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Finex A New Workhorse Model For Macroeconomic Forecasting And Policy Analysis
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Book Synopsis FINEX - A New Workhorse Model for Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy Analysis by : Mr. Andrew Berg
Download or read book FINEX - A New Workhorse Model for Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy Analysis written by Mr. Andrew Berg and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-11-10 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a semi-structural macroeconomic model aimed at facilitating policy analysis and forecasting, primarily in countries with imperfect capital mobility and hybrid monetary policy regimes. Compared to earlier gap-trend projection models, the Forecasting Model of Internal and External Balance (FINEX) contains three main innovations: it accentuates external and internal balances; explicitly incorporates fiscal policy; and partly endogenizes the main trends. FINEX thus covers a broad set of policy instruments, including foreign exchange interventions (FXI), capital flow management measures (CFM), as well as common fiscal policy instruments. The model incorporates insights from the recent DSGE literature, while maintaining a more accessible gap-trend structure that lends itself to practical policy applications. While the paper refrains from drawing broad policy lessons, it emphasizes the model's ability to interpret recent data in terms of structural shocks and policy responses, thereby aiding policymakers in constructing coherent economic narratives and considering alternative scenarios.
Book Synopsis A Projection Model for Resource-rich and Dollarized Economy: The Democratic Republic of the Congo by : Victor Musa
Download or read book A Projection Model for Resource-rich and Dollarized Economy: The Democratic Republic of the Congo written by Victor Musa and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-06-21 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper introduces a semi-structural Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) tailored for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), highlighting its resource richness and high degree of dollarization. We provide an overview of the model's specifications to elucidate key features of the DRC economy and present its properties, evaluating its alignment with DRC data and assessing its goodness of fit. Additionally, the paper demonstrates the QPM's practical application through a counterfactual scenario, comparing policy recommendations with the actual policy responses of the Central Bank of the Republic of Congo to observed exchange rate and inflation pressures in 2023. Beyond the QPM, the paper showcases supplementary tools that enhance its utility for generating medium-term forecasts and developiong narratives in support of monetary policymaking. Specifically, we introduce the Nowcasting and Near-Term Forecast models, designed to assess the economy in real-time and predict short-term inflationary trends.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 : Total Pages :30 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (2 download)
Book Synopsis Ghana by : International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development
Download or read book Ghana written by International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-09-20 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This technical assistance (TA) report presents the outcomes of the multi-year Bank of Ghana (BOG) Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) TA project, conducted between late-2019 and mid-2024 over a total of seven missions, three in-person and four virtual. The project has focused on upgrading and building new institutional capacity for model-based policy analysis and macroeconomic forecasting, along its integration into monetary policy processes and external communications. BOG staff has made remarkable progress and built a strong skillset in providing analytical support to the policymakers. Model-based work plays an important role in the BOG internal deliberations and represents the key input in forward-looking monetary policy formulation, including in regular external communications. Remaining recommendations relate to ensuring FPAS work sustainability and further streamline external communications.
Book Synopsis A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: An Application to Morocco by : Daniel Baksa
Download or read book A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: An Application to Morocco written by Daniel Baksa and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-07-16 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper describes a semistructural macrofiscal approach to simulating and forecasting macroeconomic policies. The model focuses on only a few variables that are consistent with the New Keynesian framework. Thanks to its simplicity, it facilitates an initial and intuitive understanding of monetary and fiscal policy transmission channels, and their main impact on economic activity. The model is adapted to Morocco and we demonstrate its application with an illustrative scenario of policy responses to a slower-than-expected recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, under different monetary policy and exchange rate regimes.
Book Synopsis Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls by : Mokhtar Benlamine
Download or read book Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls written by Mokhtar Benlamine and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-02-14 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Central Bank of Morocco has been working on developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to support a gradual move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime and the eventual adoption of a full-fledged inflation-targeting (IT) regime. At the center of the FPAS is a quarterly projection model that was tailored for two different types of exchange rate regimes. Presently, the fixed exchange rate model version is to be used during the pre-IT period, while the flexible exchange rate model version is to be used to prepare alternative scenarios for monetary policy decision makers to discuss the potential policy implications of shocks under an IT regime.
Book Synopsis The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment by : Mr.Abdul Abiad
Download or read book The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment written by Mr.Abdul Abiad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-05-04 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output, both in the short term and in the long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment. Several factors shape the macroeconomic effects of public investment. When there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, demand effects are stronger, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio may actually decline. Public investment is also more effective in boosting output in countries with higher public investment efficiency and when it is financed by issuing debt.
