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Author : McKinley Conway
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780910436663
Total Pages : 186 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (366 download)
Download or read book Forecasting for Fame, Fortune and Frustration written by McKinley Conway and published by . This book was released on 2008-01-01 with total page 186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Nate Silver
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0143125087
Total Pages : 577 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (431 download)
Download or read book The Signal and the Noise written by Nate Silver and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2015-02-03 with total page 577 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Crown
ISBN 13 : 080413670X
Total Pages : 331 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (41 download)
Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Author : Dana Ferguson
Publisher : Book Review Index Cumulation
ISBN 13 : 9781414419121
Total Pages : 1304 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (191 download)
Download or read book Book Review Index - 2009 Cumulation written by Dana Ferguson and published by Book Review Index Cumulation. This book was released on 2009-08 with total page 1304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Book Review Index provides quick access to reviews of books, periodicals, books on tape and electronic media representing a wide range of popular, academic and professional interests. The up-to-date coverage, wide scope and inclusion of citations for both newly published and older materials make Book Review Index an exceptionally useful reference tool. More than 600 publications are indexed, including journals and national general interest publications and newspapers. Book Review Index is available in a three-issue subscription covering the current year or as an annual cumulation covering the past year.
Author : Gerald Kahan
Publisher : University of Georgia Press
ISBN 13 : 082033264X
Total Pages : 238 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (23 download)
Download or read book George Alexander Stevens and the Lecture on Heads written by Gerald Kahan and published by University of Georgia Press. This book was released on 2008-06-01 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this carefully researched work, Gerald Kahan traces the genesis, development, and production history of a delightful and important eighteenth-century theatre piece, The Lecture on Heads. The Lecture was first presented in London in 1764 and became a staple in the English-speaking theaters of the world for the remainder of the eighteenth century. It amassed a fortune for its creator, George Alexander Stevens, was copied and adapted by dozens of performers, and went through forty published editions, authentic and spurious. Kahan studies the theatrical and cultural backgrounds that influenced the contents, development, and popularity of the Lecture. His exhaustive research has produced the most comprehensive and accurate published account of Stevens's life and career as well as a bibliography of his works. In addition, readers will find one of the earliest printed texts of the Lecture and a scholarly chronological listing of hundreds of its performances and many of its variations, including information on dates, cities, theaters, actors, ticket prices, and critical reviews.
Author : Julian Jaynes
Publisher : Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
ISBN 13 : 0547527543
Total Pages : 580 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (475 download)
Download or read book The Origin of Consciousness in the Breakdown of the Bicameral Mind written by Julian Jaynes and published by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. This book was released on 2000-08-15 with total page 580 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: National Book Award Finalist: “This man’s ideas may be the most influential, not to say controversial, of the second half of the twentieth century.”—Columbus Dispatch At the heart of this classic, seminal book is Julian Jaynes's still-controversial thesis that human consciousness did not begin far back in animal evolution but instead is a learned process that came about only three thousand years ago and is still developing. The implications of this revolutionary scientific paradigm extend into virtually every aspect of our psychology, our history and culture, our religion—and indeed our future. “Don’t be put off by the academic title of Julian Jaynes’s The Origin of Consciousness in the Breakdown of the Bicameral Mind. Its prose is always lucid and often lyrical…he unfolds his case with the utmost intellectual rigor.”—The New York Times “When Julian Jaynes . . . speculates that until late in the twentieth millennium BC men had no consciousness but were automatically obeying the voices of the gods, we are astounded but compelled to follow this remarkable thesis.”—John Updike, The New Yorker “He is as startling as Freud was in The Interpretation of Dreams, and Jaynes is equally as adept at forcing a new view of known human behavior.”—American Journal of Psychiatry
Author : Dion Fortune
Publisher : Phoemixx Classics Ebooks
ISBN 13 : 3986775390
Total Pages : 200 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (867 download)
Download or read book Psychic Self-Defense written by Dion Fortune and published by Phoemixx Classics Ebooks. This book was released on 2021-12-12 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Psychic Self-Defense Dion Fortune - "Psychic Self-Defense" is one of the best guides to detection and defence against psychic attack from one of the leading occult writers of the 20th century. After finding herself the subject of a powerful psychic attack in the 1930's, famed British occultist Dion Fortune wrote this detailed instruction manual on protecting oneself from paranormal attack. This classic psychic self-defence guide explains how to understand the signs of a psychic attack, vampirism, hauntings, and methods of defence. Everything you need to know about the methods, motives, and physical aspects of a psychic attack and how to overcome it is here, along with a look at the role psychic elements play in mental illness and how to recognise them.
