Noise

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Publisher : Little, Brown
ISBN 13 : 031645138X
Total Pages : 429 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (164 download)

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Book Synopsis Noise by : Daniel Kahneman

Download or read book Noise written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Little, Brown. This book was released on 2021-05-18 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.

Judgment Misguided

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Author :
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 0195111087
Total Pages : 238 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (951 download)

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Book Synopsis Judgment Misguided by : Jonathan Baron

Download or read book Judgment Misguided written by Jonathan Baron and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 1998 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: People often follow intuitive principles of decision making, ranging from group loyalty to the belief that nature is benign. But instead of using these principles as rules of thumb, we often treat them as absolutes and ignore the consequences of following them blindly. In Judgment Misguided, Jonathan Baron explores our well-meant and deeply felt personal intuitions about what is right and wrong, and how they affect the public domain. Baron argues that when these intuitions are valued in their own right, rather than as a means to another end, they often prevent us from achieving the results we want. Focusing on cases where our intuitive principles take over public decision making, the book examines some of our most common intuitions and the ways they can be misused. According to Baron, we can avoid these problems by paying more attention to the effects of our decisions. Written in a accessible style, the book is filled with compelling case studies, such as abortion, nuclear power, immigration, and the decline of the Atlantic fishery, among others, which illustrate a range of intuitions and how they impede the public's best interests. Judgment Misguided will be important reading for those involved in public decision making, and researchers and students in psychology and the social sciences, as well as everyone looking for insight into the decisions that affect us all.

Error of Judgment

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780446405270
Total Pages : 400 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (52 download)

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Book Synopsis Error of Judgment by : Dexter Dias

Download or read book Error of Judgment written by Dexter Dias and published by . This book was released on 1997-11 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Errors of Judgment

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Author :
Publisher : Allison & Busby
ISBN 13 : 0749014822
Total Pages : 300 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (49 download)

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Book Synopsis Errors of Judgment by : Caro Fraser

Download or read book Errors of Judgment written by Caro Fraser and published by Allison & Busby. This book was released on 2013-09-30 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With a hedonistic personal lifestyle so often at odds with his professional existence, Leo Davies QC, head of chambers at 5 Caper Court, is thinking he has perhaps reached an age when he should opt for a quieter pace of life. But when a lovely face from the past turns up, an ex-lover who can give him a run for his money any day in games of sex and intrigue, Leo realizes he relishes the challenges as much as ever. And what of Anthony Cross, younger member of chambers, former love interest, and the man Leo has never quite been able to rid from his mind? When Anthony falls in love with a beguiling young law student, it sets off a chain of events in which Leo is more closely involved than he ever could have imagined. Behind the sedate exterior of 5 Caper Court, the lives of its employees twist and turn in ever more intriguing ways ...

Decisive

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Publisher : Random House Canada
ISBN 13 : 0307361144
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (73 download)

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Book Synopsis Decisive by : Chip Heath

Download or read book Decisive written by Chip Heath and published by Random House Canada. This book was released on 2013-03-26 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The four principles that can help us to overcome our brains' natural biases to make better, more informed decisions--in our lives, careers, families and organizations. In Decisive, Chip Heath and Dan Heath, the bestselling authors of Made to Stick and Switch, tackle the thorny problem of how to overcome our natural biases and irrational thinking to make better decisions, about our work, lives, companies and careers. When it comes to decision making, our brains are flawed instruments. But given that we are biologically hard-wired to act foolishly and behave irrationally at times, how can we do better? A number of recent bestsellers have identified how irrational our decision making can be. But being aware of a bias doesn't correct it, just as knowing that you are nearsighted doesn't help you to see better. In Decisive, the Heath brothers, drawing on extensive studies, stories and research, offer specific, practical tools that can help us to think more clearly about our options, and get out of our heads, to improve our decision making, at work and at home.

Expert Political Judgment

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Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400888816
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Expert Political Judgment by : Philip E. Tetlock

Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

Judgment Under Uncertainty

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Author :
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521284141
Total Pages : 574 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (841 download)

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Book Synopsis Judgment Under Uncertainty by : Daniel Kahneman

Download or read book Judgment Under Uncertainty written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1982-04-30 with total page 574 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.

