Forecasting Models An Overview With The Help Of R Software

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Forecasting models – an overview with the help of R software

Author : Editor IJSMI
Publisher : international Journal of Statistics and Medical Informatics
ISBN 13 : 1081552808
Total Pages : 101 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (815 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting models – an overview with the help of R software by : Editor IJSMI

Download or read book Forecasting models – an overview with the help of R software written by Editor IJSMI and published by international Journal of Statistics and Medical Informatics. This book was released on 2019-07-20 with total page 101 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting models – an overview with the help of R software Preface Forecasting models involves predicting the future values of a particular series of data which is mainly based on the time domain. Forecasting models are widely used in the fields such as financial markets, demand for a product and disease outbreak. The objective of the forecasting model is to reduce the error in the forecasting. Most of the Forecasting models are based on time series, a statistical concept which involves Moving Averages, Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA), Exponential smoothing and Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) Models. Forecasting models which we deal in this book will be explorative forecasting models which take into account the past data to predict the future values. Current day forecasting models uses advanced techniques such as Machine Learning and Deep Learning Algorithms which are more robust and can handle high volume of data. This book starts with the overview of forecasting and time series concepts and moves on to build forecasting models using different time series models. Examples related to forecasting models which are built based on Machine learning also covered. The book uses R statistical software package, an open source statistical package to build the forecasting models. Editor International Journal of Statistics and Medical Informatics www.ijsmi.com/book.php https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B07VFY53B1

Bayesian Methodology: An overview with the help of R software

Author : Editor IJSMI
Publisher : International Journal Statistics and Medical Informatics
ISBN 13 : 109293989X
Total Pages : 75 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (929 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Methodology: An overview with the help of R software by : Editor IJSMI

Download or read book Bayesian Methodology: An overview with the help of R software written by Editor IJSMI and published by International Journal Statistics and Medical Informatics . This book was released on 2019-04-06 with total page 75 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian methodology differs from traditional statistical methodology which involves frequentist approach. Bayesian methodology was introduced by Thomas Bayes (Statistician and minister at the Presbyterian Chapel) during the 18th Century. Bayesian methodology is now widely being used due to its simple, straightforward and interpretable characteristics of probability values and the efficiency of modern day computer systems. Bayesian methodology is now being used in the field of clinical research, clinical trials, epidemiology, econometrics, statistical process control, marketing research and statistical mechanics. It also used in the emerging field such as data science (machine learning and deep learning) and big data analytics. The book provides an overview of Bayesian methodology, its uses in different fields with the help of R statistical open source software. Editor International Journal of Statistics and Medical Informatics www.ijsmi.com/book.php

Forecasting: principles and practice

Author : Rob J Hyndman
Publisher : OTexts
ISBN 13 : 0987507117
Total Pages : 380 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (875 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting: principles and practice by : Rob J Hyndman

Download or read book Forecasting: principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

R for Data Science

Author : Hadley Wickham
Publisher : "O'Reilly Media, Inc."
ISBN 13 : 1491910364
Total Pages : 521 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (919 download)

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Book Synopsis R for Data Science by : Hadley Wickham

Download or read book R for Data Science written by Hadley Wickham and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2016-12-12 with total page 521 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Learn how to use R to turn raw data into insight, knowledge, and understanding. This book introduces you to R, RStudio, and the tidyverse, a collection of R packages designed to work together to make data science fast, fluent, and fun. Suitable for readers with no previous programming experience, R for Data Science is designed to get you doing data science as quickly as possible. Authors Hadley Wickham and Garrett Grolemund guide you through the steps of importing, wrangling, exploring, and modeling your data and communicating the results. You'll get a complete, big-picture understanding of the data science cycle, along with basic tools you need to manage the details. Each section of the book is paired with exercises to help you practice what you've learned along the way. You'll learn how to: Wrangle—transform your datasets into a form convenient for analysis Program—learn powerful R tools for solving data problems with greater clarity and ease Explore—examine your data, generate hypotheses, and quickly test them Model—provide a low-dimensional summary that captures true "signals" in your dataset Communicate—learn R Markdown for integrating prose, code, and results

Hands-On Time Series Analysis with R

Author : Rami Krispin
Publisher : Packt Publishing Ltd
ISBN 13 : 1788624041
Total Pages : 438 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (886 download)

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Book Synopsis Hands-On Time Series Analysis with R by : Rami Krispin

