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Fiscal Deficits Public Debt And Sovereign Bond Yields
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Book Synopsis Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields by : Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar
Download or read book Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields written by Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-08-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent sharp increase in fiscal deficits and government debt in many countries raises questions regarding their impact on long-term sovereign bond yields. While economic theory suggests that this impact is likely to be adverse, empirical results have been less clear cut, have generally ignored nonlinear effects of deficits and debt through some other key determinants of yields, and have been mostly confined to advanced economies. This paper reexamines the impact of fiscal deficits and public debt on long-term interest rates during 1980 - 2008, taking into account a wide range of country-specific factors, for a panel of 31 advanced and emerging market economies. It finds that higher deficits and public debt lead to a significant increase in long-term interest rates, with the precise magnitude dependent on initial fiscal, institutional and other structural conditions, as well as spillovers from global financial markets. Taking into account these factors suggests that large fiscal deficits and public debts are likely to put substantial upward pressures on sovereign bond yields in many advanced economies over the medium term.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Positions and Government Bond Yields in OECD Countries by : Joseph W. Gruber
Download or read book Fiscal Positions and Government Bond Yields in OECD Countries written by Joseph W. Gruber and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2011-04 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Examines the impact of fiscal positions, both the level of debt and the fiscal balance, on long-term gov't. bond yields in the Org. for Econ. Cooperation and Development (OECD). In order to control for the endogenity of fiscal positions to the business cycle. the authors utilize forward projections of fiscal positions from the OECD's Economic Outlook. In a panel regression over the period from 1988 to 2007, they find a robust and significant effect of fiscal performance on long-term bond yields. The marginal effect of the projected deterioration of fiscal positions associated with the recent financial crisis is to add about 60 basis points to U.S. bond yields by 2015, with effects on other G7 bond yields generally being smaller. Illus. This is a print on demand report.
Book Synopsis The Outlook for Financing Japan's Public Debt by : Kiichi Tokuoka
Download or read book The Outlook for Financing Japan's Public Debt written by Kiichi Tokuoka and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite the rapid rise in public debt and large fiscal deficits, Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields have remained fairly stable. Possible factors include: Japan's sizeable pool of household savings, presence of large and stable institutional investors, and strong home bias. These factors are likely to persist for some time, but going forward, the market's capacity to absorb debt is likely to diminish, as population aging reduces savings inflows and financial reforms enhance risk appetite. This could in turn strengthen the link between JGB yields and the stock of public debt. In light of these structural changes in the market, fiscal consolidation will be key for maintaining market stability.
Book Synopsis Long-Run and Short-Run Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies by : Mr.Tigran Poghosyan
Download or read book Long-Run and Short-Run Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies written by Mr.Tigran Poghosyan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-08 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze determinants of sovereign bond yields in 22 advanced economies over the 1980-2010 period using panel cointegration techniques. The application of cointegration methodology allows distinguishing between long-run (debt-to-GDP ratio, potential growth) and short-run (inflation, short-term interest rates, etc.) determinants of sovereign borrowing costs. We find that in the long-run, government bond yields increase by about 2 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in government debt-to-GDP ratio and by about 45 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in potential growth rate. In the short-run, sovereign bond yields deviate from the level determined by the long-run fundamentals, but about half of the deviation adjusts in one year. When considering the impact of the global financial crisis on sovereign borrowing costs in euro area countries, the estimations suggest that spreads against Germany in some European periphery countries exceeded the level determined by fundamentals in the aftermath of the crisis, while some North European countries have benefited from “safe haven” flows.
Book Synopsis Bond Yields in Emerging Economies by : Laura Jaramillo
Download or read book Bond Yields in Emerging Economies written by Laura Jaramillo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While many studies have looked into the determinants of yields on externally issued sovereign bonds of emerging economies, analysis of domestically issued bonds has hitherto been limited, despite their growing relevance. This paper finds that the extent to which fiscal variables affect domestic bond yields in emerging economies depends on the level of global risk aversion. During tranquil times in global markets, fiscal variables do not seem to be a significant determinant of domestic bond yields in emerging economies. However, when market participants are on edge, they pay greater attention to country-specific fiscal fundamentals, revealing greater alertness about default risk.