Common Errors in English Usage

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Publisher : Franklin, Beedle & Associates, Inc.
ISBN 13 : 1887902899
Total Pages : 261 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (879 download)

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Book Synopsis Common Errors in English Usage by : Paul Brians

Download or read book Common Errors in English Usage written by Paul Brians and published by Franklin, Beedle & Associates, Inc.. This book was released on 2003 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Online version of Common Errors in English Usage written by Paul Brians.

Model Rules of Professional Conduct

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Publisher : American Bar Association
ISBN 13 : 9781590318737
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (187 download)

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Book Synopsis Model Rules of Professional Conduct by : American Bar Association. House of Delegates

Download or read book Model Rules of Professional Conduct written by American Bar Association. House of Delegates and published by American Bar Association. This book was released on 2007 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Model Rules of Professional Conduct provides an up-to-date resource for information on legal ethics. Federal, state and local courts in all jurisdictions look to the Rules for guidance in solving lawyer malpractice cases, disciplinary actions, disqualification issues, sanctions questions and much more. In this volume, black-letter Rules of Professional Conduct are followed by numbered Comments that explain each Rule's purpose and provide suggestions for its practical application. The Rules will help you identify proper conduct in a variety of given situations, review those instances where discretionary action is possible, and define the nature of the relationship between you and your clients, colleagues and the courts.

Error of Judgement

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780340671702
Total Pages : 358 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (717 download)

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Book Synopsis Error of Judgement by : Dexter Dias

Download or read book Error of Judgement written by Dexter Dias and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

An Analysis of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman's Judgment Under Uncertainty

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Author :
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1351350609
Total Pages : 93 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (513 download)

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Book Synopsis An Analysis of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman's Judgment Under Uncertainty by : Camille Morvan

Download or read book An Analysis of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman's Judgment Under Uncertainty written by Camille Morvan and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-07-05 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman’s 1974 paper ‘Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases’ is a landmark in the history of psychology. Though a mere seven pages long, it has helped reshape the study of human rationality, and had a particular impact on economics – where Tversky and Kahneman’s work helped shape the entirely new sub discipline of ‘behavioral economics.’ The paper investigates human decision-making, specifically what human brains tend to do when we are forced to deal with uncertainty or complexity. Based on experiments carried out with volunteers, Tversky and Kahneman discovered that humans make predictable errors of judgement when forced to deal with ambiguous evidence or make challenging decisions. These errors stem from ‘heuristics’ and ‘biases’ – mental shortcuts and assumptions that allow us to make swift, automatic decisions, often usefully and correctly, but occasionally to our detriment. The paper’s huge influence is due in no small part to its masterful use of high-level interpretative and analytical skills – expressed in Tversky and Kahneman’s concise and clear definitions of the basic heuristics and biases they discovered. Still providing the foundations of new work in the field 40 years later, the two psychologists’ definitions are a model of how good interpretation underpins incisive critical thinking.

Judgment

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Author :
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 1101216549
Total Pages : 412 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (12 download)

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Book Synopsis Judgment by : Noel M. Tichy

