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Forecasting House Price Inflation
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Book Synopsis Housing Boom and Headline Inflation: Insights from Machine Learning by : Yang Liu
Download or read book Housing Boom and Headline Inflation: Insights from Machine Learning written by Yang Liu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-07-28 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation has been rising during the pandemic against supply chain disruptions and a multi-year boom in global owner-occupied house prices. We present some stylized facts pointing to house prices as a leading indicator of headline inflation in the U.S. and eight other major economies with fast-rising house prices. We then apply machine learning methods to forecast inflation in two housing components (rent and owner-occupied housing cost) of the headline inflation and draw tentative inferences about inflationary impact. Our results suggest that for most of these countries, the housing components could have a relatively large and sustained contribution to headline inflation, as inflation is just starting to reflect the higher house prices. Methodologically, for the vast majority of countries we analyze, machine-learning models outperform the VAR model, suggesting some potential value for incorporating such models into inflation forecasting.
Book Synopsis Forecasting US Home Prices with Neural Network and Fuzzy Methods by : Pejman Bahramian
Download or read book Forecasting US Home Prices with Neural Network and Fuzzy Methods written by Pejman Bahramian and published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2015-04-14 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Housing prices can be seen as an important tool affecting business cycles via its impact on investment and consumption spending. Also, local specifications allow for differences in regional business cycles.Recent studies have shown that there is a link between the housing market and economic activity. Also, they suggest that house-price fluctuations lead to real activity, inflation, or both. Therefore the existence of good model to forecast is very crucial for policy makers. Good policy requires that first identification of relationship for data (linear or non _linear) because it can affect not only housing prices rather all the economy.Research evidence shows that for any system with non-linear instability patterns such as the market for housing, the utilization of the ANN methodology serve properly. Therefore, in order to elucidate the non-linearity in the housing market, this book develops a new framework for the neural network and fuzzy methods, and pioneers their application to the recursive forecasting techniques
Book Synopsis Economic Analysis of the Digital Economy by : Avi Goldfarb
Download or read book Economic Analysis of the Digital Economy written by Avi Goldfarb and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2015-05-08 with total page 510 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a small and growing literature that explores the impact of digitization in a variety of contexts, but its economic consequences, surprisingly, remain poorly understood. This volume aims to set the agenda for research in the economics of digitization, with each chapter identifying a promising area of research. "Economics of Digitization "identifies urgent topics with research already underway that warrant further exploration from economists. In addition to the growing importance of digitization itself, digital technologies have some features that suggest that many well-studied economic models may not apply and, indeed, so many aspects of the digital economy throw normal economics in a loop. "Economics of Digitization" will be one of the first to focus on the economic implications of digitization and to bring together leading scholars in the economics of digitization to explore emerging research.
Book Synopsis Forecasting House Price Inflation by : Sarah Drought
Download or read book Forecasting House Price Inflation written by Sarah Drought and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Inflation of House Prices, Its Extent, Causes, and Consequences by : Leo Grebler
Download or read book The Inflation of House Prices, Its Extent, Causes, and Consequences written by Leo Grebler and published by Free Press. This book was released on 1979 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Identifying and Forecasting House Price Dynamics in Ireland by : Antonello D'Agostino
Download or read book Identifying and Forecasting House Price Dynamics in Ireland written by Antonello D'Agostino and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While increased attention has, of late, focussed on models of house prices, few, if any, studies have examined house prices from a purely forecasting perspective. However, the need for accurate and timely forecasts of house prices has grown as the rate of house price inflation is more and more important to policy discussions such as those governing decisions on inflation. This is further underscored with the development of financial markets products based on house price index. In this paper, we propose that a simple univariate moving average (MA) model can provide optimal forecasts of Irish house price inflation when compared with a suite of standard forecasting and structural house price models. This result echoes similiar recent findings for forecasts of US inflation rate.
Book Synopsis House Price Prediction Using Daily News Data by : Sara J. Kirkeby
Download or read book House Price Prediction Using Daily News Data written by Sara J. Kirkeby and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate whether information from news articles could improve predictions of house price inflation at a short forecast horizon. The Covid-19 pandemic led to a shutdown of the Norwegian economy on March 12th 2020. Large economic fluctuations posed challenges for models used to forecast economic developments. Our results indicate that news data contain valuable information about the direction of the housing market in periods of economic distress.
Book Synopsis The Econometrics of Multi-dimensional Panels by : Laszlo Matyas
Download or read book The Econometrics of Multi-dimensional Panels written by Laszlo Matyas and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-07-26 with total page 467 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the econometric foundations and applications of multi-dimensional panels, including modern methods of big data analysis. The last two decades or so, the use of panel data has become a standard in many areas of economic analysis. The available models formulations became more complex, the estimation and hypothesis testing methods more sophisticated. The interaction between economics and econometrics resulted in a huge publication output, deepening and widening immensely our knowledge and understanding in both. The traditional panel data, by nature, are two-dimensional. Lately, however, as part of the big data revolution, there has been a rapid emergence of three, four and even higher dimensional panel data sets. These have started to be used to study the flow of goods, capital, and services, but also some other economic phenomena that can be better understood in higher dimensions. Oddly, applications rushed ahead of theory in this field. This book is aimed at filling this widening gap. The first theoretical part of the volume is providing the econometric foundations to deal with these new high-dimensional panel data sets. It not only synthesizes our current knowledge, but mostly, presents new research results. The second empirical part of the book provides insight into the most relevant applications in this area. These chapters are a mixture of surveys and new results, always focusing on the econometric problems and feasible solutions.