Book Synopsis Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads by : Iva Petrova
Download or read book Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads written by Iva Petrova and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyses the determimants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads by examining the short and long-run effects of fundamental (macroeconomic) and temporary (financial market) factors on these spreads. During the current global financial and economic crisis, sovereign bond spreads widened dramatically for both developed and emerging market economies. This deterioration has widely been attributed to rapidly growing public debts and balance sheet risks. Our results indicate that in the long run, fundamentals are significant determinants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads, while in the short run, financial volatility is a more important determinant of sperads than fundamentals indicators.
Book Synopsis Spillovers from U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Brazil and Mexico’s Sovereign Bond Yields by : Carlos Góes
Download or read book Spillovers from U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Brazil and Mexico’s Sovereign Bond Yields written by Carlos Góes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-10 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the transmission of changes in the U.S. monetary policy to localcurrency sovereign bond yields of Brazil and Mexico. Using vector error-correction models, we find that the U.S. 10-year bond yield was a key driver of long-term yields in these countries, and that Brazilian yields were more sensitive to U.S. shocks than Mexican yields during 2010–13. Remarkably, the propagation of shocks from U.S. long-term yields was amplified by changes in the policy rate in Brazil, but not in Mexico. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that yields in both countries temporarily overshot the values predicted by the model in the aftermath of the Fed’s “tapering” announcement in May 2013. This study suggests that emerging markets will need to contend with potential spillovers from shifts in monetary policy expectations in the U.S., which often lead to higher government bond interest rates and bouts of volatility.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Deficits and Current Account Deficits by : Mr.Michael Kumhof
Download or read book Fiscal Deficits and Current Account Deficits written by Mr.Michael Kumhof and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-10-01 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The effectiveness of recent fiscal stimulus packages significantly depends on the assumption of non-Ricardian savings behavior. We show that, under the same assumption, fiscal deficits can have worrisome implications if they turn out to be permanent. First, if they occur in large countries they significantly raise the world real interest rate. Second, they cause a short run current account deterioration equal to around 50 percent of the fiscal deficit deterioration. Third, the longer run current account deterioration equals almost 75 percent for a large economy such as the United States, and almost 100 percent for a small open economy.
Book Synopsis Public Debt, North and South by : Helmut Reisen
Download or read book Public Debt, North and South written by Helmut Reisen and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1989 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why has government debt risen since 1984 despite rationed foreign lending and efforts at fiscal consolidation? And how can the rising debt be stopped? Possible remedies are growth -oriented fiscal adjustment, improved debt management, and voluntary debt reduction.
Book Synopsis Market-Based Fiscal Discipline in Monetary Unions by : Mr.Morris Goldstein
Download or read book Market-Based Fiscal Discipline in Monetary Unions written by Mr.Morris Goldstein and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-09-01 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The concept of market-based fiscal discipline posits that a government which runs persistent, excessive fiscal deficits will face an increased cost of borrowing and eventually, a reduced availability of credit, and that these market actions will provide an incentive to correct irresponsible fiscal behavior. This paper presents new empirical evidence on market-based fiscal discipline by estimating the relationship between the cost of borrowing and fiscal policy behavior across U.S. states. We find that U.S. states which have followed more prudent fiscal policies are perceived by the market as having lower default risk and are therefore able to reap the benefit of lower borrowing costs.