Download or read book Hands-On Time Series Analysis with R written by Rami Krispin and published by Packt Publishing Ltd. This book was released on 2019-05-31 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Build efficient forecasting models using traditional time series models and machine learning algorithms. Key FeaturesPerform time series analysis and forecasting using R packages such as Forecast and h2oDevelop models and find patterns to create visualizations using the TSstudio and plotly packagesMaster statistics and implement time-series methods using examples mentionedBook Description Time series analysis is the art of extracting meaningful insights from, and revealing patterns in, time series data using statistical and data visualization approaches. These insights and patterns can then be utilized to explore past events and forecast future values in the series. This book explores the basics of time series analysis with R and lays the foundations you need to build forecasting models. You will learn how to preprocess raw time series data and clean and manipulate data with packages such as stats, lubridate, xts, and zoo. You will analyze data and extract meaningful information from it using both descriptive statistics and rich data visualization tools in R such as the TSstudio, plotly, and ggplot2 packages. The later section of the book delves into traditional forecasting models such as time series linear regression, exponential smoothing (Holt, Holt-Winter, and more) and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models with the stats and forecast packages. You'll also cover advanced time series regression models with machine learning algorithms such as Random Forest and Gradient Boosting Machine using the h2o package. By the end of this book, you will have the skills needed to explore your data, identify patterns, and build a forecasting model using various traditional and machine learning methods. What you will learnVisualize time series data and derive better insightsExplore auto-correlation and master statistical techniquesUse time series analysis tools from the stats, TSstudio, and forecast packagesExplore and identify seasonal and correlation patternsWork with different time series formats in RExplore time series models such as ARIMA, Holt-Winters, and moreEvaluate high-performance forecasting solutionsWho this book is for Hands-On Time Series Analysis with R is ideal for data analysts, data scientists, and all R developers who are looking to perform time series analysis to predict outcomes effectively. A basic knowledge of statistics is required; some knowledge in R is expected, but not mandatory.

Practical Time Series Analysis

Author : Aileen Nielsen
Publisher : O'Reilly Media
ISBN 13 : 1492041629
Total Pages : 500 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (92 download)

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Book Synopsis Practical Time Series Analysis by : Aileen Nielsen

Download or read book Practical Time Series Analysis written by Aileen Nielsen and published by O'Reilly Media. This book was released on 2019-09-20 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Time series data analysis is increasingly important due to the massive production of such data through the internet of things, the digitalization of healthcare, and the rise of smart cities. As continuous monitoring and data collection become more common, the need for competent time series analysis with both statistical and machine learning techniques will increase. Covering innovations in time series data analysis and use cases from the real world, this practical guide will help you solve the most common data engineering and analysis challengesin time series, using both traditional statistical and modern machine learning techniques. Author Aileen Nielsen offers an accessible, well-rounded introduction to time series in both R and Python that will have data scientists, software engineers, and researchers up and running quickly. You’ll get the guidance you need to confidently: Find and wrangle time series data Undertake exploratory time series data analysis Store temporal data Simulate time series data Generate and select features for a time series Measure error Forecast and classify time series with machine or deep learning Evaluate accuracy and performance

Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting

Author : Peter J. Brockwell
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1475725264
Total Pages : 429 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)

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Book Synopsis Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting by : Peter J. Brockwell

Download or read book Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting written by Peter J. Brockwell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Some of the key mathematical results are stated without proof in order to make the underlying theory acccessible to a wider audience. The book assumes a knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra, and elementary statistics. The emphasis is on methods and the analysis of data sets. The logic and tools of model-building for stationary and non-stationary time series are developed in detail and numerous exercises, many of which make use of the included computer package, provide the reader with ample opportunity to develop skills in this area. The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space models, with an optional chapter on spectral analysis. Additional topics include harmonic regression, the Burg and Hannan-Rissanen algorithms, unit roots, regression with ARMA errors, structural models, the EM algorithm, generalized state-space models with applications to time series of count data, exponential smoothing, the Holt-Winters and ARAR forecasting algorithms, transfer function models and intervention analysis. Brief introducitons are also given to cointegration and to non-linear, continuous-time and long-memory models. The time series package included in the back of the book is a slightly modified version of the package ITSM, published separately as ITSM for Windows, by Springer-Verlag, 1994. It does not handle such large data sets as ITSM for Windows, but like the latter, runs on IBM-PC compatible computers under either DOS or Windows (version 3.1 or later). The programs are all menu-driven so that the reader can immediately apply the techniques in the book to time series data, with a minimal investment of time in the computational and algorithmic aspects of the analysis.

