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Essays On Interest Rates And The Housing Market
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Book Synopsis Essays on Interest Rates and the Housing Market by : Roberto Maria Croce
Download or read book Essays on Interest Rates and the Housing Market written by Roberto Maria Croce and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: In the first essay of this dissertation, "Monetary Policy and the Housing Cycle," I investigate the role of monetary policy in a housing boom that precipitated the U.S. financial crisis of 2007. I find expansionary policy between 2002 and 2005 accounts for about 50% of the peak deviation of real residential investment from its long-run trend, which occurred in the second quarter of 2005. To determine if monetary policy was a contributor to the housing boom I estimate a large dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) to fit the economy in several different time periods. I mathematically isolate a series of changes in the Fed Funds rate that are statistically unrelated to changes in the macroeconomy and classify these deviations as a measure of monetary policy. The magnitude of the monetary policy series is relatively small during the housing boom but explains half of the of the 2005 peak in residential investment because of inertia in the Fed Funds rate.
Book Synopsis Essays on Housing and Labor Markets by : Bulent Guler
Download or read book Essays on Housing and Labor Markets written by Bulent Guler and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 372 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the first chapter, I study the effects of innovations in information technology on the housing market. Specifically, I focus on the improved ability of lenders to assess the credit risk of home buyers, which has become possible with the emergence of automated underwriting systems in the United States in the mid-1990s. I develop a standard life-cycle model with incomplete markets and idiosyncratic income uncertainty. I explicitly model the housing tenure choice of the households: rent/purchase decision for renters and stay/sell/default decision for homeowners. Risk-free lenders offer mortgage contracts to prospective home buyers and the terms of these contracts depend on the observable characteristics of households. Households are born as either good credit risk types--having a high time discount factor--or bad types--having a low time discount factor. The type of the household is the only source of asymmetric information between households and lenders. I find that as lenders have better information about the type of households, the average down payment fraction decreases together with an increase in the average mortgage premium, the foreclosure rate, and the dispersions of mortgage interest rates and down payment fractions, which are consistent with the trends in the housing market in the last 15 years. From a welfare perspective, I find that better information, on average, makes households better off. In the second chapter, I focus on the labor market behavior of couples. Search theory routinely assumes that decisions about the acceptance/rejection of job offers (and, hence, about labor market movements between jobs or across employment states) are made by individuals acting in isolation. In reality, the vast majority of workers are somewhat tied to their partners--in couples and families--and decisions are made jointly. This chapter studies, from a theoretical viewpoint, the joint job-search and location problem of a household formed by a couple (e.g., husband and wife) who perfectly pool income. The objective of the exercise, very much in the spirit of standard search theory, is to characterize the reservation wage behavior of the couple and compare it to the single-agent search model in order to understand the ramifications of partnerships for individual labor market outcomes and wage dynamics. We focus on two main cases. First, when couples are risk averse and pool income, joint-search yields new opportunities--similar to on-the job search--relative to the single-agent search. Second, when couples face offers from multiple locations and a cost of living apart, joint-search features new frictions and can lead to significantly worse outcomes than single-agent search. Finally, in the third chapter, I focus on the relation between house prices and interest rates. Although interest rates and housing prices seem mostly to have a negative relation in the data, the relation does not seem to be stable. For example, the recent run up in the global housing prices is generally explained by globally low interest rates. On the other hand, there have been periods where housing prices and interest rates moved together. Motivated by these observations, I formulate a two period OLG model to find out the form of the relationship between interest rates and housing prices. It appears that the distribution of homeownership is also important for housing price dynamics. I show that housing prices in the equilibrium do not always have a negative relation with interest rates.
Book Synopsis Essays on Econometrics of Interest Rate and Housing-mortgage Market by : Xufeng Qian
Download or read book Essays on Econometrics of Interest Rate and Housing-mortgage Market written by Xufeng Qian and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Housing Markets and the Economy by : Karl E. Case
Download or read book Housing Markets and the Economy written by Karl E. Case and published by Lincoln Inst of Land Policy. This book was released on 2009 with total page 417 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on the work of Karl "Chip" Case, who is renowned for his scientific contributions to the economics of housing and public policy, this is a must read during a time of restructuring our nation's system of housing finance.
