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Forecast Evaluation Methods A Monte Carlo Investigation And An Application To The Predictability Of Interest Rates
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Book Synopsis Forecast evaluation methods: A Monte Carlo investigation and an application to the predictability of interest rates by : Frank Undorf
Download or read book Forecast evaluation methods: A Monte Carlo investigation and an application to the predictability of interest rates written by Frank Undorf and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2018-09-07 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2017 in the subject Economics - Statistics and Methods, grade: 1,0, University of Cologne (Institut für Ökonometrie und Statistik), language: English, abstract: This thesis overviews selected forecast evaluation tests and attempts to link the concept of testing equal mean squared error and forecast encompassing within a common simple regression framework. A Monte Carlo analysis provides size and power properties for both a model-free and model-based environment. In particular, the encompassing regression based test assessing the null hypothesis of equal mean squared error offers beneficial size and power properties compared to the Diebold-Mariano test, at least in a conditional homoskedastic small sample framework without autocorrelation. A simple application of several tests is provided by comparing different interest rate prediction models like a time series model, a linear model with macroeconomic indicators and a dynamic yield curve model. It turns out that simple time series specifications are hard to outperform for most of the comparisons. However, indicators like the German stock market index or the ifo expectation indicator provide useful information for future German government bond yields.
Book Synopsis Monte Carlo Simulation by : Christopher Z. Mooney
Download or read book Monte Carlo Simulation written by Christopher Z. Mooney and published by SAGE. This book was released on 1997-04-07 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Aimed at researchers across the social sciences, this book explains the logic behind the Monte Carlo simulation method and demonstrates its uses for social and behavioural research.
Book Synopsis Theory, Application, and Implementation of Monte Carlo Method in Science and Technology by : Pooneh Saidi Bidokhti
Download or read book Theory, Application, and Implementation of Monte Carlo Method in Science and Technology written by Pooneh Saidi Bidokhti and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2019-12-18 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Monte Carlo method is a numerical technique to model the probability of all possible outcomes in a process that cannot easily be predicted due to the interference of random variables. It is a technique used to understand the impact of risk, uncertainty, and ambiguity in forecasting models. However, this technique is complicated by the amount of computer time required to achieve sufficient precision in the simulations and evaluate their accuracy. This book discusses the general principles of the Monte Carlo method with an emphasis on techniques to decrease simulation time and increase accuracy.
Book Synopsis Monte Carlo Simulation with Applications to Finance by : Hui Wang
Download or read book Monte Carlo Simulation with Applications to Finance written by Hui Wang and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2012-05-22 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Developed from the author’s course on Monte Carlo simulation at Brown University, Monte Carlo Simulation with Applications to Finance provides a self-contained introduction to Monte Carlo methods in financial engineering. It is suitable for advanced undergraduate and graduate students taking a one-semester course or for practitioners in the financial industry. The author first presents the necessary mathematical tools for simulation, arbitrary free option pricing, and the basic implementation of Monte Carlo schemes. He then describes variance reduction techniques, including control variates, stratification, conditioning, importance sampling, and cross-entropy. The text concludes with stochastic calculus and the simulation of diffusion processes. Only requiring some familiarity with probability and statistics, the book keeps much of the mathematics at an informal level and avoids technical measure-theoretic jargon to provide a practical understanding of the basics. It includes a large number of examples as well as MATLAB® coding exercises that are designed in a progressive manner so that no prior experience with MATLAB is needed.
