Fooled By The Winners

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Fooled by the Winners

Author : David Lockwood
Publisher : Greenleaf Book Group
ISBN 13 : 1626348812
Total Pages : 317 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (263 download)

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Book Synopsis Fooled by the Winners by : David Lockwood

Download or read book Fooled by the Winners written by David Lockwood and published by Greenleaf Book Group. This book was released on 2021-11-09 with total page 317 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fooled by the Winners will change the way you think about the stock market, health care, global warming, diets, lotteries, restaurants, and your siblings. It will reshape your perspective of the past and give you a clearer view of the future. Fooled by the Winners is a book about survivor bias, the cognitive error of focusing on the winners, the successes, and the living. But in many instances, we can learn more from those who have lost, failed, or died. After reading this book, you will understand how survivor bias is often used to deceive us. You will learn how to stop paying for financial services that promise more than they deliver, for health care that doesn’t make us healthier, for diets that don’t make us slimmer, and for advice books that don’t offer good advice. You will also come away with a different view of our past, including our perilous evolutionary journey and how history has often been written by the winners. You will come to understand how we are fooled by the winners in warfare, such as in the deployment of nuclear weapons and the most famous example of survivor bias—the missing Allied bombers of WWII. Previous studies of survivor bias have been inaccessible to most, housed in formula-laden statistical journals. But you won’t find any math or technical jargon here. David Lockwood, a former member of the faculty of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University, applies the concept of survivor bias to specific, real-world examples—minus the equations. Through compelling analysis and the real-life stories, this book demonstrates the deceptive influence of survivor bias in our daily lives and on our thinking.

Fooled by the Winners

Author : David Lockwood
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781632994448
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (944 download)

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Book Synopsis Fooled by the Winners by : David Lockwood

Download or read book Fooled by the Winners written by David Lockwood and published by . This book was released on 2021-10-19 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Fooled by Randomness

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher : Random House
ISBN 13 : 1588367673
Total Pages : 369 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (883 download)

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Book Synopsis Fooled by Randomness by : Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Download or read book Fooled by Randomness written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and published by Random House. This book was released on 2008-10-14 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year

The Winners

Author : Fredrik Backman
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 1982112816
Total Pages : 688 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (821 download)

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Book Synopsis The Winners by : Fredrik Backman

Download or read book The Winners written by Fredrik Backman and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2022-09-27 with total page 688 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Return to the close-knit, resilient community of Beartown with this “engrossing page-turner” (Woman’s World) about first loves, second chances, and last goodbyes—from the #1 New York Times bestselling author of Anxious People and A Man Called Ove. Over the course of two weeks, everything in Beartown will change. Two years have passed since the events that no one wants to think about. Everyone has tried to move on, but there’s something about this place that prevents it. The destruction caused by a ferocious late-summer storm reignites the old rivalry between Beartown and the neighboring town of Hed, a rivalry which has always been fought through their ice hockey teams. Maya Andersson and Benji Ovich, two young people who left in search of a better life, come home and joyfully reunite with their closest childhood friends. There is a new sense of optimism and purpose in the town, embodied in the impressive new ice rink that has been built down by the lake. Maya’s parents, meanwhile, are caught up in an investigation of the hockey club’s murky finances, and Amat—once the star of the Beartown team—has lost his way after an injury and a failed attempt to get drafted into the NHL. Simmering tensions between the two towns turn into acts of intimidation and then violence. All the while, a fourteen-year-old boy grows increasingly alienated from this hockey-obsessed community and is determined to take revenge on the people he holds responsible for his beloved sister’s death. He has a pistol and a plan that will leave Beartown with a loss that is almost more that it can stand. Discover what it means to forgive with this “hell of a conclusion to an outstanding series” (Booklist, starred review).

The Great Mental Models, Volume 1

Author : Shane Parrish
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0593719972
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (937 download)

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Book Synopsis The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 by : Shane Parrish

Download or read book The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 written by Shane Parrish and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2024-10-15 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.

The Winner's Curse

Author : Marie Rutkoski
Publisher : A&C Black
ISBN 13 : 1408858215
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (88 download)

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Book Synopsis The Winner's Curse by : Marie Rutkoski

Download or read book The Winner's Curse written by Marie Rutkoski and published by A&C Black. This book was released on 2014-04-10 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As a general's daughter in a vast empire that revels in war and enslaves those it conquers, Kestrel has two choices: she can join the military or get married. Kestrel has other ideas. One day, she is startled to find a kindred spirit in Arin, a young slave up for auction. Following her instinct, Kestrel buys him - and for a sensational price that sets the society gossips talking. It's not long before she has to hide her growing love for Arin. But he, too, has a secret and Kestrel quickly learns that the price she paid for him is much higher than she ever could have imagined. The first novel in a stunning new trilogy, The Winner's Curse is a story of romance, rumours and rebellion, where dirty secrets and careless alliances can be deadly – and everything is at stake.

