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Forecast Evaluation Report
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Book Synopsis Forecast Evaluation Report October 2012 by : Office for Budget Responsibility
Download or read book Forecast Evaluation Report October 2012 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2012-10-16 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report sets out how the economy and the public finances have evolved since the beginning of 2010 and examines how this evolution compares to the forecasts published by the OBR at the time of the Coalition's first budget in June 2010 and subsequently. In this year's report the key question to address is why the OBR over estimated the pace of economic growth so significantly since the autumn of 2010 whilst public sector borrowing has fallen no more slowly than expected? The underestimation of economic growth reflects several factors: the impact of stubborn inflation on real consumer spending; deteriorating export markets; impaired credit conditions; euro area anxiety and demand uncertainly for business investment. Public sector net borrowing, on the other hand, fell much as expected. The public finances have been buoyed by the resilience of cash spending and the labour market, while local and central government have spent less on public services and administration than budgeted. Individual chapters cover: the economy; the public finances; conclusions and lessons to be learned. Annexes contain the decomposition of fiscal forecast errors and comparison with past official forecasts.
Book Synopsis Office for Budget Responsibiity: Forecast Evaluation Report by : Office for Budget Responsibility
Download or read book Office for Budget Responsibiity: Forecast Evaluation Report written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2013-10-09 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The backdrop to this report is: a real economy that, until very recently, has been weaker than expected; a labour market that has been stronger than expected in terms of employment, but weaker in terms of earnings growth; and a fall in public sector borrowing as a share of national income of around a third from its peak in 2009-10, with the deficit falling significantly in 2010-11 and 2011-12 but by much less in 2012-13. The report explains the OBR's June 2010 and March 2012 forecast errors, and the weakness of the real economy. GDP remains 3.3 per cent below its pre-recession peak, the disappointing performance over the last three years reflecting the weakness of domestic and external demand. Private sector employment growth has far exceeded forecasts. The March 2013 forecast for public sector borrowing predicted a figure of £119.8 billion in 2013-14, a reduction of £1 billion over the previous year; but the new forecast is for an increase of £4.2 billion increase over 2012-13.
Book Synopsis Forecast Evaluation Report by : Great Britain. Office for Budget Responsibility
Download or read book Forecast Evaluation Report written by Great Britain. Office for Budget Responsibility and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Forecast Evaluation Report (FER) assesses the accuracy of the OBR's June Budget 2010 forecast against outturn for calendar year 2010 and fiscal year 2010-11. It allows the OBR to learn where source data, methodology and its forecasting could be improved. The latest outturn data show that public sector net borrowing is now estimated at £137 billion in 2010-11. This was £12 billion lower than the OBR forecast in June 2010. The FER shows that tax receipts were higher than forecast and government expenditure lower than forecast. There was, however, an overestimate of local authority spending. Locally financed non-investment spending is currently estimated at £22.6 billion for the year, £4.4 billion lower than forecast in June 2010. Rather than drawing down their reserves to cushion spending from the impact of financial pressures, local authorities appear to have added to them - perhaps in readiness for an even tighter squeeze ahead. More timely and accurate information on local authority behaviour would make it easier to keep track of the state of the public finances, and quarterly in-year estimates of local authority current spending, which recently became available for the first time from the Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG), will assist in this area. The FER sets out a number of other areas in which the OBR hopes to be able to improve its forecasting methods. These include recent improvements in balance sheet analysis, access to a new model for forecasting debt interest, and a review of HM Revenue and Customs' forecasting models for stamp duty land tax, alcohol duties and business rates.
Book Synopsis IEO Evaluation Report by : International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
Download or read book IEO Evaluation Report written by International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-30 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) was established by the IMF’s Executive Board in 2001. It provides objective and independent evaluation of issues related to the IMF. The IEO operates independently of IMF management and at arm’s length from the IMF Executive Board. For more information on the IEO’s activities, visit the IEO website: www.ieo-imf.org.
Book Synopsis Forecast evaluation report by : Office for Budget Responsibility
Download or read book Forecast evaluation report written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2011-10-13 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Forecast Evaluation Report (FER) assesses the accuracy of the OBR's June Budget 2010 forecast against outturn for calendar year 2010 and fiscal year 2010-11. It allows the OBR to learn where source data, methodology and its forecasting could be improved. The latest outturn data show that public sector net borrowing is now estimated at £137 billion in 2010-11. This was £12 billion lower than the OBR forecast in June 2010. The FER shows that tax receipts were higher than forecast and government expenditure lower than forecast. There was, however, an overestimate of local authority spending. Locally financed non-investment spending is currently estimated at £22.6 billion for the year, £4.4 billion lower than forecast in June 2010. Rather than drawing down their reserves to cushion spending from the impact of financial pressures, local authorities appear to have added to them - perhaps in readiness for an even tighter squeeze ahead. More timely and accurate information on local authority behaviour would make it easier to keep track of the state of the public finances, and quarterly in-year estimates of local authority current spending, which recently became available for the first time from the Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG), will assist in this area. The FER sets out a number of other areas in which the OBR hopes to be able to improve its forecasting methods. These include recent improvements in balance sheet analysis, access to a new model for forecasting debt interest, and a review of HM Revenue and Customs' forecasting models for stamp duty land tax, alcohol duties and business rates.
