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Everything Is Predictable
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Book Synopsis Everything Is Predictable by : Tom Chivers
Download or read book Everything Is Predictable written by Tom Chivers and published by Hachette UK. This book was released on 2024-04-25 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: SHORTLISTED FOR THE ROYAL SOCIETY TRIVEDI SCIENCE BOOK PRIZE 2024 'Fascinating, witty and perspective-shifting' Oliver Burkeman 'A remarkable book about a remarkable theorem' Will Storr 'Witty, lively and best of all, extremely nerdy. I learned a lot and so will you' Tim Harford Thomas Bayes was an eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician whose obscure life belied the profound impact of his work. Like most research into probability at the time, his theorem was mainly seen as relevant to games of chance, like dice and cards. But its implications soon became clear. Bayes' theorem helps explain why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives, causing unnecessary anxiety for patients. A failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. But its influence goes far beyond practical applications. A cornerstone of rational thought, Bayesian principles are used in modelling and forecasting. 'Superforecasters', a group of expert predictors who outperform CIA analysts, use a Bayesian approach. And many argue that Bayes' theorem is not just a useful tool, but a description of almost everything - that it is the underlying architecture of rationality, and of the human brain. Fusing biography, razor-sharp science communication and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is a captivating tour of Bayes' theorem and its impact on modern life. From medical testing to artificial intelligence, Tom Chivers shows how a single compelling idea can have far-reaching consequences.
Book Synopsis The Future of Everything by : David Orell
Download or read book The Future of Everything written by David Orell and published by Basic Books. This book was released on 2008-02-26 with total page 460 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hurricane Katrina, the internet stock bubble, disease outbreaks -- are these predictable, preventable events, or are we merely the playthings of chaos? A compelling, irreverent, elegantly written history of our future that addresses the most important issues of our time, Apollo's Arrow examines such questions as: How well can we predict the future? Can past discoveries help us understand tomorrow's weather patterns, or tell us what our financial future will look like? Will scientists ever be able to forecast catastrophes, or will we always be at the mercy of Mother Nature, waiting for the next storm, epidemic, or economic crash to thunder through our lives? David Orrell looks back to show us how past scientists (and some charlatans) predicted the future, and where we are on the path to truly understanding what comes next. He asks how today's scientists can claim to predict future climate events when even three-day forecasts prove a serious challenge. Can we predict and control epidemics? Can we accurately foresee our financial future? Or will we only find out about tomorrow when tomorrow arrives?
Book Synopsis Everything Is Predictable by : Tom Chivers
Download or read book Everything Is Predictable written by Tom Chivers and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2024-05-07 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A captivating and user-friendly tour of Bayes’s theorem and its global impact on modern life from the acclaimed science writer and author of The Rationalist’s Guide to the Galaxy. At its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything. But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem? How did an 18th-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician uncover a theorem that would affect fields as diverse as medicine, law, and artificial intelligence? Fusing biography, razor-sharp science writing, and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is an entertaining tour of Bayes’s theorem and its impact on modern life, showing how a single compelling idea can have far reaching consequences.
Book Synopsis Predictable Success by : Les McKeown
Download or read book Predictable Success written by Les McKeown and published by Greenleaf Book Group. This book was released on 2010 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presents advice on ways to inspire confidence in management and achieve lasting success in an organization.
Book Synopsis Rock Breaks Scissors by : William Poundstone
Download or read book Rock Breaks Scissors written by William Poundstone and published by Little, Brown Spark. This book was released on 2014-06-03 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A practical guide to outguessing everything, from multiple-choice tests to the office football pool to the stock market. People are predictable even when they try not to be. William Poundstone demonstrates how to turn this fact to personal advantage in scores of everyday situations, from playing the lottery to buying a home. Rock Breaks Scissors is mind-reading for real life. Will the next tennis serve go right or left? Will the market go up or down? Most people are poor at that kind of predicting. We are hard-wired to make bum bets on "trends" and "winning streaks" that are illusions. Yet ultimately we're all in the business of anticipating the actions of others. Poundstone reveals how to overcome the errors and improve the accuracy of your own outguessing. Rock Breaks Scissors is a hands-on guide to turning life's odds in your favor.
