Disease Control Priorities, Third Edition (Volume 9)

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Author :
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464805288
Total Pages : 426 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Disease Control Priorities, Third Edition (Volume 9) by : Dean T. Jamison

Download or read book Disease Control Priorities, Third Edition (Volume 9) written by Dean T. Jamison and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2017-12-06 with total page 426 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the culminating volume in the DCP3 series, volume 9 will provide an overview of DCP3 findings and methods, a summary of messages and substantive lessons to be taken from DCP3, and a further discussion of cross-cutting and synthesizing topics across the first eight volumes. The introductory chapters (1-3) in this volume take as their starting point the elements of the Essential Packages presented in the overview chapters of each volume. First, the chapter on intersectoral policy priorities for health includes fiscal and intersectoral policies and assembles a subset of the population policies and applies strict criteria for a low-income setting in order to propose a "highest-priority" essential package. Second, the chapter on packages of care and delivery platforms for universal health coverage (UHC) includes health sector interventions, primarily clinical and public health services, and uses the same approach to propose a highest priority package of interventions and policies that meet similar criteria, provides cost estimates, and describes a pathway to UHC.

Emerging Infectious Diseases from the Global to the Local Perspective

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Author :
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309171105
Total Pages : 134 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Emerging Infectious Diseases from the Global to the Local Perspective by : Institute of Medicine

Download or read book Emerging Infectious Diseases from the Global to the Local Perspective written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2001-03-29 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In October 1999, the Forum on Emerging Infections of the Institute of Medicine convened a two-day workshop titled "International Aspects of Emerging Infections." Key representatives from the international community explored the forces that drive emerging infectious diseases to prominence. Representatives from the Americas, Africa, Asia and the Pacific, and Europe made formal presentations and engaged in panel discussions. Emerging Infectious Diseases from the Global to the Local Perspective includes summaries of the formal presentations and suggests an agenda for future action. The topics addressed cover a wide range of issues, including trends in the incidence of infectious diseases around the world, descriptions of the wide variety of factors that contribute to the emergence and reemergence of these diseases, efforts to coordinate surveillance activities and responses within and across borders, and the resource, research, and international needs that remain to be addressed.

Emerging Infectious Diseases

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Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 0124201091
Total Pages : 420 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (242 download)

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Book Synopsis Emerging Infectious Diseases by : Onder Ergonul

Download or read book Emerging Infectious Diseases written by Onder Ergonul and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2014-05-13 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More than 30 newly emerged microorganisms and related diseases have been discovered in the past 20 years. Since these infections are so new, even infectious diseases experts and clinical microbiologists need more information. This book covers recently emerged infectious diseases based on real cases and provides comprehensive information including different aspects of the infections. Written in a ‘teaching’ style, this book is of interest to every medical specialist and student. Includes more than 35 emerging infection cases based on the following criteria: newly emerged or re-emerged recently acquired significance in clinical practice recently radically changed in case management Offers a balanced synthesis of basic and clinical sciences for each individual case, presenting clinical courses of the cases in parallel with the pathogenesis and detailed microbiological information for each infection Describes the prevalence and incidence of the global issues and current therapeutic approaches Presents the measures for infection control

Emerging Viruses

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Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0195355741
Total Pages : 342 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (953 download)

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Book Synopsis Emerging Viruses by : Stephen S. Morse

Download or read book Emerging Viruses written by Stephen S. Morse and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 1996-08-01 with total page 342 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: New epidemics such as AIDS and "mad cow" disease have dramatized the need to explore the factors underlying rapid viral evolution and emerging viruses. This comprehensive volume is the first to describe this multifaceted new field. It places viral evolution and emergence in a historical context, describes the interaction of viruses with hosts, and details the advances in molecular biology and epidemiology that have provided the tools necessary to track developing viral epidemics and to detect new viruses far more successfully than could be done in the recent past. This unique book also lucidly details case histories and offers practical suggestions for the prevention of future epidemics. The contributors are leading authorities in their disciplines, and were selected both for their expert knowledge and for their ability to define and elucidate the fundamental issues. The book is highly accessible and has been written for a wide audience that includes virologists, public health authorities, medical anthropologists, evolutionary biologists, geneticists, infectious disease specialists, and social scientists interested in medical and health issues.