Book Synopsis Essays on Housing and Monetary Policy by : Min-Ho Nam
Download or read book Essays on Housing and Monetary Policy written by Min-Ho Nam and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 398 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis, motivated by my reflections about the failings of monetary policy implementation as a cause of the sub-prime crisis, attempts to answer the following inquiries: (i) whether interest rates have played a major role in generating the house price fluctuations in the U.S., (ii) what are the effects of accommodative monetary policy on the economy given banks' excessive risk-taking, and (iii) whether an optimal monetary policy rule can be found for curbing credit-driven economic volatilities in the model economy with unconventional transmission channels operating. By using a decomposition technique and regression analysis, it can be shown that short-term interest rates exert the most potent influence on the evolution of the volatile components of housing prices. One possible explanation for this is that low policy rates for a prolonged period tend to encourage bankers to take on more risk in lending. This transmission channel, labelled as the risk-taking channel, accounts for the gap to some extent between the forecast and the actual impact of monetary policy on the housing market and the overall economy. A looser monetary policy stance can also shift the preference of economic agents toward housing as theoretically and empirically corroborated in the context of choice between durable and nondurable goods. This transmission route is termed the preference channel. If these two channels are operative in the economy, policy makers need to react aggressively to rapid credit growth in order to stabilize the paths of housing prices and output. These findings provide meaningful implications for monetary policy implementation. First of all, central bankers should strive to identify in a timely fashion newly emerging and state-dependent transmission channels of monetary policy, and accurately assess the impact of policy decisions transmitted through these channels. Secondly, the intervention of central banks in the credit or housing market by adjusting policy rates can be optimal, relative to inaction, in circumstances where banks' risk-taking and the preference for housing are overly exuberant.
Book Synopsis Essays on the U.S. Housing Market and the Credit Market by : Chuanlei Sun
Download or read book Essays on the U.S. Housing Market and the Credit Market written by Chuanlei Sun and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Four Essays on Housing Market Dynamics by : Yasuhiro Nakagami
Download or read book Four Essays on Housing Market Dynamics written by Yasuhiro Nakagami and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 318 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Essays on Monetary Policy by : Omer Bayar
Download or read book Essays on Monetary Policy written by Omer Bayar and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Central banks use a series of relatively small interest rate changes in adjusting their monetary policy stance. This persistence in interest rate changes is well documented by empirical monetary policy reaction functions that feature a large estimated coefficient for the lagged interest rate. The two hypotheses that explain the size of this large estimated coefficient are monetary policy inertia and serially correlated macro shocks. In the first part of my dissertation, I show that the effect of inertia on the Federal Reserve's monthly funds rate adjustment is only moderate, and smaller than suggested by previous studies. In the second part, I present evidence that the temporal aggregation of interest rates puts an upward bias on the size of the estimated coefficient for the lagged interest rate. The third part of my dissertation is inspired by recent developments in the housing market and the resulting effect on the overall economy. In this third essay, we show that high loan-to-value mortgage borrowing reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy.
Book Synopsis Essays on Housing Prices by : Yifan Chen
Download or read book Essays on Housing Prices written by Yifan Chen and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation examines the dynamics between housing prices, firms, and households. The first chapter focuses on sequential information revelation in the housing markets; the second chapter investigates the impact of house price appreciation on the returns of value versus growth firms; the third chapter estimates the effect of gun control on home values. In Chapter 1, I use Amazon's progressive revelation of its new headquarters locations in Virginia and New York to demonstrate that the housing market fully incorporates information about future demand well before disclosure. Spatial difference-in-differences analysis shows that housing prices near the Virginia headquarters exhibit 4.9% premia before Amazon's headquarters decision but no additional increase upon decision. Price premia for New York reach 17.5% before the decision but disappear once Amazon cancels the headquarters. Other finalist cities exhibit no price premia, precluding the possibility of speculation. Overall, this study suggests that the housing market can quickly incorporate private information about future demand shocks. In Chapter 2, I investigate the value-growth premium puzzle by merging insights from urban economics and finance that relate firm location to its stock performance. The value-growth premium in locations with high historical house price appreciation is 3.6% per year larger than the premium in areas that experienced little house price appreciation. The results support investment-based models explaining the value premium; moreover I find the house price channel reduces returns of growth firms rather than increasing returns of value firms. House price appreciation remains significant after controlling for common explanations of the premium. In Chapter 3, using cross-border variation in the timing of state gun control law passage dates, I find that the introduction of universal background checks for gun sales results in a roughly 2.3 percent decline in housing prices on average. I find a more significant decrease in housing prices, i.e., up to 5.3 percent, if the state is neighboring a Republican rather than a Democratic state. This result is robust to several specification tests and does not appear to be associated with neighborhood crime rate changes.