Book Synopsis The Efficacy of Term Structure Estimation Technique by : Mark J. Buono
Download or read book The Efficacy of Term Structure Estimation Technique written by Mark J. Buono and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The term structure of default-free interest rates is not directly observable in a market where government obligations of various maturities bear coupons at different rates, and where ordinary income and capital gains are subject to unknown and varying effective tax rates. Accurate knowledge of the term structure of spot rates and underlying forward rates is essential for financial research and practice. There are various methods for empirically estimating forward rates and numerous studies that test the accuracy of those methods. Yet, that accuracy cannot be ascertained without knowledge of the true underlying forward rates or the error distribution of those rates. With an unknown error distribution, the statistical estimation of forward rates may be biased. This study offers two innovations designed to improve term structure estimation. First, we use Monte Carlo simulation to generate data with known parameters, which are free of unknown biases. The synthetic data are used to test and compare the accuracy of competing methods in estimating the known forward rates. Second, the knowledge obtained from such tests should enable researchers and practitioners to select the best method for estimating unknown forward rates from empirical data. In contrast, estimation methods are currently selected based on their power to explain variations in bond prices. We provide evidence that the two procedures are poor substitutes. While a variety of estimation methods are good at explaining variations in bond prices, our findings reveal considerable differences among widely known methods in their ability to estimate forward rates.
Book Synopsis Monte Carlo Methods and Models in Finance and Insurance by : Ralf Korn
Download or read book Monte Carlo Methods and Models in Finance and Insurance written by Ralf Korn and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2010-02-26 with total page 485 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Offering a unique balance between applications and calculations, Monte Carlo Methods and Models in Finance and Insurance incorporates the application background of finance and insurance with the theory and applications of Monte Carlo methods. It presents recent methods and algorithms, including the multilevel Monte Carlo method, the statistical Rom
Book Synopsis Lectures on Monte Carlo Methods by : Neal Noah Madras
Download or read book Lectures on Monte Carlo Methods written by Neal Noah Madras and published by American Mathematical Soc.. This book was released on 2002 with total page 113 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monte Carlo methods form an experimental branch of mathematics that employs simulations driven by random number generators. These methods are often used when others fail, since they are much less sensitive to the ``curse of dimensionality'', which plagues deterministic methods in problems with a large number of variables. Monte Carlo methods are used in many fields: mathematics, statistics, physics, chemistry, finance, computer science, and biology, for instance. This book is an introduction to Monte Carlo methods for anyone who would like to use these methods to study various kinds of mathematical models that arise in diverse areas of application. The book is based on lectures in a graduate course given by the author. It examines theoretical properties of Monte Carlo methods as well as practical issues concerning their computer implementation and statistical analysis. The only formal prerequisite is an undergraduate course in probability. The book is intended to be accessible to students from a wide range of scientific backgrounds. Rather than being a detailed treatise, it covers the key topics of Monte Carlo methods to the depth necessary for a researcher to design, implement, and analyze a full Monte Carlo study of a mathematical or scientific problem. The ideas are illustrated with diverse running examples. There are exercises sprinkled throughout the text. The topics covered include computer generation of random variables, techniques and examples for variance reduction of Monte Carlo estimates, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and statistical analysis of Monte Carlo output.
Book Synopsis Student Solutions Manual to accompany Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Student Solutions Manual by : Dirk P. Kroese
Download or read book Student Solutions Manual to accompany Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Student Solutions Manual written by Dirk P. Kroese and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-01-20 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This accessible new edition explores the major topics in Monte Carlo simulation Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Second Edition reflects the latest developments in the field and presents a fully updated and comprehensive account of the major topics that have emerged in Monte Carlo simulation since the publication of the classic First Edition over twenty-five years ago. While maintaining its accessible and intuitive approach, this revised edition features a wealth of up-to-date information that facilitates a deeper understanding of problem solving across a wide array of subject areas, such as engineering, statistics, computer science, mathematics, and the physical and life sciences. The book begins with a modernized introduction that addresses the basic concepts of probability, Markov processes, and convex optimization. Subsequent chapters discuss the dramatic changes that have occurred in the field of the Monte Carlo method, with coverage of many modern topics including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo Variance reduction techniques such as the transform likelihood ratio method and the screening method The score function method for sensitivity analysis The stochastic approximation method and the stochastic counter-part method for Monte Carlo optimization The cross-entropy method to rare events estimation and combinatorial optimization Application of Monte Carlo techniques for counting problems, with an emphasis on the parametric minimum cross-entropy method An extensive range of exercises is provided at the end of each chapter, with more difficult sections and exercises marked accordingly for advanced readers. A generous sampling of applied examples is positioned throughout the book, emphasizing various areas of application, and a detailed appendix presents an introduction to exponential families, a discussion of the computational complexity of stochastic programming problems, and sample MATLAB® programs. Requiring only a basic, introductory knowledge of probability and statistics, Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Second Edition is an excellent text for upper-undergraduate and beginning graduate courses in simulation and Monte Carlo techniques. The book also serves as a valuable reference for professionals who would like to achieve a more formal understanding of the Monte Carlo method.
