Efficient Volatility Forecasting With S P 500 Index Futures Contracts

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A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility

Author : Ser-Huang Poon
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470856157
Total Pages : 236 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (78 download)

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Book Synopsis A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility by : Ser-Huang Poon

Download or read book A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility written by Ser-Huang Poon and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-08-19 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial market volatility forecasting is one of today's most important areas of expertise for professionals and academics in investment, option pricing, and financial market regulation. While many books address financial market modelling, no single book is devoted primarily to the exploration of volatility forecasting and the practical use of forecasting models. A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility provides practical guidance on this vital topic through an in-depth examination of a range of popular forecasting models. Details are provided on proven techniques for building volatility models, with guide-lines for actually using them in forecasting applications.

Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets

Author : Stephen Satchell
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0080471420
Total Pages : 428 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (84 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets by : Stephen Satchell

Download or read book Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets written by Stephen Satchell and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2011-02-24 with total page 428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets, Third Edition assumes that the reader has a firm grounding in the key principles and methods of understanding volatility measurement and builds on that knowledge to detail cutting-edge modelling and forecasting techniques. It provides a survey of ways to measure risk and define the different models of volatility and return. Editors John Knight and Stephen Satchell have brought together an impressive array of contributors who present research from their area of specialization related to volatility forecasting. Readers with an understanding of volatility measures and risk management strategies will benefit from this collection of up-to-date chapters on the latest techniques in forecasting volatility. Chapters new to this third edition:* What good is a volatility model? Engle and Patton* Applications for portfolio variety Dan diBartolomeo* A comparison of the properties of realized variance for the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 equity indices Rob Cornish* Volatility modeling and forecasting in finance Xiao and Aydemir* An investigation of the relative performance of GARCH models versus simple rules in forecasting volatility Thomas A. Silvey - Leading thinkers present newest research on volatility forecasting - International authors cover a broad array of subjects related to volatility forecasting - Assumes basic knowledge of volatility, financial mathematics, and modelling

Volatility and Correlation

Author : Riccardo Rebonato
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470091401
Total Pages : 864 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Volatility and Correlation by : Riccardo Rebonato

Download or read book Volatility and Correlation written by Riccardo Rebonato and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-07-08 with total page 864 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School

Implied Volatility Functions

Author : Bernard Dumas
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (258 download)

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Book Synopsis Implied Volatility Functions by : Bernard Dumas

Download or read book Implied Volatility Functions written by Bernard Dumas and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Black and Scholes (1973) implied volatilities tend to be systematically related to the option's exercise price and time to expiration. Derman and Kani (1994), Dupire (1994), and Rubinstein (1994) attribute this behavior to the fact that the Black-Scholes constant volatility assumption is violated in practice. These authors hypothesize that the volatility of the underlying asset's return is a deterministic function of the asset price and time and develop the deterministic volatility function (DVF) option valuation model, which has the potential of fitting the observed cross-section of option prices exactly. Using a sample of S & P 500 index options during the period June 1988 through December 1993, we evaluate the economic significance of the implied deterministic volatility function by examining the predictive and hedging performance of the DV option valuation model. We find that its performance is worse than that of an ad hoc Black-Scholes model with variable implied volatilities.

Financial Economics and Econometrics

Author : Nikiforos T. Laopodis
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000506088
Total Pages : 787 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (5 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Economics and Econometrics by : Nikiforos T. Laopodis

Download or read book Financial Economics and Econometrics written by Nikiforos T. Laopodis and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-12-14 with total page 787 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Economics and Econometrics provides an overview of the core topics in theoretical and empirical finance, with an emphasis on applications and interpreting results. Structured in five parts, the book covers financial data and univariate models; asset returns; interest rates, yields and spreads; volatility and correlation; and corporate finance and policy. Each chapter begins with a theory in financial economics, followed by econometric methodologies which have been used to explore the theory. Next, the chapter presents empirical evidence and discusses seminal papers on the topic. Boxes offer insights on how an idea can be applied to other disciplines such as management, marketing and medicine, showing the relevance of the material beyond finance. Readers are supported with plenty of worked examples and intuitive explanations throughout the book, while key takeaways, ‘test your knowledge’ and ‘test your intuition’ features at the end of each chapter also aid student learning. Digital supplements including PowerPoint slides, computer codes supplements, an Instructor’s Manual and Solutions Manual are available for instructors. This textbook is suitable for upper-level undergraduate and graduate courses on financial economics, financial econometrics, empirical finance and related quantitative areas.

