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Forecasting Chinas Future
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Book Synopsis Forecasting China's Future by : Roger Irvine
Download or read book Forecasting China's Future written by Roger Irvine and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-06-26 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China’s future development is likely to have a huge impact on twenty-first century global outcomes. It is therefore surprising that, thus far, so little attention has been given to comparing and evaluating expert forecasts of China’s future in the post-Mao era. This book presents an illuminating and comprehensive summary record of contrasting and competing expert forecasts and judgements about the major issues confronting China within four principal domains – political, economic, environmental, and international. After considering the principal forecasting methods available to experts, the author comments critically on the degree of success achieved in using those methods and emphasises the confusion created by the polarisation of opinion and by the failure of many experts to accept the high degree of uncertainty that characterises most of the key issues. The book recommends a new approach based on the study of a hierarchy of critical uncertainties and on continuing analysis of opposing expert opinions about these uncertainties. It emphasises the potential for both positive and negative outcomes for these critical uncertainties, and the importance of maximising the potential for positive outcomes through improved analytical and policy frameworks. Providing insights for specialists and non-specialists into the most critical issues that will determine China’s future direction, this book will be of particular interest to students and scholars of political, economic, environmental, and international relations issues in China and Asia, as well as to readers in business and government.
Download or read book China 2049 written by David Dollar and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2020-06-09 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How will China reform its economy as it aspires to become the next economic superpower? It’s clear that China is the world’s next economic superpower. But what isn’t so clear is how China will get there by the middle of this century. It now faces tremendous challenges such as fostering innovation, dealing with ageing problem and coping with a less accommodative global environment. In this book, economists from China’s leading university and America’s best-known think tank offer in depth analyses of these challenges. Does China have enough talent and right policy and institutional mix to transit from input-driven to innovation-driven economy? What does ageing mean, in terms of labor supply, consumption demand and social welfare expenditure? Can China contain the environmental and climate change risks? How should the financial system be transformed in order to continuously support economic growth and keep financial risks under control? What fiscal reforms are required in order to balance between economic efficiency and social harmony? What roles should the state-owned enterprises play in the future Chinese economy? In addition, how will technological competition between the United States and China affect each country’s development? Will the Chinese yuan emerge as a major reserve currency, and would this destabilize the international financial system? What will be China’s role in the international economic institutions? And will the United States and other established powers accept a growing role for China and the rest of the developing world in the governance of global institutions such as the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund, or will the world devolve into competing blocs? This book provides unique insights into independent analyses and policy recommendations by a group of top Chinese and American scholars. Whether China succeeds or fails in economic reform will have a large impact, not just on China’s development, but also on stability and prosperity for the whole world.
Download or read book China's Future written by David Shambaugh and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-03-11 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China's future is arguably the most consequential question in global affairs. Having enjoyed unprecedented levels of growth, China is at a critical juncture in the development of its economy, society, polity, national security, and international relations. The direction the nation takes at this turning point will determine whether it stalls or continues to develop and prosper. Will China be successful in implementing a new wave of transformational reforms that could last decades and make it the world's leading superpower? Or will its leaders shy away from the drastic changes required because the regime's power is at risk? If so, will that lead to prolonged stagnation or even regime collapse? Might China move down a more liberal or even democratic path? Or will China instead emerge as a hard, authoritarian and aggressive superstate? In this new book, David Shambaugh argues that these potential pathways are all possibilities - but they depend on key decisions yet to be made by China's leaders, different pressures from within Chinese society, as well as actions taken by other nations. Assessing these scenarios and their implications, he offers a thoughtful and clear study of China's future for all those seeking to understand the country's likely trajectory over the coming decade and beyond.
Book Synopsis China Into the Future by : W. John Hoffmann
Download or read book China Into the Future written by W. John Hoffmann and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China has become one of the most important forces in the world today, and this book combines views of her internal and external political relations, of the fundamentals of her economic development, and of the political, social and economic pressures that will influence her future.
Book Synopsis China's Futures by : Daniel C. Lynch
Download or read book China's Futures written by Daniel C. Lynch and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2015-03-11 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China's Futures cuts through the sometimes confounding and unfounded speculation of international pundits and commentators to provide readers with an important yet overlooked set of complex views concerning China's future: views originating within China itself. Daniel Lynch seeks to answer the simple but rarely asked question: how do China's own leaders and other elite figures assess their country's future? Many Western social scientists, business leaders, journalists, technocrats, analysts, and policymakers convey confident predictions about the future of China's rise. Every day, the business, political, and even entertainment news is filled with stories and commentary not only on what is happening in China now, but also what Western experts confidently think will happen in the future. Typically missing from these accounts is how people of power and influence in China itself imagine their country's developmental course. Yet the assessments of elites in a still super-authoritarian country like China should make a critical difference in what the national trajectory eventually becomes. In China's Futures, Lynch traces the varying possible national trajectories based on how China's own specialists are evaluating their country's current course, and his book is the first to assess the strengths and weaknesses of "predictioneering" in Western social science as applied to China. It does so by examining Chinese debates in five critical issue-areas concerning China's trajectory: the economy, domestic political processes and institutions, communication and the Internet (arrival of the "network society"), foreign policy strategy, and international soft-power (cultural) competition.