Book Synopsis Applications of Monte Carlo Methods to Finance and Insurance by : Thomas N. Herzog
Download or read book Applications of Monte Carlo Methods to Finance and Insurance written by Thomas N. Herzog and published by ACTEX Publications. This book was released on 2002 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Monte Carlo Methods by : Malvin H. Kalos
Download or read book Monte Carlo Methods written by Malvin H. Kalos and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-06-10 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This introduction to Monte Carlo methods seeks to identify and study the unifying elements that underlie their effective application. Initial chapters provide a short treatment of the probability and statistics needed as background, enabling those without experience in Monte Carlo techniques to apply these ideas to their research. The book focuses on two basic themes: The first is the importance of random walks as they occur both in natural stochastic systems and in their relationship to integral and differential equations. The second theme is that of variance reduction in general and importance sampling in particular as a technique for efficient use of the methods. Random walks are introduced with an elementary example in which the modeling of radiation transport arises directly from a schematic probabilistic description of the interaction of radiation with matter. Building on this example, the relationship between random walks and integral equations is outlined. The applicability of these ideas to other problems is shown by a clear and elementary introduction to the solution of the Schrödinger equation by random walks. The text includes sample problems that readers can solve by themselves to illustrate the content of each chapter. This is the second, completely revised and extended edition of the successful monograph, which brings the treatment up to date and incorporates the many advances in Monte Carlo techniques and their applications, while retaining the original elementary but general approach.
Book Synopsis Monte Carlo Methods in Financial Engineering by : Paul Glasserman
Download or read book Monte Carlo Methods in Financial Engineering written by Paul Glasserman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2004 with total page 624 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the reviews: "Paul Glasserman has written an astonishingly good book that bridges financial engineering and the Monte Carlo method. The book will appeal to graduate students, researchers, and most of all, practicing financial engineers [...] So often, financial engineering texts are very theoretical. This book is not." --Glyn Holton, Contingency Analysis
Book Synopsis The Monte Carlo Methods by : Abdo Abou Jaoudé
Download or read book The Monte Carlo Methods written by Abdo Abou Jaoudé and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2022-03-09 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In applied mathematics, the name Monte Carlo is given to the method of solving problems by means of experiments with random numbers. This name, after the casino at Monaco, was first applied around 1944 to the method of solving deterministic problems by reformulating them in terms of a problem with random elements, which could then be solved by large-scale sampling. But, by extension, the term has come to mean any simulation that uses random numbers. Monte Carlo methods have become among the most fundamental techniques of simulation in modern science. This book is an illustration of the use of Monte Carlo methods applied to solve specific problems in mathematics, engineering, physics, statistics, and science in general.
Book Synopsis A Primer for the Monte Carlo Method by : Ilya M. Sobol
Download or read book A Primer for the Monte Carlo Method written by Ilya M. Sobol and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-04-24 with total page 126 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Monte Carlo method is a numerical method of solving mathematical problems through random sampling. As a universal numerical technique, the method became possible only with the advent of computers, and its application continues to expand with each new computer generation. A Primer for the Monte Carlo Method demonstrates how practical problems in science, industry, and trade can be solved using this method. The book features the main schemes of the Monte Carlo method and presents various examples of its application, including queueing, quality and reliability estimations, neutron transport, astrophysics, and numerical analysis. The only prerequisite to using the book is an understanding of elementary calculus.
