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Forecast Evaluation Report October 2013
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Book Synopsis Office for Budget Responsibiity: Forecast Evaluation Report by : Office for Budget Responsibility
Download or read book Office for Budget Responsibiity: Forecast Evaluation Report written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2013-10-09 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The backdrop to this report is: a real economy that, until very recently, has been weaker than expected; a labour market that has been stronger than expected in terms of employment, but weaker in terms of earnings growth; and a fall in public sector borrowing as a share of national income of around a third from its peak in 2009-10, with the deficit falling significantly in 2010-11 and 2011-12 but by much less in 2012-13. The report explains the OBR's June 2010 and March 2012 forecast errors, and the weakness of the real economy. GDP remains 3.3 per cent below its pre-recession peak, the disappointing performance over the last three years reflecting the weakness of domestic and external demand. Private sector employment growth has far exceeded forecasts. The March 2013 forecast for public sector borrowing predicted a figure of £119.8 billion in 2013-14, a reduction of £1 billion over the previous year; but the new forecast is for an increase of £4.2 billion increase over 2012-13.
Book Synopsis Forecast Evaluation Report October 2012 by : Office for Budget Responsibility
Download or read book Forecast Evaluation Report October 2012 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2012-10-16 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report sets out how the economy and the public finances have evolved since the beginning of 2010 and examines how this evolution compares to the forecasts published by the OBR at the time of the Coalition's first budget in June 2010 and subsequently. In this year's report the key question to address is why the OBR over estimated the pace of economic growth so significantly since the autumn of 2010 whilst public sector borrowing has fallen no more slowly than expected? The underestimation of economic growth reflects several factors: the impact of stubborn inflation on real consumer spending; deteriorating export markets; impaired credit conditions; euro area anxiety and demand uncertainly for business investment. Public sector net borrowing, on the other hand, fell much as expected. The public finances have been buoyed by the resilience of cash spending and the labour market, while local and central government have spent less on public services and administration than budgeted. Individual chapters cover: the economy; the public finances; conclusions and lessons to be learned. Annexes contain the decomposition of fiscal forecast errors and comparison with past official forecasts.
Book Synopsis Forecast Evaluation Report October 2016 by : Office for Budget Responsibility
Download or read book Forecast Evaluation Report October 2016 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by . This book was released on 2016-10-11 with total page 113 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Print and web pdfs available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications Web ISBN=9781474137607
Book Synopsis Forecast Evaluation Report October 2015 by : Office for Budget Responsibility
Download or read book Forecast Evaluation Report October 2015 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by . This book was released on 2015-10-13 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Print and web pdfs available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications Web ISBN=9781474125024
Book Synopsis The Office for Budget Responsibility and the Politics of Technocratic Economic Governance by : Ben Clift
Download or read book The Office for Budget Responsibility and the Politics of Technocratic Economic Governance written by Ben Clift and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2023-03-14 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Office for Budget Responsibility and the Politics of Technocratic Economic Governance is about the politics of economic ideas and technocratic economic governance. It is also a book about the changing political economy of British capitalism's relationship to the European and wider global economies. It focuses on the creation in 2010 and subsequent operation of the independent body created to oversee fiscal rectitude in Britain, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). More broadly, it analyses the politics of economic management of the UK's uncertain trajectory, and of British capitalism's restructuring in the 2010s and 2020s in the face of the upheavals of the global financial crisis (GFC), Brexit and COVID. A focus on the intersection between expert economic opinion of the OBR as UK's fiscal watchdog, and the political economy of British capitalism's evolution through and after Brexit, animates a framework for analysing the politics of technocratic economic governance. The technocratic vision of independent fiscal councils fails to grasp a core political economy insight: that economic knowledge and narratives are political and social constructs. The book unpacks the competing constructions of economic reason that underpin models of British capitalism, and through that inform expert economic assessment of the UK economy. It also underlines how contestable political economic assumptions undergird visions of Britain's international economic relations. These were all brought to the fore in economic policy debates about Britain's place in the world, which in the 2010s centred on Brexit. This book analyses OBR forecasting and fiscal oversight in that broader political context, rather than as a narrowly technical pursuit.
