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Exchange Rate Management And Crisis Susceptibility
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Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Management and Crisis Susceptibility by : Mr.Atish R. Ghosh
Download or read book Exchange Rate Management and Crisis Susceptibility written by Mr.Atish R. Ghosh and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-01-24 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper revisits the bipolar prescription for exchange rate regime choice and asks two questions: are the poles of hard pegs and pure floats still safer than the middle? And where to draw the line between safe floats and risky intermediate regimes? Our findings, based on a sample of 50 EMEs over 1980-2011, show that macroeconomic and financial vulnerabilities are significantly greater under less flexible intermediate regimes—including hard pegs—as compared to floats. While not especially susceptible to banking or currency crises, hard pegs are significantly more prone to growth collapses, suggesting that the security of the hard end of the prescription is largely illusory. Intermediate regimes as a class are the most susceptible to crises, but “managed floats”—a subclass within such regimes—behave much more like pure floats, with significantly lower risks and fewer crises. “Managed floating,” however, is a nebulous concept; a characterization of more crisis prone regimes suggests no simple dividing line between safe floats and risky intermediate regimes.
Book Synopsis Perspectiveson the Recent Currency Crisis Literature by : Mr.Robert P. Flood
Download or read book Perspectiveson the Recent Currency Crisis Literature written by Mr.Robert P. Flood and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-09-01 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the 1990s, currency crises in Europe, Mexico, and Asia have drawn worldwide attention to speculative attacks on government-controlled exchange rates and have prompted researchers to undertake new theoretical and empirical analysis of these events. This paper provides some perspective on this work and relates it to earlier research. It derives the optimal commitment to a fixed exchange rate and proposes a common framework for analyzing currency crises. This framework stresses the important role of speculators and recognizes that the government’s commitment to a fixed exchange rate is constrained by other policy goals. The final section finds that some crises may be particularly difficult to predict using currently popular methods.
Book Synopsis Interpreting Currency Movements During the Crisis by : Mr.Thomas Dowling
Download or read book Interpreting Currency Movements During the Crisis written by Mr.Thomas Dowling and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-01-01 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using an adaptation of the Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) condition, this paper analyzes the drivers behind the large, symmetric exchange rate swings observed during the financial crisis of 2008-2010. Employing a Nelson-Siegel model, we estimate yield curves and decompose the exchange rate movements into changes we attribute to monetary policy and a residual. We find that the depreciation phase of the currencies in our sample was largely dominated by safe-haven effects rather than carry trade activity or other return considerations. For some countries, however, the appreciation that began at the end of 2008 seems largely to reflect downward movement in the cumulative revisions to nominal forward differentials, suggesting carry trade.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Management and Crisis Susceptibility by : Mr.Atish R. Ghosh
Download or read book Exchange Rate Management and Crisis Susceptibility written by Mr.Atish R. Ghosh and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-01-24 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper revisits the bipolar prescription for exchange rate regime choice and asks two questions: are the poles of hard pegs and pure floats still safer than the middle? And where to draw the line between safe floats and risky intermediate regimes? Our findings, based on a sample of 50 EMEs over 1980-2011, show that macroeconomic and financial vulnerabilities are significantly greater under less flexible intermediate regimes—including hard pegs—as compared to floats. While not especially susceptible to banking or currency crises, hard pegs are significantly more prone to growth collapses, suggesting that the security of the hard end of the prescription is largely illusory. Intermediate regimes as a class are the most susceptible to crises, but “managed floats”—a subclass within such regimes—behave much more like pure floats, with significantly lower risks and fewer crises. “Managed floating,” however, is a nebulous concept; a characterization of more crisis prone regimes suggests no simple dividing line between safe floats and risky intermediate regimes.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Risk Measurement and Management by : Mr.Michael G. Papaioannou
Download or read book Exchange Rate Risk Measurement and Management written by Mr.Michael G. Papaioannou and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Measuring and managing exchange rate risk exposure is important for reducing a firm's vulnerabilities from major exchange rate movements, which could adversely affect profit margins and the value of assets. This paper reviews the traditional types of exchange rate risk faced by firms, namely transaction, translation and economic risks, presents the VaR approach as the currently predominant method of measuring a firm's exchange rate risk exposure, and examines the main advantages and disadvantages of various exchange rate risk management strategies, including tactical versus strategical and passive versus active hedging. In addition, it outlines a set of widely accepted best practices in managing currency risk and presents some of the main hedging instruments in the OTC and exchange-traded markets. The paper also provides some data on the use of financial derivatives instruments, and hedging practices by U.S. firms.