Book Synopsis Interest Rate Elasticity of Residential Housing Prices by : Mr.Martin Cihak
Download or read book Interest Rate Elasticity of Residential Housing Prices written by Mr.Martin Cihak and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-10-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the interest rate elasticity of housing prices, advancingthe empirical literature in two directions. First, we take a commonly used cross-country panel dataset and evaluate the housing price equation using a consistent estimator in the presence of endogenous explanatory variables and a lagged dependent variable. Second, we carry-out a novel analysis of determinants of residential housing prices in a cross-section of countries. Our results show that the short-term interest rate, and hence monetary policy, has a sizable impact on residential housing prices.
Book Synopsis Essays in Housing and Macroeconomy by :
Download or read book Essays in Housing and Macroeconomy written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Compared to the previous twenty years, residential investments in the US appear more stable after the mid-1980s. Chapter 2 explores key hypotheses regarding the underlying causes. In particular, it uses estimated DSGE models to examine whether a more responsive interest rate policy stabilizes the housing market by keeping inflation in check. These estimations indeed found a policy that has become more responsive over time. Counter-factual analysis confirms that the change stabilizes inflation as well as nominal interest rate. It does not, however, find the change in policy to have stabilizing effect on real economic activity including housing investment. It finds that smaller TFP shocks make modest contributions, while the biggest contributing factor to the fall in the housing volatility is a reduction in the sensitivity of the investment to demand variations. Chapter 3 constructs a richly specified model for the housing market to examine the empirical relevance of various costs and frictions, including the investment adjustment cost, sticky construction costs, search frictions, and sluggish adjustment of house prices. Using the US national-level quarterly data from 1985 and 2007, we find that the gradual adjustment of house prices is the most important and irreplaceable feature of the model. The key to developing an optimization-based empirical housing model, therefore, is to provide a structural interpretation for the slow adjustment in house prices. Chapter 4 uses US national-level time series of residential investment, price index of new houses, consumption and interest rate to explore whether the US, as a nation, experienced a drop in the price elasticity of supply of new housing. Maximum likelihood estimations with a simple stock-and-flow model found a statistically significant drop of the elasticity from 10 to 2.2, when the quarterly data between 1971 and 2007 are split at 1985. A richer model with mechanisms of gradual adjustment also indicates such a reduct.
Book Synopsis Essays on Real Estate Investment by : Yongqiang Chu
Download or read book Essays on Real Estate Investment written by Yongqiang Chu and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :University of California, Berkeley. Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :384 pages Book Rating :4.X/5 ( download)
Book Synopsis Essays in Urban Land Economics by : University of California, Berkeley. Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics
Download or read book Essays in Urban Land Economics written by University of California, Berkeley. Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics and published by . This book was released on 1966 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Essays on Housing Markets and Location Activities by : Shaofeng Xu
Download or read book Essays on Housing Markets and Location Activities written by Shaofeng Xu and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: My dissertation studies the impact of housing markets on the macroeconomy and the role of transport technologies in the firm location activities. The first chapter of this dissertation examines the contributions of population aging, mortgage innovation and historically low interest rates to the sharp rise in U.S. house prices and mortgage debt between 1994 and 2005. I construct an overlapping generation general equilibrium model with fully specified demographic characteristics and mortgage markets, and compare the steady state equilibrium of the economy in 1994 to that in 2005. Population aging contributes to rising house prices and mortgage debt but it only accounts for a very small portion of their observed changes. Meanwhile, mortgage innovation significantly increases the mortgage borrowing of various age cohorts, but it has a trivial effect on house prices because interest rates rise due to rising demand for mortgage loans. This increases households' saving in financial assets and leaves their housing assets nearly unchanged. However, the rise in house prices can be justified in an open economy where interest rates fall due to a global saving glut. Declining interest rates force households in primary saving ages to reallocate their wealth from financial assets to housing assets which dramatically drives up house prices. The second chapter of this dissertation analyzes the effects of idiosyncratic income shocks on the housing tenure decision of a risk-averse household who chooses an optimal time to own a house as well as an optimal house size. I provide an explicit decomposition of the household's optimal saving rule to formalize various motives for holding financial wealth during her housing tenure transition. It's shown that the timing flexibility of homeownership enables the household's saving for future home purchase to buffer her non-housing consumption against income risks. The model also lends support to the previous empirical finding of a negative uncertainty-homeownership relationship. Rising income volatility increases a risk-averse household's option value to wait and postpones her home acquisition. The third chapter of this dissertation investigates the impact of economies of scale in transportation on a firm's location decision. I relate the location problem to weighted Fermat problems and ramified optimal transportation problems and provide an explicit analysis of how transport technologies affect the firm's transportation and location choices. It's found that in general when the level of transport economies of scale is high, the firm locates its factory in the interior of the Weber triangle with a branching transport structure. Two examples are constructed to illustrate how interactions between transport technology and production technology would influence the firm's choices on input purchase and factory location.
