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Environmental Foresight And Models
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Book Synopsis Environmental Foresight and Models by : M.B. Beck
Download or read book Environmental Foresight and Models written by M.B. Beck and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2002-03-20 with total page 490 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Policy-makers and the public, it has famously been said, are more interested in the possibility of non-linear dislocations and surprises in the behaviour of the environment than in smooth extrapolations of current trends. The International Task Force in Forecasting Environmental Change (1993-1998) dedicated its work to developing procedures of model building capable of addressing our palpable concerns for substantial change in the future. This volume discusses the immense challenges that such structural change presents - that the behaviour of the environment may become radically different from that observed in the past - and investigates the potentially profound implications for model development. Drawing upon case histories from the Great Lakes, acidic atmospheric deposition and, among others, the urban ozone problem, this discourse responds to a new agenda of questions. For example: "What system of 'radar' might we design to detect threats to the environment lying just beyond the 'horizon'?" and "Are the seeds of structural change identifiable within the record of the recent past?" Meticulously researched by leading environmental modellers, this milestone volume engages vigorously with its subject and offers an animated account of how models can begin to take into consideration the significant threats and uncertainties posed by structural change.
Book Synopsis Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation by : Ian Miles
Download or read book Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation written by Ian Miles and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-08-29 with total page 279 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision-makers at all levels are being confronted with novel complexities and uncertainties and face long-term challenges which require foresight about long-term future prospects, assumptions, and strategies. This book explores how foresight studies can be systematically undertaken and used in this context. It explicates why and how methods like horizon scanning, scenario planning, and roadmapping should be applied when dealing with high levels of uncertainty. The scope of the book moves beyond “narrow” technology foresight, towards addressing systemic interrelations between social, technological, economic, environmental, and political systems. Applications of foresight tools to such fields as energy, cities, health, transportation, education, and sustainability are considered as well as enabling technologies including nano-, bio-, and information technologies and cognitive sciences. The approaches will be illustrated with specific actual cases.
Book Synopsis Foresight in Action by : Marjolein van Asselt
Download or read book Foresight in Action written by Marjolein van Asselt and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-06-25 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assessing the future is vital in informing public policy decisions. One of the most widespread approaches is the development of scenarios, which are alternative hypothetical futures. Research has indicated, however, that the reality of how professionals go about employing scenarios is often starkly at odds with the theory - a finding that has important ramifications for how the resulting images of the future should be interpreted. It also shows the need for rewriting and updating theory. This book, based on an intensive five year study of how experts actually go about assessing the future, provides a groundbreaking examination of foresighting in action. Obtained via ethnographic techniques, the results lay bare for the first time the real processes by which scenarios are made. It is also the first book to examine foresighting for public policy, which is so often overlooked in favour of business practice. From handling of discontinuity to historical determinism, the analysis reveals and explains why foresight is difficult and what the major pitfalls are. Each chapter ends with a toolkit of recommendations for practice. The book aims to help readers to reflect on their own practices of public-oriented foresight and thus to foster a deeper understanding of the key principles and challenges. Ultimately, this will lead to better informed decision making.
Book Synopsis Models of the Ecological Hierarchy by :
Download or read book Models of the Ecological Hierarchy written by and published by Newnes. This book was released on 2012-12-31 with total page 595 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the application of statistics to ecological inference problems, hierarchical models combine explicit models of ecological system structure or dynamics with models of how ecological systems are observed. The principles of hierarchical modeling are applied in this book to a wide range of problems ranging from the molecular level, through populations, ecosystems, landscapes, networks, through to the global ecosphere. Provides an excellent introduction to modelling Collects together in one source a wide range of modelling techniques Covers a wide range of topics, from the molecular level to the global ecosphere
Book Synopsis Sustainable Futures in the Built Environment to 2050 by : Tim Dixon
Download or read book Sustainable Futures in the Built Environment to 2050 written by Tim Dixon and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-01-09 with total page 426 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Brings together leading thinking on issues of new professional practice and on the future of a sustainable built environment This book focuses on both construction and development issues, and examines how we can transition to a sustainable future by the year 2050—bringing together leading research and practice at building, neighbourhood, and city levels. It deftly analyses how emerging socio-economic, technological, and environmental trends will influence the built environment of the future. The book covers a broad spectrum of interests across the scales of buildings, communities and cities, including how professional practice will need to adapt to these trends. The broader context is provided by an analysis of emergent business models and the changing requirements for expert advice from clients. Sustainable Futures in the Built Environment to 2050: A Foresight Approach to Construction and Development features chapters covering: data and trends, including historical data and UK and international case studies; policies and practice related to the field; current state of scientific understanding; key challenges; key technological advances (including disruptive and systemic technological innovations); change issues and critical uncertainties; and future visions. It provides: A strong conceptual framework based on a ‘Foresight' approach Discussion of the key data and trends that underpin each chapter Coverage of both construction and property development Specially commissioned chapters by academics and practitioners A synthesis of the main findings in the book and key insights for the future to 2050 Sustainable Futures in the Built Environment to 2050: A Foresight Approach to Construction and Development is an important book for postgraduate students and researchers, construction, real estate and property development specialists, engineers, planners, architects, foresight and futures studies specialists, and anyone involved in sustainable buildings.
