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Earnings Predictability And Bias In Analysts Earnings Forecasts
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Book Synopsis Earnings Predictability and Bias in Analysts? Earnings Forecasts by : Somnath Das
Download or read book Earnings Predictability and Bias in Analysts? Earnings Forecasts written by Somnath Das and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines cross-sectional differences in the optimistic behavior of financial analysts. Specifically, we investigate whether the predictive accuracy of past information (e.g., time-series of earnings, past returns, etc.) is associated with the magnitude of the bias in analysts' earnings forecasts. We posit that there is higher demand for non-public information for firms whose earnings are difficult to accurately predict than for firms whose earnings can be accurately forecasted using public information. Assuming that optimism facilitates access to management's non-public information, we hypothesize that analysts will issue more optimistic forecasts for low predictability firms than for high predictability firms. Our results support this hypothesis.
Book Synopsis Understanding Analysts' Earnings Expectations by : Marco Aiolfi
Download or read book Understanding Analysts' Earnings Expectations written by Marco Aiolfi and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations by : Sundaresh Ramnath
Download or read book Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations written by Sundaresh Ramnath and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2008 with total page 125 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations reviews research related to the role of financial analysts in the allocation of resources in capital markets. The authors provide an organized look at the literature, with particular attention to important questions that remain open for further research. They focus research related to analysts' decision processes and the usefulness of their forecasts and stock recommendations. Some of the major surveys were published in the early 1990's and since then no less than 250 papers related to financial analysts have appeared in the nine major research journals that we used to launch our review of the literature. The research has evolved from descriptions of the statistical properties of analysts' forecasts to investigations of the incentives and decision processes that give rise to those properties. However, in spite of this broader focus, much of analysts' decision processes and the market's mechanism of drawing a useful consensus from the combination of individual analysts' decisions remain hidden in a black box. What do we know about the relevant valuation metrics and the mechanism by which analysts and investors translate forecasts into present equity values? What do we know about the heuristics relied upon by analysts and the market and the appropriateness of their use? Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations examines these and other questions and concludes by highlighting area for future research.
Book Synopsis An Empirical Investigation of Bias in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts by : Hakan Saraoglu
Download or read book An Empirical Investigation of Bias in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts written by Hakan Saraoglu and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 318 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Managerial Behavior and the Bias in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts by : Lawrence D. Brown
Download or read book Managerial Behavior and the Bias in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts written by Lawrence D. Brown and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managerial behavior differs considerably when managers report quarterly profits versus losses. When they report profits, managers seek to just meet or slightly beat analyst estimates. When they report losses, managers do not attempt to meet or slightly beat analyst estimates. Instead, managers often do not forewarn analysts of impending losses, and the analyst's signed error is likely to be negative and extreme (i.e., a measured optimistic bias). Brown (1997 Financial Analysts Journal) shows that the optimistic bias in analyst earnings forecasts has been mitigated over time, and that it is less pronounced for larger firms and firms followed by many analysts. In the present study, I offer three explanations for these temporal and cross-sectional phenomena. First, the frequency of profits versus losses may differ temporally and/or cross-sectionally. Since an optimistic bias in analyst forecasts is less likely to occur when firms report profits, an optimistic bias is less likely to be observed in samples possessing a relatively greater frequency of profits. Second, the tendency to report profits that just meet or slightly beat analyst estimates may differ temporally and/or cross-sectionally. A greater tendency to 'manage profits' (and analyst estimates) in this manner reduces the measured optimistic bias in analyst forecasts. Third, the tendency to forewarn analysts of impending losses may differ temporally and/or cross-sectionally. A greater tendency to 'manage losses' in this manner also reduces the measured optimistic bias in analyst forecasts. I provide the following temporal evidence. The optimistic bias in analyst forecasts pertains to both the entire sample and the losses sub-sample. In contrast, a pessimistic bias exists for the 85.3% of the sample that consists of reported profits. The temporal decrease in the optimistic bias documented by Brown (1997) pertains to both losses and profits. Analysts have gotten better at predicting the sign of a loss (i.e., they are much more likely to predict that a loss will occur than they used to), and they have reduced the number of extreme negative errors they make by two-thirds. Managers are much more likely to report profits that exactly meet or slightly beat analyst estimates than they used to. In contrast, they are less likely to report profits that fall a little short of analyst estimates than they used to. I conclude that the temporal reduction in optimistic bias is attributable to an increased tendency to manage both profits and losses. I find no evidence that there exists a temporal change in the profits-losses mix (using the I/B/E/S definition of reported quarterly profits and losses). I document the following cross-sectional evidence. The principle reason that larger firms have relatively less optimistic bias is that they are far less likely to report losses. A secondary reason that larger firms have relatively less optimistic bias is that their managers are relatively more likely to report profits that slightly beat analyst estimates. The principle reason that firms followed by more analysts have relatively less optimistic bias is that they are far less likely to report losses. A secondary reason that firms followed by more analysts have relatively less optimistic bias is that their managers are relatively more likely to report profits that exactly meet analyst estimates or beat them by one penny. I find no evidence that managers of larger firms or firms followed by more analysts are relatively more likely to forewarn analysts of impending losses. I conclude that cross-sectional differences in bias arise primarily from differential 'loss frequencies,' and secondarily from differential 'profits management.' The paper discusses implications of the results for studies of analysts forecast bias, earnings management, and capital markets. It concludes with caveats and directions for future research.
