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Estimating Trends In Male Earnings Volatility With The Panel Study Of Income Dynamics
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Book Synopsis Estimating Trends in Male Earnings Volatility with the Panel Study of Income Dynamics by : Robert A. Moffitt
Download or read book Estimating Trends in Male Earnings Volatility with the Panel Study of Income Dynamics written by Robert A. Moffitt and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The possible existence of trends in volatility in the U.S. labor market has been an important issue in both labor economics and macroeconomics. The Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) has been the workhorse data set used to estimate trends in earnings volatility at the individual level. Studies using the PSID have generally shown upward trends in volatility. However, trends estimated with the PSID conflict with those reported from some other survey and administrative data sets, many of which have shown flat or declining trends. This paper, which is part of a group project attempting to reconcile estimates across different data sets, presents new estimates of trends in male earnings volatility in the U.S. from 1970 to 2016 from the PSID, and addresses a number of concerns with the data that might lead its estimates to differ from those obtained in other data sets. The analysis shows that upward trends in male earnings volatility were concentrated in the 1970s and 1980s, and that trends after 1990 have been modest or even non-existent, depending on whether volatility is expected to return to its mid-2000s level after jumping up in the Great Recession. Thus, volatility trends in the PSID are roughly consistent with those studies using other data sets which find flat volatility trends in the last three decades. Examinations of potential biases from unit nonresponse (i.e., attrition), item nonresponse (i.e., don't knows and refusals) and resulting imputation, and from a number of other features of the PSID that might affect its population representativeness show no evidence of significant bias from any of these factors. However, suggestive evidence that declines in volatility estimated in studies using administrative data may be a result of a larger left tail of earnings and of problematic trimming procedures used in those studies.
Book Synopsis Trends in Men's Earnings Volatility by : Donggyun Shin
Download or read book Trends in Men's Earnings Volatility written by Donggyun Shin and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Using Panel Study of Income Dynamics data for 1969 through 2004, we examine movements in men's earnings volatility. Like many previous studies, we find that earnings volatility is substantially countercyclical. As for secular trends, we find that men's earnings volatility increased during the 1970s, but did not show a clear trend afterwards until a new upward trend appeared in the last few years. These patterns are broadly consistent with the findings of recent studies based on other data sets"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
Book Synopsis Income Volatility and the PSID by : Robert A. Moffitt
Download or read book Income Volatility and the PSID written by Robert A. Moffitt and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) has made more contributions to the study of income volatility than any other data set in the U.S. Its record of research is truly seminal. In this paper we first present the reasons that the PSID has made such major contributions to research on the topic. Then we review the major papers that have used the PSID to study income volatility and we compare their results to those using other data sets. Lastly, we present new results for male earnings volatility through 2014. We find that both gross volatility and the component consisting of only the variance of transitory shocks have experienced a large increase during the Great Recession after following similar trends to those previously established showing upward trends from the 1970s to the 1980s followed by a stable period until the Recession.
Book Synopsis Reconciling Trends in Volatility by : Michael D. Carr
Download or read book Reconciling Trends in Volatility written by Michael D. Carr and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As part of a set of papers using the same methods and sample selection criteria to estimate trends in male earnings volatility across a number of survey and administrative datasets, we conduct a new investigation of trends in male earnings volatility from the 1980s to 2014 using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) survey and the SIPP Gold Standard File (SIPP GSF), which links the SIPP survey to administrative data on earnings. We find that the level of volatility is higher in the SIPP GSF than in the SIPP survey but that the trends are similar. Specifically, over the period where the datasets overlap between 1984 and 2012, volatility in the SIPP survey declines slightly while volatility in the SIPP GSF increases slightly but the differences are small in magnitude. Because the density of low earnings differs considerably across datasets, and volatility may vary across the earnings distribution, we estimate trends in volatility in the SIPP survey and SIPP GSF where we hold the earnings distribution fixed to resemble that in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). We find that differences in the underlying earnings distribution explains almost all of the difference in the level of volatility between the SIPP survey and SIPP GSF and it somewhat reduces the small differences in trends.
Book Synopsis Reconciling Trends in U.S. Male Earnings Volatility by : Robert A. Moffitt
Download or read book Reconciling Trends in U.S. Male Earnings Volatility written by Robert A. Moffitt and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a large literature on earnings and income volatility in labor economics, household finance, and macroeconomics. One strand of that literature has studied whether individual earnings volatility has risen or fallen in the U.S. over the last several decades. There are strong disagreements in the empirical literature on this important question, with some studies showing upward trends, some downward trends, and some flat trends. Some studies have suggested that the differences are the result of using flawed survey data instead of more accurate administrative data. This paper provides an overview of a project attempting to reconcile these findings with four different data sets and six different data series--three survey and three administrative data series, including two which match survey respondent data to their administrative data. Using common specifications, measures of volatility, and other treatments of the data, the papers show almost uniformly a lack of any significant long-term trend in male earnings volatility over the last 30 years. Moreover, the survey and the administrative data almost entirely agree on that long-term stability when the comparison is done properly. Several possible explanations for the differing finds in past work are suggested by the papers. The stability of earnings volatility raises many questions for future research on trends in the U.S. labor market.