Book Synopsis IEO Evaluation Report by : International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
Download or read book IEO Evaluation Report written by International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-30 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) was established by the IMF’s Executive Board in 2001. It provides objective and independent evaluation of issues related to the IMF. The IEO operates independently of IMF management and at arm’s length from the IMF Executive Board. For more information on the IEO’s activities, visit the IEO website: www.ieo-imf.org.
Book Synopsis Economic and fiscal outlook by : Office for Budget Responsibility
Download or read book Economic and fiscal outlook written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2010-11-29 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2015-16. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives and presents preliminary observations on the long-run sustainability of the public finances. Since the June forecast, the UK economy has recovered more strongly than initially expected. The GDP growth was greater than expected in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters, but that unemployment levels have risen to levels that the June forecast did not anticipate until the middle of 2012. In general the world economy has also grown more strongly. CPI inflation has remained slightly higher than expected in June, whilst public finances have performed as forecast. The interest rates on UK debt are lower than in June. The OBR forecasts that the economy will continue to recover from the recession, but at a slower pace than the recoveries of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. The publication is divided into 5 chapters with two annexes.
Book Synopsis Forecasting: principles and practice by : Rob J Hyndman
Download or read book Forecasting: principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Book Synopsis Predictability of Weather and Climate by : Tim Palmer
Download or read book Predictability of Weather and Climate written by Tim Palmer and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2014-07-10 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The topic of predictability in weather and climate has advanced significantly in recent years, both in understanding the phenomena that affect weather and climate and in techniques used to model and forecast them. This book, first published in 2006, brings together some of the world's leading experts on predicting weather and climate. It addresses predictability from the theoretical to the practical, on timescales from days to decades. Topics such as the predictability of weather phenomena, coupled ocean-atmosphere systems and anthropogenic climate change are among those included. Ensemble systems for forecasting predictability are discussed extensively. Ed Lorenz, father of chaos theory, makes a contribution to theoretical analysis with a previously unpublished paper. This well-balanced volume will be a valuable resource for many years. High-calibre chapter authors and extensive subject coverage make it valuable to people with an interest in weather and climate forecasting and environmental science, from graduate students to researchers.
Book Synopsis Forecast Evaluation Report October 2016 by : Office for Budget Responsibility
Download or read book Forecast Evaluation Report October 2016 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by . This book was released on 2016-10-11 with total page 113 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Print and web pdfs available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications Web ISBN=9781474137607
Book Synopsis Forecast Evaluation Report October 2015 by : Office for Budget Responsibility
Download or read book Forecast Evaluation Report October 2015 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by . This book was released on 2015-10-13 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Print and web pdfs available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications Web ISBN=9781474125024
Book Synopsis Office for Budget Responsibility by : Great Britain. Office for Budget Responsibility
Download or read book Office for Budget Responsibility written by Great Britain. Office for Budget Responsibility and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Office for Budget Responsibility by : Great Britain. Office for Budget Responsibility
Download or read book Office for Budget Responsibility written by Great Britain. Office for Budget Responsibility and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts by : Allan Timmermann
Download or read book An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts written by Allan Timmermann and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-03 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts. This paper conducts a series of statistical tests to evaluate the quality of the WEO forecasts for a very large cross section of countries, with particular emphasis on the recent recession and recovery. It assesses whether forecasts were unbiased and informationally efficient, and characterizes the process whereby WEO forecasts get revised as the time to the point of the forecast draws closer. Finally, the paper assess whether forecasts can be improved by combining WEO forecasts with the Consensus forecasts. The results suggest that the performance of the WEO forecasts is similar to that of the Consensus forecasts. While WEO forecasts for many variables in many countries meet basic quality standards in some, if not all, dimensions, the paper raises a number of concerns with current forecasting performance.
Book Synopsis Forecast Evaluation Report October 2015 by : Office For Budget Responsibility
Download or read book Forecast Evaluation Report October 2015 written by Office For Budget Responsibility and published by . This book was released on 2015-11-03 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A TSO version of a title previously published by HM Government.
Book Synopsis Forecast Evaluation Report October 2016 by : Office for Budget Responsibility
Download or read book Forecast Evaluation Report October 2016 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by . This book was released on 2016-11-09 with total page 113 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A TSO version of a title previously published by HM Government
Book Synopsis Forecast Evaluation Report October 2014 by : Office for Budget Responsibility
Download or read book Forecast Evaluation Report October 2014 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by . This book was released on 2014-10-29 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A TSO version of a title previously published by HM Government.