Book Synopsis HM Treasury: Autumn Statement 2013 - Cm. 8747 by : Great Britain. Treasury
Download or read book HM Treasury: Autumn Statement 2013 - Cm. 8747 written by Great Britain. Treasury and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2013-12-05 with total page 126 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite the improvement in the public finances, this year's Autumn statement is fiscally neutral and locks in lower spending by reducing departmental budgets for 2014-15 and 2015-16 by 1.1% but excluding local government, Security & Intelligence Agencies and HMRC. The Government will: cap the Retail Prices Index in business rates to 2% in 2014-15 and extend the doubling of Small Business Rate Relief to April 2014; will provide a business rate discount of £1,000 in 2014-15 and 2014-16 for retail properties with a rateable value of up to £50,000 and a 50% discount from business rates for new occupants of previously empty retail premises for 18 months; abolish National Insurance Contributions for under 21 year olds on earnings up £813 per week; remove cap on higher education student numbers; announce further reforms to make the most of the UK's science base; introduce a new tax relief for shale gas, and increase support for employee ownership and the creative industries; improve the UK's infrastructure with the National Infrastructure Plan 2013; and take further action to increase housing supply and support home ownership. Fuel prices will be frozen and the impact of policies on energy bills will be reduced. The average increase in rail fares will capped. Married couples & civil partners will be allowed to transfer £1,000 of their income tax personal allowance to their spouse where neither is a higher rate taxpayer.
Author :Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Treasury Committee Publisher :The Stationery Office ISBN 13 :9780215057006 Total Pages :200 pages Book Rating :4.0/5 (57 download)
Book Synopsis Budget 2013 by : Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Treasury Committee
Download or read book Budget 2013 written by Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Treasury Committee and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2013-04-22 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Treasury Committee's report on Budget 2013 focuses on: macroeconomy; the public finances; monetary policy; taxation; departmental spending; housing; energy policy; premature disclosure of budget information; Parliamentary timing. The report contains 46 conclusions and recommendations. Particular attention is paid to the Help to Buy housing policy, which is considered a work in progress which may have unintended consequences and may not help first-time buyers. The Committee poses a number of questions for the Chancellor on the policy. Overall, if the Government's priority was housing supply, its housing measures should have concentrated there. On energy it is unclear which Government Department is in the lead for energy policy and this lack of clarity must be addressed. The changes to the monetary policy remit announced by the Chancellor at the time of Budget 2013 create uncertainty. Tax complexity and instability remain of considerable concern. The Committee will monitor whether the Government anti-avoidance measures succeed in generating the revenue predicted of them. In addition, the Committee invited comments from three accounting bodies on how Budget 2013 meets the Committee's tax policy principles: basic fairness; supporting growth and encouraging competition; certainty, including simplicity; stability; practicality; and coherence.
Author :Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Treasury Committee Publisher :The Stationery Office ISBN 13 :9780215069474 Total Pages :64 pages Book Rating :4.0/5 (694 download)
Book Synopsis House of Commons - Treasury Committee: Autumn Statement 2013 - HC 826 by : Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Treasury Committee
Download or read book House of Commons - Treasury Committee: Autumn Statement 2013 - HC 826 written by Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Treasury Committee and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2014-03-08 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Around 43% of departmental expenditure limits are ring-fenced. As a consequence, public expenditure control - on the scale required to address the deficit - will be increasingly difficult. While ring-fencing reflects public priorities, those preferences are not equally strongly held for all ring-fenced areas. Support for the 33.5% cumulative real increase in aid over the course of this Parliament, for example, appears to be lower than for health and schools. The Committee also remains concerned about the impact of the Government's Help to Buy: Mortgage guarantee scheme. An abrupt end to the scheme could distort the market, as could announcements which radically alter people's expectations. Forecasts of additional revenue from many anti-avoidance measures are inherently extremely uncertain. The Committee warned in its report on the Autumn Statement 2012 that the forecast revenues from the UK-Swiss agreement - at £5.3 billion - were subject to uncertainty and that the proceeds may not meet expectations. These concerns appear to have been justified. Even after the event it is often very difficult to establish how much a particular measure has raised. The OBR should look again at how the Government accounts for projected revenues, based on previous experience. Even after the event it is often very difficult to establish how much a particular measure has raised. The more transparency about the yield, and therefore each proposal's effectiveness, the better
Book Synopsis Forecast Evaluation Report October 2015 by : Office For Budget Responsibility
Download or read book Forecast Evaluation Report October 2015 written by Office For Budget Responsibility and published by . This book was released on 2015-11-03 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A TSO version of a title previously published by HM Government.
Book Synopsis Forecast Evaluation Report October 2014 by : Office for Budget Responsibility
Download or read book Forecast Evaluation Report October 2014 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by . This book was released on 2014-10-29 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A TSO version of a title previously published by HM Government.
Book Synopsis Forecast Evaluation Report October 2016 by : Office for Budget Responsibility
Download or read book Forecast Evaluation Report October 2016 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by . This book was released on 2016-11-09 with total page 113 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A TSO version of a title previously published by HM Government
Book Synopsis IEO Evaluation Report by : International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
Download or read book IEO Evaluation Report written by International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-30 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) was established by the IMF’s Executive Board in 2001. It provides objective and independent evaluation of issues related to the IMF. The IEO operates independently of IMF management and at arm’s length from the IMF Executive Board. For more information on the IEO’s activities, visit the IEO website: www.ieo-imf.org.