Book Synopsis Charting China's Future by : Chae-ho Chŏng
Download or read book Charting China's Future written by Chae-ho Chŏng and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2006 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China has scored huge successes during the last quarter century and has already become a global phenomenon. Twenty-five years ago, however, China's remarkable accomplishments were largely unforeseen. This volume, consisting of nine essays based on "best informed guesses" that are guided by the contributors' concrete understanding of current trends, posits that the future of China is an open-ended question that may not be answered with either a threat or a collapse. All of the contributors provide a set of scenarios and order them in terms of likelihood, including the seven factors they have identified as central to charting China's future: the Communist Party, local electoral reforms and rule of law, the federalist possibility, social unrest, foreign policy orientations, Sino-American relations, and the Taiwan conundrum. This book is a must-read for anyone who wants to understand China as it rises in power on the world stage.
Book Synopsis The Future of China's Bond Market by : Mr. Alfred Schipke
Download or read book The Future of China's Bond Market written by Mr. Alfred Schipke and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-03-13 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China’s bond market is destined to play an increasingly important role, both at home and abroad. And the inclusion of the country’s bonds in global indexes will be a milestone for its financial market integration, bringing big opportunities as well as challenges for policymakers and investors alike. This calls for a good understanding of China’s bond market structure, its unique characteristics, and areas where reforms are needed. This volume comprehensively analyzes the different segments of China’s bond market, from sovereign, policy bank, and credit bonds, to the rapidly growing local government bond market. It also covers bond futures, green bonds, and asset-backed securities, as well as China’s offshore market, which has played a major role in onshore market development.
Download or read book China's Futures written by James Ogilvy and published by Jossey-Bass. This book was released on 2000-01-24 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As it emerges from centuries of social, military, and political strife, China--which represents one fifth of the world's population and its third largest economy--is poised to play a major role in global business. But what will that role be? In this book, two experts, who have created business scenarios for some of the world's largest organizations--including Royal Dutch/Shell, AT&T, IBM, and Motorola--present three very informed versions of how China's future may unfold in the coming years and what it means to the rest of the world. These scenarios provide a foundation on which today's companies can build business strategies for years to come. Click here to read the preface from this book.
Book Synopsis The Future of Xi's China by : Alessia Amighini
Download or read book The Future of Xi's China written by Alessia Amighini and published by Ledizioni. This book was released on 2022-11-22 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the upcoming 20th Party Congress, which opens Sunday in China, Xi Jinping is expected to be confirmed as the country’s Secretary General for an unprecedented third term. At a time of international instability caused by the Covid pandemic and the war in Ukraine, as well as rising competition between international superpowers, the Chinese leadership is called to increase the country’s international standing, while ensuring economic growth at the domestic level. However, achieving these goals will not be without challenges.This Report analyses China’s hard road to international prestige and development. Which prospects for China’s economic growth? Which obstacles to its rise at the global level? To which extent can the Party steer the country’s direction?
Author :Joint Economic Committee Congress of the United States Publisher :Routledge ISBN 13 :1315293315 Total Pages :689 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (152 download)
Book Synopsis China's Economic Future by : Joint Economic Committee Congress of the United States
Download or read book China's Economic Future written by Joint Economic Committee Congress of the United States and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-12-05 with total page 689 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the latest Joint Economic Committee volume on the Chinese economy. With the current state of US-China relations and Hong Kong's accession in 1997, the study should provide policy makers in the USA with a useful tool in guiding economic policy toward China.
Book Synopsis Charting China's Future by : David Shambaugh
Download or read book Charting China's Future written by David Shambaugh and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-03-29 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Every day and everywhere, China figures prominently in global attention: companies and banks weigh billions in investments; hedge fund managers assess and speculate on downside risks; commodity traders and natural resource producers salivate over China’s energy appetite; intelligence agencies carefully track China’s growing global footprint; militaries monitor China’s growing military capabilities; diplomats grapple with a new assertiveness in China’s diplomatic posture; scholars try to understand the shifting dynamics and sources of China’s behaviour; while journalists track the latest changes in China’s economy, polity, and society. Charting China’s Future provides informed analysis on the complexities of today’s China, and where these complexities may lead, from some of the world’s leading Asia experts. The contributors have provided clear, intelligible, and forward-looking analyses, free of social science jargon and extensive footnotes. Probing into many of the key domestic and external issues facing China today from political, economic and social perspectives the book proffers a forward-looking analysis that will appeal to anyone with a professional, academic or personal interest in the big issues facing today's China and its interaction with the world. Readers will find much to contemplate about China’s future in this volume, and will gain a clearer sense of the key variables and possible trajectories of one of the most consequential countries on the planet.