Author :National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309495679 Total Pages :393 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (94 download)
Book Synopsis Safeguarding the Bioeconomy by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Download or read book Safeguarding the Bioeconomy written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2020-05-01 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research and innovation in the life sciences is driving rapid growth in agriculture, biomedical science, information science and computing, energy, and other sectors of the U.S. economy. This economic activity, conceptually referred to as the bioeconomy, presents many opportunities to create jobs, improve the quality of life, and continue to drive economic growth. While the United States has been a leader in advancements in the biological sciences, other countries are also actively investing in and expanding their capabilities in this area. Maintaining competitiveness in the bioeconomy is key to maintaining the economic health and security of the United States and other nations. Safeguarding the Bioeconomy evaluates preexisting and potential approaches for assessing the value of the bioeconomy and identifies intangible assets not sufficiently captured or that are missing from U.S. assessments. This study considers strategies for safeguarding and sustaining the economic activity driven by research and innovation in the life sciences. It also presents ideas for horizon scanning mechanisms to identify new technologies, markets, and data sources that have the potential to drive future development of the bioeconomy.
Book Synopsis System Identification, Environmental Modelling, and Control System Design by : Liuping Wang
Download or read book System Identification, Environmental Modelling, and Control System Design written by Liuping Wang and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-10-20 with total page 653 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is dedicated to Prof. Peter Young on his 70th birthday. Professor Young has been a pioneer in systems and control, and over the past 45 years he has influenced many developments in this field. This volume comprises a collection of contributions by leading experts in system identification, time-series analysis, environmetric modelling and control system design – modern research in topics that reflect important areas of interest in Professor Young’s research career. Recent theoretical developments in and relevant applications of these areas are explored treating the various subjects broadly and in depth. The authoritative and up-to-date research presented here will be of interest to academic researcher in control and disciplines related to environmental research, particularly those to with water systems. The tutorial style in which many of the contributions are composed also makes the book suitable as a source of study material for graduate students in those areas.
Book Synopsis Environmental Modelling by : Keith Beven
Download or read book Environmental Modelling written by Keith Beven and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2010-02-25 with total page 329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty in the predictions of science when applied to the environment is an issue of great current relevance in relation to the impacts of climate change, protecting against natural and man-made disasters, pollutant transport and sustainable resource management. However, it is often ignored both by scientists and decision makers, or interpreted as a conflict or disagreement between scientists. This is not necessarily the case, the scientists might well agree, but their predictions would still be uncertain and knowledge of that uncertainty might be important in decision making. Environmental Modelling: An Uncertain Future? introduces students, scientists and decision makers to: the different concepts and techniques of uncertainty estimation in environmental prediction the philosophical background to different concepts of uncertainty the constraint of uncertainties by the collection of observations and data assimilation in real-time forecasting techniques for decision making under uncertainty. This book will be relevant to environmental modellers, practitioners and decision makers in hydrology, hydraulics, ecology, meteorology and oceanography, geomorphology, geochemistry, soil science, pollutant transport and climate change. A companion website for the book can be found at www.uncertain-future.org.uk
Book Synopsis Environmental Modelling by : John Wainwright
Download or read book Environmental Modelling written by John Wainwright and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-04-01 with total page 493 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Simulation models are an established method used to investigate processes and solve practical problems in a wide variety of disciplines. Central to the concept of this second edition is the idea that environmental systems are complex, open systems. The authors present the diversity of approaches to dealing with environmental complexity and then encourage readers to make comparisons between these approaches and between different disciplines. Environmental Modelling: Finding Simplicity in Complexity 2nd edition is divided into four main sections: An overview of methods and approaches to modelling. State of the art for modelling environmental processes Tools used and models for management Current and future developments. The second edition evolves from the first by providing additional emphasis and material for those students wishing to specialize in environmental modelling. This edition: Focuses on simplifying complex environmental systems. Reviews current software, tools and techniques for modelling. Gives practical examples from a wide variety of disciplines, e.g. climatology, ecology, hydrology, geomorphology and engineering. Has an associated website containing colour images, links to WWW resources and chapter support pages, including data sets relating to case studies, exercises and model animations. This book is suitable for final year undergraduates and postgraduates in environmental modelling, environmental science, civil engineering and biology who will already be familiar with the subject and are moving on to specialize in the field. It is also designed to appeal to professionals interested in the environmental sciences, including environmental consultants, government employees, civil engineers, geographers, ecologists, meteorologists, and geochemists.
