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Author : Yanyan Yang
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (14 download)
Download or read book Essays on Investor Sentiment and International Finance written by Yanyan Yang and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Anna Mathieu
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3658116374
Total Pages : 133 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (581 download)
Download or read book Essays on the Impact of Sentiment on Real Estate Investments written by Anna Mathieu and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-11-05 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Anna Mathieu clarifies if real estate decisions are affected by investor and consumer sentiment and how severely the sentiment should be considered. With regard to international capital markets Mathieu conducts an analysis of the impact of investor sentiment on the return of the real estate-specific investment vehicle “Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT)” by applying a GARCH-Model. She investigates the effects of investor sentiment on the return and the underlying volatilities of REITs and Non-REITs during the financial crisis. The hypotheses are tested for validity in a GARCH-Model. Parallel to capital markets and thereby in changing from an indirect Real Estate investment perspective to a direct perspective the author conducts an analysis if consumer sentiment impacts the household decision to buy a new home in the US. Therefore a dataset with 385 monthly observations from 1978 to 2010 is tested by a component model.
Author : James Gerard Bulsiewicz
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 307 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (12 download)
Download or read book Essays on Investor Sentiment and Institutional Trading Momentum written by James Gerard Bulsiewicz and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Francisco Jose Guedes dos Santos
Publisher : Stanford University
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 153 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Essays in Financial Economics written by Francisco Jose Guedes dos Santos and published by Stanford University. This book was released on 2011 with total page 153 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three essays that examine various problems in financial economics. Chapter 1 fills in a gap in the IPO literature by documenting a close connection between IPO underpricing and the long-term underperformance of IPOs. Firms going public in periods of low underpricing do not underperform in the long run, while firms going public in high underpricing periods do. Furthermore, IPOs in later stages of high underpricing periods underperform even relative to their offer prices, which suggests that many of the most "underpriced" IPOs are in fact priced above fundamental value. This result is unlikely to be explained by differences in risk, or to be driven by a peso problem. I also find that firms going public in later stages of high underpricing periods display worse operating performance and profitability, lower asset growth, lower investment rates and higher cash holdings. Finally, I provide evidence that investor sentiment is stronger in high-underpricing periods. These results are consistent with a setting in which low quality firms, in periods in which the average underpricing in the market is high, try to exploit investors' sentiment by going public. Chapter 2 looks at the return predictability information in Single Country Closed-End Fund (SCCEF) discounts. It is long argued that discounts in closed-end funds are caused by differences in sentiment between investors that trade the fund and investors that trade the underlying assets. SCCEFs provide an interesting setting given the clear market segmentation. American SCCEFs are priced by American investors, while underlying assets are mainly traded by investors in the respective country. I argue that if cross-sectional and time-series variation in SCCEFs are linked to differences in sentiment, then the SCCEF discount can be used to predict future performance of SCCEFs, international stock markets, or both. The evidence on international stock markets' return predictability using SCCEF discounts is mixed. A trading strategy designed to exploit potential differences in sentiment by buying and selling international stock indices delivers alphas of around 90bps per month in an International CAPM. Adding three extra factors: value, size and momentum in U.S. equity does not change the result. However, once we control for international value and momentum in stock markets, we no longer observe positive alphas for short-horizon investments. The evidence on SCCEF return predictability from SCCEF discounts is very strong. For all three asset pricing models considered, a strategy that exploits differences in sentiment yields positive alphas, with magnitudes ranging from 2% to 4% per month. In Chapter 3, I investigate how the stock market reacts to earnings surprises announced during major sport events in the U.S. In a rational and frictionless market, investors should not react differently to announcements released during sport events. However, major sport events combine two known psychological biases. First, sports can be distracting, impairing investors' judgment. Second, sports can change people's mood. Hence, through these biases, market prices could be affected. Considering the Super Bowl, World Series of Baseball and NBA finals I find that investors, immediately after sport events, underreact to positive surprises, and overreact to negative surprises in earnings. After this initial reaction, I find that, investors undo their 'mistakes' in the following weeks to the announcement. However, for the most negative and positive surprises, they over-compensate. In this study, I show that non relevant financial events have an impact on market prices. Moreover, I show that the observed impact cannot be explained only by limited attention, as investor mood seems to be crucial to explain investors' reactions.