Book Synopsis Budget 2013 by : Great Britain: H.M. Treasury
Download or read book Budget 2013 written by Great Britain: H.M. Treasury and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2013-03-20 with total page 118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Budget 2013 announces further detail on the Government's deficit reduction plans, new steps to ensure monetary policy continues to support the economy (including a new remit for the Monetary Policy Committee), and further measures to ease the long-term pressure on the public finances. Central government departmental expenditure limits will be reduced by £1.1 billion in 2013-14 and £1.2 billion in 2014-15, with the funds used to support housing. Schools and health budgets remain unchanged. Public sector pay awards will be limited to an average of 1 per cent. Budget 2013 is fiscally neutral. Action to promote growth includes: a reduction in corporation tax by 1 per cent in April 2015; from April 2014 giving businesses and charities an entitlement to a £2000 employment allowance per year towards their employer National Insurance contributions, designed particularly to help small businesses; capital spending increase by £3 billion a year; providing £1.6 funding to support strategies in 11 key sectors; creation of a Single Local Growth Fund; introduce a new housing scheme, Help to Buy comprising an extension of the First Buy scheme and mortgage guarantee for lenders who offer mortgages to people with a deposit of between 5 and 20 per cent on homes with a value up to £600,000; reducing the qualifying period for Right to Buy; doubling the existing affordable homes guarantee programme, to support a further 15,000 affordable homes in England by 2015. Other measures include: first £10,000 of income to be tax free in 2014-15; cancellation of planned fuel duty increases; a new tax-free Childcare Scheme and increased child support in Universal Credit; implement the £72,000 cap on reasonable social care costs; reduce beer duty by 2 per cent; crackdown on tax avoidance, with the Isle of Man, Guernsey and Jersey entering into tax information exchange agreements.
Book Synopsis The Conservative-Liberal Coalition by : M. Beech
Download or read book The Conservative-Liberal Coalition written by M. Beech and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-04-08 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a unique full term analysis of the Cameron-Clegg Government. From austerity to gay marriage, the Scottish referendum to combating IS, it brings together expert academic voices to provide rigorous yet readable insights on the key areas of government politics and the debates which will shape the 2015 general election.
Book Synopsis Economic and Fiscal Outlook March 2013 by : Office for Budget Responsibility
Download or read book Economic and Fiscal Outlook March 2013 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2013-03-20 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2017-18 and assesses whether the Government is on course to meet its medium-term fiscal objectives. The economy grew slightly more strongly in 2012 than expected but also shrank more than expected in the final quarter, and entered 2013 with reduced momentum. This leads the OBR to revise growth forecasts to 0.6 per cent in 2013 and 1.8 per cent in 2014. Thereafter the forecasts are unchanged rising to 2.8 percent by 2017. The pace of recovery is constrained by slow growth in productivity and real incomes, continued problems in the financial system, the fiscal consolidation and the outlook for the global economy. Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is expected to be broadly flat this and next, then will resume its fall in 2014-15. Underlying deficits in PSNB are forecast to be very close to £120 billion in 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14. Tax receipts are £5.1 billion lower but central government departments are expected to underspend by almost £11 billion this year. The Government has a more than 50 per cent chance of meetings its fiscal mandate. Other forecasts by the OBR include: the ILO unemployment rate to peak at 8.0 per cent in 2014 before falling back to 6.9 per cent in 2017. Real wage growth is expected to be negative in 2013, only marginally positive in 2014 before picking up to 2 per cent in 2016. The publication contains: Chapter 1: Executive summary; Chapter 2: Developments since the December 2012 forecast; Chapter 3: Economic outlook; Chapter 4: Fiscal outlook; Chapter 5: Performance against the Government's fiscal targets; Annex A - Budget 2013 policy measures.
Book Synopsis Forecasting: principles and practice by : Rob J Hyndman
Download or read book Forecasting: principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Book Synopsis Budget 2014 by : Great Britain: H.M. Treasury
Download or read book Budget 2014 written by Great Britain: H.M. Treasury and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2014-03-19 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Budget 2013 (HC 1033) announces further detail on the Government's deficit reduction plans, new steps to ensure monetary policy continues to support the economy with a new remit for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), and further measures to ease the long-term pressure on the public finances. Central Government departmental expenditure limits will be reduced by 1.1 billion in 2013-14 and by 1.2 billion in 2014-15, with the funds used to support housing. Schools and health budgets will remain unchanged; and public sector pay awards will be limited to an average of 1%. Budget 2013 is fiscally neutral - action to promote growth includes: (i) a reduction in corporation tax by 1% in April 2015; (ii) a 2000 employment allowance per year from April 2014 designed particularly to help charities and small businesses with employer's National Insurance contributions, (iii) a capital spending increase of 3 bi