Emerging Viral Diseases

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Author :
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309314003
Total Pages : 336 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (93 download)

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Book Synopsis Emerging Viral Diseases by : Institute of Medicine

Download or read book Emerging Viral Diseases written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2015-03-19 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the past half century, deadly disease outbreaks caused by novel viruses of animal origin - Nipah virus in Malaysia, Hendra virus in Australia, Hantavirus in the United States, Ebola virus in Africa, along with HIV (human immunodeficiency virus), several influenza subtypes, and the SARS (sudden acute respiratory syndrome) and MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome) coronaviruses - have underscored the urgency of understanding factors influencing viral disease emergence and spread. Emerging Viral Diseases is the summary of a public workshop hosted in March 2014 to examine factors driving the appearance, establishment, and spread of emerging, re-emerging and novel viral diseases; the global health and economic impacts of recently emerging and novel viral diseases in humans; and the scientific and policy approaches to improving domestic and international capacity to detect and respond to global outbreaks of infectious disease. This report is a record of the presentations and discussion of the event.

Public Health Systems and Emerging Infections

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Author :
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 9780309183772
Total Pages : 128 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (837 download)

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Book Synopsis Public Health Systems and Emerging Infections by : Institute of Medicine

Download or read book Public Health Systems and Emerging Infections written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2000-06-08 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Forum on Emerging Infections was created in 1996 in response to a request from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institutes of Health. The goal of the forum is to provide structured opportunities for representatives from academia, industry, professional and interest groups, and government to examine and discuss scientific and policy issues that relate to research, prevention, detection, and management of emerging infectious diseases. A critical part of this mission has been the convening of a series of workshops. Public Health Systems and Emerging Infections summarizes the fourth in a series of five workshops. With a focus on our knowledge and understanding of the role of private and public health sectors in emerging infectious disease surveillance and response, the participants explored the effects of privatization of public health laboratories and the modernization of public health care. The issues discussed included epidemiological investigation, surveillance, communication, coordination, resource allocations, and economic support.

Mathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases

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Author :
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 331940413X
Total Pages : 356 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (194 download)

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Book Synopsis Mathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases by : Gerardo Chowell

Download or read book Mathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases written by Gerardo Chowell and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-07-27 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The contributions by epidemic modeling experts describe how mathematical models and statistical forecasting are created to capture the most important aspects of an emerging epidemic.Readers will discover a broad range of approaches to address questions, such as Can we control Ebola via ring vaccination strategies? How quickly should we detect Ebola cases to ensure epidemic control? What is the likelihood that an Ebola epidemic in West Africa leads to secondary outbreaks in other parts of the world? When does it matter to incorporate the role of disease-induced mortality on epidemic models? What is the role of behavior changes on Ebola dynamics? How can we better understand the control of cholera or Ebola using optimal control theory? How should a population be structured in order to mimic the transmission dynamics of diseases such as chlamydia, Ebola, or cholera? How can we objectively determine the end of an epidemic? How can we use metapopulation models to understand the role of movement restrictions and migration patterns on the spread of infectious diseases? How can we capture the impact of household transmission using compartmental epidemic models? How could behavior-dependent vaccination affect the dynamical outcomes of epidemic models? The derivation and analysis of the mathematical models addressing these questions provides a wide-ranging overview of the new approaches being created to better forecast and mitigate emerging epidemics. This book will be of interest to researchers in the field of mathematical epidemiology, as well as public health workers.

Emerging and Re-Emerging Infectious Diseases , an Issue of Infectious Disease Clinics of North America

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Author :
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 9780323708456
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (84 download)

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Book Synopsis Emerging and Re-Emerging Infectious Diseases , an Issue of Infectious Disease Clinics of North America by : Alimuddin Zumla

Download or read book Emerging and Re-Emerging Infectious Diseases , an Issue of Infectious Disease Clinics of North America written by Alimuddin Zumla and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2019-10-28 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In consultation with Consulting Editor, Dr. Helen Boucher, Drs. Zumla and Hui have assembled an excellent clinical overview of the current priorities in treating emerging and re-emerging infections. A number of landmark events have occurred in the area of epidemic infections.? The frequency and diversity of serious and drug/antibiotic-resistant infections are increasing. New and re-emerging infectious disease outbreaks continue to cause much human suffering and loss of life worldwide.? Current priority infectious diseases concerns that threaten global health security are covered in this issue: Cholera; Typhoid and antibiotic-resistant strains; multi-drug-resistant Tuberculosis; Invasive Meningococcal disease; Invasive Pneumococcal disease; antibiotic-resistant bacterial, viral, and protozoal infections; diphtheria; pandemic influenza; MERS; SARS; Measles; viral haemorrhagic fevers; wild-type Polio virus; Zika; antibiotic-resistant sexually transmitted diseases; drug-resistant Malaria; ARV-resistant HIV; and fungal infections. This issue's clinical review articles, written by authoritative and renowned experts in the area would, have broad appeal, from general internists to respiratory specialists. It should also prove interesting to infectious diseases specialists, health practitioners in the tropics, pulmonologists, internal medicine fellows, family physicians, and health-care policy makers in the west and developing countries. Medical students, postgraduates, and research fellows (both undergraduates and postgraduates) will also find this issue useful and to be a updated reference in the field of respiratory medicine, tropical medicine, and infectious diseases.