Book Synopsis Life-anything but predictable by : Sri Poorvaja
Download or read book Life-anything but predictable written by Sri Poorvaja and published by Blueink. This book was released on 2020-09-29 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This anthology is a record of your past and a tool to guide the future. The co-authors have crafted and packed insightful yet accessible writing prompts to aid people at any stage of their lives in gaining perspective which can highlight unnoticed patterns and act as an encouragement to comprehend the gift of life.
Book Synopsis The Illusion of Will, Self, and Time by : Jonathan Bricklin
Download or read book The Illusion of Will, Self, and Time written by Jonathan Bricklin and published by State University of New York Press. This book was released on 2015-06-01 with total page 405 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Seminary Co-op Notable Book of 2016 William James is often considered a scientist compromised by his advocacy of mysticism and parapsychology. Jonathan Bricklin argues James can also be viewed as a mystic compromised by his commitment to common sense. James wanted to believe in will, self, and time, but his deepest insights suggested otherwise. "Is consciousness already there waiting to be uncovered and is it a veridical revelation of reality?" James asked shortly before his death in 1910. A century after his death, research from neuroscience, physics, psychology, and parapsychology is making the case, both theoretically and experimentally, that answers James's question in the affirmative. By separating what James passionately wanted to believe, based on common sense, from what his insights and researches led him to believe, Bricklin shows how James himself laid the groundwork for this more challenging view of existence. The non-reality of will, self, and time is consistent with James's psychology of volition, his epistemology of self, and his belief that Newtonian, objective, even-flowing time does not exist.
Download or read book Bursts written by Albert-Laszlo Barabasi and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2011-05-31 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The bestselling author of Linked returns with a ground breaking new theory that will enthrall fans of The Tipping Point Can we scientifically predict our future? It's a mystery that has nagged scientists for perhaps thousand of years. Now Albert-László Barabási-the award-winning author of the sleeper hit Linked- explains how the digital age has yielded a massive, previously unavailable data set that proves the daily pattern of human activity isn't random, it's "bursty." We work and fight and play in short flourishes of activity followed by next to nothing. Compellingly illustrated with the account of a bloody medieval crusade in sixteenth-century Transylvania and the modern tale of a contemporary artist hunted by the FBI, Bursts reveals that we are far more predictable than we like to think.
Download or read book Passages written by Gail Sheehy and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2013-10-08 with total page 623 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Learn how to better navigate the challenges of adult life with Gail Sheehy’s landmark bestseller—named one of the ten most influential books of our times by the Library of Congress. For decades, Gail Sheehy’s Passages has been inspiring readers to see the predictable crises of adult life as opportunities for growth. She charts the stages between 18 and 50 as unfolding in a pattern of adult development: once recognized, more easily managed. Passages is an insightful road map of adulthood that illustrates with vivid stories our continuing personality and sexual changes throughout the “Trying 20s,” “Catch 30s,” “Forlorn 40s,” and “Refreshed (or Resigned) 50s.” One comment is continuously repeated by men, women, singles, couples, and people who recover from a midlife crisis: “This book changed my life.”
Book Synopsis From Impossible to Inevitable by : Aaron Ross
Download or read book From Impossible to Inevitable written by Aaron Ross and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2019-05-15 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Break your revenue records with Silicon Valley’s “growth bible” “This book makes very clear how to get to hyper-growth and the work needed to actually get there” Why are you struggling to grow your business when everyone else seems to be crushing their goals? If you needed to triple revenue within the next three years, would you know exactly how to do it? Doubling the size of your business, tripling it, even growing ten times larger isn't about magic. It's not about privileges, luck, or working harder. There's a template that the world's fastest growing companies follow to achieve and sustain much, much faster growth. From Impossible to Inevitable details the hypergrowth playbook of companies like Hubspot, Salesforce.com (the fastest growing multibillion dollar software company), and EchoSign—aka Adobe Document Services (which catapulted from $0 to $144 million in seven years). Whether you have a $1 billion or a $100,000 business, you can use the same insights as these notable companies to learn what it really takes to break your own revenue records. Pinpoint why you aren’t growing faster Understand what it takes to get to hypergrowth Nail a niche (the #1 missing growth ingredient) What every revenue leader needs to know about building a scalable sales team There’s no time like the present to surpass plateaus and get off of the up-and-down revenue rollercoaster. Find out how now!