Author : Daniele Ballinari
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (125 download)
Download or read book Essays on Investors' Sentiment and Attention written by Daniele Ballinari and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first paper investigates the predictive power of investors' sentiment and attention for the stock returns' volatility. We introduce a novel and extensive dataset that combines information from social media platforms, news articles, search engine data, and information consumption. Applying a state-of-the-art sentiment classification technique, we construct measures of investors' sentiment and attention for 18 U.S. stocks and the financial market in general. We identify investors' attention, as measured by the number of Google searches on financial keywords (e.g. «financial market» and «stock market»), and the daily volume of company-specific short messages posted on the social media platform StockTwits to be the most relevant variables. The second paper investigates a potential driver of the predictive power documented in the first paper. We focus on news releases of 360 U.S. companies from the S&P 500 universe and analyze how investors' attention affects the speed at which new information is incorporated in stock prices. Our results show that higher investors' attention around news releases is related to higher contemporaneous volatility. Further, retail investor attention increases the post-announcement volatility, whereas institutional investor attention has a small but negative impact on volatility on days following news releases. The third paper extends the analysis of the first paper to the multivariate stock return volatility. Building on the theoretical and empirical evidence that links the price comovements with retail investors' behavior, we analyze the predictive power of retail investors' sentiment and attention for the realized correlation matrix of 35 Dow Jones stocks. We propose a new model of realized covariances that allows exogenous predictors to influence the correlation dynamics while ensuring the predicted matrices' positive definiteness. Using this model, we find retail investors' attention to have predictive power for return correlations, especially for longer forecasting horizons and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The last paper analyzes in more detail the time-series properties of the daily online investor sentiment measures used in the first two papers. We detect structural breaks in the sentiment series for most of the 360 U.S. companies considered in this paper. We illustrate the economic significance of this finding with a return prediction exercise.
Author : Jungwon Suh
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 178 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Essays on International Finance written by Jungwon Suh and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Samuel P. Fraiberger
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484389212
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices written by Samuel P. Fraiberger and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-10 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We assess the impact of media sentiment on international equity prices using more than 4.5 million Reuters articles published across the globe between 1991 and 2015. News sentiment robustly predicts daily returns in both advanced and emerging markets, even after controlling for known determinants of stock prices. But not all news-sentiment is alike. A local (country-specific) increase in news optimism (pessimism) predicts a small and transitory increase (decrease) in local returns. By contrast, changes in global news sentiment have a larger impact on equity returns around the world, which does not reverse in the short run. We also find evidence that news sentiment affects mainly foreign – rather than local – investors: although local news optimism attracts international equity flows for a few days, global news optimism generates a permanent foreign equity inflow. Our results confirm the value of media content in capturing investor sentiment.
Author : Jeffrey A. Frankel
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226260216
Total Pages : 428 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (262 download)
Download or read book The Internationalization of Equity Markets written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This timely volume addresses three important recent trends in the internationalization of United States equity markets: extensive market integration through foreign investment and links among stock prices around the world; increasing securitization as countries such as Japan come to rely more than ever before on markets in equities and bonds at the expense of banks; and the opening of national financial systems of newly industrializing countries to international financial flows and institutions, as governments remove capital controls and other barriers. Eight essays examine such issues as the current extent of international market integration, gains to U.S. investors through international diversification, home-country bias in investing, the role of time and location around the world in stock trading, and the behavior of country funds. Other, long-standing questions about equity markets are also addressed, including market efficiency and the accuracy of models of expected returns, with a particular focus on variances, covariances, and the price of risk according to the Capital Asset Pricing Model.