Book Synopsis Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets by : Sebastian Edwards
Download or read book Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets written by Sebastian Edwards and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2009-02-15 with total page 783 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists and policymakers are still trying to understand the lessons recent financial crises in Asia and other emerging market countries hold for the future of the global financial system. In this timely and important volume, distinguished academics, officials in multilateral organizations, and public and private sector economists explore the causes of and effective policy responses to international currency crises. Topics covered include exchange rate regimes, contagion (transmission of currency crises across countries), the current account of the balance of payments, the role of private sector investors and of speculators, the reaction of the official sector (including the multilaterals), capital controls, bank supervision and weaknesses, and the roles of cronyism, corruption, and large players (including hedge funds). Ably balancing detailed case studies, cross-country comparisons, and theoretical concerns, this book will make a major contribution to ongoing efforts to understand and prevent international currency crises.
Book Synopsis Are Pegged and Intermediate Regimes More Crisis Prone? by : Mr.Andrea Bubula
Download or read book Are Pegged and Intermediate Regimes More Crisis Prone? written by Mr.Andrea Bubula and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-11-01 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides evidence on the susceptibility of different types of exchange rate regimes to currency crises during 1990-2001. It explores the incidence of crises, identified as episodes of severe exchange market pressure, to seek evidence on whether pegged regimes are more crisis prone than floating regimes and on whether certain types of pegged regimes are more crisis prone than others. The paper finds that pegged regimes, as a whole, have been characterized by a higher incidence of crises than floating regimes, for countries that are more integrated with international capital markets; and that intermediate regimes (mainly soft pegs and tightly-managed floating regimes) have been more crisis prone than both hard pegs and other floating regimes-a view consistent with the bipolar view of exchange rate regimes. The degree of crisis proneness seems to be broadly similar across different types of intermediate regimes.
Book Synopsis A Model of Contagious Currency Crises with Application to Argentina by : Ms.Nada Choueiri
Download or read book A Model of Contagious Currency Crises with Application to Argentina written by Ms.Nada Choueiri and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-03-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a model of contagious currency crises: crises transmit across countries by raising the risk premium on government bonds. Three types of equilibria can occur: a “no-collapse” equilibrium (crises never transmit from abroad); a “collapse” equilibrium (crises are inevitably contagious); or a “fundamentals” equilibrium (crises are contagious if domestic fundamentals are weak). A calibration exercise finds that the 1995 turmoil in Argentina coexisted with a combination of risk-averse investors and weak credibility in the currency board arrangement. This turmoil could only be attributed to a Tequila effect from the Mexican crisis alone if investors were excessively risk-averse.
Book Synopsis Monetary and Exchange Rate Systems by : Louis-Philippe Rochon
Download or read book Monetary and Exchange Rate Systems written by Louis-Philippe Rochon and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2006-01-01 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Combining critical perspectives with a positive contribution to economic policy, both national and international, this book considers the causes and consequences of recent financial crises presenting cutting-edge material.