Book Synopsis Bias in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts by : Seung-Woog (Austin) Kwag
Download or read book Bias in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts written by Seung-Woog (Austin) Kwag and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If either economic incentives or psychological phenomena cause the bias in analysts' forecasts to persist long enough, it would be potentially discoverable and exploitable by investors. quot;Exploitationquot; in this context implies that investors, through examination of historical forecasting performance, can more or less reliably estimate the direction and extent of bias, and impute unbiased estimates for themselves, given analysts' forecasts. The absence of persistence in forecast errors would suggest that analysts' own behavior ultimately quot;self-correctsquot; within a time frame that eliminates the possibility that the patterns could be exploited by investors. We use two look-back methods that capture salient features of analysts' past forecasting behavior to form quintile portfolios that describe the range of analysts' forecasting behavior. Parametric and nonparametric tests are performed to determine whether the two portfolio formation methods provide predictive power with respect to subsequent forecast errors. The findings support a conclusion that analysts' behaviors in both optimistic and pessimistic extremes do not entirely self-correct, leaving open the possibility that investors may find historical forecast errors useful in making inferences about current forecasts.
Book Synopsis Analysts Earnings Forecasts by : O. Douglas Moses
Download or read book Analysts Earnings Forecasts written by O. Douglas Moses and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study investigates four properties of earnings forecasts made by financial analysts to determine if systematic differences in these properties exists failing and healthy firms. The four properties are: The level of forecasts, forecast error, forecast bias, and forecast dispersion. Measures reflecting the four properties are used in models to distinguish failing and healthy firms and predict future bankruptcy. Results indicate that measures developed from analysts forecasts of future earnings can be exploited to distinguish failing from healthy firms.
Book Synopsis Bias in European Analysts' Earnings Forecasts by : Stan Beckers
Download or read book Bias in European Analysts' Earnings Forecasts written by Stan Beckers and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting company earnings is a difficult and hazardous task. In an efficient market where analysts learn from past mistakes, there should be no persistent and systematic biases in consensus earnings accuracy. Previous research has already established how some (single) individual-company characteristics systematically influence forecast accuracy. So far, however, the effect on consensus earnings biases of a company's sector and country affiliation combined with a range of other fundamental characteristics has remained largely unexplored. Using data for 1993-2002, this article disentangles and quantifies for a broad universe of European stocks how the number of analysts following a stock, the dispersion of their forecasts, the volatility of earnings, the sector and country classification of the covered company, and its market capitalization influence the accuracy of the consensus earnings forecast.
Book Synopsis Analysts' Conflict of Interest and Biases in Earnings Forecasts by : Louis Kuo Chi Chan
Download or read book Analysts' Conflict of Interest and Biases in Earnings Forecasts written by Louis Kuo Chi Chan and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Analysts' earnings forecasts are influenced by their desire to win investment banking clients. We hypothesize that the equity bull market of the 1990s, along with the boom in investment banking business, exacerbated analysts' conflict of interest and their incentives to adjust strategically forecasts to avoid earnings disappointments. We document shifts in the distribution of earnings surprises, the market's response to surprises and forecast revisions, and in the predictability of non-negative surprises. Further confirmation is based on subsamples where conflicts of interest are more pronounced, including growth stocks and stocks with consecutive non-negative surprises; however shifts are less notable in international markets
Book Synopsis Enhancing Earnings Predictability Using Individual Analyst Forecasts by : Martin Herzberg
Download or read book Enhancing Earnings Predictability Using Individual Analyst Forecasts written by Martin Herzberg and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is considerable evidence suggesting that stock election based on firms' anticipated earnings can generate excess returns. The earnings predictor model (EPM) introduced in this article uses individual analyst forecasts to generate an earnings forecast that is more accurate than the consensus in over 1,200 (non-independent) back tests using three alternative metrics. The model determines those firm-specific components that can best generate superior earnings forecasts for each company at each point in time. The EPM is shown to have been very effective for stock selection purposes, generating a total annualized Q1 minus annualized Q5 return differential of 15.57% over the period of the study.