Author : Francisco Jose Guedes dos Santos
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (743 download)
Download or read book Essays in Financial Economics written by Francisco Jose Guedes dos Santos and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three essays that examine various problems in financial economics. Chapter 1 fills in a gap in the IPO literature by documenting a close connection between IPO underpricing and the long-term underperformance of IPOs. Firms going public in periods of low underpricing do not underperform in the long run, while firms going public in high underpricing periods do. Furthermore, IPOs in later stages of high underpricing periods underperform even relative to their offer prices, which suggests that many of the most "underpriced" IPOs are in fact priced above fundamental value. This result is unlikely to be explained by differences in risk, or to be driven by a peso problem. I also find that firms going public in later stages of high underpricing periods display worse operating performance and profitability, lower asset growth, lower investment rates and higher cash holdings. Finally, I provide evidence that investor sentiment is stronger in high-underpricing periods. These results are consistent with a setting in which low quality firms, in periods in which the average underpricing in the market is high, try to exploit investors' sentiment by going public. Chapter 2 looks at the return predictability information in Single Country Closed-End Fund (SCCEF) discounts. It is long argued that discounts in closed-end funds are caused by differences in sentiment between investors that trade the fund and investors that trade the underlying assets. SCCEFs provide an interesting setting given the clear market segmentation. American SCCEFs are priced by American investors, while underlying assets are mainly traded by investors in the respective country. I argue that if cross-sectional and time-series variation in SCCEFs are linked to differences in sentiment, then the SCCEF discount can be used to predict future performance of SCCEFs, international stock markets, or both. The evidence on international stock markets' return predictability using SCCEF discounts is mixed. A trading strategy designed to exploit potential differences in sentiment by buying and selling international stock indices delivers alphas of around 90bps per month in an International CAPM. Adding three extra factors: value, size and momentum in U.S. equity does not change the result. However, once we control for international value and momentum in stock markets, we no longer observe positive alphas for short-horizon investments. The evidence on SCCEF return predictability from SCCEF discounts is very strong. For all three asset pricing models considered, a strategy that exploits differences in sentiment yields positive alphas, with magnitudes ranging from 2% to 4% per month. In Chapter 3, I investigate how the stock market reacts to earnings surprises announced during major sport events in the U.S. In a rational and frictionless market, investors should not react differently to announcements released during sport events. However, major sport events combine two known psychological biases. First, sports can be distracting, impairing investors' judgment. Second, sports can change people's mood. Hence, through these biases, market prices could be affected. Considering the Super Bowl, World Series of Baseball and NBA finals I find that investors, immediately after sport events, underreact to positive surprises, and overreact to negative surprises in earnings. After this initial reaction, I find that, investors undo their 'mistakes' in the following weeks to the announcement. However, for the most negative and positive surprises, they over-compensate. In this study, I show that non relevant financial events have an impact on market prices. Moreover, I show that the observed impact cannot be explained only by limited attention, as investor mood seems to be crucial to explain investors' reactions.
Author : Haohan Ren
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (14 download)
Download or read book Two Essays on Investor Sentiment written by Haohan Ren and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Luqi Xu
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (128 download)
Download or read book Three Essays in Investments written by Luqi Xu and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sentiment is an important concept in economics and finance and has been the focus of many studies. Individual investors, professional investors, corporate managers, and households have sentiments on the economy and financial markets which affect their decisions, and hence economic activities and asset prices. Measuring sentiment and determining what factors affect it have significant importance in finance research. My dissertation studies this subject by introducing state-of-the-art methods from artificial intelligence to measure the sentiment in several sources of business text data, that is, public firms disclosures and mutual funds reports. I investigate the information content, determinants, and the effects of the sentiments on asset prices and investment decisions of investors. In chapter one, we use a novel text classification approach from deep learning to accurately measure sentiment in a large sample of 10-Ks. In contrast to prior literature, we find that both positive and negative sentiments predict abnormal returns and abnormal trading volume around the 10-K filing date and future firm fundamentals and policies. Our results suggest that the qualitative information contained in corporate annual reports is richer than previously found. In chapter two, I study the sentiment of mutual fund managers towards the stock market. Using a direct measure of managers market expectations extracted from mutual funds semi-annual reports, I find that fund managers extrapolate their funds past performance into their market outlook. Funds with managers who have higher market expectation take more risk by increasing their equity holdings and the beta of their equity portfolios, but underperform subsequently. In chapter three, we study the sentiment of mutual fund managers about specific stocks in their portfolios. We study some mutual funds practice of voluntarily disclosing investment ideas in their annual reports. The practice involves, at a minimum, expressing views on stocks which fund managers are optimistic about. We find that managers of larger and better performing funds discuss positions that have recently underperformed, those that make up larger portions of their portfolios, and those they have held for longer periods. Our findings suggest that managers disclose these recommendations to boost their own fund performance and to attract additional capital.