Book Synopsis An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model for Sri Lanka by : Chandranath Amarasekara
Download or read book An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model for Sri Lanka written by Chandranath Amarasekara and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-25 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study documents a semi-structural model developed for Sri Lanka. This model, extended with a fiscal sector block, is expected to serve as a core forecasting model in the process of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s move towards flexible inflation targeting. The model includes a forward-looking endogenous interest rate and foreign exchange rate policy rules allowing for flexible change in policy behavior. It is a gap model that allows for simultaneous identification of business cycle position and long-term equilibrium. The model was first calibrated and then its data-fit was improved using Bayesian estimation technique with relatively tight priors.
Book Synopsis Wildlife DNA Analysis by : Adrian Linacre
Download or read book Wildlife DNA Analysis written by Adrian Linacre and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-03-27 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Clearly structured throughout, the introduction highlights the different types of crime where these techniques are regularly used. This chapter includes a discussion as to who performs forensic wildlife examinations, the standardisation and validation of methods, and the role of the expert witness in this type of alleged crime. This is followed by a detailed section on the science behind DNA typing including the problems in isolating DNA from trace material and subsequent genetic analysis are also covered. The book then undertakes a comprehensive review of species testing using DNA, including a step-by-step guide to sequence comparisons. A comparison of the different markers used in species testing highlights the criteria for a genetic marker. A full set of case histories illustrates the use of the different markers used. The book details the use of genetic markers to link two or more hairs/feather/leaves/needles to the same individual organism and the software used in population assignment. The problems and possibilities in isolating markers, along with the construction of allele databases are discussed in this chapter. The book concludes with evaluation and reporting of genetic evidence in wildlife forensic science illustrated by examples of witness statements.
Book Synopsis Sterilization of Money Inflows by : Jeffrey A. Frankel
Download or read book Sterilization of Money Inflows written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Modern Hyperinflation Cycle: Some New Empirical Regularities by : Jose Saboin
Download or read book The Modern Hyperinflation Cycle: Some New Empirical Regularities written by Jose Saboin and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-07 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a database of up to 62 variables for 196 countries over 57 years, a hyperinflation cycle has been characterized to propose a broader setting of stylized facts. Beyond the usual facts, the findings in this paper contribute to the literature of modern hyperinflations in that these cycles occur in contexts where there are (i) depressed economic freedoms, (ii) deteriorated socioeconomic conditions and rule of law, as well as (iii) high levels of domestic conflictivity and government instability. Despite social infraestructure factors improve during stabilization, they keep being substantially lower than the respresentative non-hyperinflation country, suggesting an important role for them in the occurrence of modern hypeinflations. Finally, the role of international financial assistance in stabilization was studied, noting that (i) a clear majority of hyperinflation countries used it, further improving their (ii) economic freedoms, and allowing themselves (iii) greater fiscal flexibility and (iv) more exchange rate stability.
Book Synopsis A Quantitative Model for the Integrated Policy Framework by : Tobias Adrian
Download or read book A Quantitative Model for the Integrated Policy Framework written by Tobias Adrian and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Wage Growth and Inflation in Europe: A Puzzle? by : Vizhdan Boranova
Download or read book Wage Growth and Inflation in Europe: A Puzzle? written by Vizhdan Boranova and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-12-20 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Wages have been rising faster than productivity in many European countries for the past few years, yet signs of underlying consumer price pressures remain limited. To shed light on this puzzle, this paper examines the historical link between wage growth and inflation in Europe and factors that influence the strength of the passthrough from labor costs to prices. Historically, wage growth has led to higher inflation, but the impact has weakened since 2009. Empirical analysis suggests that the passthrough from wage growth to inflation is significantly lower in periods of subdued inflation and inflation expectations, greater competitive pressures, and robust corporate profitability. Thus the recent pickup in wage growth is likely to have a more muted impact on inflation than in the past.
Book Synopsis The Morocco Policy Analysis Model: Theoretical Framework and Policy Scenarios by : Aya Achour
Download or read book The Morocco Policy Analysis Model: Theoretical Framework and Policy Scenarios written by Aya Achour and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-04-30 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Morocco Policy Analysis model (MOPAM) was created in the Bank Al-Maghrib to simulate the impact of external developments, domestic macroeconomic policies, and structural reforms on key macroeconomic aggregates. We describe its structure and demonstrate its operation on two medium-term scenarios: (1) fiscal consolidation to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio and (2) the effects of the COVID-19 shock, including the endogenous fiscal and monetary policy response.