Book Synopsis Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies by : Maria Giaoutzi
Download or read book Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies written by Maria Giaoutzi and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-11-28 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Foresight is an area within Futures Studies that focuses on critical thinking concerning long term developments, whether within the public sector or in industry and management, and is something of a sub-section of complexity and network science. This book examines developments in foresight methodologies and relates in its greater part to the work done in the context of the COSTA22 network of the EU on Foresight Methodologies. Foresight is a professional practice that supports significant decisions, and as such it needs to be more assured of its claims to knowledge (methodology). Foresight is practiced across many domains and is not the preserve of specialized ‘futurists’, or indeed of foresight specialists. However, the disciplines of foresight are not well articulated or disseminated across domains, leading to re-inventions and practice that does not make best use of experience in other domains. The methodological development of foresight is an important task that aims at strengthening the pool of the tools available for application, thereby empowering the actors involved in foresight practice. Elaborating further on methodological issues, such as those presented in the present book, enables the actors involved in foresight to begin to critique current practice from this perspective and, thirdly, to begin to design foresight practice. The present trends towards methodological concerns indicates a move from ‘given’ expert-predicted futures to one in which futures are nurtured through a dialogue among “stakeholders.” The book has four parts, each elaborating on a set of aspects of foresight methodologies. After an introductory section, Part II considers theorizing about foresight methodologies. Part III covers system content issues, and Part IV presents foresight tools and approaches.
Book Synopsis Time and Methods in Environmental Interfaces Modelling by : Dragutin T Mihailovic
Download or read book Time and Methods in Environmental Interfaces Modelling written by Dragutin T Mihailovic and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2016-10-31 with total page 414 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Time and Methods in Environmental Interfaces Modelling: Personal Insights considers the use of time in environmental interfaces modeling and introduce new methods, from the global scale (e.g. climate modeling) to the micro scale (e.g. cell and nanotubes modeling), which primarily arise from the personal research insights of the authors. As the field of environmental science requires the application of new fundamental approaches that can lead to a better understanding of environmental phenomena, this book helps necessitate new approaches in modeling, including category theory, that follow new achievements in physics, mathematics, biology, and chemistry. Includes the use of new mathematical tools, such as category theory, mathematical theory of general systems and formal concept analysis, matrix theory tools, stability analysis, and pseudospectra Presents new content related to time in relation to physics and biology Combines the word of an experienced author team with over 35 papers of collective experience
Book Synopsis Ecological Modeling by : Hsiao-Hsuan Wang
Download or read book Ecological Modeling written by Hsiao-Hsuan Wang and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2019-08-14 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ecological Modeling: An Introduction to the Art and Science of Modeling Ecological Systems, Volume 31, presents the skills needed to appropriately evaluate and use ecological models. Illustrated throughout with practical examples, the book discusses ecological modeling as both an art and a science, balancing the qualitative (artistic) side, with its foundations in common sense and modeling practice, against the quantitative (scientific) aspects of the modeling process. This book draws on the authors’ extensive experience in both teaching and using these techniques to provide readers with a practical, user-friendly guide that supports and encourages the appropriate, effective use of these tools. Provides readers with a commonsense understanding of the systems perspective and its foundations in general system theory Highlights the importance of a solid understanding of the qualitative aspects of the modeling process Facilitates the ability to appropriately evaluate and use ecological models Supports learning with a variety of simple examples to instill the desire and confidence to embark upon the modeling experience
Book Synopsis Environmental Modelling, Software and Decision Support by : Anthony J. Jakeman