Book Synopsis Reconciling Trends in U.S. Male Earnings Volatility by : Robert A. Moffitt
Download or read book Reconciling Trends in U.S. Male Earnings Volatility written by Robert A. Moffitt and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One strand of the literature in labor economics, household finance, and macroeconomics has studied whether individual earnings volatility has risen or fallen in the U.S. over the last several decades. There are disagreements in the empirical literature on this question, with some suggestions that the differences are the result of using flawed survey data instead of more accurate administrative data. This paper summarizes the results of a project to reconcile these findings with four different data sets and six different data series--three survey and three administrative data series, including two which match survey respondent data to their administrative data. Four of the six series show no significant trend in male earnings volatility over the last 20-to-30+ years when differences across the data sets are properly accounted for. A fifth shows a positive net trend but small in magnitude. A sixth shows no net trend 1998-2011 and only a small decline thereafter. The remaining differences across data series can be largely explained by differences in the left tail of their cross-sectional earnings distributions. We conclude that the data sets we have analyzed show little evidence of any significant trend in male earnings volatility since the mid-1980s.
Book Synopsis Trends in the transitory variance of male earnings in the US, 1970 - 2004 by : Robert A. Moffitt
Download or read book Trends in the transitory variance of male earnings in the US, 1970 - 2004 written by Robert A. Moffitt and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: We estimate the trend in the transitory variance of male earnings in the U.S. using the Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics from 1970 to 2004. Using both an error components model as well as simpler but only approximate methods, we find that the transitory variance started to increase in the early 1970s, continued to increase through the mid-1980s, and then remained at this new higher level through the 1990s and beyond. Thus the increase mostly occurred about thirty years ago. Its increase accounts for between 31 and 49 percent of the total rise in cross-sectional variance, depending on the time period
Book Synopsis Unequal We Stand by : Jonathan Heathcote
Download or read book Unequal We Stand written by Jonathan Heathcote and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-10 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors conducted a systematic empirical study of cross-sectional inequality in the U.S., integrating data from various surveys. The authors follow the mapping suggested by the household budget constraint from individual wages to individual earnings, to household earnings, to disposable income, and, ultimately, to consumption and wealth. They document a continuous and sizable increase in wage inequality over the sample period. Changes in the distribution of hours worked sharpen the rise in earnings inequality before 1982, but mitigate its increase thereafter. Taxes and transfers compress the level of income inequality, especially at the bottom of the distribution, but have little effect on the overall trend. Charts and tables. This is a print-on-demand publication; it is not an original.
Book Synopsis Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S. by : Mr.Olivier Coibion
Download or read book Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S. written by Mr.Olivier Coibion and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the effects and historical contribution of monetary policy shocks to consumption and income inequality in the United States since 1980. Contractionary monetary policy actions systematically increase inequality in labor earnings, total income, consumption and total expenditures. Furthermore, monetary shocks can account for a significant component of the historical cyclical variation in income and consumption inequality. Using detailed micro-level data on income and consumption, we document the different channels via which monetary policy shocks affect inequality, as well as how these channels depend on the nature of the change in monetary policy.
Book Synopsis Earnings and Income Volatility in America by : James P. Ziliak
Download or read book Earnings and Income Volatility in America written by James P. Ziliak and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we offer new evidence on earnings and income volatility in the United States over the past four decades by using matched data from the March Current Population Survey. We find that between 1973 and 2008 family income volatility rose by 38 percent, primarily as a result of higher volatility of husbands earnings and non means-tested nonlabor income. Rising family income volatility is in evidence across race, education, and family structure, and after declining sharply while young, it is increasing in the latter part of the life cycle among the skilled. The Federal tax and transfer system dampens the magnitude of volatility in any given year, but not the trends. Nonparametric tests of structural change indicate that overall family income volatility peaked in 1999, with the 2000s characterized by greater short-term volatility rather than a continued secular increase. Most of the increase in family earnings volatility occurred prior to the 1990s, which coincides with the trend volatility of male earnings. The earnings volatility of women fell dramatically through the early 1980s, and the ongoing secular decline implies male and female earnings volatility is converging. A variance decomposition suggests that the trends in earning volatility are driven both by increases in the conditional variance of earnings of continuous workers as well as the variance of the conditional mean of those workers exiting the labor force. Data Appendix is included. (Contains 6 tables, 20 figures, and 5 footnotes.).