Book Synopsis Every Human Intention by : Dreux Richard
Download or read book Every Human Intention written by Dreux Richard and published by Pantheon. This book was released on 2021-02-23 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A thoughtful, illuminating exploration of modern Japanese politics and culture through the eyes of an investigative reporter Dreux Richard presents post-Fukushima Japan in three illustrative parts. He follows members of Japan’s Nigerian community, whose struggles with a hostile immigration system lead to the death of a Nigerian immigrant in a Japanese detention center, investigated here for the first time. In Japan’s northernmost city, Richard goes door to door with the region’s youngest census employee, meeting the city’s elderly residents and documenting the stories that comprise the nation’s record-breaking population decline. Finally, he takes us into the offices of energy executives and nuclear regulators, as they fight to determine whether reactors threatened by earthquake faults will be permitted to restart after the Fukushima disaster, a conflict that brings the entire regulatory system to the brink of collapse. Six years in the making, Richard’s perceptive and probing account establishes him as an authority on his subjects, but he remains aware of his status as an outsider and interpreter for his readers. His long-term engagement with the personal lives of his sources revives the expatriate literary tradition of Lafcadio Hearn and Donald Richie, bringing its best qualities into a century where forensic investigation of wrongdoing and compassionate observation of its consequences are equally crucial. Through an exceptional range of approaches to an exceptionally complex society, Every Human Intention provides an understanding of today’s Japan that goes far beyond politics, truisms, and sensational arguments.
Book Synopsis Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework by : Mr.Jaromir Benes
Download or read book Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework written by Mr.Jaromir Benes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-14 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study a wide range of hybrid inflation-targeting (IT) and managed exchange rate regimes, analyzing their implications for inflation, output and the exchange rate in the presence of various domestic and external shocks. To this end, we develop an open economy new-Keynesian model featuring sterilized interventions in the foreign exchange (FX) market as an additional central bank instrument operating alongside the Taylor rule, and affecting the economy through portfolio balance sheet effects in the financial sector. We find that there can be advantages to combining IT with some degree of exchange rate management via FX interventions. Unlike "pure" IT or exchange rate management via interest rates, FX interventions can help insulate the economy against certain shocks, especially shocks to international financial conditions. However, managing the exchange rate through FX interventions may also hinder necessary exchange rate adjustments, e.g., in the presence of terms of trade shocks.
Book Synopsis For a New Generation by : Lee D. Kricher
Download or read book For a New Generation written by Lee D. Kricher and published by Zondervan. This book was released on 2016-08-02 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A New Generation Church is a church with attendees whose average age is at least as young as the average age of the community in which the church exists. Any church can become a New Generation Church that reaches and continues to reach the next generation. The Psalmist writes: We will not hide these truths from our children; we will tell the next generation about the glorious deeds of the Lord, about his power and his mighty wonders. (Psalm 78:4 NLT) No Christian would purposely hide the timeless truths of Christianity from the next generation. But often we do, not because of the substance of our church, but because of the approach of our church. For A New Generation is not about changing your church’s statement of faith or core beliefs. It is about evaluating and changing, as needed, your church’s programs, ministries and practices in order to more effectively connect with and stay connected with the next generation. Written for both church leaders and members, For a New Generation presents 5 practical strategies that will lay a foundation for a church to thrive for generations to come. It is based on the assumption that accepting the status quo is the greatest threat to your church’s core mission and, perhaps, to the long-term survival of your church.
Book Synopsis Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes by : Mr. Pragyan Deb
Download or read book Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes written by Mr. Pragyan Deb and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-18 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines empirically the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and their effects on health outcomes. We assemble a comprehensive and novel cross-country database at a daily frequency on vaccinations and various health outcomes (new COVID-19 cases, fatalities, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions) for the period December 16, 2020-June 20, 2021. Using this data, we find that: (i) early vaccine procurement, domestic production of vaccines, the severity of the pandemic, a country’s health infrastructure, and vaccine acceptance are significant determinants of the speed of vaccination rollouts; (ii) vaccine deployment significantly reduces new COVID-19 infections, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions, and fatalities, and is more effective when coupled with stringent containment measures, or when a country is experiencing a large outbreak; and (iii) COVID-19 cases in neighboring countries can lead to an increase in a country’s domestic caseload, and hamper efforts in taming its own local outbreak.
