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Estimating The Impact Of External Shocks On The Eccu Application To The Covid Shock
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Book Synopsis Estimating the Impact of External Shocks on the ECCU: Application to the COVID Shock by : Vivian Parlak
Download or read book Estimating the Impact of External Shocks on the ECCU: Application to the COVID Shock written by Vivian Parlak and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-08-20 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We measure the impact of frequent exogeneous shocks on small ECCU economies, including changes to global economic activity, tourism flows, oil prices, passport sales, FDI, and natural disasters. Using Canonical-Correlation Analysis (CCA) and dynamic panel regression analysis we find significant effects of most of these shocks on output, while only fluctuations in oil prices have significant effects on inflation. Results also suggest a significant impact of FDI and passport sales on the external balance, a link that CCA identifies as the strongest among all analyzed relations. The model also shows how Covid-19 related shocks lead to substantial contractions in output in all ECCU countries and deterioration of the current account balance in most of them, depending on countries’ tourism dependency.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Regional Cooperation and Integration by : Philippe De Lombaerde
Download or read book Handbook of Regional Cooperation and Integration written by Philippe De Lombaerde and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2024-02-12 with total page 531 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is an open access title available under the terms of a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 License. It is free to read, download and share on Elgaronline.com. This timely Handbook offers a detailed cross-policy assessment on the need, locale and impact of regional cooperation and integration, addressing how the principles of regional integration have affected multi-level governance and subsequent public policy. Individual chapters provide explanations of what regional cooperation means in a specific policy area, identify relevant theories, and present empirical evidence to support the arguments outlined.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 : Total Pages :42 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (2 download)
Book Synopsis Eastern Caribbean Currency Union by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Eastern Caribbean Currency Union written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-07-29 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Selected Issues
Book Synopsis Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: 2021 Discussion on Common Policies of Member Countries-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union by : International Monetary
Download or read book Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: 2021 Discussion on Common Policies of Member Countries-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-04 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The fallout from the COVID-19 crisis is hitting ECCU economies hard. Tourism receipts (accounting for nearly 40 percent of GDP) have dried up, as tourist arrivals have come to a grinding halt. The authorities successfully contained the spread of the virus at the onset of the pandemic by largely closing the borders, but a reopening of the economies since the summer has led to a surge in COVID cases. The ECCU economy is projected to contract by 16 percent in 2020 and by a further near 1⁄2 percent in 2021. Fiscal positions have deteriorated sharply, and public debt is projected to reach near 90 percent of GDP in 2021 and remain at an elevated level for years to come. Headline indicators suggest the financial system is relatively sound with ample liquidity buffers, but nonperforming loans are expected to rise significantly. The outlook is clouded by exceptionally high risks, including from the uncertainty concerning the evolution of the pandemic.
Book Synopsis Tourism in the Post-Pandemic World by : Ms.Manuela Goretti
Download or read book Tourism in the Post-Pandemic World written by Ms.Manuela Goretti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-02-19 with total page 115 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This departmental paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in the Asia Pacific region, Latin America, and Caribbean countries. Many tourism dependent economies in these regions, including small states in the Pacific and the Caribbean, entered the pandemic with limited fiscal space, inadequate external buffers, and foreign exchange revenues extremely concentrated in tourism. The empirical analysis leverages on an augmented gravity model to draw lessons from past epidemics and finds that the impact of infectious diseases on tourism flows is much greater in developing countries than in advanced economies.
Book Synopsis Caribbean Energy by : Arnold McIntyre
Download or read book Caribbean Energy written by Arnold McIntyre and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-08 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: High energy costs contribute to dampening Caribbean competitiveness and potential growth. This paper overviews power sector challenges and takes stock of national and regional strategies to address them. It presents recommendations to move the energy agenda forward based on analyses of macro-aspects of energy reform. These include: i) quantitative assessment of the impact of energy costs on growth and competitiveness; ii) evaluation of gains from implementing announced renewable energy and energy efficiency targets; and iii) analysis of the impact of energy investments on debt sustainability. The paper argues for a bigger role for the private sector in energy reform and discusses prerequisites for good public-private partnerships.
Book Synopsis Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines by : Mr.Si Guo
Download or read book Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines written by Mr.Si Guo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-12 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation rates rose sharply in the Philippines during 2018. Understanding the demand and supply sources of inflation pressures is key to monetary policy response. Qualitatively, indicators have pointed to evidence of inflation pressures from both sides in 2018, with the supply factors, by and large, associated with commodity-price shocks and demand factors deduced from gleaning at the wider non-oil trade deficits seen in the Philippines. Quantitatively, we deploy a semi-structural model to decompose the contributions of various shocks to inflation. Our main findings are (1) supply factors (mainly global commodity prices) played a prominent role in explaining the rise in inflation in 2018; (2) demand factors also contributed to inflation in a non-negligible way, justifying the need for tighter monetary policy in 2018; (3) the size of the estimated output gap (an important indicator of demand pressures) could be larger, when considering the widening trade deficits in 2018; and (4) a delayed monetary policy tightening can be costly in terms of higher inflation rates, requiring larger and more aggressive interest rate hikes to bring inflation under control, based on a counterfactual exercise.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498324029 Total Pages :109 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Global Financial Stability Report, October 2019 by : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report, October 2019 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-16 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The October 2019 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) identifies the current key vulnerabilities in the global financial system as the rise in corporate debt burdens, increasing holdings of riskier and more illiquid assets by institutional investors, and growing reliance on external borrowing by emerging and frontier market economies. The report proposes that policymakers mitigate these risks through stricter supervisory and macroprudential oversight of firms, strengthened oversight and disclosure for institutional investors, and the implementation of prudent sovereign debt management practices and frameworks for emerging and frontier market economies.
Book Synopsis Global Financial Stability Report, April 2021 by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report, April 2021 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-04-06 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extraordinary policy measures have eased financial conditions and supported the economy, helping to contain financial stability risks. Chapter 1 warns that there is a pressing need to act to avoid a legacy of vulnerabilities while avoiding a broad tightening of financial conditions. Actions taken during the pandemic may have unintended consequences such as stretched valuations and rising financial vulnerabilities. The recovery is also expected to be asynchronous and divergent between advanced and emerging market economies. Given large external financing needs, several emerging markets face challenges, especially if a persistent rise in US rates brings about a repricing of risk and tighter financial conditions. The corporate sector in many countries is emerging from the pandemic overindebted, with notable differences depending on firm size and sector. Concerns about the credit quality of hard-hit borrowers and profitability are likely to weigh on the risk appetite of banks. Chapter 2 studies leverage in the nonfinancial private sector before and during the COVID-19 crisis, pointing out that policymakers face a trade-off between boosting growth in the short term by facilitating an easing of financial conditions and containing future downside risks. This trade-off may be amplified by the existing high and rapidly building leverage, increasing downside risks to future growth. The appropriate timing for deployment of macroprudential tools should be country-specific, depending on the pace of recovery, vulnerabilities, and policy tools available. Chapter 3 turns to the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the commercial real estate sector. While there is little evidence of large price misalignments at the onset of the pandemic, signs of overvaluation have now emerged in some economies. Misalignments in commercial real estate prices, especially if they interact with other vulnerabilities, increase downside risks to future growth due to the possibility of sharp price corrections.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1513530968 Total Pages :82 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (135 download)
Book Synopsis St. Lucia by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book St. Lucia written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-24 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2019 Article IV Consultation explains that St. Lucia’s near-term growth prospects are favorable, supported by large infrastructure investment and robust tourist inflows. However, longer-term growth continues to be impeded by high public debt, lingering vulnerabilities in the financial system, and structural impediments to private investment. Diminishing policy buffers further weaken the country’s resilience to external shocks against the backdrop of aprecarious global outlook. Completion of long pending legislative initiatives, alongside stronger regional and domestic financial oversight, should provide banks with incentives to strengthen their balance sheets and increase the efficiency of financial intermediation. There is also a need to draw on supervisory and regulatory tools to respond to emerging risks from rising overseas investments of the banks and the rapid expansion of lending by credit unions. The authorities are recommended to should step up efforts to address the institutional, financing and capacity gaps in its climate and disaster response strategy. Supply-side reforms are needed to unlock potential growth by improving the business environment, reducing energy costs, enhancing labor productivity, and further diversifying the economy.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Buffers for Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries by : Hidetaka Nishizawa
Download or read book Fiscal Buffers for Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries written by Hidetaka Nishizawa and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-12 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Pacific island countries (PICs) are vulnerable severe natural disasters, especially cyclones, inflicting large losses on their economies. In the aftermath of disasters, PIC governments face revenue losses and spending pressures to address post-disaster relief and recovery efforts. This paper estimates the effects of severe natural disasters on fiscal revenues and expenditure in PICs. These are combined with information on the frequency of large disasters to calculate the rate of budgetary savings needed to build appropriate fiscal buffers. Fiscal buffers provide self-insurance against natural disaster shocks and facilitate quick disbursement for recovery and relief efforts, and protection of spending on essential services and infrastructure. The estimates can provide a benchmark for policymakers, and should be adjusted to take into account other sources of financing, as well as budget risks from less severe as well as more frequent disasters.
Book Synopsis Economic and fiscal outlook by : Office for Budget Responsibility
Download or read book Economic and fiscal outlook written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2010-11-29 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2015-16. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives and presents preliminary observations on the long-run sustainability of the public finances. Since the June forecast, the UK economy has recovered more strongly than initially expected. The GDP growth was greater than expected in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters, but that unemployment levels have risen to levels that the June forecast did not anticipate until the middle of 2012. In general the world economy has also grown more strongly. CPI inflation has remained slightly higher than expected in June, whilst public finances have performed as forecast. The interest rates on UK debt are lower than in June. The OBR forecasts that the economy will continue to recover from the recession, but at a slower pace than the recoveries of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. The publication is divided into 5 chapters with two annexes.
Book Synopsis A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks by : Thordur Jonasson
Download or read book A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks written by Thordur Jonasson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-06 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an overview of sovereign debt portfolio risks and discusses various liability management operations (LMOs) and instruments used by public debt managers to mitigate these risks. Debt management strategies analyzed in the context of helping reach debt portfolio targets and attain desired portfolio structures. Also, the paper outlines how LMOs could be integrated into a debt management strategy and serve as policy tools to reduce potential debt portfolio vulnerabilities. Further, the paper presents operational issues faced by debt managers, including the need to develop a risk management framework, interactions of debt management with fiscal policy, monetary policy, and financial stability, as well as efficient government bond markets.
Book Synopsis Is the Public Investment Multiplier Higher in Developing Countries? An Empirical Exploration by : Mr.Alejandro Izquierdo
Download or read book Is the Public Investment Multiplier Higher in Developing Countries? An Empirical Exploration written by Mr.Alejandro Izquierdo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-12-20 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the last decade, empirical studies analyzing macroeconomic conditions that may affect the size of government spending multipliers have flourished. Yet, in spite of their obvious public policy importance, little is known about public investment multipliers. In particular, the clear theoretical implication that public investment multipliers should be higher (lower) the lower (higher) is the initial stock of public capital has not, to the best of our knowledge, been tested. This paper tackles this empirical challenge and finds robust evidence in favor of the above hypothesis: countries with a low initial stock of public capital (as a proportion of GDP) have significantly higher public investment multipliers than countries with a high initial stock of public capital. This key finding seems robust to the sample (European countries, U.S. states, and Argentine provinces) and to the identification method (Blanchard-Perotti, forecast errors, and instrumental variables). Our results thus suggest that public investment in developing countries would carry high returns.
Download or read book China 2049 written by David Dollar and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2020-06-09 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How will China reform its economy as it aspires to become the next economic superpower? It's clear that China is the world's next economic superpower. But what isn't so clear is how China will get there by the middle of this century. It now faces tremendous challenges such as fostering innovation, dealing with ageing problem and coping with a less accommodative global environment. In this book, economists from China's leading university and America's best-known think tank offer in depth analyses of these challenges. Does China have enough talent and right policy and institutional mix to transit from input-driven to innovation-driven economy? What does ageing mean, in terms of labor supply, consumption demand and social welfare expenditure? Can China contain the environmental and climate change risks? How should the financial system be transformed in order to continuously support economic growth and keep financial risks under control? What fiscal reforms are required in order to balance between economic efficiency and social harmony? What roles should the state-owned enterprises play in the future Chinese economy? In addition, how will technological competition between the United States and China affect each country's development? Will the Chinese yuan emerge as a major reserve currency, and would this destabilize the international financial system? What will be China's role in the international economic institutions? And will the United States and other established powers accept a growing role for China and the rest of the developing world in the governance of global institutions such as the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund, or will the world devolve into competing blocs? This book provides unique insights into independent analyses and policy recommendations by a group of top Chinese and American scholars. Whether China succeeds or fails in economic reform will have a large impact, not just on China's development, but also on stability and prosperity for the whole world.
Book Synopsis The Risks of Financial Institutions by : Mark Carey
Download or read book The Risks of Financial Institutions written by Mark Carey and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 670 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Until about twenty years ago, the consensus view on the cause of financial-system distress was fairly simple: a run on one bank could easily turn to a panic involving runs on all banks, destroying some and disrupting the financial system. Since then, however, a series of events—such as emerging-market debt crises, bond-market meltdowns, and the Long-Term Capital Management episode—has forced a rethinking of the risks facing financial institutions and the tools available to measure and manage these risks. The Risks of Financial Institutions examines the various risks affecting financial institutions and explores a variety of methods to help institutions and regulators more accurately measure and forecast risk. The contributors--from academic institutions, regulatory organizations, and banking--bring a wide range of perspectives and experience to the issue. The result is a volume that points a way forward to greater financial stability and better risk management of financial institutions.
Book Synopsis Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2020 by : United Nations Publications
Download or read book Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2020 written by United Nations Publications and published by UN. This book was released on 2021-09-22 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This publication, one of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean's most important annual reports, analyzes in its latest edition the economic performance of the region throughout the year, including the international context and macroeconomic policies implemented by the Commission's Member States, while also providing an outlook for 2021.
