshawytscha) in the Lower Yukon River, Alaska with Respect to Fisheries Management by : Phillip Roy Mundy
Download or read book Migratory Timing of Adult Chinook Salmon (king, Oncorhynchus Tshawytscha) in the Lower Yukon River, Alaska with Respect to Fisheries Management written by Phillip Roy Mundy and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Yukon River Chinook Salmon Stock Status and Development of Management-action Plan Options by : Thomas D. Vania
Download or read book Yukon River Chinook Salmon Stock Status and Development of Management-action Plan Options written by Thomas D. Vania and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia River Basin by : Caitlin Burgess
Download or read book Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia River Basin written by Caitlin Burgess and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Program RealTime provided tracking and forecasting of the 2000 in season outmigration via the internet for stocks of wild PIT-tagged spring/summer chinook salmon. These stocks were ESUs from nineteen release sites above Lower Granite dam, including Bear Valley Creek, Big Creek, Camas Creek (new), Cape Horn Creek, Catherine Creek, Elk Creek, Herd Creek, Imnaha River, Johnson Creek (new), Lake Creek, Loon Creek, Lostine River, Marsh Creek, Minam River, East Fork Salmon River (new), South Fork Salmon River, Secesh River, Sulfur Creek and Valley Creek. Forecasts were also provided for two stocks of hatchery-reared PIT-tagged summer-run sockeye salmon, from Redfish Lake and Alturas Lake (new); for a subpopulation of the PIT-tagged wild Snake River fall subyearling chinook salmon; for all wild Snake River PIT-tagged spring/summer yearling chinook salmon (new) and steelhead trout (new)detected at Lower Granite Dam during the 2000 outmigration. The 2000 RealTime project began making forecasts for combined wild- and hatchery-reared runs-at-large of subyearling and yearling chinook, coho, and sockeye salmon, and steelhead trout migrating to Rock Island and McNary Dams on the mid-Columbia River and the mainstem Columbia River. Due to the new (in 1999-2000) Snake River basin hatchery protocol of releasing unmarked hatchery-reared fish, the RealTime forecasting project no longer makes run-timing forecasts for wild Snake River runs-at-large using FPC passage indices, as it has done for the previous three years (1997-1999). The season-wide measure of Program RealTime performance, the mean absolute difference (MAD) between in-season predictions and true (observed) passage percentiles, improved relative to previous years for nearly all stocks. The average season-wide MAD of all (nineteen) spring/summer yearling chinook salmon ESUs dropped from 5.7% in 1999 to 4.5% in 2000. The 2000 MAD for the hatchery-reared Redfish Lake sockeye salmon ESU was the lowest recorded, at 6.0%, down from 6.7% in 1999. The MAD for the PIT-tagged ESU of wild Snake River fall sub-yearling chinook salmon, after its second season of run-timing forecasting, was 4.7% in 2000 compared to 5.5% in 1999. The high accuracy of season-wide performance in 2000 was largely due to exceptional Program RealTime performance in the last half of the season. Passage predictions from fifteen of the sixteen spring/summer yearling chinook salmon ESUs available for comparison improved in 2000 compared to 1999. The last-half average MAD over all the yearling chinook salmon ESUs was 4.3% in 2000, compared to 6.5% in 1999. Program RealTime 2000 first-half forecasting performance was slightly worse than that of 1999 (MAD = 4.5%), but still comparable to previous years with a MAD equal to 5.1%. Three yearling chinook ESUs showed moderately large (> 10%) MADs. These stocks had larger-than-average recapture percentages in 2000, producing over-predictions early in the season, in a dynamic reminiscent of migration year 1998 (Burgess et al., 1999). The passage distribution of the new stock of hatchery-reared sockeye salmon from Alturas Lake was well-predicted by Program RealTime, based on only two years of historical data (whole-season MAD = 4.3%). The two new run-of-the-river PIT-tagged stocks of wild yearling chinook salmon and steelhead trout were predicted with very good accuracy (whole-season MADs were 4.8% for steelhead trout and 1.7% for yearling chinook salmon), particularly during the last half of the outmigration. First-half steelhead predictions were among the season's worst (MAD = 10.8%), with over-predictions attributable to the largest passage on record of wild PIT-tagged steelhead trout to Lower Granite Dam. The results of RealTime predictions of passage percentiles of combined wild and hatchery-reared salmonids to Rock Island and McNary were mixed. Some of these passage-indexed runs-at-large were predicted with exceptional accuracy (whole-season MADs for coho salmon outmigrating to Rock Island Dam and McNary Dam were, respectively, 0.58% and 1.24%; for yearling chinook to McNary, 0.59%) while others were not forecast well at all (first-half MADs of sockeye salmon migrating to Rock Island and McNary Dams, respectively, were 19.25% and 12.78%). The worst performances for these mid- and mainstem-Columbia River runs-at-large were probably due to large hatchery release disturbing the smoothly accumulating percentages of normal fish passage. The RealTime project used a stock-specific method of upwardly adjusting PIT-tagged smolt counts at Lower Granite Dam. For chinook and sockeye salmon, the project continued using the 1999 formulation for spill-adjustment. For the new stock of wild PIT-tagged steelhead trout, a formula derived for steelhead trout only was used.
Book Synopsis Yukon River Chinook Salmon Stock Status and Action Plan by : Tracy L. Lingnau
Download or read book Yukon River Chinook Salmon Stock Status and Action Plan written by Tracy L. Lingnau and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Operational Plan Amendment by : Corey J. Schwanke
Download or read book Operational Plan Amendment written by Corey J. Schwanke and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The primary purpose of this study is to continue to update the spawning distribution and run timing of Chinook salmon in the Copper River drainage. These stock specific traits were previously estimated from 1999–2004, then again in 2019 and 2020. The purpose of this amendment is to formally acknowledge additional funding for a final year (2021) of the project through the ADF&G Operational Plan process. This amendment updates ROP.SF.3F.2019.04.
