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Export Spillovers From Global Shocks For The Middle East And Central Asia
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Book Synopsis Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia by : Mr.Alberto Behar
Download or read book Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia written by Mr.Alberto Behar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-05-09 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Estimates of export elasticities with respect to trading partner GDP indicate non-oil export volumes are relatively responsive while service exports are less responsive. Downward revisions to global GDP growth for 2011–14 have impeded export performance, and the possibility of disappointing GDP growth in Europe and emerging markets presents further downside risks for exports. The Maghreb countries are particularly sensitive to developments in Europe, while CCA countries are more susceptible to growth in the BRICS.
Book Synopsis Assessing the Fragility of Global Trade by : Ms.Yevgeniya Korniyenko
Download or read book Assessing the Fragility of Global Trade written by Ms.Yevgeniya Korniyenko and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-03 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Anecdotal evidence suggests the existence of specific choke points in the global trade network revealed especially after natural disasters (e.g. hard drive components and Thailand flooding, Japanese auto components post-Fukushima, etc.). Using a highly disaggregated international trade database we assess the spillover effects of supply shocks from the import of specific goods. Our goal is to identify inherent vulnerabilities arising from the composition of a country’s import basket and to propose effective mitigation policies. First, using network analysis tools we develop a methodology for evaluating and ranking the supply fragility of individual traded goods. Next, we create a country-level measure to determine each country’s supply shock vulnerability based on the composition of their individual import baskets. This measure evaluates the potential negative supply shock spillovers from the import of each good.
Book Synopsis State-Owned Enterprises in Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia: Size, Costs, and Challenges by : Mr. Ernesto Ramirez Rigo
Download or read book State-Owned Enterprises in Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia: Size, Costs, and Challenges written by Mr. Ernesto Ramirez Rigo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-09-20 with total page 153 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prior to the COVID-19 shock, the key challenge facing policymakers in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia region was how to generate strong, sustainable, job-rich, inclusive growth. Post-COVID-19, this challenge has only grown given the additional reduction in fiscal space due to the crisis and the increased need to support the recovery. The sizable state-owned enterprise (SOE) footprint in the region, together with its cost to the government, call for revisiting the SOE sector to help open fiscal space and look for growth opportunities.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484348834 Total Pages :657 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2013 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-10-08 with total page 657 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.
Book Synopsis U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to Middle East and Central Asia: Shocks, Fundamentals, and Propagations by : Giovanni Ugazio
Download or read book U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to Middle East and Central Asia: Shocks, Fundamentals, and Propagations written by Giovanni Ugazio and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-01-19 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We empirically examine U.S. monetary policy spillovers to the Middle East and Central Asia (ME & CA) region by decomposing U.S. interest rates changes into two orthogonal shocks: the pure monetary policy shock and the information news shock. Using a sample of 16 ME & CA countries, we find that when interest rates increase, the two shocks have opposite spillovers on the region. Tightening driven by contractionary monetary policy shocks hinders growth, while tightening driven by positive information news shocks boosts growth despite higher interest rates. Countries with weaker fundamentals face more negative spillovers from contractionary monetary policy shocks but may sometimes benefit more from positive information news shocks. Moreover, high oil prices mitigate both spillovers for oil exporters while global risk appetite amplifies both spillovers. Finally, we estimate a large degree of heterogeneity in the impact of the 2022 U.S. tightening cycle on ME & CA countries, with oil exporters with stronger fundamentals withstanding well the shock and oil importers with weaker fundamentals being hit the most.
Book Synopsis Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies by : Allan Dizioli
Download or read book Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies written by Allan Dizioli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-09 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After many years of rapid expansion, China’s growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term. This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China’s growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China’s slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China’s rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends.
Book Synopsis The Finance and Growth Nexus Re-Examined by : Mr.Adolfo Barajas
Download or read book The Finance and Growth Nexus Re-Examined written by Mr.Adolfo Barajas and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-29 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A large theoretical and empirical literature has focused on the impact of financial deepening on economic growth throughout the world. This paper contributes to the literature by investigating whether this impact differs across regions, income levels, and types of economy. Using a rich dataset for 150 countries for the period 1975–2005, dynamic panel estimation results suggest that the beneficial effect of financial deepening on economic growth in fact displays measurable heterogeneity; it is generally smaller in oil exporting countries; in certain regions, such as the Middle East and North Africa (MENA); and in lower-income countries. Further analysis suggests that these differences might be driven by regulatory/supervisory characteristics and related to differences in the ability to provide widespread access to financial services.
Book Synopsis Global Economic Prospects, June 2021 by : World Bank
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects, June 2021 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-08-03 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
Book Synopsis Subsidy Reform in the Middle East and North Africa by : Mr.Carlo A Sdralevich
Download or read book Subsidy Reform in the Middle East and North Africa written by Mr.Carlo A Sdralevich and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-09 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries price subsidies are common, especially on food and fuels. However, these are neither well targeted nor cost effective as a social protection tool, often benefiting mainly the better off instead of the poor and vulnerable. This paper explores the challenges of replacing generalized price subsidies with more equitable social safety net instruments, including the short-term inflationary effects, and describes the features of successful subsidy reforms.
