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Author : Maik Hendrik Wolters
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 213 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (682 download)
Download or read book Essays on Business Cycle Models, Forecasting and Monetary Policy written by Maik Hendrik Wolters and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 213 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226978923
Total Pages : 613 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (269 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Author : J.M. Berk
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9780792372691
Total Pages : 172 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (726 download)
Download or read book The Preparation of Monetary Policy written by J.M. Berk and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The second innovative aspect of this book is its focus on policy preparation instead of well-covered topics as monetary policy strategy, tactics and implementation. Thirdly, a general, multi-model framework for preparing monetary policy is proposed, which is illustrated by case studies stressing the role of international economic linkages and of expectations. Written in a self-contained fashion, these case studies are of interest by themselves.".
Author : Timothy William Cogley
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 294 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (7 download)
Download or read book Essays on Money and Business Cycles written by Timothy William Cogley and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Philip A. Klein
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 131549227X
Total Pages : 253 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (154 download)
Download or read book Analysing Modern Business Cycles: Essays Honoring Geoffrey H.Moore written by Philip A. Klein and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-07-25 with total page 253 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This "Festschrift" honours Geoffrey H. Moore's life-long contribution to the study of business cycles. After some analysts had concluded that business cycles were dead, renewed economic turbulence in the 1970s and 1980s brought new life to the subject. The study of business cycles now encompasses the global economic system, and this work aims to push back the frontiers of knowledge.
Author : James H. Stock
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226774740
Total Pages : 350 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (267 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting written by James H. Stock and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.
Author : Emrehan Aktuğ
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (134 download)
Download or read book Essays on Business Cycles and Monetary Policy written by Emrehan Aktuğ and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: My dissertation investigates the nonlinear dynamics in business cycles and the transmission of monetary policy using both empirical and theoretical frameworks. Chapter 1 examines the impact of macroeconomic asymmetry on the welfare cost of business cycles. I investigate the welfare cost of business cycles due to asymmetries generated by two occasionally binding constraints (OBCs): downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) and zero lower bound (ZLB). Although business cycle volatility has declined recently as the Great Moderation literature suggests, I find that the welfare cost of business cycles has doubled due to the increased skewness of business cycles over time that is apparent in the data. In a quantitative dynamic equilibrium model that accounts for volatility and skewness changes in pre and postVolcker periods, I estimate that the welfare cost of business cycles has increased from 0.57% (in terms of consumption equivalence) in the pre-Volcker period to 0.97% in the post-Volcker period. Counterfactual analysis shows that while both OBCs play a role, the binding ZLB explains most of the welfare effects in the post-Volcker period. Policy counterfactuals indicate that increasing the inflation target from 2% to 4% reduces the skewness of business cycles and the binding rates of both OBCs, thereby leading to a significant decrease in the welfare cost, from 0.97% to 0.67%. In Chapter 2, I investigate the welfare maximizing steady-state inflation rate in a heterogeneousagent New Keynesian model with Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity (DNWR). After matching the annual wage change distribution in the U.S., I show that DNWR has a very significant impact on the economy when the inflation target is low. Considering the effect of the zero lower bound, price dispersion due to sticky prices, declining natural rate of interest, and lower trend productivity, I find that the optimal inflation target should be much higher than 2%, close to 7%. This result holds taking transition dynamics into account and is robust to a wide range of parameterizations. Lastly, Chapter 3 analyzes the impact of heterogeneity in wage and price stickiness on the transmission of monetary policy. Using the price and wage rigidity estimates of previous studies, I find a slightly negative correlation between wage and price rigidity at the industry level. After categorizing 3-digit industries as rigid and flexible, I analyze the impulse responses of real variables to a monetary policy shock. I document a significant response of industrial production in price-rigid industries, whereas in wage-rigid industries the response is still significant but weaker. Consistent with the theory, the response in price- and wage-flexible industries is not significant. The empirical results suggest that due to relatively lower variation in wage stickiness at the industry level, price stickiness plays a more important role in the differential response of industries to a monetary policy shock. Besides, I develop a multi-sector model incorporating sector-level heterogeneity both in wage and price rigidity into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model and analyze the monetary non-neutrality for different specifications. The results of the model verify the empirical findings
Author : Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher : Turtleback
ISBN 13 : 9780613911382
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (113 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by Turtleback. This book was released on 1995-01-01 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513536990
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Author : Reinhard Neck
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540746846
Total Pages : 386 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (47 download)
Download or read book Quantitative Economic Policy written by Reinhard Neck and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-03-04 with total page 386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Econometric techniques and models are still being extensively used in the business of forecasting and policy advice. This book presents recent advances in the theory and applications of quantitative economic policy, with particular emphasis on fiscal and monetary policies in a European and global context. The volume honors Andrew Hughes Hallett, a pioneer and major scientist in quantitative economic policy analysis, whose contributors are among his friends and former students.