Download or read book Journal of Housing Research written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 1430 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Econometric Forecasting and High-frequency Data Analysis by : Roberto S. Mariano
Download or read book Econometric Forecasting and High-frequency Data Analysis written by Roberto S. Mariano and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2008 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important book consists of surveys of high-frequency financial data analysis and econometric forecasting, written by pioneers in these areas including Nobel laureate Lawrence Klein. Some of the chapters were presented as tutorials to an audience in the Econometric Forecasting and High-Frequency Data Analysis Workshop at the Institute for Mathematical Science, National University of Singapore in May 2006. They will be of interest to researchers working in macroeconometrics as well as financial econometrics. Moreover, readers will find these chapters useful as a guide to the literature as well as suggestions for future research. Sample Chapter(s). Foreword (32 KB). Chapter 1: Forecast Uncertainty, Its Representation and Evaluation* (97 KB). Contents: Forecasting Uncertainty, Its Representation and Evaluation (K F Wallis); The University of Pennsylvania Models for High-Frequency Macroeconomic Modeling (L R Klein & S Ozmucur); Forecasting Seasonal Time Series (P H Franses); Car and Affine Processes (C Gourieroux); Multivariate Time Series Analysis and Forecasting (M Deistler). Readership: Professionals and researchers in econometric forecasting and financial data analysis.
Book Synopsis House Prices and the Macroeconomy by : Charles Goodhart
Download or read book House Prices and the Macroeconomy written by Charles Goodhart and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2007 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: House price bubbles, and their aftermath, have become a focus of macro-economic policy concern in most developed countries. This book elucidates the two-way relationship between house-price fluctuations and economic fundamentals. Housing has many features which make it distinct from other assets, like equity. Real estate is not only an asset but also a durable consumption good for households, providing shelter and other housing services. As a result, a house is often the largest and most important asset of households and therefore accounts for a major share of household wealth. Similarly a large share of bank assets is tied to housing values. House price fluctuations may, therefore, have a major effect on economic activity and the soundness of the financial system. Following an introductory chapter, the book is structured into three parts. The first demonstrates the importance of house prices as determinants or indicators of inflation and economic activity. The second focuses on the inter-relationships between bank credit extension and housing prices, and how bubbles can lead to financial crises. The third discusses resultant public policy issues, such as whether, and how, to include housing prices in a general inflation index, and how to restrain the housing/bank credit cycle.
Book Synopsis The Great Housing Bubble by : Lawrence Roberts
Download or read book The Great Housing Bubble written by Lawrence Roberts and published by Monterey Cypress LLC. This book was released on 2008 with total page 251 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A detailed analysis of the psychological and mechanical causes of the biggest rally, and subsequent fall, of housing prices ever recorded. Examines the causes of the breathtaking rise in prices and the catastrophic fall that ensued to answer the question on every homeowner's mind: "Why did house prices fall?"--Page 4 of cover
Book Synopsis Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts by : Sophia Chen
Download or read book Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts written by Sophia Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-18 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the forecasting power of financial variables for macroeconomic variables for 62 countries between 1980 and 2013. We find that financial variables such as credit growth, stock prices and house prices have considerable predictive power for macroeconomic variables at one to four quarters horizons. A forecasting model with financial variables outperforms the World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts in up to 85 percent of our sample countries at the four quarters horizon. We also find that cross-country panel models produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than individual country models.
Book Synopsis The Housing Boom and Bust by : Thomas Sowell
Download or read book The Housing Boom and Bust written by Thomas Sowell and published by Basic Books (AZ). This book was released on 2009-05-12 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains how we got into the current economic disaster that developed out of the economics and politics of the housing boom and bust. The "creative" financing of home mortgages and "creative" marketing of financial securities based on these mortgages to countries around the world, are part of the story of how a financial house of cards was built up--and then collapsed.
Download or read book Economic Forecasting written by N. Carnot and published by Springer. This book was released on 2005-08-12 with total page 335 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting. In addition, the book addresses the main issues surrounding the use of forecasts (accuracy, communication challenges) and their policy implications. A tour of the economic data and forecasting institutions is also provided.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Non-stationary Economic Time Series by : Michael P. Clements
Download or read book Forecasting Non-stationary Economic Time Series written by Michael P. Clements and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 398 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text on economic forecasting asks why some practices seem to work empirically despite a lack of formal support from theory. After reviewing the conventional approach to forecasting, it looks at the implications for causal modelling, presents forecast errors and delineates sources of failure.
Book Synopsis A Guide to IMF Stress Testing by : Ms.Li L Ong
Download or read book A Guide to IMF Stress Testing written by Ms.Li L Ong and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-23 with total page 610 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The IMF has had extensive involvement in the stress testing of financial systems in its member countries. This book presents the methods and models that have been developed by IMF staff over the years and that can be applied to the gamut of financial systems. An added resource for readers is the companion CD-Rom, which makes available the toolkit with some of the models presented in the book (also located at elibrary.imf.org/page/stress-test-toolkit).