Author : William S. Mallios
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118099532
Total Pages : 207 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (18 download)
Download or read book Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets written by William S. Mallios and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-03-29 with total page 207 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A guide to modeling analyses for financial and sports gambling markets, with a focus on major current events Addressing the highly competitive and risky environments of current-day financial and sports gambling markets, Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets details the dynamic process of constructing effective forecasting rules based on both graphical patterns and adaptive drift modeling (ADM) of cointegrated time series. The book uniquely identifies periods of inefficiency that these markets oscillate through and develops profitable forecasting models that capitalize on irrational behavior exhibited during these periods. Providing valuable insights based on the author's firsthand experience, this book utilizes simple, yet unique, candlestick charts to identify optimal time periods in financial markets and optimal games in sports gambling markets for which forecasting models are likely to provide profitable trading and wagering outcomes. Featuring detailed examples that utilize actual data, the book addresses various topics that promote financial and mathematical literacy, including: Higher order ARMA processes in financial markets The effects of gambling shocks in sports gambling markets Cointegrated time series with model drift Modeling volatility Throughout the book, interesting real-world applications are presented, and numerous graphical procedures illustrate favorable trading and betting opportunities, which are accompanied by mathematical developments in adaptive model forecasting and risk assessment. A related web site features updated reviews in sports and financial forecasting and various links on the topic. Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets is an excellent book for courses on financial economics and time series analysis at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. The book is also a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners working in the areas of retail markets, quant funds, hedge funds, and time series. Also, anyone with a general interest in learning about how to profit from the financial and sports gambling markets will find this book to be a valuable resource.
Author : Todd B. Kashdan
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0147516447
Total Pages : 305 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (475 download)
Download or read book The Upside of Your Dark Side written by Todd B. Kashdan and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2015-09-01 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Audible Best Seller of 2017 Inc. 11 Great Business Books New York Magazine Best Psychology Books LinkedIn's 12 Books on Leadership to Read Two mavericks in the field of positive psychology deliver a timely message Happiness experts have long told us to tune out our negative emotions and focus instead on mindfulness, positivity, and optimism. Researchers Todd Kashdan, Ph.D., and Robert Biswas-Diener, Dr. Philos., disagree. Positive emotions alone are not enough. Anger makes us creative, selfishness makes us brave, and guilt is a powerful motivator. The real key to success lies in emotional agility. Drawing upon extensive scientific research and a wide array of real-life examples, The Upside of Your Dark Side will be embraced by business leaders, parents, and everyone else who’s ready to put their entire psychological tool kit to work.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 418 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (35 download)
Download or read book The Mirror of Taste, and Dramatic Censor written by and published by . This book was released on 1811 with total page 418 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A drama is appended to each number of v. 1-2
Author : Deborah Kutenplon
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135528292
Total Pages : 314 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (355 download)
Download or read book Young Adult Fiction by African American Writers, 1968-1993 written by Deborah Kutenplon and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-04-08 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive and up-to-dateThe first contemporary publication to go beyond examining broad themes and trends in the field, this timely volume looks closely at specific authors and texts. The book is comprehensive and as current as possible, covering works by African American authors for young adults published between 1968-1993-some 200 titles by close to 50 writers. In addition to established authors and bestselling titles, the coverage includes material overlooked by previous studies, such as works from small presses and talented new authors.Guidlines for evaluationAn extensive introduction reviews important milestones in this body of literature and analyzes noteworthy bibliographical and critical publications about such writing. It includes suggested guidelines for evaluating a work in terms of its direct and indirect treatment of such issues as race, gender, class, ability, age, sexuality, and sexual orientation. The book also offers specific guidance for determining the appropriate readership for a work with regard to age and gender.Unusually extensive annotationsThe main body of the book is an annotated bibliography, alphabetical by author, with the works arranged chronologically by publication date. The annotations are much more extensive than those in other bibliographies. Each annotation reads more like a full-length book review and is from one to two pages long and explores themes, plot and character development, evaluates the quality of the writing, judges the handling of issues of race, class, and gender, and provides a readership recommendation.Written in accessible language, this user-friendly book presents a wide range of factual information, evaluations, and analyses. It is a valuable tool for all teachers, librarians, counselors, and young adults
Author : 3M Company
Publisher : 3m Company
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 246 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 ( download)
Download or read book A Century of Innovation written by 3M Company and published by 3m Company. This book was released on 2002 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A compilation of 3M voices, memories, facts and experiences from the company's first 100 years.