Socio-cultural Dimensions of Emerging Infectious Diseases in Africa

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Author :
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030174743
Total Pages : 298 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (31 download)

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Book Synopsis Socio-cultural Dimensions of Emerging Infectious Diseases in Africa by : Godfrey B. Tangwa

Download or read book Socio-cultural Dimensions of Emerging Infectious Diseases in Africa written by Godfrey B. Tangwa and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-08-16 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume examines the most important socio-cultural, political, economic, and policy issues related to emerging infectious diseases in Africa. The volume covers the work of the Global Emerging Pathogens Treatment Consortium (GET); it looks at the challenges of science education and communication in Africa, the global health and governance of pandemics and epidemics, and more. It looks beyond such threats as Ebola, SARS, and Zika to consider the ways communities have sought to contain these and other deadly pathogens. The chapters provide a better understanding of a global health problem from an African perspective, which help clarify to readers why some responses have worked while others have not. Overall, the volume captures the state of the art, science, preparedness, and evolution of a topic important to the health of Africa and the world. It has a broad appeal across disciplines, from medical science and biomedical research, through research ethics, regulation and governance, science and health communication, social sciences, and is also of interest to general readers.

Emerging Epidemics

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118393252
Total Pages : 734 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (183 download)

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Book Synopsis Emerging Epidemics by : Prakash S. Bisen

Download or read book Emerging Epidemics written by Prakash S. Bisen and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-06-14 with total page 734 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A global perspective on the management and prevention of emerging and re-emerging diseases Emerging infectious diseases are newly identified or otherwise previously unknown infections that cause public health challenges. Re-emerging infectious diseases are due to both the reappearance of and an increase in the number of infections from a disease that is known, but which had formerly caused so few infections that it was no longer considered a public health problem. The factors that cause the emergence or re-emergence of a disease are diverse. This book takes a look at the world's emerging and re-emerging diseases. It covers the diagnosis, therapy, prevention, and control of a variety of individual diseases, and examines the social and behavioral issues that could contribute to epidemics. Each chapter focuses on an individual disease and provides scientific background and social history as well as the current basics of infection, epidemiology, and control. Emerging Epidemics: Management and Control offers five topics of coverage: FUNDAMENTALS Epidemics fundamentals Disasters and epidemics Biosafety RE-EMERGING EPIDEMICS Tuberculosis Plague NEWLY EMERGING EPIDEMICS Leptospirosis Dengue Japanese Encephalitis Chikungunya Fever West Nile Virus Chandipura Virus Encephalitis Kyasanur Forest Disease Hantavirus Human, Avian, and Swine Influenza Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Nipah Virus Paragonimiasis Melioidosis POTENTIAL EPIDEMICS Biowarfare and bioterrorism Food contamination and food terrorism Antimicrobial resistance VECTOR CONTROL METHODS Mosquito control Other disease vectors and their control Offering an integrated, worldwide overview of the complexity of the epidemiology of infections, Emerging Epidemics will be a valuable resource for students, physicians, and scientists working in veterinary, medical, and the pharmaceutical sciences.

Epidemics and Society

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Publisher : Yale University Press
ISBN 13 : 0300249144
Total Pages : 603 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Epidemics and Society by : Frank M. Snowden

Download or read book Epidemics and Society written by Frank M. Snowden and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2019-10-22 with total page 603 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A wide-ranging study that illuminates the connection between epidemic diseases and societal change, from the Black Death to Ebola This sweeping exploration of the impact of epidemic diseases looks at how mass infectious outbreaks have shaped society, from the Black Death to today. In a clear and accessible style, Frank M. Snowden reveals the ways that diseases have not only influenced medical science and public health, but also transformed the arts, religion, intellectual history, and warfare. A multidisciplinary and comparative investigation of the medical and social history of the major epidemics, this volume touches on themes such as the evolution of medical therapy, plague literature, poverty, the environment, and mass hysteria. In addition to providing historical perspective on diseases such as smallpox, cholera, and tuberculosis, Snowden examines the fallout from recent epidemics such as HIV/AIDS, SARS, and Ebola and the question of the world’s preparedness for the next generation of diseases.