Portfolio Construction, Measurement, and Efficiency

Author : John B. Guerard, Jr.
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319339761
Total Pages : 480 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (193 download)

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Book Synopsis Portfolio Construction, Measurement, and Efficiency by : John B. Guerard, Jr.

Download or read book Portfolio Construction, Measurement, and Efficiency written by John B. Guerard, Jr. and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-09-23 with total page 480 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume, inspired by and dedicated to the work of pioneering investment analyst, Jack Treynor, addresses the issues of portfolio risk and return and how investment portfolios are measured. In a career spanning over fifty years, the primary questions addressed by Jack Treynor were: Is there an observable risk-return trade-off? How can stock selection models be integrated with risk models to enhance client returns? Do managed portfolios earn positive, and statistically significant, excess returns and can mutual fund managers time the market? Since the publication of a pair of seminal Harvard Business Review articles in the mid-1960’s, Jack Treynor has developed thinking that has greatly influenced security selection, portfolio construction and measurement, and market efficiency. Key publications addressed such topics as the Capital Asset Pricing Model and stock selection modeling and integration with risk models. Treynor also served as editor of the Financial Analysts Journal, through which he wrote many columns across a wide spectrum of topics. This volume showcases original essays by leading researchers and practitioners exploring the topics that have interested Treynor while applying the most current methodologies. Such topics include the origins of portfolio theory, market timing, and portfolio construction in equity markets. The result not only reinforces Treynor’s lasting contributions to the field but suggests new areas for research and analysis.

Pricing Derivative Securities

Author : T. W. Epps
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9812700331
Total Pages : 644 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (127 download)

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Book Synopsis Pricing Derivative Securities by : T. W. Epps

Download or read book Pricing Derivative Securities written by T. W. Epps and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2007 with total page 644 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents techniques for valuing derivative securities at a level suitable for practitioners, students in doctoral programs in economics and finance, and those in masters-level programs in financial mathematics and computational finance. It provides the necessary mathematical tools from analysis, probability theory, the theory of stochastic processes, and stochastic calculus, making extensive use of examples. It also covers pricing theory, with emphasis on martingale methods. The chapters are organized around the assumptions made about the dynamics of underlying price processes. Readers begin with simple, discrete-time models that require little mathematical sophistication, proceed to the basic Black-Scholes theory, and then advance to continuous-time models with multiple risk sources. The second edition takes account of the major developments in the field since 2000. New topics include the use of simulation to price American-style derivatives, a new one-step approach to pricing options by inverting characteristic functions, and models that allow jumps in volatility and Markov-driven changes in regime. The new chapter on interest-rate derivatives includes extensive coverage of the LIBOR market model and an introduction to the modeling of credit risk. As a supplement to the text, the book contains an accompanying CD-ROM with user-friendly FORTRAN, C++, and VBA program components.

The Causal Relationship between the S&P 500 and the VIX Index

Author : Florian Auinger
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3658089695
Total Pages : 102 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (58 download)

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Book Synopsis The Causal Relationship between the S&P 500 and the VIX Index by : Florian Auinger

Download or read book The Causal Relationship between the S&P 500 and the VIX Index written by Florian Auinger and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-02-13 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Florian Auinger highlights the core weaknesses and sources of criticism regarding the VIX Index as an indicator for the future development of financial market volatility. Furthermore, it is proven that there is no statistically significant causal relationship between the VIX and the S&P 500. As a consequence, the forecastability is not given in both directions. Obviously, there must be at least one additional variable that has a strong influence on market volatility such as emotions which, according to financial market experts, are considered to play a more and more important role in investment decisions.

