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Feasibility Of Using Classification Analyses To Determine Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification
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Book Synopsis Feasibility of Using Classification Analyses to Determine Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification by : Jonathan W. Leffler
Download or read book Feasibility of Using Classification Analyses to Determine Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification written by Jonathan W. Leffler and published by . This book was released on 2004-03-01 with total page 121 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tropical cyclone intensity techniques developed by Dvorak have thus far been regarded by tropical meteorologists as the best identification and forecast schemes available using satellite imagery. However, in recent years, several ideologies have arisen which discuss alternative means of determining typhoon rapid intensification or weakening in the Pacific. These theories include examining channel outflow patterns, potential vorticity superposition and anomalies, tropical upper tropospheric trough interactions, environmental influences, and upper tropospheric flow transitions. It is now possible to data mine these atmospheric parameters thought partly responsible for typhoon rapid intensification and weakening to validate their usefulness in the forecast process. Using the latest data mining software tools, this study used components of NOGAPS analyses along with selected atmospheric and climatological predictors in classification analyses to create conditional forecast decision trees. The results of the classification model show an approximate R2 of 0.68 with percent error misclassifications of 13.5% for rapidly weakening typhoon events and 21.8% for rapidly intensifying typhoon events. In addition, a merged set of suggested forecast splitting rules was developed. By using the three most accurate predictors from both intensifying and weakening storms, the results validate the notion that multiple parameters are responsible for rapid changes in typhoon development.
Book Synopsis Diagnosing Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Through Rotated Principal Component Analysis of Synoptic-Scale Diagnostic Fields by : Alexandria Grimes
Download or read book Diagnosing Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Through Rotated Principal Component Analysis of Synoptic-Scale Diagnostic Fields written by Alexandria Grimes and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasts of rapid intensification (RI) within tropical cyclones continue to be a major challenge, primarily due to difficulty in determining the processes that distinguish RI and non-RI storms. In this study, the aim was to identify the most important RI/non-RI discriminatory variables in the North Atlantic basin, not only by level, but also spatial location relative to the tropical cyclone center. These important variables, identified using rotated principal component analysis on one-dimensional and three-dimensional GEFS reforecast base-state variables from 1985 to 2009, led to the identification of diagnostic fields with the largest variability between RI and non-RI events. Hierarchical clustering techniques performed on rotated PC loadings provided map types of RI and non-RI cyclones. Analysis of these composite map types, as well as composite derived fields including divergence, relative vorticity, equivalent potential temperature, static stability, and vertical shear, revealed interesting distinguishing characteristics between RI and non-RI events. Results suggested that vorticity in the mid-levels, divergence in the upper-levels, equivalent potential temperature, and specific humidity play critical roles in successfully discriminating between RI and non-RI storms. These findings give key insights to which variables should be used in developing a prognostic classification scheme to assist with operational forecasts of tropical cyclone RI.
Book Synopsis Prediction Enhancement Through Machine Learning of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification by : Alexandria Danielle Grimes
Download or read book Prediction Enhancement Through Machine Learning of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification written by Alexandria Danielle Grimes and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 126 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) is considered one of the most challenging problems for the TC operational and research communities and remains a top priority for the National Hurricane Center. Upon landfall, these systems can have detrimental impacts to life and property. To support continued improvement of TC RI forecasts, this study investigated large-scale TC environments undergoing RI in the North Atlantic basin, specifically identifying important diagnostic variables in three-dimensional space. These results were subsequently used in the development of prognostic machine learning algorithms designed to predict RI 24 hours prior to occurrence. Using three RI definitions, this study evaluated base-state and derived meteorological parameters through S-mode and T-mode rotated principal component analysis, hierarchical compositing analysis, and hypothesis testing. Additionally, nine blended intelligence ensembles were developed using three RI definitions trained on data from the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme- Rapid Intensification Index, Global Ensemble Forecast System Reforecast, and Final Operational Global Analysis. Performance metrics for the intelligence ensembles were compared against traditional linear methods. Additionally, a tenth ensemble was created using forecast data generated from Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations of TC RI events in the open North Atlantic and compared against linear methods. Results revealed modest classification ability of machine learning algorithms in predicting the onset of RI 24 hours in advance by including TC environmental spatial information of temperature and moisture variables, as well as variables indicative of ambient environmental interactions.