Author : Joe Garner
Publisher : Sourcebooks, Inc.
ISBN 13 : 1570719748
Total Pages : 204 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (77 download)
Download or read book We Interrupt this Broadcast written by Joe Garner and published by Sourcebooks, Inc.. This book was released on 2002 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An illustrated book and two audio CDs provide actual news broadcasts and background information for 44 events in the 20th and 21st centuries.
Author : Sheila Mello
Publisher : J. Ross Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9781932159578
Total Pages : 300 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (595 download)
Download or read book Value Innovation Portfolio Management written by Sheila Mello and published by J. Ross Publishing. This book was released on 2006-09-15 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Value Innovation Portfolio Management' presents a pioneering new product-selection method based on high customer value, better business strategy alignment, and optical investment intensity - allowing businesses to find success more often with new products.
Author : Orion
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 0671762680
Total Pages : 293 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (717 download)
Download or read book Dreams written by Orion and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 1983-06 with total page 293 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From Simon & Schuster, Dreams is Orion's bedside guide to dream interpretation—including the hidden meanings and secrets. From abacus to zoo, Dreams is a concise dictionary of dreams and is your guide to understanding the knowledge that comes through to you in your dreams form the innermost depths of your being.
Author : Thomas Nelson Baker
Publisher : Oxford University Press on Demand
ISBN 13 : 0195120736
Total Pages : 271 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (951 download)
Download or read book Sentiment & Celebrity written by Thomas Nelson Baker and published by Oxford University Press on Demand. This book was released on 1999 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sentiment and Celebrity tells the story of a man the New York Times once called "the most talked-about author in America". A widely admired, if controversial master of the sentimental appeal poet and "magazinist" Nathaniel Parker Willis (1806-1867) was a pioneer in the modern business of celebrity. By charting the shape and thrust of the various controversies that surrounded Willis, this book shows how the cultural and commercial impulses that fostered the development of antebellum America's love affair with fame and fashion drew power and sustenance from the concurrent allure of genteel cultivation and sentiment.
Author : A. H. Noe
Publisher : Prabhat Prakashan
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 145 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)
Download or read book The Witches' Dream Book and Fortune-Teller written by A. H. Noe and published by Prabhat Prakashan. This book was released on 2023-10-01 with total page 145 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Enter the mystical realm of divination and enchantment with "The Witches' Dream Book and Fortune-Teller" by A.H. Noe, a fascinating guide to unlocking the secrets of the subconscious mind and exploring the realms of dreams and destiny. Prepare to be mesmerized by Noe's insightful interpretations and ancient wisdom as you embark on a journey of self-discovery and mystical exploration. In "The Witches' Dream Book and Fortune-Teller," A.H. Noe invites readers to delve into the mysteries of dream interpretation, fortune-telling, and spiritual guidance. Through a combination of ancient wisdom and modern insights, Noe offers readers a comprehensive guide to understanding the hidden meanings behind dreams, symbols, and omens. Explore the themes and motifs that permeate "The Witches' Dream Book and Fortune-Teller," from the power of intuition to the interconnectedness of the physical and spiritual worlds. Noe's exploration of these themes offers readers a deeper understanding of the forces that shape our lives and guide our destinies. Through insightful interpretations and practical advice, Noe helps readers unlock the secrets of their subconscious mind and tap into the wisdom of the collective unconscious. From deciphering dream symbols to interpreting tarot cards and astrology charts, each chapter offers valuable insights and techniques for self-discovery and personal growth. The overall tone and mood of "The Witches' Dream Book and Fortune-Teller" are as mystical and enchanting as the subject matter itself, blending moments of mystery with moments of insight and revelation. Noe's prose is both lyrical and evocative, inviting readers to explore the depths of their own consciousness and unlock the secrets of the universe. Since its publication, "The Witches' Dream Book and Fortune-Teller" has been hailed as a valuable resource for anyone interested in the mystical arts and the exploration of the subconscious mind. Noe's comprehensive guide offers readers a treasure trove of wisdom and insights that will inspire and empower them on their spiritual journey. Whether you're a seasoned practitioner or new to the world of divination and mysticism, "The Witches' Dream Book and Fortune-Teller" promises to enrich your understanding of the hidden realms of the mind and spirit. Join A.H. Noe on a journey of discovery and unlock the secrets of your dreams and destiny. Don't miss your chance to explore the mysteries of "The Witches' Dream Book and Fortune-Teller" by A.H. Noe. Let its ancient wisdom and mystical insights guide you on a journey of self-discovery and enlightenment.