Deep Learning Models explored with help of Python Programming

Author : Editor IJSMI
Publisher : International Journal of Statistics and Medical Informatics
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 102 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (588 download)

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Book Synopsis Deep Learning Models explored with help of Python Programming by : Editor IJSMI

Download or read book Deep Learning Models explored with help of Python Programming written by Editor IJSMI and published by International Journal of Statistics and Medical Informatics. This book was released on 2020-11-04 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the second book in the Deep Learning models series by the author. Deep learning models are widely used in different fields due to its capability to handle large and complex datasets and produce the desired results with more accuracy at a greater speed. In Deep learning models, features are selected automatically through the iterative process wherein the model learns the features by going deep into the dataset and selects the features to be modeled. In the traditional models the features of the dataset needs to be specified in advance. The Deep Learning algorithms are derived from Artificial Neural Network concepts and it is a part of broader Machine Learning Models. The book starts with the Introduction part which is adopted from Author’s Deep Learning Models and its application: An overview with the help of R software book and move on to the Python’s important data processing packages such Numpy, and Pandas. Book then explores the Deep Learning models with the help of packages such as Pytorch, Tensor Flow and Keras and their applications in image processing, stock market prediction, recommender systems and natural language processing. Editor International Journal of Statistics and Medical Informatics www.ijsmi.com/book.php ISBN: 9798558877953 E-Books: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08MQTM1ZP Paperbacks: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08MSQ3R8R

Introductory Time Series with R

Author : Paul S.P. Cowpertwait
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0387886982
Total Pages : 262 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (878 download)

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Book Synopsis Introductory Time Series with R by : Paul S.P. Cowpertwait

Download or read book Introductory Time Series with R written by Paul S.P. Cowpertwait and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-05-28 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book gives you a step-by-step introduction to analysing time series using the open source software R. Each time series model is motivated with practical applications, and is defined in mathematical notation. Once the model has been introduced it is used to generate synthetic data, using R code, and these generated data are then used to estimate its parameters. This sequence enhances understanding of both the time series model and the R function used to fit the model to data. Finally, the model is used to analyse observed data taken from a practical application. By using R, the whole procedure can be reproduced by the reader. All the data sets used in the book are available on the website http://staff.elena.aut.ac.nz/Paul-Cowpertwait/ts/. The book is written for undergraduate students of mathematics, economics, business and finance, geography, engineering and related disciplines, and postgraduate students who may need to analyse time series as part of their taught programme or their research.

The Book of R

Author : Tilman M. Davies
Publisher : No Starch Press
ISBN 13 : 1593276516
Total Pages : 833 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (932 download)

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Book Synopsis The Book of R by : Tilman M. Davies

Download or read book The Book of R written by Tilman M. Davies and published by No Starch Press. This book was released on 2016-07-16 with total page 833 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Book of R is a comprehensive, beginner-friendly guide to R, the world’s most popular programming language for statistical analysis. Even if you have no programming experience and little more than a grounding in the basics of mathematics, you’ll find everything you need to begin using R effectively for statistical analysis. You’ll start with the basics, like how to handle data and write simple programs, before moving on to more advanced topics, like producing statistical summaries of your data and performing statistical tests and modeling. You’ll even learn how to create impressive data visualizations with R’s basic graphics tools and contributed packages, like ggplot2 and ggvis, as well as interactive 3D visualizations using the rgl package. Dozens of hands-on exercises (with downloadable solutions) take you from theory to practice, as you learn: –The fundamentals of programming in R, including how to write data frames, create functions, and use variables, statements, and loops –Statistical concepts like exploratory data analysis, probabilities, hypothesis tests, and regression modeling, and how to execute them in R –How to access R’s thousands of functions, libraries, and data sets –How to draw valid and useful conclusions from your data –How to create publication-quality graphics of your results Combining detailed explanations with real-world examples and exercises, this book will provide you with a solid understanding of both statistics and the depth of R’s functionality. Make The Book of R your doorway into the growing world of data analysis.