Download or read book Two Essays on Investor Sentiment and Equity Offerings written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using monthly open-end mutual fund flows as a proxy for investor sentiment, I am able to examine the impact of sentiment on IPO volume and underpricing. I find that issuers' filing decisions are significantly affected by the predicted future sentiment around the expected IPO dates. Furthermore, sentiment has an impact on the final offer price setting and over-allotment options exercised. While previous research documents IPO cycles with respect to other proxies for investor sentiment, I am able to examine IPO cycles and underpricing with respect to sentiment along with investor risk preferences. I hypothesize that a going public firm will try to issue its IPO when investor risk preferences are favorable to the firm's own risk characteristics. Empirical results based on 5,661 initial public offerings between 1986 and 2004 are consistent with my hypotheses that issuers not only time the market with sentiment in general, but also attempt to incorporate investor risk preferences into their going public decisions. Furthermore, underpricing is more severe when firms issue equity during months with large inflows into equity mutual funds. In my second essay, I find that SEO firms appear to time market efficiently because of the shorter filing periods compared to the average 2-3 months of the IPOs. Also, sentiment not only affects a SEO offer price setting but also affects the over-allotment options exercised. I examine two subgroups of the SEO samples: shelf registration and non-shelf SEOs. I find that shelf-registered SEOs incorporate investor sentiment into offering price to a greater degree compared to regular SEOs. Lastly I find that investor risk preference plays a role in firms' decision to file prospectuses with the SEC. In other words, firms rationally decide the timing of filing based on the predicted investor preference and try to match firm characteristics with investor preference around the expected SEO date.
Author : Shane K. Clark
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (141 download)
Download or read book Three Essays on Information, Volatility, and Crises in Equity Markets written by Shane K. Clark and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Essay 3 investigates the relation between proxies for investor sentiment and stock market crises and recoveries on international indices. Using an Early-Warning-System (EWS) model, the essay examines whether investor sentiment is a useful predictor for the occurrence of stock market crises and early signs of recovery. Three alternative proxies are used to measure investor sentiment, including previously cited measures of stock market riskiness, investors' risk aversion and investors' optimism about stock markets. The results show that investor sentiment is overall a significant predictor of the occurrence of crises within a one year period, and that the addition of sentiment into early warning signal models of stock market crises can improve the predictive performance of the model (increases in investor sentiment increase the probability of occurrence of a crisis, which is in line with previous contributions finding a negative lead-lag relation between sentiment and stock returns). The extension of the model to early signs of recoveries also shows that sentiment is a reliable predictor. The measure of stock market riskiness (Baker and Wurgler, 2006) is found to be a better predictor than the Volatility Index (VIX) and the Put-to-Call Ratio (PCR). The cross-country comparison results confirms the literature findings that the link between sentiment and stock market returns varies across indices and cultures, as the predictive power of the variable appears strongest in the French and U.S. indices.
Author : D. Tuckett
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 0230307825
Total Pages : 250 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (33 download)
Download or read book Minding the Markets written by D. Tuckett and published by Springer. This book was released on 2011-05-27 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tuckett argues that most economists' explanations of the financial crisis miss its essence; they ignore critical components of human psychology. He offers a deeper understanding of financial market behaviour and investment processes by recognizing the role played by unconscious needs and fears in all investment activity.
Author : Zachary R. Stangebye
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 332 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (946 download)
Download or read book Essays in Macroeconomic and International Finance written by Zachary R. Stangebye and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 332 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the first two chapters of this dissertation, I explore the potential for sovereign debt markets to experience a new type of dynamic lender coordination problem in sovereign debt markets that I call a dynamic panic. During a dynamic panic, expectations of future negative investor sentiments reduce the willingness of the sovereign to repay in the future and thus translate to negative investor sentiments today. I find conditions under which such sentiment dynamics can be active and document their presence in standard models. When the debt is of longer maturity I show that such panics resemble the recent Eurozone crisis, and so I explore policy implications in this environment. I find that interest rate ceilings are an ineffective policy tool but that liquidity provision by the ECB could be welfare-improving. Motivated by this result, in the second chapter I perform a structural estimation exercise to determine investors' ex ante forecast of such panics and the concomitant welfare consequences of liquidity provision. Using Bayesian methods and Spanish CDS spreads, I find that investors' forecast of such a crisis ex-ante was once every 7.37 years, which is in close accordance with the realized frequency of 7.5 years. I also find that liquidity provision by the ECB was likely welfare-improving. In the last chapter, my co-author and I document a downward trend in the leverage ratios of innovative firms. We argue that this trend could be the result of either a reduction in the cost of external equity finance or from a shifting the in the risk-frontier associated with innovation. To disentangle these alternative stories, we develop an equilibrium model of optimal finance choice. The estimated model suggests that a reduction in the cost of external equity finance is the more dominant driver of the observed trend: From the first time period to the next, the per-unit cost of equity falls by 31.6% while the risk frontier increases by only 4.7%.