Book Synopsis Probable Impossibilities by : Alan Lightman
Download or read book Probable Impossibilities written by Alan Lightman and published by Vintage. This book was released on 2022-04-19 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The acclaimed author of Einstein’s Dreams tackles "big questions like the origin of the universe and the nature of consciousness ... in an entertaining and easily digestible way” (Wall Street Journal) with a collection of meditative essays on the possibilities—and impossibilities—of nothingness and infinity, and how our place in the cosmos falls somewhere in between. Can space be divided into smaller and smaller units, ad infinitum? Does space extend to larger and larger regions, on and on to infinity? Is consciousness reducible to the material brain and its neurons? What was the origin of life, and can biologists create life from scratch in the lab? Physicist and novelist Alan Lightman, whom The Washington Post has called “the poet laureate of science writers,” explores these questions and more—from the anatomy of a smile to the capriciousness of memory to the specialness of life in the universe to what came before the Big Bang. Probable Impossibilities is a deeply engaged consideration of what we know of the universe, of life and the mind, and of things vastly larger and smaller than ourselves.
Book Synopsis Decomposing the Will by : Andy Clark
Download or read book Decomposing the Will written by Andy Clark and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2013-02-25 with total page 367 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is growing evidence from the science of human behavior that our everyday, folk understanding of ourselves as conscious, rational, responsible agents may be radically mistaken. The science, some argue, recommends a view of conscious agency as merely epiphenomenal: an impotent accompaniment to the whirring unconscious machinery (the inner zombie) that prepares, decides and causes our behavior. The new essays in this volume display and explore this radical claim, revisiting the folk concept of the responsible agent after abandoning the image of a central executive, and "decomposing" the notion of the conscious will into multiple interlocking aspects and functions. Part 1 of this volume provides an overview of the scientific research that has been taken to support "the zombie challenge." In part 2, contributors explore the phenomenology of agency and what it is like to be the author of one's own actions. Part 3 then explores different strategies for using the science and phenomenology of human agency to respond to the zombie challenge. Questions explored include: what distinguishes automatic behavior and voluntary action? What, if anything, does consciousness contribute to the voluntary control of behavior? What does the science of human behavior really tell us about the nature of self-control?
Book Synopsis Predictable Magic by : Deepa Prahalad
Download or read book Predictable Magic written by Deepa Prahalad and published by Pearson Prentice Hall. This book was released on 2010-07-19 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Companies invest fortunes on innovation and product strategy. But, by some estimates, 80% of new products fail or dramatically underperform every year, though a few rare products succeed brilliantly. Why is this the case? Their creators have seamlessly integrated corporate strategy with design. They don’t deliver utilitarian objects: they craft rewarding, empowering experiences. To outsiders, this looks like magic: incomprehensible, and impossible to reproduce. But it isn’t. Predictable Magic presents a complete design process for making the “magic” happen -- over and over again. Veteran industrial designer Ravi Sawhney and business strategist Deepa Prahalad introduce Psycho-Aesthetics, a breakthrough approach for systematically creating deep emotional connections between consumers and brands. Step by step, the authors cover everything from research to strategy, implementation to consumer experience. They also demonstrate Psycho-Aesthetics at work – in case studies from some of the world’s top companies, including Sprint, Medtronic, Amana, and Hyundai. You’ll see how these great companies have used Psycho-Aesthetics to go beyond the utilitarian (or even the merely “beautiful”), to build products that powerfully connect with people... touch them... move them... time and again.
Download or read book The Open Universe written by Karl Popper and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-11-12 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Open Universe is one of the three volumes of Karl Popper’s Postscript to the Logic of scientific Discovery. The Postscript is the culmination of Popper’s work in the philosophy of physics and a new famous attack on subjectivist approaches to philosophy of science.