Book Synopsis The Importance of Synoptic-scale Processes in Diagnosing Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in the Atlantic Basin by : Alexandria Danielle Grimes
Download or read book The Importance of Synoptic-scale Processes in Diagnosing Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in the Atlantic Basin written by Alexandria Danielle Grimes and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This research identifies large-scale synoptic controls that are relevant for rapid intensification (RI) in the Atlantic basin. Spatial statistical analysis techniques were performed on NASA MERRA data from 1979--2009. Rotated principal component analysis (RPCA) was performed, looking for common patterns in the datasets. The RPC's were grouped using hierarchical clustering techniques, allowing for finding events similar in synoptic structure. The clustered events, representing the total RI and non-RI composites, were averaged yielding composite maps for different scenarios. To verify the results, a permutation test was done to show which variables are good distinguishers of RI and non-RI cases. These variables were used as input in two prediction schemes: logistic regression and support vector machine classification. The prediction scheme was a slight improvement in forecasting RI when using the synoptic variables mid-level vorticity, vertical velocity, low-level potential temperature and specific humidity, as the most significant in predicting RI.
Book Synopsis Analysis of Rapid Intensification Mechanisms in Producing and Altering the Distribution of Intense Convection in Three Numerically Simulated Tropical Cyclones by : Kathryn Ann Shontz
Download or read book Analysis of Rapid Intensification Mechanisms in Producing and Altering the Distribution of Intense Convection in Three Numerically Simulated Tropical Cyclones written by Kathryn Ann Shontz and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Tropical Cyclone Intensity Analysis Using Satellite Data by : Vernon F. Dvorak
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Intensity Analysis Using Satellite Data written by Vernon F. Dvorak and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Hurricanes and Typhoons by : Richard J. Murnane
Download or read book Hurricanes and Typhoons written by Richard J. Murnane and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2004-12-01 with total page 494 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book surveys the past, present, and potential future variability of hurricanes and typhoons on a variety of timescales using newly developed approaches based on geological and archival records, in addition to more traditional approaches based on the analysis of the historical record of tropical cyclone tracks. A unique aspect of the book is that it provides an overview of the developing field of paleotempestology, which uses geological, biological, and documentary evidence to reconstruct prehistoric changes in hurricane landfall. The book also presents a particularly wide sampling of ongoing efforts to extend the best track data sets using historical material from many sources, including Chinese archives, British naval logbooks, Spanish colonial records, and early diaries from South Carolina. The book will be of particular interest to tropical meteorologists, geologists, and climatologists as well as to the catastrophe reinsurance industry, graduate students in meteorology, and public employees active in planning and emergency management.
Author :Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Publisher :Cambridge University Press ISBN 13 :9781009157971 Total Pages :755 pages Book Rating :4.1/5 (579 download)
Book Synopsis The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate by : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Download or read book The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-04-30 with total page 755 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Book Synopsis Global Perspectives On Tropical Cyclones: From Science To Mitigation by : Johnny C L Chan
Download or read book Global Perspectives On Tropical Cyclones: From Science To Mitigation written by Johnny C L Chan and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010-04-30 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a completely rewritten, updated and expanded new edition of the original Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones published in 1995. It presents a comprehensive review of the state of science and forecasting of tropical cyclones together with the application of this science to disaster mitigation, hence the tag: From Science to Mitigation.Since the previous volume, enormous progress in understanding tropical cyclones has been achieved. These advances range from the theoretical through to ever more sophisticated computer modeling, all underpinned by a vast and growing range of observations from airborne, space and ocean observation platforms. The growth in observational capability is reflected by the inclusion of three new chapters on this topic. The chapter on the effects of climate change on tropical cyclone activity is also new, and appropriate given the recent intense debate on this issue. The advances in the understanding of tropical cyclones which have led to significant improvements in forecasting track, intensity, rainfall and storm surge, are reviewed in detail over three chapters. For the first time, a chapter on seasonal prediction is included. The book concludes with an important chapter on disaster mitigation, which is timely given the enormous loss of life in recent tropical cyclone disasters.World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate is indexed in SCOPUS.
Book Synopsis Statistics for Research by : Shirley Dowdy
Download or read book Statistics for Research written by Shirley Dowdy and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-09-26 with total page 646 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for the Second Edition "Statistics for Research has other fine qualities besides superior organization. The examples and the statistical methods are laid out with unusual clarity by the simple device of using special formats for each. The book was written with great care and is extremely user-friendly."—The UMAP Journal Although the goals and procedures of statistical research have changed little since the Second Edition of Statistics for Research was published, the almost universal availability of personal computers and statistical computing application packages have made it possible for today's statisticians to do more in less time than ever before. The Third Edition of this bestselling text reflects how the changes in the computing environment have transformed the way statistical analyses are performed today. Based on extensive input from university statistics departments throughout the country, the authors have made several important and timely revisions, including: Additional material on probability appears early in the text New sections on odds ratios, ratio and difference estimations, repeated measure analysis, and logistic regression New examples and exercises, many from the field of the health sciences Printouts of computer analyses on all complex procedures An accompanying Web site illustrating how to use SAS® and JMP® for all procedures The text features the most commonly used statistical techniques for the analysis of research data. As in the earlier editions, emphasis is placed on how to select the proper statistical procedure and how to interpret results. Whenever possible, to avoid using the computer as a "black box" that performs a mysterious process on the data, actual computational procedures are also given. A must for scientists who analyze data, professionals and researchers who need a self-teaching text, and graduate students in statistical methods, Statistics for Research, Third Edition brings the methodology up to date in a very practical and accessible way.