Investigation of "preselected Winners" Sweepstakes Promotions

Author : United States. Congress. House. Select Committee on Small Business. Subcommittee on Activities of Regulatory Agencies
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 1432 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Investigation of "preselected Winners" Sweepstakes Promotions by : United States. Congress. House. Select Committee on Small Business. Subcommittee on Activities of Regulatory Agencies

Download or read book Investigation of "preselected Winners" Sweepstakes Promotions written by United States. Congress. House. Select Committee on Small Business. Subcommittee on Activities of Regulatory Agencies and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 1432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investigates use of sweepstake promotions, their fairness to both contestants and small businesses, possibility of fraud (including mail fraud), and impact of promotional mailings on postal system. Includes results of evaluation of contests conducted, and examples of promotional materials, v.1; Includes responses to committee questionnaire on sweepstakes practices from companies using sweepstakes promotions, v.2.

Incerto 4-Book Bundle

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher : Random House
ISBN 13 : 0812997697
Total Pages : 1377 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Incerto 4-Book Bundle by : Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Download or read book Incerto 4-Book Bundle written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and published by Random House. This book was released on 2016-01-26 with total page 1377 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. All four volumes—Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material—are now together in one ebook bundle. ANTIFRAGILE “Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides.”—The Wall Street Journal Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors, as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them. Spanning politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style, Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. THE BLACK SWAN “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS “[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”—Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill—the markets—Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. THE BED OF PROCRUSTES “Taleb’s crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems.”—Financial Times This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb’s major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical views of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness.

Everybody's Fool

Author : Richard Russo
Publisher : Vintage
ISBN 13 : 1101946962
Total Pages : 495 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis Everybody's Fool by : Richard Russo

Download or read book Everybody's Fool written by Richard Russo and published by Vintage. This book was released on 2016-05-03 with total page 495 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NATIONAL BESTSELLER • The Pulitzer Prize–winning author of Empire Falls returns to North Bath, the Rust Belt town first brought to unforgettable life in Nobody’s Fool. Now, ten years later, Doug Raymer has become the chief of police and is tormented by the improbable death of his wife—not to mention his suspicion that he was a failure of a husband. Meanwhile, the irrepressible Sully has come into a small fortune, but is suddenly faced with a VA cardiologist’s estimate that he only has a year or two left to live. As Sully frantically works to keep the bad news from the important people in his life, we are reunited with his son and grandson . . . with Ruth, the married woman with whom he carried on for years . . . and with the hapless Rub Squeers, who worries that he and Sully aren’t still best friends. Filled with humor, heart, and hard-luck characters you can’t help but love, Everybody’s Fool is a crowning achievement from one of the great storytellers of our time. Look for Everybody’s Fool, available now, and Somebody’s Fool, coming soon.

Fooled by Randomness

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher : Editeurs divers USA
ISBN 13 : 0399590455
Total Pages : 1570 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (995 download)

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Book Synopsis Fooled by Randomness by : Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Download or read book Fooled by Randomness written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and published by Editeurs divers USA. This book was released on 2016 with total page 1570 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don't understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. All four volumes--Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material--are now together in one boxed set. ANTIFRAGILE "Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides."--The Wall Street Journal Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls "antifragile" is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors, as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them. Spanning politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style, Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. THE BLACK SWAN "[A book] that altered modern thinking."--The Times (London) A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet we--especially the experts--are blind to them. FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS "[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther's ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church."--Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill--the markets--Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. THE BED OF PROCRUSTES "Taleb's crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems."--Financial Times This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb's major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical views of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness.

The Fool of the World and the Flying Ship

Author :
Publisher : Macmillan
ISBN 13 : 0374424381
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (744 download)

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Book Synopsis The Fool of the World and the Flying Ship by :

Download or read book The Fool of the World and the Flying Ship written by and published by Macmillan. This book was released on 1987-05 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When the Czar proclaims that he will marry his daughter to the man who brings him a flying ship, the Fool of the World sets out to try his luck and meets some unusual companions on the way.

Fool's Year

Author : Berrich36
Publisher : XinXii
ISBN 13 : 1005618046
Total Pages : 542 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (56 download)

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Book Synopsis Fool's Year by : Berrich36

Download or read book Fool's Year written by Berrich36 and published by XinXii. This book was released on 2021-04-16 with total page 542 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sonya turns 30. A rented apartment, eternal dissatisfaction with weight, work as an assistant, hopeless love for the boss and complete loneliness - there is nothing to rejoice at. Desperate, she makes a promise to herself to improve her life within a year. Let’s started! In her dreams, she sees a prince on a white horse, taking her to a beautiful castle on the top of a hill ... But every date turns into disaster ... in the fight against excess weight, weight stubbornly wins ... and the new boss just takes out the brain! Meanwhile, Sonya has a new neighbor - 22 years old, blond, sloven ... Contains obscene language. This book is written based on real events. All coincidences with real-life people and bosses should be considered not accidental.

