Expectations In Economic Theory

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Big Players and the Economic Theory of Expectations

Author : R. Koppl
Publisher : Palgrave Macmillan
ISBN 13 : 9781349399680
Total Pages : 248 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (996 download)

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Book Synopsis Big Players and the Economic Theory of Expectations by : R. Koppl

Download or read book Big Players and the Economic Theory of Expectations written by R. Koppl and published by Palgrave Macmillan. This book was released on 2002-01-01 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investment and all other economic actions depend on 'subjective' expectations. The problem is how to construct a theory of expectations that assumes people interpret their situations in unpredictable ways. Building on the evolutionary economics of F.A.Hayek, Koppl gives us such a theory. This includes a theory of 'Big Players', demonstrating that discretionary policy interventions create ignorance and uncertainty. The volume uses innovative methods to address many vital problems in economic theory, and connects with many other schools of economics including New Institutional Economics, Constitutional Economics and Post Walsarian Economics.

Big Players and the Economic Theory of Expectations

Author : R. Koppl
Publisher : Palgrave Macmillan
ISBN 13 : 9780333678268
Total Pages : 266 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (782 download)

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Book Synopsis Big Players and the Economic Theory of Expectations by : R. Koppl

Download or read book Big Players and the Economic Theory of Expectations written by R. Koppl and published by Palgrave Macmillan. This book was released on 2002-06-19 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investment and all other economic actions depend on 'subjective' expectations. The problem is how to construct a theory of expectations that assumes people interpret their situations in unpredictable ways. Building on the evolutionary economics of F.A.Hayek, Koppl gives us such a theory. This includes a theory of 'Big Players', demonstrating that discretionary policy interventions create ignorance and uncertainty. The volume uses innovative methods to address many vital problems in economic theory, and connects with many other schools of economics including New Institutional Economics, Constitutional Economics and Post Walsarian Economics.

Rational Expectations

Author : Steven M. Sheffrin
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521479394
Total Pages : 204 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (793 download)

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Book Synopsis Rational Expectations by : Steven M. Sheffrin

Download or read book Rational Expectations written by Steven M. Sheffrin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1996-06-13 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book develops the idea of rational expectations and surveys its use in economics today.

Equilibrium, Expectations, And Information

Author : Christopher Torr
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 0429718527
Total Pages : 186 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (297 download)

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Book Synopsis Equilibrium, Expectations, And Information by : Christopher Torr

Download or read book Equilibrium, Expectations, And Information written by Christopher Torr and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-03-06 with total page 186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book attempts to elucidate the views of Keynes's General Theory as far as equilibrium, expectations and information are concerned, and compares them with those of modern classical economists of the Chicago and Ricardian persuasion.

Rational Expectations and Inflation

Author : Thomas J. Sargent
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691158703
Total Pages : 389 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)

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Book Synopsis Rational Expectations and Inflation by : Thomas J. Sargent

Download or read book Rational Expectations and Inflation written by Thomas J. Sargent and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013-05-05 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A fully expanded edition of the Nobel Prize–winning economist's classic book This collection of essays uses the lens of rational expectations theory to examine how governments anticipate and plan for inflation, and provides insight into the pioneering research for which Thomas Sargent was awarded the 2011 Nobel Prize in economics. Rational expectations theory is based on the simple premise that people will use all the information available to them in making economic decisions, yet applying the theory to macroeconomics and econometrics is technically demanding. Here, Sargent engages with practical problems in economics in a less formal, noneconometric way, demonstrating how rational expectations can satisfactorily interpret a range of historical and contemporary events. He focuses on periods of actual or threatened depreciation in the value of a nation's currency. Drawing on historical attempts to counter inflation, from the French Revolution and the aftermath of World War I to the economic policies of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, Sargent finds that there is no purely monetary cure for inflation; rather, monetary and fiscal policies must be coordinated. This fully expanded edition of Rational Expectations and Inflation includes Sargent's 2011 Nobel lecture, "United States Then, Europe Now." It also features new articles on the macroeconomics of the French Revolution and government budget deficits.