Modelling and forecasting stock return volatility and the term structure of interest rates

Author : Michiel de Pooter
Publisher : Rozenberg Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9051709153
Total Pages : 286 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (517 download)

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Book Synopsis Modelling and forecasting stock return volatility and the term structure of interest rates by : Michiel de Pooter

Download or read book Modelling and forecasting stock return volatility and the term structure of interest rates written by Michiel de Pooter and published by Rozenberg Publishers. This book was released on 2007 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of a collection of studies on two areas in quantitative finance: asset return volatility and the term structure of interest rates. The first part of this dissertation offers contributions to the literature on how to test for sudden changes in unconditional volatility, on modelling realized volatility and on the choice of optimal sampling frequencies for intraday returns. The emphasis in the second part of this dissertation is on the term structure of interest rates.

Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction

Author : Stephen J. Taylor
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400839254
Total Pages : 544 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction by : Stephen J. Taylor

Download or read book Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction written by Stephen J. Taylor and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-02-11 with total page 544 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book shows how current and recent market prices convey information about the probability distributions that govern future prices. Moving beyond purely theoretical models, Stephen Taylor applies methods supported by empirical research of equity and foreign exchange markets to show how daily and more frequent asset prices, and the prices of option contracts, can be used to construct and assess predictions about future prices, their volatility, and their probability distributions. Stephen Taylor provides a comprehensive introduction to the dynamic behavior of asset prices, relying on finance theory and statistical evidence. He uses stochastic processes to define mathematical models for price dynamics, but with less mathematics than in alternative texts. The key topics covered include random walk tests, trading rules, ARCH models, stochastic volatility models, high-frequency datasets, and the information that option prices imply about volatility and distributions. Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction is ideal for students of economics, finance, and mathematics who are studying financial econometrics, and will enable researchers to identify and apply appropriate models and methods. It will likewise be a valuable resource for quantitative analysts, fund managers, risk managers, and investors who seek realistic expectations about future asset prices and the risks to which they are exposed.

Statistical Methods in Finance

Author : G. S. Maddala
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 760 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Methods in Finance by : G. S. Maddala

Download or read book Statistical Methods in Finance written by G. S. Maddala and published by . This book was released on 1996-12-11 with total page 760 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive reference work for teaching at graduate level and research in empirical finance. The chapters cover a wide range of statistical and probabilistic methods applied to a variety of financial methods and are written by internationally renowned experts.

Analysing Intraday Implied Volatility for Pricing Currency Options

Author : Thi Le
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030712427
Total Pages : 350 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (37 download)

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Book Synopsis Analysing Intraday Implied Volatility for Pricing Currency Options by : Thi Le

Download or read book Analysing Intraday Implied Volatility for Pricing Currency Options written by Thi Le and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-04-13 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on the impact of high-frequency data in forecasting market volatility and options price. New technologies have created opportunities to obtain better, faster, and more efficient datasets to explore financial market phenomena at the most acceptable data levels. It provides reliable intraday data supporting financial investment decisions across different assets classes and instruments consisting of commodities, derivatives, equities, fixed income and foreign exchange. This book emphasises four key areas, (1) estimating intraday implied volatility using ultra-high frequency (5-minutes frequency) currency options to capture traders' trading behaviour, (2) computing realised volatility based on 5-minute frequency currency price to obtain speculators' speculation attitude, (3) examining the ability of implied volatility to subsume market information through forecasting realised volatility and (4) evaluating the predictive power of implied volatility for pricing currency options. This is a must-read for academics and professionals who want to improve their skills and outcomes in trading options.

The VIX Index and Volatility-Based Global Indexes and Trading Instruments: A Guide to Investment and Trading Features

Author : Matthew T. Moran
Publisher : CFA Institute Research Foundation
ISBN 13 : 1944960961
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (449 download)

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Book Synopsis The VIX Index and Volatility-Based Global Indexes and Trading Instruments: A Guide to Investment and Trading Features by : Matthew T. Moran