Author : Jing Han
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 95 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (624 download)
Download or read book Essays on Business Cycles and Monetary Policy written by Jing Han and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 95 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Both technology shocks and monetary policy shocks are important sources of economic fluctuations. My dissertation studies how these shocks affect the economy and how these shocks are propagated in the economy. A main theme is to detect the main propagation mechanisms of these shocks via both statistical approach and structural estimation approach.
Author : M.T. Belongia
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9401129568
Total Pages : 248 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (11 download)
Download or read book The Business Cycle: Theories and Evidence written by M.T. Belongia and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These proceedings, from a conference held at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on October 17-18, 1991, attempted to layout what we currently know about aggregate economic fluctuations. Identifying what we know inevitably reveals what we do not know about such fluctuations as well. From the vantage point of where the conference's participants view our current understanding to be, these proceedings can be seen as suggesting an agenda for further research. The conference was divided into five sections. It began with the formu lation of an empirical definition of the "business cycle" and a recitation of the stylized facts that must be explained by any theory that purports to capture the business cycle's essence. After outlining the historical develop ment and key features of the current "theories" of business cycles, the conference evaluated these theories on the basis of their ability to explain the facts. Included in this evaluation was a discussion of whether (and how) the competing theories could be distinguished empirically. The conference then examined the implications for policy of what is known and not known about business cycles. A panel discussion closed the conference, high lighting important unresolved theoretical and empirical issues that should be taken up in future business cycle research. What Is a Business Cycle? Before gaining a genuine understanding of business cycles, economists must agree and be clear about what they mean when they refer to the cycle.
Author : Khurshid M. Kiani
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 134 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Business Cycle Fluctuations and Economic Policy written by Khurshid M. Kiani and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book highlights the importance of studying similarity of business cycles across countries and answers the theoretical question about the behaviour of fluctuations in economic activity over different phases of business cycles. This is done by analysing cross-country data that provides sufficient empirical justifications on the behaviour of economic activity to conclude that business cycles are alike. Further, the book maintains, from the recent empirical research, that business cycles fluctuations are asymmetric. For empirical validation of the hypothesis that business cycles are asymmetric at least in the group of seven highly developed industrialised (G7) countries, real GDP growth rates from these countries are analysed using non-linear time series and switching time series models as well as in-sample and jack-knife out-of-sample forecasts from neural networks. While importance and application of non-linear and switching time series models are employed for testing possible existence of business cycle asymmetries in all the series after taking into account long memory, conditional heteroskedasticity, and time varying volatility in the series, usefulness of non-parametric techniques such as artificial neural networks forecasts are discussed and empirically tested to conclude that forecasts from neural networks are superior to the selected time series models. Additionally, the book presents a robust evidence of business cycle asymmetries in G7 countries, which is indeed, the answer to the basic research question on the behaviour of economic fluctuation over the business cycles. The book compares spill over and contagion effects due to business cycle fluctuations within the countries studied. In addition, having known the type of business cycle asymmetries, policy makers, empirical researchers, and forecasters would be able to employ appropriate forecasting models for forecasting impact of monetary policy or any other shock on the economies of these countries.
Author : Tong-hŏn Kim
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 166 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Essays on the Term Structure of Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, and Business Cycle written by Tong-hŏn Kim and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Rendigs Fels
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 160 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Forecasting and Recognizing Business Cycle Turning Points written by Rendigs Fels and published by . This book was released on 1968 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 2-part assessment of research methods in respect of forecasting periods of economic recession and economic growth, with particular reference to the USA - comprises (1) an investigation of problems in economic research of forecasting and recognising business cycle peaks and troughs, and (2) an evaluation of the performance of the federal open market committee of the u.s.a. In anticipating and recognising 7 cyclical turns since the 2nd world war. References.
Author : Elmer Clark Bratt
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781258454982
Total Pages : 514 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (549 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles and Forecasting written by Elmer Clark Bratt and published by . This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 514 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Lloyd M. Valentine
Publisher : Thomson South-Western
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 600 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles and Forecasting written by Lloyd M. Valentine and published by Thomson South-Western. This book was released on 1991 with total page 600 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