Expectations in Economic Theory

Author : S. A. Ozga
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 135152108X
Total Pages : 303 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (515 download)

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Book Synopsis Expectations in Economic Theory by : S. A. Ozga

Download or read book Expectations in Economic Theory written by S. A. Ozga and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-07-05 with total page 303 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals with economic theory, not methodology. It does employ certain methodological resolutions. These resolutions and the limitations they impose on the nature and the scope of the analysis are reviewed. The first resolution concerns what kind of a theory is to be discussed. The word theory may mean many things; it may mean a hypothesis put forward as an explanation of something, an idea, or a notion. In a normative sense it may mean a recommendation, a rule, or principle to be followed. In science it usually means a system of hypotheses to be accepted as an explanation of certain facts, a set of general laws, and principles. It is also used to distinguish the general principles and methods of a subject from the practice of it.The theory with which this volume is concerned is that of science. In very general terms it may be defined as a system of hypotheses, one following from another, which permits the reader to derive from known facts and predictions of other facts. If the knowledge of the fact which we predict is important for us, in the sense that it permits us to achieve better the objectives we pursue, the theory may have a practical value. This book is therefore not only a contribution to the analysis of expectations but also an introduction to a number of selected topics in economic theory.

Expectations

Author : Arie Arnon
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030413578
Total Pages : 244 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (34 download)

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Book Synopsis Expectations by : Arie Arnon

Download or read book Expectations written by Arie Arnon and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-03-20 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a unique historical perspective on expectations in economic theory, and applications of expectations models in economic history. Based on papers presented at the 2017 Thomas Guggenheim Conference, it brings together the work of economists, historians of economics, and economic historians on issues and events concerning expectations in economics and economic history. The contributions address: (i) the history of expectations models; (ii) growth, expectations and political economy; (iii) controversies regarding expectations methods and models; (iv) expectations in theory and reality; and (v) expectations in economic history. The book opens with a lecture by Thomas Guggenheim Prize winner Duncan Foley on the evolution of expectations in modern economic thought. The remaining content is divided into two parts, the first of which focuses on the utilization of expectations in the “ancient” and “meso” periods of high theory, i.e., from Smithian to Keynesian approaches. The papers cover topics such as “modern” applications of expectations in both “Tobinesque-Phillips” and “Harrodian-Solowian” contexts, and the debate between Friedmanite and Keynesian approaches to expectation formation. In turn, the last part presents essays on the role of economic expectations in connection with historical events and contexts, ranging from the early 20th century to World War II, and on the application of expectations theory to hyperinflation and stabilization, taking Israel as a case study.

Consumer Expectations

Author : Richard Thomas Curtin
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107004691
Total Pages : 365 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Consumer Expectations by : Richard Thomas Curtin

Download or read book Consumer Expectations written by Richard Thomas Curtin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-02-07 with total page 365 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Proposes a new comprehensive theory about how expectations are formed and how they shape the macro economy.

Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics

Author : George W. Evans
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400824265
Total Pages : 424 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics by : George W. Evans

Download or read book Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics written by George W. Evans and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-01-06 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach. Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a "rational bubble" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.

Economics, Economists and Expectations

Author : William Darity
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1134886241
Total Pages : 177 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (348 download)

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Book Synopsis Economics, Economists and Expectations by : William Darity

Download or read book Economics, Economists and Expectations written by William Darity and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2004-03-04 with total page 177 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The concept of rational expectations has played a hugely important role in economics over the years. Dealing with the origins and development of modern approaches to expectations in micro and macroeconomics, this book makes use of primary sources and previously unpublished material from such figures as Hicks, Hawtrey and Hart. The accounts of the 'founding fathers' of the models themselves are also presented here for the first time. The authors trace the development of different approaches to expectations from the likes of Hayek, Morgenstern, and Coase right up to more modern theorists such as Friedman, Patinkin, Phelps and Lucas. The startling conclusion that there was no 'Rational Expectations Revolution' is articulated, supported and defended with impressive clarity and authority. A necessity for economists across the world, this book will deserve its place upon many an academic bookshelf.

Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice

Author : Robert E. Lucas
Publisher : U of Minnesota Press
ISBN 13 : 1452908281
Total Pages : 335 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (529 download)

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Book Synopsis Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice by : Robert E. Lucas

Download or read book Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice written by Robert E. Lucas and published by U of Minnesota Press. This book was released on 1988 with total page 335 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assumptions about how people form expectations for the future shape the properties of any dynamic economic model. To make economic decisions in an uncertain environment people must forecast such variables as future rates of inflation, tax rates, governme.

The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money

Author : John Maynard Keynes
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319703447
Total Pages : 404 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (197 download)

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Book Synopsis The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money by : John Maynard Keynes

Download or read book The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money written by John Maynard Keynes and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-07-20 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book was originally published by Macmillan in 1936. It was voted the top Academic Book that Shaped Modern Britain by Academic Book Week (UK) in 2017, and in 2011 was placed on Time Magazine's top 100 non-fiction books written in English since 1923. Reissued with a fresh Introduction by the Nobel-prize winner Paul Krugman and a new Afterword by Keynes’ biographer Robert Skidelsky, this important work is made available to a new generation. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money transformed economics and changed the face of modern macroeconomics. Keynes’ argument is based on the idea that the level of employment is not determined by the price of labour, but by the spending of money. It gave way to an entirely new approach where employment, inflation and the market economy are concerned. Highly provocative at its time of publication, this book and Keynes’ theories continue to remain the subject of much support and praise, criticism and debate. Economists at any stage in their career will enjoy revisiting this treatise and observing the relevance of Keynes’ work in today’s contemporary climate.

Big Players and the Economic Theory of Expectations

Author : R. Koppl
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 0230629245
Total Pages : 248 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (36 download)

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Book Synopsis Big Players and the Economic Theory of Expectations by : R. Koppl

Download or read book Big Players and the Economic Theory of Expectations written by R. Koppl and published by Springer. This book was released on 2002-06-19 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investment and all other economic actions depend on 'subjective' expectations. The problem is how to construct a theory of expectations that assumes people interpret their situations in unpredictable ways. Building on the evolutionary economics of F.A.Hayek, Koppl gives us such a theory. This includes a theory of 'Big Players', demonstrating that discretionary policy interventions create ignorance and uncertainty. The volume uses innovative methods to address many vital problems in economic theory, and connects with many other schools of economics including New Institutional Economics, Constitutional Economics and Post Walsarian Economics.

Rational Expectations and Economic Policy

Author : Stanley Fischer
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226251330
Total Pages : 306 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (262 download)

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Book Synopsis Rational Expectations and Economic Policy by : Stanley Fischer

Download or read book Rational Expectations and Economic Policy written by Stanley Fischer and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Several areas in economics today have unprecedented significance and vitality. Most people would agree that stabilization policy ranks with the highest of these. Continuing inflation and periodic serious acceleration of inflation combined with high and secularly rising unemployment combine to give the area high priority. This book brings us up to date on an extremely lively discussion involving the role of expectations, and more particularly rational expectations, in the conduct of stabilization policy. . . . Anyone interested in the role of government in economics should read this important book."—C. Glyn Williams, The Wall Street Review of Books "This is a most timely and valuable contribution. . . . The contributors and commentators are highly distinguished and the editor has usefully collated comments and the ensuing discussion. Unusually for a conference proceedings the book is well indexed and it is also replete with numerous and up-to-date references. . . . This is the first serious book to examine the rational expectations thesis in any depth, and it will prove invaluable to anyone involved with macroeconomic policy generally and with monetary economics in particular."—G. K. Shaw, The Economic Journal