Applied Econometrics with R

Author : Christian Kleiber
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0387773185
Total Pages : 229 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (877 download)

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Book Synopsis Applied Econometrics with R by : Christian Kleiber

Download or read book Applied Econometrics with R written by Christian Kleiber and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-12-10 with total page 229 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: R is a language and environment for data analysis and graphics. It may be considered an implementation of S, an award-winning language initially - veloped at Bell Laboratories since the late 1970s. The R project was initiated by Robert Gentleman and Ross Ihaka at the University of Auckland, New Zealand, in the early 1990s, and has been developed by an international team since mid-1997. Historically, econometricians have favored other computing environments, some of which have fallen by the wayside, and also a variety of packages with canned routines. We believe that R has great potential in econometrics, both for research and for teaching. There are at least three reasons for this: (1) R is mostly platform independent and runs on Microsoft Windows, the Mac family of operating systems, and various ?avors of Unix/Linux, and also on some more exotic platforms. (2) R is free software that can be downloaded and installed at no cost from a family of mirror sites around the globe, the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN); hence students can easily install it on their own machines. (3) R is open-source software, so that the full source code is available and can be inspected to understand what it really does, learn from it, and modify and extend it. We also like to think that platform independence and the open-source philosophy make R an ideal environment for reproducible econometric research.

Introduction to Data Science

Author : Rafael A. Irizarry
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000708039
Total Pages : 836 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Introduction to Data Science by : Rafael A. Irizarry

Download or read book Introduction to Data Science written by Rafael A. Irizarry and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-11-20 with total page 836 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction to Data Science: Data Analysis and Prediction Algorithms with R introduces concepts and skills that can help you tackle real-world data analysis challenges. It covers concepts from probability, statistical inference, linear regression, and machine learning. It also helps you develop skills such as R programming, data wrangling, data visualization, predictive algorithm building, file organization with UNIX/Linux shell, version control with Git and GitHub, and reproducible document preparation. This book is a textbook for a first course in data science. No previous knowledge of R is necessary, although some experience with programming may be helpful. The book is divided into six parts: R, data visualization, statistics with R, data wrangling, machine learning, and productivity tools. Each part has several chapters meant to be presented as one lecture. The author uses motivating case studies that realistically mimic a data scientist’s experience. He starts by asking specific questions and answers these through data analysis so concepts are learned as a means to answering the questions. Examples of the case studies included are: US murder rates by state, self-reported student heights, trends in world health and economics, the impact of vaccines on infectious disease rates, the financial crisis of 2007-2008, election forecasting, building a baseball team, image processing of hand-written digits, and movie recommendation systems. The statistical concepts used to answer the case study questions are only briefly introduced, so complementing with a probability and statistics textbook is highly recommended for in-depth understanding of these concepts. If you read and understand the chapters and complete the exercises, you will be prepared to learn the more advanced concepts and skills needed to become an expert.

SAS for Forecasting Time Series, Third Edition

Author : John C. Brocklebank, Ph.D.
Publisher : SAS Institute
ISBN 13 : 1629605441
Total Pages : 616 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (296 download)

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Book Synopsis SAS for Forecasting Time Series, Third Edition by : John C. Brocklebank, Ph.D.

Download or read book SAS for Forecasting Time Series, Third Edition written by John C. Brocklebank, Ph.D. and published by SAS Institute. This book was released on 2018-03-14 with total page 616 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To use statistical methods and SAS applications to forecast the future values of data taken over time, you need only follow this thoroughly updated classic on the subject. With this third edition of SAS for Forecasting Time Series, intermediate-to-advanced SAS users—such as statisticians, economists, and data scientists—can now match the most sophisticated forecasting methods to the most current SAS applications. Starting with fundamentals, this new edition presents methods for modeling both univariate and multivariate data taken over time. From the well-known ARIMA models to unobserved components, methods that span the range from simple to complex are discussed and illustrated. Many of the newer methods are variations on the basic ARIMA structures. Completely updated, this new edition includes fresh, interesting business situations and data sets, and new sections on these up-to-date statistical methods: ARIMA models Vector autoregressive models Exponential smoothing models Unobserved component and state-space models Seasonal adjustment Spectral analysis Focusing on application, this guide teaches a wide range of forecasting techniques by example. The examples provide the statistical underpinnings necessary to put the methods into practice. The following up-to-date SAS applications are covered in this edition: The ARIMA procedure The AUTOREG procedure The VARMAX procedure The ESM procedure The UCM and SSM procedures The X13 procedure The SPECTRA procedure SAS Forecast Studio Each SAS application is presented with explanation of its strengths, weaknesses, and best uses. Even users of automated forecasting systems will benefit from this knowledge of what is done and why. Moreover, the accompanying examples can serve as templates that you easily adjust to fit your specific forecasting needs. This book is part of the SAS Press program.