Author : John B. Guerard, Jr.
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319339761
Total Pages : 480 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (193 download)
Download or read book Portfolio Construction, Measurement, and Efficiency written by John B. Guerard, Jr. and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-09-23 with total page 480 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume, inspired by and dedicated to the work of pioneering investment analyst, Jack Treynor, addresses the issues of portfolio risk and return and how investment portfolios are measured. In a career spanning over fifty years, the primary questions addressed by Jack Treynor were: Is there an observable risk-return trade-off? How can stock selection models be integrated with risk models to enhance client returns? Do managed portfolios earn positive, and statistically significant, excess returns and can mutual fund managers time the market? Since the publication of a pair of seminal Harvard Business Review articles in the mid-1960’s, Jack Treynor has developed thinking that has greatly influenced security selection, portfolio construction and measurement, and market efficiency. Key publications addressed such topics as the Capital Asset Pricing Model and stock selection modeling and integration with risk models. Treynor also served as editor of the Financial Analysts Journal, through which he wrote many columns across a wide spectrum of topics. This volume showcases original essays by leading researchers and practitioners exploring the topics that have interested Treynor while applying the most current methodologies. Such topics include the origins of portfolio theory, market timing, and portfolio construction in equity markets. The result not only reinforces Treynor’s lasting contributions to the field but suggests new areas for research and analysis.
Author : Yida Li
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (141 download)
Download or read book Essays on International Finance and Currency Economics written by Yida Li and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: My dissertation consists of three chapters which address questions in international finance and currency economics. Chapter 1 studies the persistence of covered interest rate parity (CIP) deviations. Since global financial crisis (GFC), the CIP deviations have implied a persistent dollar financing premium for banks versus other major currencies. In this paper, I decompose the CIP deviation into three parts: credit spread differential between U.S. and non- U.S. economies, bank’s default premium, and the liquidity needs of global banks. Then I empirically examine whether the data accords with the model predictions, and find that the relative significance of each component in CIP deviation has changed over time, as default premium was the dominant driver around GFC, credit spread differential has been catching up significantly in recent years. In chapter 2, we use a joint model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics to estimate the term premia and inflation risk premia embedded in the euro area and U.S. sovereign bonds yields. We find that the fall in real risk premia has been the primary driver of declining yields, given ECB assets purchases and forward guidance which lowered the uncertainty over the projected path of short-term rates. In addition, contrary to the Federal Reserve, the ECB’s new strategy review has yet to lift inflation expectations in our sample period with financial markets expecting inflation to remain below 2 percent. We subsequently build a model of the term premia to forecast the euro area 10-year yield curve and find that yields will likely remain depressed over the medium-term under various scenarios. In chapter 3, we examine the economic determinants of the foreign exchange uncertainty with a focus on options prices. FX option prices theoretically contain information over and above that is included in the spot exchange rate markets, as they reflect the market’s perception of the uncertainty surrounding future exchange rate developments. However, little research efforts have been devoted to examine the economic determinants of the FX uncertainty with a focus on options prices. This paper addresses this issue using the option data by characterizing the economic determinants of FX market un- certainty. In a data-rich environment containing a large number of macroeconomic variables, we find that shocks of output and income variables, as well as monetary and credit variables generate significant and consistent impacts on the general risk sentiment and tail risk in the FX market. Shrinkage method of group LASSO also selects macroeconomic fundamentals and financial variables to have consistent impacts on FX market uncertainties. Besides the standard linear analyses, we adopt the neural network method to examine the non-linear association between economic determinants and FX option volatility. The results connect the time-varying FX market risks at both short and long term with macroeconomic fundamentals, and may in addition suggest that financial uncertainty co-movements also exist in currency markets.