Download or read book Environmental Modelling, Software and Decision Support written by Anthony J. Jakeman and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2008-09-11 with total page 387 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The complex and multidisciplinary nature of environmental problems requires that they are dealt with in an integrated manner. Modeling and software have become key instruments used to promote sustainability and improve environmental decision processes, especially through systematic integration of various knowledge and data and their ability to foster learning and help make predictions. This book presents the current state-of-the-art in environmental modeling and software and identifies the future challenges in the field. State-of-the-art in environmental modeling and software theory and practice for integrated assessment and management serves as a starting point for researchers Identifies the areas of research and practice required for advancing the requisite knowledge base and tools, and their wider usage Best practices of environmental modeling enables the reader to select appropriate software and gives the reader tools to integrate natural system dynamics with human dimensions
Book Synopsis Surface and Ground Water, Weathering, and Soils by : J.I. Drever
Download or read book Surface and Ground Water, Weathering, and Soils written by J.I. Drever and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2005-11-21 with total page 645 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volume 5 has several objectives. The first is to present an overview of the composition of surface and ground waters on the continents and the mechanisms that control the compositions. The second is to present summaries of the tools and methodologies used in modern studies of the geochemistry of surface and ground waters. The third is to present information on the role of weathering and soil formation in geochemical cycles: weathering affects the chemistry of the atmosphere through uptake of carbon dioxide and oxygen, and paleosols (preserved soils in the rock record) provide information on the composition of the atmosphere in the geological past. Reprinted individual volume from the acclaimed Treatise on Geochemistry (10 Volume Set, ISBN 0-08-043751-6, published in 2003). Present an overview of the composition of surface and ground waters on the continents and the mechanisms that control the compositions Provides summaries of the tools and methodologies used in modern studies of the geochemistry of surface and ground waters Features information on the role of weathering and soil formation in geochemical cycles Contains information on the composition of the atmosphere in the geological past Reprinted individual volume from the acclaimed Treatise on Geochemistry, 10 volume set
Book Synopsis Environmental Modelling and Prediction by : Gongbing Peng
Download or read book Environmental Modelling and Prediction written by Gongbing Peng and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 487 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book the authors consider the natural environment as an integrated system. The physical, chemical and biological processes that govern the behaviour of the environmental system can thus be understood through mathematical modelling, and their evolution can be studied by means of numerical simulation. The book contains a summary of various efficient approaches in atmospheric prediction, such as numerical weather prediction and statistical forecast of climate change, as well as other successful methods in land surface modelling. The authors explore new theories and methods in environment prediction such as systems analysis and information theory. Attention is given to new achievements in remote sensing tele-metering and geographic information systems.
Book Synopsis Quantitative foresight modeling to inform the CGIAR research portfolio by : Rosegrant, Mark W.
Download or read book Quantitative foresight modeling to inform the CGIAR research portfolio written by Rosegrant, Mark W. and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2017-04-14 with total page 225 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report provides a quantitative assessment of the impacts of alternative investment options on the CGIAR’s SLOs (relating to poverty – SLO1, food and nutrition security – SLO2, and natural resources and ecosystem services – SLO3) in the context of changes in population, income, technology, and climate to 2050 as well as for key SDGs of importance to the developing world. The report serves as a source of information and evidence of the impact of CGIAR efforts in agricultural R&D as well as the role of complementary investments. It is intended to help the CGIAR Centers, CG Research Programs (CRP), system management, and donors to complement other efforts to assess the overall impact and benefits of investing in international and national agricultural research programs.
Book Synopsis Chaos in Hydrology by : Bellie Sivakumar
Download or read book Chaos in Hydrology written by Bellie Sivakumar and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-11-16 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This authoritative book presents a comprehensive account of the essential roles of nonlinear dynamic and chaos theories in understanding, modeling, and forecasting hydrologic systems. This is done through a systematic presentation of: (1) information on the salient characteristics of hydrologic systems and on the existing theories for their modeling; (2) the fundamentals of nonlinear dynamic and chaos theories, methods for chaos identification and prediction, and associated issues; (3) a review of the applications of chaos theory in hydrology; and (4) the scope and potential directions for the future. This book bridges the divide between the deterministic and the stochastic schools in hydrology, and is well suited as a textbook for hydrology courses.