Book Synopsis Managing Global Financial and Foreign Exchange Rate Risk by : Ghassem A. Homaifar
Download or read book Managing Global Financial and Foreign Exchange Rate Risk written by Ghassem A. Homaifar and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-03-23 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive guide to managing global financial risk From the balance of payment exposure to foreign exchange and interest rate risk, to credit derivatives and other exotic options, futures, and swaps for mitigating and transferring risk, this book provides a simple yet comprehensive analysis of complex derivatives pricing and their application in risk management. The risk posed by foreign exchange transactions stems from the volatility of the exchange rate, the volatility of the interest rates, and factors unique to individual companies which are interrelated. To protect and hedge against adverse currency and interest rate changes, multinational corporations need to take concrete steps for mitigating these risks. Managing Global Financial and Foreign Exchange Rate Risk offers a thorough treatment of price, foreign currency, and interest rate risk management practices of multinational corporations in a dynamic global economy. It lays out the pros and cons of various hedging instruments, as well as the economic cost benefit analysis of alternative hedging vehicles. Written in a detailed yet user–friendly manner, this resource provides treasurers and other financial managers with the tools they need to manage their various exposures to credit, price, and foreign exchange risk. Managing Global Financial and Foreign Exchange Rate Risk covers various swaps in this geometrically growing field with notional principal in excess of $120 trillion. From caplet and corridors to call and put swaptions this book covers the micro structure of the swaps, options, futures, and foreign exchange markets. From credit default swap and transfer and convertibility options to asset swap switch and weather derivatives this book illustrates their simple pricing and application. To show real-world examples, each chapter includes a case study highlighting a specific problem, as well as a set of steps to solve it. Numerous charts accompanied with actual Wall Street figures provide the reader with the opportunity to comprehend and appreciate the role and function of derivatives, which are often misunderstood in the financial market. This detailed resource will guide the individual, government and multinational corporations safely through the maze of various exposures. A must-read for treasures, controllers, money mangers, portfolio managers, security analyst and academics, Managing Global Financial and Foreign Exchange Rate Risk represents an important collection of up-to-date risk management solutions. Ghassem A. Homaifar is a professor of financial economics at Middle Tennessee State University. He has Master of Science in Industrial Management from State University of New York at Stony Brook and PhD in Finance from University of Alabama in 1982. He is the author of numerous articles that have appeared in the Journal of Risk and Insurance, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, Weltwirtschsftliches Archiv Review of World Economics, Advances in Futures and Options Research,Applied Financial Economics, Applied Economics, International Economics, and Global Finance Journal.
Book Synopsis Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Markets by : Morris Goldstein
Download or read book Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Markets written by Morris Goldstein and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2004-04-25 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In most of the currency crises of the 1990s, the largest output falls have occurred in those emerging economies with large currency mismatches, a phenomenon that occurs when assets and liabilities are denominated in different currencies such that net worth is sensitive to changes in the exchange rate. Currency mismatching makes crisis management much more difficult since it constrains the willingness of the monetary authority to reduce interest rates in a recession (for fear of initiating a large fall in the currency that would bring with it large-scale insolvencies). The mismatching also produces a "fear of floating" on the part of emerging economies, sometimes inducing them to make currency-regime choices that are not in their own long-term interest. Authors Morris Goldstein and Philip Turner summarize what is known about the origins of currency mismatching in emerging economies, discuss how best to define and measure currency mismatching, and review policy options for reducing the size of the problem.
Book Synopsis Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets by : Michael P. Dooley
Download or read book Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets written by Michael P. Dooley and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The management of financial crises in emerging markets is a vital and high-stakes challenge in an increasingly global economy. For this reason, it's also a highly contentious issue in today's public policy circles. In this book, leading economists-many of whom have also participated in policy debates on these issues-consider how best to reduce the frequency and cost of such crises. The contributions here explore the management process from the beginning of a crisis to the long-term effects of the techniques used to minimize it. The first three chapters focus on the earliest responses and the immediate defense of a currency under attack, exploring whether unnecessary damage to economies can be avoided by adopting the right response within the first few days of a financial crisis. Next, contributors examine the adjustment programs that follow, considering how to design these programs so that they shorten the recovery phase, encourage economic growth, and minimize the probability of future difficulties. Finally, the last four papers analyze the actual effects of adjustment programs, asking whether they accomplish what they are designed to do-and whether, as many critics assert, they impose disproportionate costs on the poorest members of society. Recent high-profile currency crises have proven not only how harmful they can be to neighboring economies and trading partners, but also how important policy responses can be in determining their duration and severity. Economists and policymakers will welcome the insightful evaluations in this important volume, and those of its companion, Sebastian Edwards and Jeffrey A. Frankel's Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets.
Book Synopsis Moving to Greater Exchange Rate Flexibility by : Ms. Inci Ötker
Download or read book Moving to Greater Exchange Rate Flexibility written by Ms. Inci Ötker and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-04-30 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many countries have moved towards more flexible exchange rate regimes over the last decade to take advantage of greater monetary policy autonomy and flexibility in responding to external shocks. Some reluctance to let go of pegged exchange rates persists, however, despite the benefits of flexibility. The institutional and operational requirements needed to support a floating exchange rate, as well as difficulties in assessing the right time and manner to exit, tend to be additional factors in this reluctance. This volume presents the concrete steps taken by a number of countries in transition to greater exchange rate flexibility and elaborates on the operational ingredients that proved helpful in promoting successful and durable transitions. It attempts to provide a better understanding (and hence a "road map") of how these various operational ingredients were established and coordinated, how their implementation interacted with macro and other conditions, and how they contributed to the smoothness of each transition.