Epidemics

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Author :
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1136532218
Total Pages : 309 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (365 download)

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Book Synopsis Epidemics by : Sarah Dry

Download or read book Epidemics written by Sarah Dry and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2010-09-23 with total page 309 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent disease events such as SARS, H1N1 and avian influenza, and haemorrhagic fevers have focussed policy and public concern as never before on epidemics and so-called 'emerging infectious diseases'. Understanding and responding to these often unpredictable events have become major challenges for local, national and international bodies. All too often, responses can become restricted by implicit assumptions about who or what is to blame that may not capture the dynamics and uncertainties at play in the multi-scale interactions of people, animals and microbes. As a result, policies intended to forestall epidemics may fail, and may even further threaten health, livelihoods and human rights. The book takes a unique approach by focusing on how different policy-makers, scientists, and local populations construct alternative narratives-accounts of the causes and appropriate responses to outbreaks- about epidemics at the global, national and local level. The contrast between emergency-oriented, top-down responses to what are perceived as potentially global outbreaks and longer-term approaches to diseases, such as AIDS, which may now be considered endemic, is highlighted. Case studies-on avian influenza, SARS, obesity, H1N1 influenza, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and haemorrhagic fevers-cover a broad historical, geographical and biological range. As this book explores, it is often the most vulnerable members of a population-the poor, the social excluded and the already ill-who are likely to suffer most from epidemic diseases. At the same time, they may be less likely to benefit from responses that may be designed from a global perspective that neglects social, ecological and political conditions on the ground. This book aims to bring the focus back to these marginal populations to reveal the often unintended consequences of current policy responses to epidemics. Important implications emerge - for how epidemics are thought about and represented; for how surveillance and response is designed; and for whose knowledge and perspectives should be included. Published in association with the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)

Infectious Disease Surveillance

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118543521
Total Pages : 1281 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (185 download)

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Book Synopsis Infectious Disease Surveillance by : Nkuchia M. M'ikanatha

Download or read book Infectious Disease Surveillance written by Nkuchia M. M'ikanatha and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-03-11 with total page 1281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This fully updated edition of Infectious Disease Surveillance is for frontline public health practitioners, epidemiologists, and clinical microbiologists who are engaged in communicable disease control. It is also a foundational text for trainees in public health, applied epidemiology, postgraduate medicine and nursing programs. The second edition portrays both the conceptual framework and practical aspects of infectious disease surveillance. It is a comprehensive resource designed to improve the tracking of infectious diseases and to serve as a starting point in the development of new surveillance systems. Infectious Disease Surveillance includes over 45 chapters from over 100 contributors, and topics organized into six sections based on major themes. Section One highlights the critical role surveillance plays in public health and it provides an overview of the current International Health Regulations (2005) in addition to successes and challenges in infectious disease eradication. Section Two describes surveillance systems based on logical program areas such as foodborne illnesses, vector-borne diseases, sexually transmitted diseases, viral hepatitis healthcare and transplantation associated infections. Attention is devoted to programs for monitoring unexplained deaths, agents of bioterrorism, mass gatherings, and disease associated with international travel. Sections Three and Four explore the uses of the Internet and wireless technologies to advance infectious disease surveillance in various settings with emphasis on best practices based on deployed systems. They also address molecular laboratory methods, and statistical and geospatial analysis, and evaluation of systems for early epidemic detection. Sections Five and Six discuss legal and ethical considerations, communication strategies and applied epidemiology-training programs. The rest of the chapters offer public-private partnerships, as well lessons from the 2009-2010 H1N1 influenza pandemic and future directions for infectious disease surveillance.

