Forecasting Bacteria Levels At Bathing Beaches In Ohio

Author : Jason W. Marion
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (759 download)

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Download or read book Protecting Public Health at Inland Ohio Beaches written by Jason W. Marion and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Inland lakes are prone to contamination from a variety of sources within their watersheds. The changing environment can influence transport and fate of fecal indicators and may also influence the growth of harmful cyanobacteria, thereby occasionally creating health-related water quality concerns for recreational water users. To date, epidemiological and limnological studies pertaining to fecal indicators and harmful cyanobacteria have been limited with respect to inland U.S. lakes. The primary goals of this dissertation were to (1) evaluate illness risks associated with the fecal indicator E. coli, and (2) evaluate predictive tools potentially useful for the rapid prediction of E. coli densities and health-related concentrations of cyanotoxins in inland Ohio lakes. Through an epidemiological study and the collection of water quality data, predictive models for human illness and water quality advisories were developed. The relationship between water quality indicators and reported adverse health outcomes among users an inland Ohio beach were examined. Human health data collected via a prospective cohort study over 26 swimming days during the 2009 swimming season at East Fork Lake demonstrated that wading, playing or swimming in the water was found to be a significant risk factor for GI illness (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of 3.2; CI = 1.1, 9.0). Among water users (n = 806), E. coli density was associated with elevated GI illness risk where the highest E. coli quartile was associated with an aOR of 7.0 (CI = 1.5, 32). Upon observing a significant illness association with E. coli densities among swimmers, the need for rapidly estimating E. coli densities was determined to have merit. Current approaches for quantifying E. coli densities rely on culture-based methods that require 18 or more hours to obtain a result. Using rapidly measured water quality parameters (e.g., total phosphorus, secchi depth, chlorophyll A), univariable models for rapidly estimating health-related E. coli densities were developed and considered for inland Ohio lakes using 182 beach water samples collected from seven Ohio lakes. Univariable logistic regression revealed that deviations in lake-specific water quality as measured by total phosphorus (p 0.001), phycocyanin pigment (p = 0.018), and trophic state index (TSI) (p = 0.006) were predictive of E. coli levels exceeding recreational water quality criteria. Using the same samples, models were constructed for estimating cyanotoxin concentrations. Microcystin levels exceeding the 4 micrograms/L low risk threshold set by the World Health Organization were detected by ELISA in 48 of 182 (26.4%) samples. A multivariable logistic regression model using practical and real-time measures of in vivo phycocyanin and secchi depth was constructed to predict beach conditions exceeding the low risk threshold for microcystin. The model (p = 0.030) predicted microcystin levels4 micrograms/L with acceptable discrimination as indicated by the area under the ROC curve (0.795). This study indicates a significant health risk for inland beach users and demonstrates the potential to predict health-related hazard levels using practical real-time measures are possible, enabling opportunities for interventions that protect public health.