Modern Statistics with R

Author : Måns Thulin
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 9781032512440
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (124 download)

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Book Synopsis Modern Statistics with R by : Måns Thulin

Download or read book Modern Statistics with R written by Måns Thulin and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2024-08-20 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The past decades have transformed the world of statistical data analysis, with new methods, new types of data, and new computational tools. Modern Statistics with R introduces you to key parts of this modern statistical toolkit. It teaches you: Data wrangling - importing, formatting, reshaping, merging, and filtering data in R. Exploratory data analysis - using visualisations and multivariate techniques to explore datasets. Statistical inference - modern methods for testing hypotheses and computing confidence intervals. Predictive modelling - regression models and machine learning methods for prediction, classification, and forecasting. Simulation - using simulation techniques for sample size computations and evaluations of statistical methods. Ethics in statistics - ethical issues and good statistical practice. R programming - writing code that is fast, readable, and (hopefully!) free from bugs. No prior programming experience is necessary. Clear explanations and examples are provided to accommodate readers at all levels of familiarity with statistical principles and coding practices. A basic understanding of probability theory can enhance comprehension of certain concepts discussed within this book. In addition to plenty of examples, the book includes more than 200 exercises, with fully worked solutions available at: www.modernstatisticswithr.com.

R Cookbook

Author : Paul Teetor
Publisher : "O'Reilly Media, Inc."
ISBN 13 : 1449307264
Total Pages : 438 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (493 download)

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Book Synopsis R Cookbook by : Paul Teetor

Download or read book R Cookbook written by Paul Teetor and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2011-03-03 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With more than 200 practical recipes, this book helps you perform data analysis with R quickly and efficiently. The R language provides everything you need to do statistical work, but its structure can be difficult to master. This collection of concise, task-oriented recipes makes you productive with R immediately, with solutions ranging from basic tasks to input and output, general statistics, graphics, and linear regression. Each recipe addresses a specific problem, with a discussion that explains the solution and offers insight into how it works. If you’re a beginner, R Cookbook will help get you started. If you’re an experienced data programmer, it will jog your memory and expand your horizons. You’ll get the job done faster and learn more about R in the process. Create vectors, handle variables, and perform other basic functions Input and output data Tackle data structures such as matrices, lists, factors, and data frames Work with probability, probability distributions, and random variables Calculate statistics and confidence intervals, and perform statistical tests Create a variety of graphic displays Build statistical models with linear regressions and analysis of variance (ANOVA) Explore advanced statistical techniques, such as finding clusters in your data "Wonderfully readable, R Cookbook serves not only as a solutions manual of sorts, but as a truly enjoyable way to explore the R language—one practical example at a time."—Jeffrey Ryan, software consultant and R package author

Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

Author : Douglas C. Montgomery
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118745159
Total Pages : 670 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (187 download)

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Book Synopsis Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting by : Douglas C. Montgomery

Download or read book Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting written by Douglas C. Montgomery and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-04-21 with total page 670 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for the First Edition "...[t]he book is great for readers who need to apply the methods and models presented but have little background in mathematics and statistics." -MAA Reviews Thoroughly updated throughout, Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition presents the underlying theories of time series analysis that are needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct real-world short- to medium-term statistical forecasts. Authored by highly-experienced academics and professionals in engineering statistics, the Second Edition features discussions on both popular and modern time series methodologies as well as an introduction to Bayesian methods in forecasting. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition also includes: Over 300 exercises from diverse disciplines including health care, environmental studies, engineering, and finance More than 50 programming algorithms using JMP®, SAS®, and R that illustrate the theory and practicality of forecasting techniques in the context of time-oriented data New material on frequency domain and spatial temporal data analysis Expanded coverage of the variogram and spectrum with applications as well as transfer and intervention model functions A supplementary website featuring PowerPoint® slides, data sets, and select solutions to the problems Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition is an ideal textbook upper-undergraduate and graduate-levels courses in forecasting and time series. The book is also an excellent reference for practitioners and researchers who need to model and analyze time series data to generate forecasts.

Financial Risk Forecasting

Author : Jon Danielsson
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119977118
Total Pages : 307 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (199 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Risk Forecasting by : Jon Danielsson

Download or read book Financial Risk Forecasting written by Jon Danielsson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-04-20 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.