Download or read book Judgment written by Noel M. Tichy and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2007-11-08 with total page 412 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “With good judgment, little else matters. Without it, nothing else matters.” Whether we’re talking about United States presidents, CEOs, Major League coaches, or wartime generals, leaders are remembered for their best and worst judgment calls. In the face of ambiguity, uncertainty, and conflicting demands, the quality of a leader’s judgment determines the fate of the entire organization. That’s why judgment is the essence of leadership. Yet despite its importance, judgment has always been a fairly murky concept. The leadership literature has been conspicuously quiet on what, exactly, defines it. Does judgment differ from common sense or gut instinct? Is it a product of luck? Of smarts? Or is there a process for making consistently good calls? Noel Tichy and Warren Bennis have each spent decades studying and teaching leadership and advising top CEOs such as Jack Welch and Howard Schultz. Now, in their first collaboration, they offer a powerful framework for making tough calls when the stakes are high and the right path is far from obvious. They show how to recognize the critical moment before a judgment call, when swift and decisive action is essential, and also how to execute a decision after the call. Tichy and Bennis bring their three-dimensional model to life with interviews with world-class leaders who have thrived or suffered because of their judgment calls. These stories include: • Jeff Immelt, CEO of General Electric, whose judgment to grow through research and development transformed GE into the world’s premier technology growth company. • Joel Klein, chancellor of the New York City Department of Education, who made tough calls about teachers, students, and parents while turning around a troubled school system. • Jim McNerney, CEO of Boeing, whose strategic judgment helped him reinvigorate his company and restore a culture of trust and respect. • The late general Wayne Downing, who found an unexpected opportunity in the midst of crisis when he led the Special Operations raid to capture Manuel Noriega. • A. G. Lafley, CEO of Procter & Gamble, who bet $57 billion to purchase Gillette and reinvent his company. • Brad Anderson, CEO of Best Buy, who made the call to commit totally to a customer-centric strategy and led his people to execute it. Whether you’re running a small department or a global corporation, Judgment will give you a framework for evaluating any situation, making the call, and correcting if necessary during the execution phase. It will show you how to handle the overlapping domains of people, strategy, and crisis management. And it will help you teach your entire team to make the right call more often. No organization can afford to neglect this crucial discipline—and no previous book has ever brought it into such clear focus.

Judgment and Decision Making

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Author :
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1405123982
Total Pages : 246 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (51 download)

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Book Synopsis Judgment and Decision Making by : David Hardman

Download or read book Judgment and Decision Making written by David Hardman and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-02-09 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Judgment and Decision Making is a refreshingly accessible text that explores the wide variety of ways people make judgments. An accessible examination of the wide variety of ways people make judgments Features up-to-date theoretical coverage, including perspectives from evolutionary psychology and neuroscience Covers dynamic decision making, everyday decision making, individual differences, group decision making, and the nature of mind and brain in relation to judgment and decision making Illustrates key concepts with boxed case studies and cartoons

Walker's Errors in Civil Proceedings

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 1474 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Walker's Errors in Civil Proceedings by : William Slee Walker

Download or read book Walker's Errors in Civil Proceedings written by William Slee Walker and published by . This book was released on 1917 with total page 1474 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Evolutionary Ethnobiology

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 331919917X
Total Pages : 207 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (191 download)

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Book Synopsis Evolutionary Ethnobiology by : Ulysses Paulino Albuquerque

Download or read book Evolutionary Ethnobiology written by Ulysses Paulino Albuquerque and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-09-23 with total page 207 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ethnobiology is a fascinating science. To understand this vocation it needs to be studied under an evolutionary point of view that is very strong and significant, although this aspect is often poorly approached in the literature. This is the first book to compile and discuss information about evolutionary ethnobiology in English.

Handbook of Behavioral Economics - Foundations and Applications 2

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Author :
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0444633960
Total Pages : 528 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (446 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Behavioral Economics - Foundations and Applications 2 by :

Download or read book Handbook of Behavioral Economics - Foundations and Applications 2 written by and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2019-02-11 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Behavioral Economics, Volume 2, Foundations and Applications offers critical perspectives on theoretical work within behavioral economics, delivering a comprehensive, critical, up-to-date, and accessible review of the field that has always been missing. This literature summary of the conceptual foundations underlying behavioral economics is written by, and for, economists, with chapters covering Intertemporal choice, Reference-dependent preferences, Beliefs, Cognition, Social preferences, Behavioral game theory, Welfare, and Neuroeconomics. Helps academic and non-academic economists understand recent rapid changes in theoretical advances within behavioral economics Designed for economists already convinced of the benefits of behavioral economics and mainstream economists who feel threatened by new developments in behavioral economics Written for those who wish to become quickly acquainted with behavioral economics

The Riddle of Harmless Error

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Author :
Publisher : Columbus : Ohio State University Press
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 136 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (31 download)

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Book Synopsis The Riddle of Harmless Error by : Roger J. Traynor

Download or read book The Riddle of Harmless Error written by Roger J. Traynor and published by Columbus : Ohio State University Press. This book was released on 1970 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: