Read Books Online and Download eBooks, EPub, PDF, Mobi, Kindle, Text Full Free.
Download Essays On Model Uncertainty In Monetary Policy full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online Essays On Model Uncertainty In Monetary Policy ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!
Author : Francesca Rondina
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 123 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (65 download)
Download or read book Essays on Model Uncertainty in Monetary Policy written by Francesca Rondina and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mingjun Zhao
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 76 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (852 download)
Download or read book Essays on Model Uncertainty in Macroeconomics written by Mingjun Zhao and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: My dissertation grapples with the issues of model uncertainty in macroeconomics, and analyzes its consequences for monetary policy. It consists of three essays. In the first essay (Chapter 1), "Monetary Policy under Misspecified Expectations", I examine policy choices for the central bank that faces uncertainty about the process of expectation formation by economic agents. The economy contains both "rule-of-thumb" agents who base their expectations on recent observations and agents who have rational expectations. The central bank is uncertain about the fraction of the rule-of-thumb agents. This uncertainty concern enables me to partially rationalize the over cautious policy stance of the Fed: empirically observed policy in the past two decades involves much weaker responses than optimal policies derived from various micro-founded models. It is well understood that when the economy is more forward-looking, the central bank displays more aggressive responses to inflation and output. But the uncertainty-averse central bank evaluates policies by the performance in the worst case. In my economy this has a high fraction of agents that are backward-looking. The best policy the central bank chooses thus involves moderate responses. That is to say, this minimax policy moves closer toward actual less responsive policy. In the second essay (Chapter 2), "Phillips Curve Uncertainty and Monetary Policy", I investigate the effect of model uncertainty on policy choices employing a more general approach, which nests the minimax and Bayesian approaches as limiting cases. The central bank is uncertain about whether the economy has a sticky price Phillips curve or a sticky information Phillips curve. I argue that how the central bank chooses a policy depends both on its perception of uncertainty environment and on its attitude towards uncertainty. I find that as the central bank either becomes more uncertainty-averse or considers sticky information more plausible, the response to inflation decreases and to output increases. The third essay (Chapter 3) is entitled "Optimal Simple Rules in RE Models with Risk Sensitive Preferences". This paper provides a useful method to solve optimal simple rules under risk sensitive preference in macro models with forward looking behavior. An application to a new Keynesian model with lagged dynamics is offered and risk sensitive preference is found to amplify policy responses.
Author : Takeshi Yagihashi
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 248 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (83 download)
Download or read book Essays on Estimation of Monetary Models Under Model Uncertainty written by Takeshi Yagihashi and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (88 download)
Download or read book Three Essays on Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty written by and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the first chapter, I propose a new design of Early Warning Systems to detect early warning signals of an impending financial crisis. The problem of EWS is formulated from a policy maker's perspective. Hence the probability threshold is obtained by minimizing the policy maker's welfare loss. This paper employs the Bayesian Quickest Change Detection as the methodology to detect the early warning signals. We show that the BQCD method outperforms the Logit model used in traditional EWS models based on results of simulation exercise and the out-of-sample prediction of the 1997 Asian financial crises. In the second chapter, I investigated the timing of U.S. monetary policy response to the 2007 financial crisis. The LIBOR-OIS spread jumped significantly on Aug 9, 2007, indicating an unusual increase in distress of the financial sector, but it was not until Aug 17, 2007, that the Federal Reserve responded with a 50 basis points of reduction of the primary credit rate after an unscheduled meeting. I further assumed that the policy maker was uncertain about the intensity of the financial crisis, and that monetary policy responded to more severe financial crisis more intensively. In order to increase the accuracy of choosing the right policy regime, waiting for more information may be desirable. I found that for certain specifications of the intensity of the financial crisis, the optimal timing of the Federal Reserve's policy response should be Aug 15, 2007. I concluded that uncertainty about the intensity of the financial crisis played an important role in the timing decision of the policy maker. In the third chapter, I investigated the issue of international monetary policy coordination under uncertainty. The consensus is that international monetary policy coordination is welfare improving, but some argue that the improvement is not significant quantitatively. This paper studied the role of model uncertainty in international monetary policy coordination, and found that considering model uncertainty can enhance welfare gain of coordination.
Author : Giacomo Rondina
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 204 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (89 download)
Download or read book Essays on Incomplete Information, Model Uncertainty, and Macroeconomic Policy written by Giacomo Rondina and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : J.M. Berk
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1475734050
Total Pages : 157 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)
Download or read book The Preparation of Monetary Policy written by J.M. Berk and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 157 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Standard macroeconomic monographs often discuss the mechanism of monetary transmission, usually ending by highlighting the complexities and uncertainties involved in this mechanism. Conversely, The Preparation of Monetary Policy takes these uncertainties as a starting point, analytically investigating their nature and spelling out their consequences for the monetary policy maker. The second innovative aspect of this book is its focus on policy preparation instead of well-covered topics such as monetary policy strategy, tactics, and implementation. Thirdly, a general, multi-model framework for preparing monetary policy is proposed, which is illustrated by case studies stressing the role of international economic linkages and of expectations. Written in a self-contained fashion, these case studies are of interest by themselves. The book is written for an audience that is interested in the art and science of monetary policy making, which includes central bankers, academics, and (graduate) students in the field of monetary economics, macroeconomics, international economics and finance.
Author : Zhun Liu
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (14 download)
Download or read book Essays on model uncertainty and corporate financial policies written by Zhun Liu and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Alex Ilek
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 57 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (757 download)
Download or read book Essays on Uncertainty and Monetary Policy written by Alex Ilek and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Zhun Liu (Researcher in finance)
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (12 download)
Download or read book Essays on Model Uncertainty and Corporate Financial Policies written by Zhun Liu (Researcher in finance) and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Jean-Jacques Laffont
Publisher : Harvard University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780674265554
Total Pages : 160 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (655 download)
Download or read book Essays in the Economics of Uncertainty written by Jean-Jacques Laffont and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 1980 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These three elegant essays develop principles central to the understanding of the diverse ways in which imperfect information affects the distribution of resources, incentives, and the evaluation of economic policy. The first concerns the special role that information plays in the allocation process when it is possible to improve accuracy through private investment. The common practice of hiring "experts" whose information is presumably much better than their clients' is analyzed. Issues of cooperative behavior when potential group members possess diverse pieces of information are addressed. Emphasis is placed on the adaptation of the "core" concept from game theory to the resource allocation model with differential information. The second essay deals with the extent to which agents can influence the random events they face. This is known as moral hazard, and in its presence there is a potential inefficiency in the economic system. Two special models are studied: the role of moral hazard in a monetary economy, and the role of an outside adjudicatory agency that has the power to enforce fines and compensation. The final essay discusses the problem of certainty equivalence in economic policy. Conditions under which a full stochastic optimization can be calculated by solving a related, much simpler "certainty equivalence" problem are developed. The reduction in the complexity of calculation involved is very great compared with the potential loss of efficiency.
Author : Nonarit Bisonyabut
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 167 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (73 download)
Download or read book Essays on Uncertainties in Monetary Policy written by Nonarit Bisonyabut and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 167 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Nam Xuan Nguyen
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (852 download)
Download or read book Two Essays on Monetary Policy Under Parameter Uncertainty written by Nam Xuan Nguyen and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Neil Ware White (IV)
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 276 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (14 download)
Download or read book Essays on Labor Markets, Monetary Policy, and Uncertainty written by Neil Ware White (IV) and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation examines the impacts on the labor market of monetary policy and macroeconomic uncertainty. The first chapter examines how monetary policy shocks in the U.S. affect the flows of workers among three labor market categories--employment, unemployment, and non-participation--and assesses each flow's relative importance to changes in labor market "stock'' variables like the unemployment rate. I find that job loss accounts for the largest portion of monetary policy's effect on labor markets. I develop a New Keynesian model that incorporates these channels and show how a central bank can achieve welfare gains from targeting job loss, rather than output, in an otherwise standard Taylor rule. The second chapter examines the role of monetary policy in "job polarization.'' I argue that contractionary monetary policy has accelerated the decline of employment in routine occupations, which largely affected workers with a high-school degree but no college. In part by disproportionately affecting industries with high shares of routine occupations, contractionary monetary policy shocks lead to large and persistent shifts away from routine employment. Expansionary shocks, on the other hand, have little effect on these industries. Indeed, monetary policy's effect on overall employment is concentrated in routine jobs. These results highlight monetary policy's role in generating fluctuations not only in the level of employment, but also the composition of employment across occupations and industries. The third chapter introduces new direct measures of uncertainty derived from the Michigan Survey of Consumers. The series underlying these new measures are more strongly correlated with economic activity than many other series that are the basis for uncertainty proxies. The survey also facilitates comparison with response dispersion or disagreement, a commonly used proxy for uncertainty in the literature. Dispersion measures have low or negative correlation with direct measures of uncertainty and often have causal effects of opposite sign, suggesting that they are poor proxies for uncertainty. For the measures based on series most closely correlated with economic activity, positive uncertainty shocks are mildly expansionary. This result is robust across identification and estimation strategies and is consistent with "growth options'' theories of the effects of uncertainty.
Author : Anastasios G Malliaris
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9814480045
Total Pages : 373 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (144 download)
Download or read book Economic Uncertainty, Instabilities And Asset Bubbles: Selected Essays written by Anastasios G Malliaris and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2005-10-03 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The compendium of papers in this volume focuses on aspects of economic uncertainty, financial instabilities and asset bubbles.Economic uncertainty is modeled in continuous time using the mathematical techniques of stochastic calculus. A detailed treatment of important topics is provided, including the existence and uniqueness of asymptotic economic growth, the modeling of inflation and interest rates, the decomposition of inflation and its volatility, and the extension of the quantity theory of money to allow for randomness.The reader is also introduced to the methods of chaotic dynamics, and this methodology is applied to asset pricing, the European equity markets, and the multi-fractality in foreign currency markets.Since the techniques of stochastic calculus and chaotic dynamics do not readily accommodate the presence of stochastic bubbles, several papers discuss in depth the presence of financial bubbles in asset prices, and econometric work is performed to link such bubbles to monetary policy.Finally, since bubbles often burst rather than deflate slowly, the last section of the book studies the crash of October 1987 as well as other crashes of national equity markets due to the Persian gulf crisis.
Author : Alain Schlaepfer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 102 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (112 download)
Download or read book Essays on Uncertainty, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability written by Alain Schlaepfer and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the first chapter, I examine both theoretically and empirically how income uncertainty affects the effectiveness of monetary policy. I consider income risk from potential unemployment, and find that monetary policy has a smaller influence on aggregate demand when unemployment risk is high. I build on the fact that saving arising from a precautionary motive has a smaller interest elasticity. As a consequence, aggregate demand reacts less to the interest rate when uncertainty is high. The second chapter links the build-up of financial risk that led to the recent financial crisis to the preceding period of exceptionally low macroeconomic volatility. The degree of stability that a country has enjoyed before 2007 predicts robustly how much it suffered from the crisis, a result that also holds for individual firms. In the final chapter, I connect this period of low volatility to the conduct of monetary policy. Building on a stylized model, I show empirically that monetary policy may have been ̀too successful' in stabilizing inflation, as this has contributed to excessive financial risk taking.
Author : Klodiana Istrefi
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (962 download)
Download or read book Essays on Monetary Policy and Uncertainty written by Klodiana Istrefi and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Hilde Patron
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 404 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Three Essays on Uncertainty and Learning by Economic Agents written by Hilde Patron and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