Book Synopsis General Meteorology by : Horace Robert Byers
Download or read book General Meteorology written by Horace Robert Byers and published by . This book was released on 1944 with total page 670 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis NOAA's Role in Space-Based Global Precipitation Estimation and Application by : National Research Council
Download or read book NOAA's Role in Space-Based Global Precipitation Estimation and Application written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2007-03-13 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) uses precipitation data in many applications including hurricane forecasting. Currently, NOAA uses data collected from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite that was launched in 1997 by NASA in cooperation with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency. NASA is now making plans to launch the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission in 2013 to succeed TRMM, which was originally intended as a 3 to 5 year mission but has enough fuel to orbit until 2012. The GPM mission consists of a "core" research satellite flying with other "constellation" satellites to provide global precipitation data products at three-hour intervals. This book is the second in a 2-part series from the National Research Council on the future of rainfall measuring missions. The book recommends that NOAA begin its GPM mission preparations as soon as possible and that NOAA develop a strategic plan for the mission using TRMM experience as a guide. The first book in the series, Assessment of the Benefits of Extending the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (December 2004), recommended that the TRMM mission be extended as long as possible because of the quality, uniqueness, and many uses of its data. NASA has officially extended the TRMM mission until 2009.
Author :Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Publisher :Cambridge University Press ISBN 13 :1107025060 Total Pages :593 pages Book Rating :4.1/5 (7 download)
Book Synopsis Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation by : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Download or read book Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2012-05-28 with total page 593 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. This Special Report explores the social as well as physical dimensions of weather- and climate-related disasters, considering opportunities for managing risks at local to international scales. SREX was approved and accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 18 November 2011 in Kampala, Uganda.
Book Synopsis El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate by : Michael J. McPhaden
Download or read book El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate written by Michael J. McPhaden and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-11-24 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth’s most dominant year-to-year climate variation The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change. Volume highlights include: Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting Future projections of ENSO and its impacts Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals. Find out more about this book from this Q&A with the editors.
Author :Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group II. Publisher :Cambridge University Press ISBN 13 :9780521634557 Total Pages :532 pages Book Rating :4.6/5 (345 download)
Book Synopsis The Regional Impacts of Climate Change by : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group II.
Download or read book The Regional Impacts of Climate Change written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group II. and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1998 with total page 532 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cambridge, UK : Cambridge University Press, 1998.
Book Synopsis Deep Learning in Medical Image Analysis and Multimodal Learning for Clinical Decision Support by : M. Jorge Cardoso
Download or read book Deep Learning in Medical Image Analysis and Multimodal Learning for Clinical Decision Support written by M. Jorge Cardoso and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-09-07 with total page 399 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the refereed joint proceedings of the Third International Workshop on Deep Learning in Medical Image Analysis, DLMIA 2017, and the 6th International Workshop on Multimodal Learning for Clinical Decision Support, ML-CDS 2017, held in conjunction with the 20th International Conference on Medical Imaging and Computer-Assisted Intervention, MICCAI 2017, in Québec City, QC, Canada, in September 2017. The 38 full papers presented at DLMIA 2017 and the 5 full papers presented at ML-CDS 2017 were carefully reviewed and selected. The DLMIA papers focus on the design and use of deep learning methods in medical imaging. The ML-CDS papers discuss new techniques of multimodal mining/retrieval and their use in clinical decision support.
Book Synopsis Economic Analysis of Climate-Proofing Investment Projects by : Asian Development Bank
Download or read book Economic Analysis of Climate-Proofing Investment Projects written by Asian Development Bank and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2015-09-01 with total page 201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change represents an increasing threat to the continued development of the people, preservation of ecosystems, and economic growth of Asia and the Pacific. Mainstreaming climate risk management in all aspects of development is thus key to an effective transition to climate-resilient development pathways. ADB's climate risk management framework aims to reduce risks resulting from climate change to investment projects in Asia and the Pacific. A key step in this framework is the technical and economic valuation of climate-proofing measures. This report describes the conduct of the cost-benefit analysis of climate proofing investment projects. An important message is that the presence of uncertainty about climate change does not invalidate the conduct of the economic analysis of investment projects, nor does it require a new type of economic analysis. However, the presence of uncertainty does require a different type of decision-making process in which technical and economic expertise combine to present decision makers with the best possible information on the economic efficiency of alternative designs of investment projects.
