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Estimating The Output Gap For Chile
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Book Synopsis The Chilean Output Gap by : Leandro Medina
Download or read book The Chilean Output Gap written by Leandro Medina and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-01-01 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates the potential output (and the output gap) in Chile using several different methodologies. After a structural brake in 1998, the average growth rate of potential output in Chile declined from over 7 percent to 3-4 percent in the aggregate economy, but to less than 2 percent in the natural resource sector. The contributions to aggregate potential output growth of the natural resource sector and the non-natural resource sector are estimated, finding that the contribution to growth of the natural resource sector is non-linear-increasing during the 1990s, declining during the 2000s, and turning negative in the mid-2000s-despite the monotonic decrease in the share of natural resource output in aggregate output.
Book Synopsis Estimating the Output GAP for Chile by : J. Rodrigo Fuentes
Download or read book Estimating the Output GAP for Chile written by J. Rodrigo Fuentes and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Estimating Potential Output in Chile by : Patrick Blagrave
Download or read book Estimating Potential Output in Chile written by Patrick Blagrave and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-10-14 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a multivariate filter, we estimate potential growth rates in Chile’s mining and non-mining sectors. Estimates for the mining sector incorporate information on copper prices, whereas estimates for non-mining reflect information on inflation and unemployment rates. To better understand the drivers of potential growth, we decompose estimates into capital, labor (adjusted for human-capital and hours worked), and total-factor productivity using a production-function. Our estimates of potential output in Chile suggest that an important part of the recent growth slowdown has been structural, with potential-output growth slowing to 21⁄2 percent in recent years, although it plausibly could be higher in the medium-term.
Book Synopsis Potential Output Growth in Emerging Market Countries by : Mr.Jorge Roldos
Download or read book Potential Output Growth in Emerging Market Countries written by Mr.Jorge Roldos and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-09-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates potential output and the sources of growth in Chile during 1970-96. Actual output is cointegrated with the quality-adjusted measures of capital and labor, and constant returns to scale cannot be rejected. The estimates of potential output show a positive output gap in the years when the Chilean economy was deemed to be overheated. In 1986-90, the quality-adjusted labor variable explains close to 60 percent of the growth rate of GDP, while during 1991-95 capital formation plays a dominant role. The contribution of TFP growth in Chile is relatively small, but, based on a comparison with European and East Asian experiences, it is expected to increase in the medium term.
Book Synopsis Potential Output Growth in Emerging Market Countries by : Jorge E. Roldos
Download or read book Potential Output Growth in Emerging Market Countries written by Jorge E. Roldos and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates potential output and the sources of growth in Chile during 1970-96. Actual output is cointegrated with the quality-adjusted measures of capital and labor, and constant returns to scale cannot be rejected. The estimates of potential output show a positive output gap in the years when the Chilean economy was deemed to be overheated. In 1986-90, the quality-adjusted labor variable explains close to 60 percent of the growth rate of GDP, while during 1991-95 capital formation plays a dominant role. The contribution of TFP growth in Chile is relatively small, but, based on a comparison with European and East Asian experiences, it is expected to increase in the medium term.
Book Synopsis Estimating Gaps and Trends for the Chilean Economy by : Gabriela Contreras M.
Download or read book Estimating Gaps and Trends for the Chilean Economy written by Gabriela Contreras M. and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy by : Francesco Grigoli
Download or read book Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy written by Francesco Grigoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-23 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. This is important given the central role in monetary policy of assessments of economic activity relative to capacity. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap revisions is predictable ex ante based on characteristics like output dynamics, data quality, and policy frameworks. We also show that for a group of Latin American inflation targeters the prescriptions from typical monetary policy rules are subject to large changes due to output gap revisions. These revisions explain a sizable proportion of the deviation of inflation from target, suggesting this information is not accounted for in real-time policy decisions.
Book Synopsis A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States by : Ali Alichi
Download or read book A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States written by Ali Alichi and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The gap between potential and actual output---the output gap---is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S. economy. The results show that the output gap has considerably shrunk since the Great Recession, but still remains negative. While the results are more robust than other existing methodologies, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates. --Abstract.
Book Synopsis Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? by : Mr.Jiaqian Chen
Download or read book Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? written by Mr.Jiaqian Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-07 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.
Book Synopsis How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? by : Mr.Alvar Kangur
Download or read book How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? written by Mr.Alvar Kangur and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-20 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have large and negative averages that are largely revised away in later vintages. Most of the mis-measurement in real time can be explained by the difficulty in predicting recessions and by overestimation of the economy’s potential capacity. We also find, in line with earlier literature, that real-time output gaps are not useful for predicting inflation. In addition, countries where slack (and potential growth) is overestimated to a larger extent primary fiscal balances tend to be lower and public debt ratios are higher and increase faster than projected. Previous research suggests that national authorities’ real-time output gaps suffer from a similar bias. To the extent these estimates play a role in calibrating fiscal policy, over-optimism about long-term growth could contribute to excessive deficits and debt buildup.
Book Synopsis Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap by : Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap written by Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2000-03 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews a number of different methods that can be used to estimate potential output and the output gap. Measures of potential output and the output gap are useful to help identify the scope for sustainable noninflationary growth and to allow an assessment of the stance of macroeconomic policies. The paper then compares results from some of these methods to the case of Sweden, showing the range of estimates.
Book Synopsis Potential Output in Latin America by : André A. Hofman
Download or read book Potential Output in Latin America written by André A. Hofman and published by Santiago, Chile : CEPAL, Statistics and Economic Projections Division. This book was released on 2003 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Potential output estimates are becoming increasingly important in policy design in Latin America (ECLAC, 2002) and the objective of this paper is to make a methodological contribution to this field of work. For a proper evaluation of the macroeconomic situation in a certain point in time it is important to have an idea of the level of potential output. For monetary policy decisions it is important to know what the level of potential output is compared to the effective output. In an era in which inflation targeting has become widespread in Latin America it has become increasingly important to estimate potential output. In projections of economic growth the output gap can be a very important input.
Book Synopsis Estimating the Output Gap in Real Time by : Knut Are Aastveit
Download or read book Estimating the Output Gap in Real Time written by Knut Are Aastveit and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap [electronic Resource] by : Bank of Canada
Download or read book A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap [electronic Resource] written by Bank of Canada and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Estimating lost output from allocative inefficiency, with an application to Chile and firing costs by : Amil Petrin
Download or read book Estimating lost output from allocative inefficiency, with an application to Chile and firing costs written by Amil Petrin and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a new measure of allocative efficiency based on unrealized increases in aggregate productivity growth. We show that the difference in the value of the marginal product of an input and its marginal cost at any plant - the plant-input "gap" - is exactly equal to the change in aggregate output that would occur if that plant changed that input's use by one unit. The mean absolute gap across plants for any input can then be interpreted as an approximation to the gain to society that would occur if every plant had a one-unit change in that input in the efficient direction, holding everything else constant. We show how to estimate this average gap using plant-level data for 1982-1994 from Chilean manufacturing, a sector largely viewed as being one of South America's least distorted. We find the gaps for blue and white collar labor are quite large in absolute value and imply that a one-unit move in the correct direction for blue collar would increase aggregate value added by almost 0.5%. We also find that the gaps for blue and white collar workers are increasing over time while the gaps for materials and electricity are not. The timing of the two separate increases in firing costs and the sharpest increases in the labor gaps is suggestive that the increases in average within-firm labor gaps may be related to the increases in severance pay.
Book Synopsis Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap in Slovakia by : Tetsuya Konuki
Download or read book Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap in Slovakia written by Tetsuya Konuki and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis by : Ali Alichi
Download or read book Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis written by Ali Alichi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-02-19 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper extends the multivariate filter approach of estimating potential output developed by Alichi and others (2018) to incorporate labor market hysteresis. This extension captures the idea that long and deep recessions (expansions) cause persistent damage (improvement) to the labor market, thereby reducing (increasing) potential output. Applying the model to U.S. data results in significantly smaller estimates of output gaps, and higher estimates of the NAIRU, after the global financial crisis, compared to estimates without hysteresis. The smaller output gaps partly explain the absence of persistent deflation despite the slow recovery during 2010-2017. Going forward, if strong growth performance continues well beyond 2018, hysteresis is expected to result in a structural improvement in growth and employment.
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