A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics

Author : Frederic S. Mishkin
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226531929
Total Pages : 184 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (265 download)

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Book Synopsis A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics by : Frederic S. Mishkin

Download or read book A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics written by Frederic S. Mishkin and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics pursues a rational expectations approach to the estimation of a class of models widely discussed in the macroeconomics and finance literature: those which emphasize the effects from unanticipated, rather than anticipated, movements in variables. In this volume, Fredrick S. Mishkin first theoretically develops and discusses a unified econometric treatment of these models and then shows how to estimate them with an annotated computer program.

Rethinking Expectations

Author : Roman Frydman
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691155232
Total Pages : 440 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)

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Book Synopsis Rethinking Expectations by : Roman Frydman

Download or read book Rethinking Expectations written by Roman Frydman and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book originated from a 2010 conference marking the fortieth anniversary of the publication of the landmark "Phelps volume," Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, a book that is often credited with pioneering the currently dominant approach to macroeconomic analysis. However, in their provocative introductory essay, Roman Frydman and Edmund Phelps argue that the vast majority of macroeconomic and finance models developed over the last four decades derailed, rather than built on, the Phelps volume's "microfoundations" approach. Whereas the contributors to the 1970 volume recognized the fundamental importance of according market participants' expectations an autonomous role, contemporary models rely on the rational expectations hypothesis (REH), which rules out such a role by design. The financial crisis that began in 2007, preceded by a spectacular boom and bust in asset prices that REH models implied could never happen, has spurred a quest for fresh approaches to macroeconomic analysis. While the alternatives to REH presented in Rethinking Expectations differ from the approach taken in the original Phelps volume, they are notable for returning to its major theme: understanding aggregate outcomes requires according expectations an autonomous role. In the introductory essay, Frydman and Phelps interpret the various efforts to reconstruct the field--some of which promise to chart its direction for decades to come. The contributors include Philippe Aghion, Sheila Dow, George W. Evans, Roger E. A. Farmer, Roman Frydman, Michael D. Goldberg, Roger Guesnerie, Seppo Honkapohja, Katarina Juselius, Enisse Kharroubi, Blake LeBaron, Edmund S. Phelps, John B. Taylor, Michael Woodford, and Gylfi Zoega.

Uncertainty, Expectations, and Financial Instability

Author : Eric Barthalon
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 0231538308
Total Pages : 445 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty, Expectations, and Financial Instability by : Eric Barthalon

Download or read book Uncertainty, Expectations, and Financial Instability written by Eric Barthalon and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2014-11-18 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Eric Barthalon applies the neglected theory of psychological time and memory decay of Nobel Prize–winning economist Maurice Allais (1911–2010) to model investors' psychology in the present context of recurrent financial crises. Shaped by the behavior of the demand for money during episodes of hyperinflation, Allais's theory suggests economic agents perceive the flow of clocks' time and forget the past at a context-dependent pace: rapidly in the presence of persistent and accelerating inflation and slowly in the event of the opposite situation. Barthalon recasts Allais's work as a general theory of "expectations" under uncertainty, narrowing the gap between economic theory and investors' behavior. Barthalon extends Allais's theory to the field of financial instability, demonstrating its relevance to nominal interest rates in a variety of empirical scenarios and the positive nonlinear feedback that exists between asset price inflation and the demand for risky assets. Reviewing the works of the leading protagonists in the expectations controversy, Barthalon exposes the limitations of adaptive and rational expectations models and, by means of the perceived risk of loss, calls attention to the speculative bubbles that lacked the positive displacement discussed in Kindleberger's model of financial crises. He ultimately extrapolates Allaisian theory into a pragmatic approach to investor behavior and the natural instability of financial markets. He concludes with the policy implications for governments and regulators. Balanced and coherent, this book will be invaluable to researchers working in macreconomics, financial economics, behavioral finance, decision theory, and the history of economic thought.