Book Synopsis Income Volatility and Food Assistance in the United States by : Dean Jolliffe
Download or read book Income Volatility and Food Assistance in the United States written by Dean Jolliffe and published by W.E. Upjohn Institute. This book was released on 2008 with total page 319 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The papers in this volume provide much needed focus and in depth coverage of the effect of income-volatility on the participation and design of food-assistance programs such as the Food Stamp Program and the National School Lunch Program.
Author :National Bureau of Economic Research Publisher :University of Chicago Press ISBN 13 :9780226533568 Total Pages :224 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (335 download)
Book Synopsis Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States by : National Bureau of Economic Research
Download or read book Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States written by National Bureau of Economic Research and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2003-10-15 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Few United States government programs are as controversial as those designed to aid the poor. From tax credits to medical assistance, aid to needy families is surrounded by debate—on what benefits should be offered, what forms they should take, and how they should be administered. The past few decades, in fact, have seen this debate lead to broad transformations of aid programs themselves, with Aid to Families with Dependent Children replaced by Temporary Assistance to Needy Families, the Earned Income Tax Credit growing from a minor program to one of the most important for low-income families, and Medicaid greatly expanding its eligibility. This volume provides a remarkable overview of how such programs actually work, offering an impressive wealth of information on the nation's nine largest "means-tested" programs—that is, those in which some test of income forms the basis for participation. For each program, contributors describe origins and goals, summarize policy histories and current rules, and discuss the recipient's characteristics as well as the different types of benefits they receive. Each chapter then provides an overview of scholarly research on each program, bringing together the results of the field's most rigorous statistical examinations. The result is a fascinating portrayal of the evolution and current state of means-tested programs, one that charts a number of shifts in emphasis—the decline of cash assistance, for instance, and the increasing emphasis on work. This exemplary portrait of the nation's safety net will be an invaluable reference for anyone interested in American social policy.
Book Synopsis Getting Ahead by : Daniel P. McMurrer
Download or read book Getting Ahead written by Daniel P. McMurrer and published by The Urban Insitute. This book was released on 1998 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Adapted in part from the "Opportunity in America" series of policy briefs, this volume focuses on social and economic mobility in the United States. Class or family background has a strong effect on individual success, the authors find. They examine the possible reasons for this relationship; how it has changed over the past century; and the role of the economy, the welfare system, and education in opening up opportunities for the less fortunate.
Book Synopsis Global Trends 2040 by : National Intelligence Council
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Book Synopsis Demand Composition and Income Distribution by : David Pothier
Download or read book Demand Composition and Income Distribution written by David Pothier and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-15 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper highlights how changes in the composition of demand affect income dispersion in the short run. We first document how the share of aggregate spending dedicated to labour-intensive goods and services shrinks (expands) during downturns (booms), and argue that this contributes to the observed pro-cyclicality of employment and output in labour-intensive industries. Using a two-sector general equilibrium model, we then assess how this demand composition channel influences the cyclical properties of the income distribution. Consistent with empirical evidence, we find income inequality to be countercyclical due to changes in the level of employment and (to a lesser extent) relative factor prices. The model also shows that wealth redistribution policies can potentially involve a trade-off between equality and output, depending on how they affect the composition of aggregate demand.
Book Synopsis Links Between Growth, Inequality, and Poverty: A Survey by : Ms. Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Links Between Growth, Inequality, and Poverty: A Survey written by Ms. Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-03-12 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is there a tradeoff between raising growth and reducing inequality and poverty? This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the complex links between growth, inequality, and poverty, with causation going in both directions. The evidence suggests that growth can be effective in reducing poverty, but its impact on inequality is ambiguous and depends on the underlying sources of growth. The impact of poverty and inequality on growth is likewise ambiguous, as several channels mediate the relationship. But most plausible mechanisms suggest that poverty and inequality reduce growth, at least in the long run. Policies play a role in shaping these relationships and those designed to improve equality of opportunity can simultaneously improve inclusiveness and growth.
Book Synopsis Inequality, Leverage and Crises by : Mr.Michael Kumhof
Download or read book Inequality, Leverage and Crises written by Mr.Michael Kumhof and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-11-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper studies how high leverage and crises can arise as a result of changes in the income distribution. Empirically, the periods 1920-1929 and 1983-2008 both exhibited a large increase in the income share of the rich, a large increase in leverage for the remainder, and an eventual financial and real crisis. The paper presents a theoretical model where these features arise endogenously as a result of a shift in bargaining powers over incomes. A financial crisis can reduce leverage if it is very large and not accompanied by a real contraction. But restoration of the lower income group's bargaining power is more effective.