Download or read book The VIX Index and Volatility-Based Global Indexes and Trading Instruments: A Guide to Investment and Trading Features written by Matthew T. Moran and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2020-04-28 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the past two decades, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX® Index), a key measure of investor sentiment and 30-day future volatility expectations, has generated much investor attention because of its unique and powerful features. The introduction of VIX futures in 2004, VIX options in 2006, and other volatility-related trading instruments provided traders and investors access to exchange-traded vehicles for taking long and short exposures to expected S&P 500 Index volatility for a particular time frame. Certain VIX-related tradable products may provide benefits when used as tools for tail-risk hedging, diversification, risk management, or alpha generation. Gauges of expected stock market volatility for various regions include the VIX Index (United States), AXVI Index (Australia), VHSI Index (Hong Kong), NVIX Index (India) and VSTOXX Index (Europe). All five of these volatility indexes had negative correlations with their related stock indexes price movements, and all five volatility indexes rose more than 50% in 2008. Although the five volatility indexes are not investable, investors can explore VIX-based benchmark indexes that show the performance of hypothetical investment strategies using VIX futures or options. Before investing in volatility-related products, investors should closely study the pricing, roll cost, and volatility features of the tradable products and read the applicable prospectuses and risk disclosure statements.

Indices, Index Funds And ETFs

Author : Michael I. C. Nwogugu
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 113744701X
Total Pages : 710 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (374 download)

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Book Synopsis Indices, Index Funds And ETFs by : Michael I. C. Nwogugu

Download or read book Indices, Index Funds And ETFs written by Michael I. C. Nwogugu and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-03-09 with total page 710 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Indices, index funds and ETFs are grossly inaccurate and inefficient and affect more than €120 trillion worth of securities, debts and commodities worldwide. This book analyzes the mathematical/statistical biases, misrepresentations, recursiveness, nonlinear risk and homomorphisms inherent in equity, debt, risk-adjusted, options-based, CDS and commodity indices – and by extension, associated index funds and ETFs. The book characterizes the “Popular-Index Ecosystems,” a phenomenon that provides artificial price-support for financial instruments, and can cause systemic risk, financial instability, earnings management and inflation. The book explains why indices and strategic alliances invalidate Third-Generation Prospect Theory (PT3), related approaches and most theories of Intertemporal Asset Pricing. This book introduces three new decision models, and some new types of indices that are more efficient than existing stock/bond indices. The book explains why the Mean-Variance framework, the Put-Call Parity theorem, ICAPM/CAPM, the Sharpe Ratio, Treynor Ratio, Jensen’s Alpha, the Information Ratio, and DEA-Based Performance Measures are wrong. Leveraged/inverse ETFs and synthetic ETFs are misleading and inaccurate and non-legislative methods that reduce index arbitrage and ETF arbitrage are introduced.

Advanced Data Mining and Applications

Author : Xue Li
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540370250
Total Pages : 1130 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (43 download)

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Book Synopsis Advanced Data Mining and Applications by : Xue Li

Download or read book Advanced Data Mining and Applications written by Xue Li and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-07-26 with total page 1130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Here are the proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Advanced Data Mining and Applications, ADMA 2006, held in Xi'an, China, August 2006. The book presents 41 revised full papers and 74 revised short papers together with 4 invited papers. The papers are organized in topical sections on association rules, classification, clustering, novel algorithms, multimedia mining, sequential data mining and time series mining, web mining, biomedical mining, advanced applications, and more.

Essentials of Excel VBA, Python, and R

Author : John Lee
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031142837
Total Pages : 521 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (311 download)

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Book Synopsis Essentials of Excel VBA, Python, and R by : John Lee

Download or read book Essentials of Excel VBA, Python, and R written by John Lee and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-03-23 with total page 521 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This advanced textbook for business statistics teaches, statistical analyses and research methods utilizing business case studies and financial data with the applications of Excel VBA, Python and R. Each chapter engages the reader with sample data drawn from individual stocks, stock indices, options, and futures. Now in its second edition, it has been expanded into two volumes, each of which is devoted to specific parts of the business analytics curriculum. To reflect the current age of data science and machine learning, the used applications have been updated from Minitab and SAS to Python and R, so that readers will be better prepared for the current industry. This second volume is designed for advanced courses in financial derivatives, risk management, and machine learning and financial management. In this volume we extensively use Excel, Python, and R to analyze the above-mentioned topics. It is also a comprehensive reference for active statistical finance scholars and business analysts who are looking to upgrade their toolkits. Readers can look to the first volume for dedicated content on financial statistics, and portfolio analysis.

Financial Risk Forecasting

Author : Jon Danielsson
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119977118
Total Pages : 307 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (199 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Risk Forecasting by : Jon Danielsson

Download or read book Financial Risk Forecasting written by Jon Danielsson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-04-20 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.