Author :International Monetary Fund Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :9781557755551 Total Pages :444 pages Book Rating :4.7/5 (555 download)
Book Synopsis Coordinating Public Debt and Monetary Management by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Coordinating Public Debt and Monetary Management written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-04-15 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Edited by V. Sundararajan, Peter Dattels, and Hans Blommestein, this volume outlines strategies for managing public debt, developing government securities markets, and coordinating those activities with monetary management through legal, administrative, and operational arrangements. Both transition and market economies are surveyed. The analysis draws partly on the literature on the microstructure of markets and auction systems and on selected country experiences.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service by : Silvia Ardagna
Download or read book Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service written by Silvia Ardagna and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use a panel of 16 OECD countries over several decades to investigate the effects of government debts and deficits on long-term interest rates. In simple static specifications, a one-percentage-point increase in the primary deficit relative to GDP increases contemporaneous long-term interest rates by about 10 basis points. In a vector autoregression (VAR), the same shock leads to a cumulative increase of almost 150 basis points after 10 years. The effect of debt on interest rates is non-linear: only for countries with above-average levels of debt does an increase in debt affect the interest rate. World fiscal policy is also important: an increase in total OECD-government borrowing increases each country's interest rates. However, domestic fiscal policy continues to affect domestic interest rates even after controlling for worldwide debts and deficits.
Book Synopsis The Tax Treatment of Government Bonds by : Mr.John Norregaard
Download or read book The Tax Treatment of Government Bonds written by Mr.John Norregaard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-03-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In their effort to finance fiscal deficits at a reasonable cost, governments compete with other users of financial capital. Governments, however, are in the unique position that they are the only debt suppliers that can determine the taxation of debt instruments they issue. Following an overview of the current tax treatment of government bonds in OECD countries, this paper argues that—on purely economic grounds—there are no reasons for exempting interest on government bonds. Administrative difficulties in capturing interest on many other debt instruments in the tax net may, however, provide a rationale for doing so.
Book Synopsis Government Bonds and their Investors by : Mr.Jochen R. Andritzky
Download or read book Government Bonds and their Investors written by Mr.Jochen R. Andritzky and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-06-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper introduces a new dataset on the composition of the investor base for government securities in the G20 advanced economies and the euro area. During the last decades, investors from abroad have increased their presence in government bond markets. The financial crisis broke this trend. Domestic financial institutions allocated a larger share of government securities in their portfolios, as Japan has done since its crisis in the 1990s. Increases in the share held by institutional investors or non-residents by 10 percentage points are associated with a reduction in yields by about 25 or 40 basis points, respectively. The data show a varied lead-lag relationship between bond yields and investor holdings. Portfolio balance estimates suggest that a change in statutory or regulatory holdings of government securities to the tune of 10 percent of the outstanding stock causes expected returns to decline by 7 to 25 basis points.
Book Synopsis The Political Economy of Public Debt by : Richard M. Salsman
Download or read book The Political Economy of Public Debt written by Richard M. Salsman and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2017-02-24 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How have the most influential political economists of the past three centuries theorized about sovereign borrowing and shaped its now widespread use? That important question receives a comprehensive answer in this original work, featuring careful textual analysis and illuminating exhibits of public debt empirics since 1700. Beyond its value as a definitive, authoritative history of thought on public debt, this book rehabilitates and reintroduces a realist perspective into a contemporary debate now heavily dominated by pessimists and optimists alike.
Book Synopsis International Bond Markets (Routledge Revivals) by : David H. Gowland
Download or read book International Bond Markets (Routledge Revivals) written by David H. Gowland and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-10-08 with total page 185 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First published in 1990, International Bond Markets analyses how the markets in public-sector debt have developed and how they operate in a number of countries, including those with chronic budget deficits. Alongside a detailed introduction to government borrowing, chapters consider the bond markets and debt management systems of the U.S.A., Japan, France, Italy and the U.K. With governments around the world struggling to manage their huge deficits, this is a particularly relevant title to students observing the current global economic situation, and those with a general interest in public debt management and bond markets.
Book Synopsis NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004 by : National Bureau of Economic Research
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004 written by National Bureau of Economic Research and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2005 with total page 508 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Papers by leading researchers consider such questions as the effect of government debt on interest rates; technology shocks, demand shocks, and output volatility; and procyclical macroeconomic policies in developing countries.