Zika: The Emerging Epidemic

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Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
ISBN 13 : 0393609170
Total Pages : 160 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (936 download)

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Book Synopsis Zika: The Emerging Epidemic by : Donald G. McNeil

Download or read book Zika: The Emerging Epidemic written by Donald G. McNeil and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2016-06-28 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A gripping narrative about the origins and spread of the Zika virus by New York Times science reporter Donald G. McNeil Jr. Until recently, Zika—once considered a mild disease—was hardly a cause for global panic. But as early as August 2015, doctors in northeast Brazil began to notice a trend: many mothers who had recently experienced symptoms of the Zika virus were giving birth to babies with microcephaly, a serious disorder characterized by unusually small heads and brain damage. By early 2016, Zika was making headlines as evidence mounted—and eventually confirmed—that microcephaly is caused by the virus, which can be contracted through mosquito bites or sexually transmitted. The first death on American soil, in February 2016, was confirmed in Puerto Rico in April. The first case of microcephaly in Puerto Rico was confirmed on May 13, 2016. The virus has been known to be transmitted by the Aedes aegypti or Yellow Fever mosquito, but now Aedes albopictus, the Asian Tiger mosquito, has been found to carry it as well, which means it might affect regions as far north as New England and the Great Lakes. Right now, at least 298 million people in the Americas live in areas “conducive to Zika transmission,” according to a recent study. Over the next year, more than 5 million babies will be born. In Zika: The Emerging Epidemic, Donald G. McNeil Jr. sets the facts straight in a fascinating exploration of Zika’s origins, how it’s spreading, the race for a cure, and what we can do to protect ourselves now.

Outbreaks and Epidemics

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Author :
Publisher : Icon Books
ISBN 13 : 1785785648
Total Pages : 130 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (857 download)

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Book Synopsis Outbreaks and Epidemics by : Meera Senthilingam

Download or read book Outbreaks and Epidemics written by Meera Senthilingam and published by Icon Books. This book was released on 2020-03-18 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'A book that couldn't be more timely, providing an accessible introduction to epidemiology.' Kirkus A compelling and disquieting journey through the history and science of epidemics. For centuries mankind has waged war against the infections that, left untreated, would have the power to wipe out communities, or even entire populations. Yet for all our advanced scientific knowledge, only one human disease - smallpox - has ever been eradicated globally. In recent years, outbreaks of Ebola and Zika have provided vivid examples of how difficult it is to contain an infection once it strikes, and the panic that a rapidly spreading epidemic can ignite. But while we chase the diseases we are already aware of, new ones are constantly emerging, like the coronavirus that spread across the world in 2020. At the same time, antimicrobial resistance is harnessing infections that we once knew how to control, enabling them to thrive once more. Meera Senthilingam presents a timely look at humanity's ongoing battle against infection, examining the successes and failures of the past, along with how we are confronting the challenges of today, and our chances of eradicating disease in the future.

Understanding Emerging Epidemics

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Author :
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9781848550810
Total Pages : 386 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (58 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Emerging Epidemics by : Ananya Mukherjea

Download or read book Understanding Emerging Epidemics written by Ananya Mukherjea and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2010-02-25 with total page 386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Focuses on the contributions that social scientists can make to understanding emerging epidemics, their impact, the threats they pose, and their social and political contexts. This book examines emerging epidemics and offers a theoretical analysis of the use of epidemics and epidemiology as frameworks for understanding these phenomena.

The Coming Plague

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Publisher : Farrar, Straus and Giroux
ISBN 13 : 1429953276
Total Pages : 852 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (299 download)

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Book Synopsis The Coming Plague by : Laurie Garrett

Download or read book The Coming Plague written by Laurie Garrett and published by Farrar, Straus and Giroux. This book was released on 1994-10-31 with total page 852 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A New York Times bestseller The definitive account of the infectious diseases threatening humanity by Pulitzer Prize–winning investigative journalist Laurie Garrett "Prodigiously researched . . . A frightening vision of the future and a deeply unsettling one." —Michiko Kakutani, The New York Times After decades spent assuming that the conquest of infectious disease was imminent, people on all continents now find themselves besieged by AIDS, drug-resistant tuberculosis, cholera that defies chlorine water treatment, and exotic viruses that can kill in a matter of hours. Relying on extensive interviews with leading experts in virology, molecular biology, disease ecology, and medicine, as well as field research in sub-Saharan Africa, Western Europe, Central America, and the United States, Laurie Garrett's The Coming Plague takes readers from the savannas of eastern Bolivia to the rain forests of the northern Democratic Republic of the Congo on a harrowing, fifty year journey through the history of our battles with microbes. This book is a work of investigative reportage like no other and a wake-up call to a world that has become complacent in the face of infectious disease—one that offers a sobering and prescient warning about the dangers of ignoring the coming plague.