Book Synopsis The Application of Monte Carlo Methods to the Evaluation of Small Sample Properties of 3-stage Least Squares Procedure by : Jugal Kishore Sharma
Download or read book The Application of Monte Carlo Methods to the Evaluation of Small Sample Properties of 3-stage Least Squares Procedure written by Jugal Kishore Sharma and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Monte Carlo Methods by : J. Hammersley
Download or read book Monte Carlo Methods written by J. Hammersley and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-07 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This monograph surveys the present state of Monte Carlo methods. we have dallied with certain topics that have interested us Although personally, we hope that our coverage of the subject is reasonably complete; at least we believe that this book and the references in it come near to exhausting the present range of the subject. On the other hand, there are many loose ends; for example we mention various ideas for variance reduction that have never been seriously appli(:d in practice. This is inevitable, and typical of a subject that has remained in its infancy for twenty years or more. We are convinced Qf:ver theless that Monte Carlo methods will one day reach an impressive maturity. The main theoretical content of this book is in Chapter 5; some readers may like to begin with this chapter, referring back to Chapters 2 and 3 when necessary. Chapters 7 to 12 deal with applications of the Monte Carlo method in various fields, and can be read in any order. For the sake of completeness, we cast a very brief glance in Chapter 4 at the direct simulation used in industrial and operational research, where the very simplest Monte Carlo techniques are usually sufficient. We assume that the reader has what might roughly be described as a 'graduate' knowledge of mathematics. The actual mathematical techniques are, with few exceptions, quite elementary, but we have freely used vectors, matrices, and similar mathematical language for the sake of conciseness.
Download or read book Monte Carlo Methods written by Roman Frey and published by . This book was released on 2009-10 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an extensive treatment of the entire Monte Carlo simulation theory. Furthermore, the Monte Carlo technique is used for addressing the pricing of various interest rate derivatives in different term structure models by the simulation approach. With the rising complexity and diversity of upcoming derivative securities, analytically tractable or closed-form pricing methods are difficult to find or even inexistent. If the thoroughly popular lattice valuation approach additionally fails due to non-recombining characteristics, Monte Carlo simulation represents a powerful and flexible alternative pricing method. The goal of this paper is to discuss and implement the fundamentals of Monte Carlo methods and to introduce the wide use of this approach in finance, especially in interest rate derivative valuation. The paper is roughly divided into three parts. The first part focuses on random number generation and on increasing efficiency methods for Monte Carlo, such as variance reduction techniques or low-discrepancy sequences. In the following part different term structure models are developed and the link to the simulation theory is eventually established. In the third and final part some ordinary and extended Monte Carlo algorithms are implemented and corresponding simulations are run in order to analyze Bermudan swaption prices in detail. Even though Monte Carlo methods feature a relatively slow but given convergence rate, they remain a competitive tool in financial applications. They owe their rising popularity to a large extent to their flexibility and to recent progress in methods which improve their accuracy and precision in estimating quantities of interest. Moreover, some of the leading yield curve models are heavily relying on Monte Carlo techniques. Several extensions of the standard Monte Carlo approach, such as least-squares Monte Carlo, for instance, are able to overcome the early-exercise hurdle a.
Book Synopsis Sequential Monte Carlo Methods in Practice by : Arnaud Doucet
Download or read book Sequential Monte Carlo Methods in Practice written by Arnaud Doucet and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 590 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monte Carlo methods are revolutionizing the on-line analysis of data in many fileds. They have made it possible to solve numerically many complex, non-standard problems that were previously intractable. This book presents the first comprehensive treatment of these techniques.