Book Synopsis Leading Indicators of Currency Crises by : Graciela Laura Kaminsky
Download or read book Leading Indicators of Currency Crises written by Graciela Laura Kaminsky and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-07-01 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning “signal” that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.
Book Synopsis The Collapse of Exchange Rate Regimes by : George S. Tavlas
Download or read book The Collapse of Exchange Rate Regimes written by George S. Tavlas and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ical) and to self-fulfilling currency crisis, respectively. Research stressing the former approach was pioneered by Krugman (1979) and Flood and Garber (1984). According to this line of research, the failure of governments to adopt domestic monetary and fiscal policies consistent with their stated exchange rate targets leads to a gradual diminution of reserves and eventually a stock adjustment that depletes reserves suddenly in one attack (Sachs, Tornell, and Velasco, 1996, page 47). The result is either a devaluation of the exchange rate or a switch to floating. Subsequent work of this genre has specified a number of other channels, in addition to that involving inconsistent and unsustainable monetary and fiscal policies, that can precipitate an attack: 1. Inconsistency between external and internal objectives. The stances of monetary and fiscal policies may be consistent with the authorities' exchange rate target, but domestic economic indicators (such as the unemployment rate) may be inconsistent with internal balance, resulting in pressures on the authorities to relax macroeconomic policies. Private agents, aware of this inconsistency, perceive an opportunity for profits from a currency devaluation and precipitate an attack. 2. Contagion effects. Prior to an attack on another currency (say that of country B), the market may view a country's (say, country A's) exchange rate as consistent with economic fundamentals and, thus, sustainable.
Book Synopsis Currency Crises in Emerging Markets by : Marek Dabrowski
Download or read book Currency Crises in Emerging Markets written by Marek Dabrowski and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 309 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, prepared by Warsaw-based Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE), discusses various aspects of currency crises in emerging-market economies: The definitions and theoretical models of currency crises, the causes, management and propagation (contagion effect) of crises, their economic, social and policy consequences, the role of international financial institutions, and crisis prevention. In addition, five case studies of currency crises in Central and Eastern Europe are presented.
Book Synopsis The 90s' Currency Crises by : Thomas Meyer
Download or read book The 90s' Currency Crises written by Thomas Meyer and published by diplom.de. This book was released on 2000-06-15 with total page 91 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inhaltsangabe:Abstract: When on June 2nd 1997 Thailand devalued its currency, the stage was set was the most severe and virulent currency crisis of that decade. The sudden reversal of capital flows depleted economic wealth and social cohesion in many East Asian countries, hitherto perveived to belong to the Asian Miracle. Shockwaves of the crisis were felt in most emerging markets, even those outside the region, and reached mature markets when, for instance, the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management nearly collapsed. In face of these enormous costs, this paper analyses the possibilities and boundaries of attempts to either reduce the likeliness of respective financial shocks or, when unavoidable, lower the costs of managing these crises. On the ground of the state-of-the-art models of currency crises it is examined which domestic or international factors contributed most to the observed outcome. The guiding question is if either moral hazard considerations, in the form of governmental guarantees and alike, or approaches of multiple equilibria are more suited to serve as an explanation. Moreover, this paper illuminates the significance of the original sin hypothesis which states that emerging markets are constrained when trying to borrow abroad in domestic currency or, even when trying at home, to borrow long-term. Although it is acknowledged that all these factors are valid simultaniously, superior importance in the following parts is given on the multiple equilibria approach. The main part of the paper discusses the most influencial reform proposals of academics and institutions such as the IMF or the Group of 22. Approaches for a new financial architecture are divided into issues of the exchange-rate regime, public and private liquidity, and the institutional framework. These recommandations include questions of dollarization; an international lender of last resort; insurance agencies and credit facilities; capital controls; improved regulation and transparency; as well as the addidition of collective action clauses and alike to international bond contracts. They are assessed according to the criteria developed before, especially with regard to the approaches of moral hazard, multiple equilibria, and original sin. Taking into account that any grand scheme is rather unlikely to be realized on short notice, the conclusions concentrate on moderest reform proposals which can be pursued by emerging countries indiviually or with the assistance [...]