Assassin's Fate

Author : Robin Hobb
Publisher : Random House
ISBN 13 : 0593725484
Total Pages : 993 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (937 download)

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Book Synopsis Assassin's Fate by : Robin Hobb

Download or read book Assassin's Fate written by Robin Hobb and published by Random House. This book was released on 2024-08-13 with total page 993 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • The stunning conclusion to Robin Hobb’s Fitz and the Fool trilogy, which began with Fool’s Assassin and Fool’s Quest “Every new Robin Hobb novel is a cause for celebration. Along with millions of her other fans, I delight in every visit to the Six Duchies, the Rain Wilds, and the Out Islands, and can’t wait to see where she’ll take me next.”—George R. R. Martin More than twenty years ago, the first epic fantasy novel featuring FitzChivalry Farseer and his mysterious, often maddening friend the Fool struck like a bolt of brilliant lightning. Now New York Times bestselling author Robin Hobb brings to a momentous close the third trilogy featuring these beloved characters in a novel of unsurpassed artistry that is sure to endure as one of the great masterworks of the genre. Fitz’s young daughter, Bee, has been kidnapped by the Servants, a secret society whose members not only dream of possible futures but use their prophecies to add to their wealth and influence. Bee plays a crucial part in these dreams—but just what part remains uncertain. As Bee is dragged by her sadistic captors across half the world, Fitz and the Fool, believing her dead, embark on a mission of revenge that will take them to the distant island where the Servants reside—a place the Fool once called home and later called prison. It was a hell the Fool escaped, maimed and blinded, swearing never to return. For all his injuries, however, the Fool is not as helpless as he seems. He is a dreamer too, able to shape the future. And though Fitz is no longer the peerless assassin of his youth, he remains a man to be reckoned with—deadly with blades and poison, and adept in Farseer magic. And their goal is simple: to make sure not a single Servant survives their scourge.

Fools: Stories

Author : Joan Silber
Publisher : W. W. Norton
ISBN 13 : 0393088707
Total Pages : 257 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (93 download)

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Book Synopsis Fools: Stories by : Joan Silber

Download or read book Fools: Stories written by Joan Silber and published by W. W. Norton. This book was released on 2013-05-13 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A dazzling new collection of interconnected stories by the National Book Award finalist. When is it wise to be a fool for something? What makes people want to be better than they are? From New York to India to Paris, from the Catholic Worker movement to Occupy Wall Street, the characters in Joan Silber’s dazzling new story cycle tackle this question head-on. Vera, the shy, anarchist daughter of missionary parents, leaves her family for love and activism in New York. A generation later, her own doubting daughter insists on the truth of being of two minds, even in marriage. The adulterous son of a Florida hotel owner steals money from his family and departs for Paris, where he takes up with a young woman and finds himself outsmarted in turn. Fools ponders the circle of winners and losers, dupers and duped, and the price we pay for our beliefs. Fools is a luminous, intelligent, and rewarding work of fiction from the author for whom the Boston Globe said, "No other writer can make a few small decisions ripple across the globe, and across time, with more subtlety and power."

Always Room for One More

Author : Sorche Nic Leodhas
Publisher : Macmillan
ISBN 13 : 9780805003314
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis Always Room for One More by : Sorche Nic Leodhas

Download or read book Always Room for One More written by Sorche Nic Leodhas and published by Macmillan. This book was released on 1965-09-15 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Children's story based on the Scottish ballad of the same title.

Fool's Errand

Author : Eulalie Spence
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (31 download)

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Book Synopsis Fool's Errand by : Eulalie Spence

Download or read book Fool's Errand written by Eulalie Spence and published by . This book was released on 1927 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Journal of An Uncultured Fool

Author : John Megre Shields
Publisher : KDP
ISBN 13 : 1095323180
Total Pages : 276 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (953 download)

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Book Synopsis The Journal of An Uncultured Fool by : John Megre Shields

Download or read book The Journal of An Uncultured Fool written by John Megre Shields and published by KDP. This book was released on with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A young wanderer on the threshold of adulthood scribbles events involved in his personal perspective progression via exposure to multifarious novel external environments. Travelling from the lows to the highs of the natural and economical worlds, a wider lens through which to view the vicissitudes of existence is acquired.