Book Synopsis Predictably Irrational by : Dan Ariely
Download or read book Predictably Irrational written by Dan Ariely and published by Harper Collins. This book was released on 2008-02 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Intelligent, lively, humorous, and thoroughly engaging, "The Predictably Irrational" explains why people often make bad decisions and what can be done about it.
Book Synopsis The Science of Fate Why Your Future Is More Predictable Than You Think by : Hannah Critchlow
Download or read book The Science of Fate Why Your Future Is More Predictable Than You Think written by Hannah Critchlow and published by . This book was released on 2019-05-02 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Premonition Code (Large Print 16 Pt Edition) by : Theresa Cheung
Download or read book The Premonition Code (Large Print 16 Pt Edition) written by Theresa Cheung and published by . This book was released on 2020-09-09 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Precognition is the scientific name for the knowledge or perception of the future, obtained through extrasensory means. Often called 'premonition', precognition is the most frequently reported of all extrasensory perception (ESP) experiences, occurring most often in dreams. It may also occur spontaneously in waking visions, auditory hallucinations, flashing thoughts entering the mind, the sense of ''''knowing'''' and physiological changes. Combining science and practice, Theresa and Dr Julia unravel the mystery of precognition. The book will cover: What precognition is and the different types, clearly explaining the cutting-edge science, including what is known and what is still a mystery The most common premonitions that people experience and why, including examples from around the world Experimental tools to help you cultivate precognition experiences to help get useful information for your lifeCase studies included throughout, with supporting scientific evidence offered alongside to provide validation and explanationPersonal experiences of the authors, detailing how premonition has shaped their lives and interviews with leading scientists and experts in the field Review: ''''Dr Julia Mossbridge and co-author Theresa Cheung show us that our everyday notions of time do not reflect the scientific reality of how time can work in our lives. They dare to examine the so-called anomaly of precognition in a clear-headed way, hopeful that as a society we can build teams of ''''Positive Precogs'''' who globally move us toward positive events and away from negative ones. This book is a major contribution in our understanding of reality and the dormant potential for the so-called supernormal that exists within all of us. Read it and discover the power of time within your mind.'''' -Deepak Chopra, M.D., author of The Healing Self ''''The Premonition Code addresses an unprecedented shift in scientific understanding, all over a refined assessment of the nature of consciousness. At its core lie peculiar and unexpected aspects of time itself, and of causal relationships and modes of knowing that defy conventional explanation. The book is not only a sophisticated and comprehensive presentation of the science behind this world-changing revolution: It also provides a fascinating and practical toolbox to aid conscious beings in personally exploring these mind-bending concepts and applying them positively in their own lives. Thanks to Theresa and Dr Mossbridge, a future based in our loftiest dreams has never been more accessible!'''' -Eben Alexander MD, neurosurgeon and author of Living in a Mindful Universe and Proof of Heaven ''''It seems that the 'other side' might be in 'another time.' In this book we have a mystic and a hard-core scientist using fascinating and accessible examples to demonstrate the remarkable possibilities of precognition and how to access it in your own life.'''' -New York Times bestselling author and spiritual medium, James van Praagh While reading the Premonition Code I felt how my mind set steadily transformed. This easily accessible book on the human capacity to foresee future events presents personal accounts as well as recent scientific insight. What is more, it is about a practical mind technique, probed and tested over the last decades, which might enable us to better sense the future. This book could become the I Ching of our times. -Marc Wittmann, Institute for Frontier Areas of Psychology and Mental Health, Germany ''''Dr. Julia Mossbridge and Theresa Cheung, in Premonition Code, have written an excellent and compelling book that will present the reader with the very latest research in nonlocal consciousness, as well as a way to use these findings to improve their own lives. I recommend it.'''' -Stephan A. Schwartz, Author, Scientist, and Futurist, The 8 Laws of Change, 2016 winner of the Nautilus book award for social change ''''I am excited about The Premonition Code because it exhibits a long overdue blen...
