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Expected Inflation In The Euro Area
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Book Synopsis Expected Inflation in the Euro Area by : Ricardo Reis
Download or read book Expected Inflation in the Euro Area written by Ricardo Reis and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Measures of expected inflation from both surveys and market prices provided valuable signals during the 2021-22 rise in euro area inflation. Combining these measures, as opposed to picking just one, and looking at distributions, as opposed to only measures of central tendency, showed a sustained drift upwards in inflation expectations since the middle of 2021. In June of 2022, these measures point to an expected gradual decline in inflation over the next two years, and a small risk to the credibility of the ECB’s inflation target. A baseline model suggests that a central bank should respond to these measures by raising interest rates. How much and how fast depends on how it assesses the source of the shock and how expectations are linked to actions.
Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Book Synopsis Inflation News and Euro Area Inflation Expectations by : Juan Angel Garcia
Download or read book Inflation News and Euro Area Inflation Expectations written by Juan Angel Garcia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-19 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do euro area inflation expectations remain well-anchored? This paper finds that the protracted period of low (and below-target) inflation in the euro area since 2013 has weakened their anchoring. Testing their sensitivity to inflation and macroeconomic news, this paper expands existing results in two key dimensions. First, by analyzing all available (advanced) inflation releases. Second, the reactions of expectations are investigated at daily, time-varying and intraday frequency regressions to add robustness to our conclusions. Results point to a significant impact of inflation news over recent years that had not been observed before in the euro area.
Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area by :
Download or read book Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area written by and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses theory and evidence on inflation expectations. While near-term measures of expected inflation in the euro area have increased, forecasters and financial markets expect inflation to decline back to the ECB's target by later this year. The paper provides some sceptical arguments in relation to the prominence given to measure of inflation expectations in monetary policy circles.
Book Synopsis Measuring Expected Inflation and the Ex-ante Real Interest Rate in the Euro Area Using Structural Vector Autoregressions by : Jan Gottschalk
Download or read book Measuring Expected Inflation and the Ex-ante Real Interest Rate in the Euro Area Using Structural Vector Autoregressions written by Jan Gottschalk and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Are Long-run Inflation Expectations Anchored More Firmly in the Euro Area Than in the United States? by : Meredith J. Beechey
Download or read book Are Long-run Inflation Expectations Anchored More Firmly in the Euro Area Than in the United States? written by Meredith J. Beechey and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Euro Area Inflation Expectations by : Ricardo Gimeno
Download or read book Euro Area Inflation Expectations written by Ricardo Gimeno and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study explores the recent dynamics of inflation expectations for the main euro area countries. It uses daily financial data for the main euro area countries over the past 15 years with a wide range of time horizons. The estimation of a model of the term structure of inflation expectations using these data allows the common part to be separated from the country specific part. It is found that, for the various time horizons and countries, the bulk of expected inflation is common to the whole euro area. The weight of country-specific factors is low, being most significant for the shorter term. For time horizons between five and ten years, the estimated inflation expectations showed a downward trend from 2012, which has reversed in the last two years owing to the application of a broad set of unconventional monetary policy measures in the euro area since mid-2014. Still, in the past year, medium-term inflation expectations have held below 2%, around 1.7% on average, clearly lower than in the period before the economic crisis.
Book Synopsis The Eurozone (expected) Inflation by : Ricardo Gimeno
Download or read book The Eurozone (expected) Inflation written by Ricardo Gimeno and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Long-term Distribution of Expected Inflation in the Euro Area by :
Download or read book The Long-term Distribution of Expected Inflation in the Euro Area written by and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density forecasts from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. We exploit the panel dimension in this dataset to examine whether this distribution became less stable following the Great Recession, subsequent sovereign debt crisis and period when the lower bound on nominal interest rates became binding. Our results suggest that the distribution did change along several dimensions. We document a small downward shift in mean long-run expectations toward the end of our sample although they remain aligned with the ECB definition of price stability. More notably, however, we identify a trend toward a more uncertain and negatively skewed distribution with higher tail risk. Another main finding is that key features of the distribution are influenced by macroeconomic news, including the ex post historical track record of the central bank.