Book Synopsis Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and Challenges Ahead by : Ms.May Y Khamis
Download or read book Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and Challenges Ahead written by Ms.May Y Khamis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-07-21 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Departmental papers are usually focused on a specific economic topic, country, or region. They are prepared in a timely way to support the outreach needs of the IMF’s area and functional departments.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498340040 Total Pages :18 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis IMF Research Bulletin, September 2014 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin, September 2014 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-10-11 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This issue of the IMF Research Bulletin opens with a letter from the new editor, Rabah Arezki. The Research Summaries are a "Primer on 'Global Liquidity'" (Eugenio Cerutti, Stijn Claessens, and Lev Ratnovski); and "Trade Integration adn Business Cycle Synchronization" (Kevin Cheng, Romain Duval, and Dulani Senevirante). The Q&A column looks at "Seven Questions on the Global Housing Markets" (Hites Ahir, Heedon Kang, and Prakash Loungani). September 2014 issue of the Bulletin also includes updates on IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore, as well as special announcements on new staff publications and the Fifteenth Annual Jacques Polak Research Conference. Also included is information on the latest issue of “IMF Economic Review” with a link to an article by Paul Krugman.
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Trade Competitiveness of the Middle East and North Africa by : Jos R. L pez-C lix
Download or read book Trade Competitiveness of the Middle East and North Africa written by Jos R. L pez-C lix and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2010-07-01 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past decade, four major developments in global economic integration have shaped trade policy and the economic performance of countries within the Middle East and North Africa region: the emergence of global supply chains, the growth of trade in services, the rise of China and India as major international trading powers, and regional integration. These developments, along with the labor and natural resource endowments of particular countries (some are resource-poor but labor-abundant, some resource-rich and labor-abundant, and some resource-rich and labor-importing), have influenced export diversification outcomes across the region. Yet these countries may not be taking full advantage of all of the opportunities the four new trends offer to them. 'Trade Competitiveness of the Middle East and North Africa: Policies for Export Diversification' examines the region's trade policy agendas and their results by focusing on the countries' response to these four key developments in international trade. As the region recovers from the global financial and economic crises, the book identifies reforms that could allow countries to further strengthen global production networks, benefit more from trade in services, better compete in external markets to face the rise of China and India, and reach the full potential of regional integration. If thoroughly implemented, especially by oil exporters, all of these reforms could help boost growth and job creation in the region.
Book Synopsis Global Waves of Debt by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475566212 Total Pages :56 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis Algeria by : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Download or read book Algeria written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-02-04 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that Algeria’s economic performance in 2013 has been satisfactory. Inflation, which reached 8.9 percent last year, has decelerated significantly in 2013 thanks to fiscal consolidation and prudent monetary policy. Real GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.7 percent in 2013 from 3.3 percent in 2012, reflecting a continued decline in hydrocarbon sector output and lower public spending. The current account surplus is expected to narrow to 1.1 percent of GDP in 2013, as robust domestic hydrocarbon consumption, together with declining prices, weighs on hydrocarbon exports and import growth remains sizeable.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498363288 Total Pages :135 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Global Financial Stability Report, April 2016 by : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report, April 2016 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-11 with total page 135 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The current Global Financial Stability Report (April 2016) finds that global financial stability risks have risen since the last report in October 2015. The new report finds that the outlook has deteriorated in advanced economies because of heightened uncertainty and setbacks to growth and confidence, while declines in oil and commodity prices and slower growth have kept risks elevated in emerging markets. These developments have tightened financial conditions, reduced risk appetite, raised credit risks, and stymied balance sheet repair. A broad-based policy response is needed to secure financial stability. Advanced economies must deal with crisis legacy issues, emerging markets need to bolster their resilience to global headwinds, and the resilience of market liquidity should be enhanced. The report also examines financial spillovers from emerging market economies and finds that they have risen substantially. This implies that when assessing macro-financial conditions, policymakers may need to increasingly take into account economic developments in emerging market economies. Finally, the report assesses changes in the systemic importance of insurers, finding that across advanced economies the contribution of life insurers to systemic risk has increased in recent years. The results suggest that supervisors and regulators should take a more macroprudential approach to the sector.
Book Synopsis License to Spill: How Do We Discuss Spillovers in Article IV Staff Reports by : Jelle Barkema
Download or read book License to Spill: How Do We Discuss Spillovers in Article IV Staff Reports written by Jelle Barkema and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-07 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper dives into the Fund’s historical coverage of cross-border spillovers in its surveillance. We use a state-of-the-art deep learning model to analyze the discussion of spillovers in all IMF Article IV staff reports between 2010 and 2019. We find that overall, while the discussion of spillovers decreased over time, it was pronounced in the staff reports of some systemically important economies and during periods of global spillover events. Spillover discussions were more prominent in staff reports covering advanced and emerging market economies, possibly reflecting their role as sources of global spillovers. The coverage of spillovers was higher in the context of the real, financial, and external sectors. Also, countries with larger economies, higher trade and capital account openess and lower inflation are more likely to discuss spillovers in their Article IV staff reports.