Book Synopsis China's Futures by : James A. Ogilvy
Download or read book China's Futures written by James A. Ogilvy and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 159 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: James Ogilvy and Peter Schwartz have established international reputations as pioneers of scenario development. In this book, they draw on a range of studies conducted for companies anxious to understand the future consequences of the decisions they're making today with respect to China. Their insights into China's future will help global business managers, strategists and government policy professionals prepare for what many predict will be the Asian Century.
Download or read book China's Economic Future written by and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 548 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Fateful Decisions by : Thomas Fingar
Download or read book Fateful Decisions written by Thomas Fingar and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2020-05-19 with total page 535 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China's future will be determined by how its leaders manage its myriad interconnected challenges. In Fateful Decisions, leading experts from a wide range of disciplines eschew broad predictions of success or failure in favor of close analyses of today's most critical demographic, economic, social, political, and foreign policy challenges. They expertly outline the options and opportunity costs entailed, providing a cutting-edge analytic framework for understanding the decisions that will determine China's trajectory. Xi Jinping has articulated ambitious goals, such as the Belt and Road Initiative and massive urbanization projects, but few priorities or policies to achieve them. These goals have thrown into relief the crises facing China as the economy slows and the population ages while the demand for and costs of education, healthcare, elder care, and other social benefits are increasing. Global ambitions and a more assertive military also compete for funding and policy priority. These challenges are compounded by the size of China's population, outdated institutions, and the reluctance of powerful elites to make reforms that might threaten their positions, prerogatives, and Communist Party legitimacy. In this volume, individual chapters provide in-depth analyses of key policies relating to these challenges. Contributors illuminate what is at stake, possible choices, and subsequent outcomes. This volume equips readers with everything they need to understand these complex developments in context.
Book Synopsis The Next 100 Years by : George Friedman
Download or read book The Next 100 Years written by George Friedman and published by Anchor. This book was released on 2009-01-27 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Conventional analysis suffers from a profound failure of imagination. It imagines passing clouds to be permanent and is blind to powerful, long-term shifts taking place in full view of the world.” —George Friedman In his long-awaited and provocative new book, George Friedman turns his eye on the future—offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century. The Next 100 Years draws on a fascinating exploration of history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era—with changes in store, including: • The U.S.-Jihadist war will conclude—replaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia. • China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power. • A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia, and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly. • Technology will focus on space—both for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications. • The United States will experience a Golden Age in the second half of the century. Written with the keen insight and thoughtful analysis that has made George Friedman a renowned expert in geopolitics and forecasting, The Next 100 Years presents a fascinating picture of what lies ahead. For continual, updated analysis and supplemental material, go to www.geopoliticalfutures.com.
Book Synopsis The Coming Collapse of China by : Gordon G. Chang
Download or read book The Coming Collapse of China written by Gordon G. Chang and published by Random House. This book was released on 2001-09-15 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China is hot. The world sees a glorious future for this sleeping giant, three times larger than the United States, predicting it will blossom into the world's biggest economy by 2010. According to Chang, however, a Chinese-American lawyer and China specialist, the People's Republic is a paper dragon. Peer beneath the veneer of modernization since Mao's death, and the symptoms of decay are everywhere: Deflation grips the economy, state-owned enterprises are failing, banks are hopelessly insolvent, foreign investment continues to decline, and Communist party corruption eats away at the fabric of society. Beijing's cautious reforms have left the country stuck midway between communism and capitalism, Chang writes. With its impending World Trade Organization membership, for the first time China will be forced to open itself to foreign competition, which will shake the country to its foundations. Economic failure will be followed by government collapse. Covering subjects from party politics to the Falun Gong to the government's insupportable position on Taiwan, Chang presents a thorough and very chilling overview of China's present and not-so-distant future.
Download or read book China Airborne written by James Fallows and published by Vintage. This book was released on 2013-02-26 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From one of our most influential journalists, here is a timely, vital, and illuminating account of the next stage of China’s modernization—its plan to rival America as the world’s leading aerospace power and to bring itself from its low-wage past to a high-tech future. In 2011, China announced its twelfth Five-Year Plan, which included the commitment to spend a quarter of a trillion dollars to jump-start its aerospace industry. In China Airborne, James Fallows documents, for the first time, the extraordinary scale of China’s project, making clear how it stands to catalyze the nation’s hyper-growth and hyper-urbanization, revolutionizing China in ways analogous to the building of America’s transcontinental railroad in the nineteenth century. Completing this remarkable picture, Fallows chronicles life in the city of Xi’an, home to 250,000 aerospace engineers and assembly-line workers, and introduces us to some of the hucksters, visionaries, entrepreneurs, and dreamers who seek to benefit from China’s pursuit of aeronautical supremacy. He concludes by explaining what this latest demonstration of Chinese ambition means for the United States and for the rest of the world—and the right ways for us to respond.