Book Synopsis Essays on Real Estate Economics and Finance by : Wenlan Qian
Download or read book Essays on Real Estate Economics and Finance written by Wenlan Qian and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Essays on Housing, Unemployment and Monetary Policy by : Ejindu Ume
Download or read book Essays on Housing, Unemployment and Monetary Policy written by Ejindu Ume and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 91 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this dissertation, I study the interconnections between the housing market and labor market, and the link between monetary policy and housing market activity. In the first chapter, I focus on the interplay between the housing and labor market. To do so, I construct a model of search and bargaining across two different markets: the labor market and the housing market. The model highlights that housing prices and frictions in the housing market have a profound impact on labor market activity through the desire of workers to eventually purchase a home, the "American Dream." The model also reveals that labor market frictions can impact housing market activity. I also perform a calibration exercise to evaluate economic activity in general equilibrium. I find that frictions in the housing market generate strong negative external effects on the labor market. More specifically, a tighter housing market is associated with higher unemployment rates and less job creation. Consequently, my findings suggest that policymakers should be very careful in implementing policies targeted towards housing -- housing markets are likely to generate significant external effects to other sectors of the economy, especially the labor market. To study the effects of monetary policy on housing market activity I develop an overlapping generations model in which housing is traded across generations of individuals. Incomplete information leads to a transactions role for money so that monetary policy can be effectively studied. Moreover, individuals face liquidity risk which interferes with their ability to accumulate housing wealth. Contrary to the existing literature, I demonstrate that it is important to disaggregate fixed investment between the residential and non-residential sectors. In particular, I find the effects of monetary policy are asymmetric across the components of the overall capital stock. I conclude this chapter with a policy experiment studying how optimal monetary policy depends on housing market fundamentals. In response to adverse supply conditions in the housing sector, monetary policy should be more aggressive in order to promote residential investment and the housing stock. However, monetary policy should be conservative in order to limit exposure to risk if fundamentals favor housing demand. The third chapter is an empirical look at the relationship between monetary policy and housing market activity. I analyze and quantify the effects of monetary policy on residential investment, housing starts, new private housing permits and new single family houses sold. To conduct the analysis I estimate a vector autoregression model (VAR) where the monetary policy shock is identified using sign restrictions. No restrictions are imposed on the variables of interest, however, in response to a monetary policy shock I impose sign restrictions on the impulse responses of price, output, reserves and the federal funds rate. I find that a contractionary monetary policy shock reduces housing market activity for up to a year after the shock. Interestingly, 2 to 3 years after the economy contracts, activity in the housing sector reverses course. The findings suggest that once the economy contracts the Federal Reserve Bank reverses course by lowering the federal funds rate, and this policy reversal stimulates housing market activity.
Book Synopsis Essays on the Effect of Household Debt and Housing Wealth on the U.S. Economy by : Kyoungsoo Yoon
Download or read book Essays on the Effect of Household Debt and Housing Wealth on the U.S. Economy written by Kyoungsoo Yoon and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 91 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: The two essays in my dissertation clarify the role of household debt and housing wealth in the U.S. economy because the effect of household debt and house prices on economic activity is conflicting based on existing empirical literature. In my first essay, Three Competing Effects of Expansion in Housing Finance on Consumption, I explicitly consider both debt service burden and wealth risk by adjusting income data with debt service and wealth data with its risk. Based on split-sample estimates of various consumption functions with different time horizons together with the data adjustment, I find that expansion in housing finance since the mid 1980s has three competing effects on consumption. First, housing finance expansion decreases the sensitivity of a household's consumption response to short-run and medium-run movements in income via a relaxed credit constraint. Second, an increase in the liquidity of housing wealth leads to a bigger response of consumption to changes in house prices. However, this increased housing wealth effect can be mitigated or magnified from the last competing effect of increased debt service, depending on the directions of movements in house prices and interest rates. Thus, the net effect of expanded housing finance on consumption depends on the relative magnitudes of the three competing effects in the face of movements in income, house prices, and interest rates. The second essay, The Role of Household Debt and Housing Wealth in the Recent Downturn of the U.S. Economy, uses state-level household debt and housing wealth data built from the Consumer Finance Monthly survey together with measures of economic activity at the state level during the business cycle of 2002-2009 in the U.S. to overcome limitations associated with national-level aggregate data. I find that increased household debt combined with large positive and negative fluctuations in housing wealth led to the recent severe downturn of the U.S. economy. While the increased debt service burden itself negatively affects consumption, households' attitudes toward debt surveyed as debt stress also seem to suppress economic activity such as consumption spending and residential investment.