Book Synopsis Inflation Risk Premia in the US and the Euro Area by : Peter Hördahl
Download or read book Inflation Risk Premia in the US and the Euro Area written by Peter Hördahl and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Evolution of Inflation Expectations in Euro Area Markets by : Ricardo Gimeno
Download or read book The Evolution of Inflation Expectations in Euro Area Markets written by Ricardo Gimeno and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Determinants of Inflation in the Euro Area by : Ms.Florence Jaumotte
Download or read book Determinants of Inflation in the Euro Area written by Ms.Florence Jaumotte and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-01-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While inflation differentials in a monetary union can be benign, reflecting a catch-up process, or an adjustment mechanism to asymmetric shocks or different business cycles, they may also indicate distortions related to inefficiencies in domestic product and labor markets that amplify or make more persistent the impact of shocks on inflation. The paper examines the determinants of inflation differentials in the euro area, with emphasis on the role of country specific labor and product market institutions. The analysis uses a traditional backward-looking Phillips curve equation and augments it to explore the role of collective bargaining systems, union density, employment protection, and product market regulation. The model is estimated over a panel dataset of 10 euro area countries over the period 1983-2007. Results show that high employment protection, intermediate coordination of collective bargaining, and high union density increase the persistence of inflation. Oil and raw materials price shocks are also more likely to be accommodated by wage increases when the degree of coordination in collective bargaining is intermediate. These results are robust to different estimation methods, model specifications, and outliers. The paper suggests that reforming labor market institutions may improve the functioning of the euro area by reducing the risk of persistent inflation differentials.
Book Synopsis Expected Inflation and Inflation Risk Premium in the Euro Area and in the United States by : Marcello Pericoli
Download or read book Expected Inflation and Inflation Risk Premium in the Euro Area and in the United States written by Marcello Pericoli and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis A Bottom-Up Reduced Form Phillips Curve for the Euro Area by : Thomas McGregor
Download or read book A Bottom-Up Reduced Form Phillips Curve for the Euro Area written by Thomas McGregor and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-12-16 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop a bottom-up model of inflation in the euro area based on a set of augmented Phillips curves for seven subcomponents of core inflation and auxiliary regressions for non-core items. We use the model’s disaggregated structure to explore which factors drove the deterioration in forecasting performance during the pandemic period and use these insights to improve on the ability to forecast inflation. In the baseline, the projection for core inflation is centered above 3 percent at end-2023, while headline inflation is expected to drop quite sharply over 2023, with energy base effects pulling inflation down from the currently very elevated levels to below 3 percent by 2023q4. The confidence intervals around these projections are wide given elevated uncertainty. We argue that the bottom-up approach offers a useful complement to the forecasters toolbox – even in the current uncertain environment - by improving forecast accuracy, shedding additional light on the drivers of inflation and providing a framework in which to apply ex post judgement in a structured way.
Book Synopsis Understanding Euro Area Inflation Dynamics: Why So Low for So Long? by : Mr.Yasser Abdih
Download or read book Understanding Euro Area Inflation Dynamics: Why So Low for So Long? written by Mr.Yasser Abdih and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-08-22 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite closing output gaps and tightening labor markets, inflation has remained low in the euro area. Based on an augmented Phillips Curve framework, we find that this phenomenon—sometimes attributed to low global inflation—has been primarily caused by a remarkable persistence of inflation, keeping it low despite the reduction in slack. This feature is shown to be specific to the euro area (in comparison with the United States). Monetary policy needs to stay accommodative to help guide inflation back to target.
Book Synopsis An Assessment of Recent Trend in Market-based Expected Inflation in the Euro Area by : Marcello Pericoli
Download or read book An Assessment of Recent Trend in Market-based Expected Inflation in the Euro Area written by Marcello Pericoli and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :International Monetary Fund Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1451812981 Total Pages :120 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (518 download)
Book Synopsis Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies of the Euro Area by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies of the Euro Area written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-10-29 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines monetary and exchange rate policies of the euro area. The paper reviews the European Central Bank’s definition of price stability, and examines the factors determining “the optimal rate of inflation” in the euro area. It reviews the benefits of price stability, including the reduction in the distortions of savings and investment behavior that stem from the interaction between nominal tax systems and inflation. It then goes on to evaluate arguments for maintaining a small positive inflation rate in the context of the euro area.