Book Synopsis Biased Forecasts or Biased Earnings? The Role of Reported Earnings in Explaining Apparent Bias and Over/Underreaction in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts by : Jeffery S. Abarbanell
Download or read book Biased Forecasts or Biased Earnings? The Role of Reported Earnings in Explaining Apparent Bias and Over/Underreaction in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts written by Jeffery S. Abarbanell and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We demonstrate the role of three empirical properties of cross-sectional distributions of analysts' forecast errors in generating evidence pertinent to three important and heretofore separately analyzed phenomena studied in the analyst earnings forecast literature: purported bias (intentional or unintentional) in analysts' earnings forecasts, forecaster over/underreaction to information in prior realizations of economic variables, and positive serial correlation in analysts' forecast errors. The empirical properties of interest include: the existence of two statistically influential asymmetries found in the tail and the middle of typical forecast error distributions, the fact that a relatively small number of observations comprise these asymmetries and, the unusual character of the reported earnings benchmark used in the calculation of the forecast errors that fall into the two asymmetries that is associated with firm recognition of unexpected accruals. We discuss competing explanations for the presence of these properties of forecast error distributions and their implications for conclusions about analyst forecast rationality that are pertinent to researchers, regulators, and investors concerned with the incentives and judgments of analysts.Previously titled quot;Biased Forecasts or Biased Earnings? The Role of Earnings Management in Explaining Apparent Optimism and Inefficiency in Analysts' Earnings Forecastsquot.
Book Synopsis Analysts' Conflict of Interest and Biases in Earnings Forecasts by : Louis K.C. Chan
Download or read book Analysts' Conflict of Interest and Biases in Earnings Forecasts written by Louis K.C. Chan and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Analysts' earnings forecasts are influenced by their desire to win investment banking clients. We hypothesize that the equity bull market of the 1990s, along with the boom in investment banking business, exacerbated analysts' conflict of interest and their incentives to adjust strategically forecasts to avoid earnings disappointments. We document shifts in the distribution of earnings surprises, the market's response to surprises and forecast revisions, and in the predictability of non-negative surprises. Further confirmation is based on subsamples where conflicts of interest are more pronounced, including growth stocks and stocks with consecutive non-negative surprises; however shifts are less notable in international markets.
Book Synopsis Bias in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts as an Explanation for the Long-Run Underperformance of Stocks Following Equity Offerings by : Ashiq Ali
Download or read book Bias in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts as an Explanation for the Long-Run Underperformance of Stocks Following Equity Offerings written by Ashiq Ali and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For firms conducting initial or seasoned equity offerings, recent studies document that their stock returns are lower than those of non-issuers for about five years following the issue, and this underperformance is greater for small issuers. This study shows that analysts' earnings forecasts have greater optimistic bias for issuers than for non-issuers during the five year period. Moreover, the incremental optimistic bias is greater for small issuers. This result is consistent with the Loughran and Ritter (1995) conjecture that one of the reasons for the long-run underperformance of issuers' stocks is optimistic bias in the market's expectations of these firms' earnings.
Book Synopsis Accuracy, Bias, and Dispersion in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: the Case of Cross-listed Foreign Firms by : Somnath Das (Saudagaran, Shahrokh M.)
Download or read book Accuracy, Bias, and Dispersion in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: the Case of Cross-listed Foreign Firms written by Somnath Das (Saudagaran, Shahrokh M.) and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Optimism and Accuracy in Forecasts of Financial Analysts by : Susan Marie Young
Download or read book Optimism and Accuracy in Forecasts of Financial Analysts written by Susan Marie Young and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Predictable Errors in Financial Analysts' Annual Earnings Forecasts and the Evaluation of Earnings Forecast-based Securities Returns Anomalies by : Le Xu
Download or read book Predictable Errors in Financial Analysts' Annual Earnings Forecasts and the Evaluation of Earnings Forecast-based Securities Returns Anomalies written by Le Xu and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Earnings Volatility and Earnings Predictability by : Ilia D. Dichev
Download or read book Earnings Volatility and Earnings Predictability written by Ilia D. Dichev and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Survey evidence indicates widely held managerial beliefs that earnings volatility is negatively related to earnings predictability. In addition, existing research suggests that earnings volatility is determined by economic and accounting factors, and both of these factors reduce earnings predictability. We find that the consideration of earnings volatility brings substantial improvements in the prediction of both short and long-term earnings. Conditioning on volatility information also allows one to identify systematic errors in analyst forecasts, which implies that analysts do not fully understand the implications of earnings volatility for earnings predictability.