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Earnings Management And Forecast Accuracy
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Book Synopsis Earnings Management and Forecast Accuracy by : Norashikin Ismail
Download or read book Earnings Management and Forecast Accuracy written by Norashikin Ismail and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis explores the link between earnings management and forecast accuracy in the context of Malaysian IPO's following a revision of the regulation on earnings forecast disclosure made in 1996. The study involves three different stages. The first stage examines the accuracy of earnings forecasts contained in the IPO prospectuses of Malaysian companies seeking listing from 1996 to December 2002. The second stage of study provides evidence of positive discretionary accrual in financial statements of IPO issuers in the year of IPO, and in the 3 year period following the IPO. Finally, a correlation study examines the link between earnings management and forecast error and other variables representing unexpected change in economic condition and company specific characteristics. The results from the first stage of study indicate that Malaysian IPO companies on average have a negative forecast error, indicating positive bias in their forecast. Multivariate results indicate that regulation of earnings forecast disclosure has no significant impact on accuracy but that economic condition, management optimism, and auditor reputation have. The second stage, studying earnings management on a sample of IPO 1996,1998 and 2000 regulated companies, provides evidence consistent with the prediction that managers of Malaysian IPO companies manage earnings upwards in the year of forecast issuance, or in the year the company make their forecasts. The study also provides evidence that managers continue to manage earnings during the period after listing, so long as there is continuing regulatory scrutiny. The findings of the final stage of study provide evidence of a significant association between earnings management and the relative size and direction of forecast error, after controlling for other expected associations. The regression results reveal that earnings management of Malaysian IPO companies is associated with forecast error, the changes in economic condition represented by a recovery and crisis period, company age and management ownership. The study makes a contribution in terms of understanding the nature of earnings management at the time of an IPO and in particular providing empirical evidence on the link between the forecast error and the extent of earnings management. The result shows that managers appear to manage earnings upwards significantly during the economic crisis and recovery period in order to match or come closer to the forecast made in the prospectus. In a highly concentrated ownership, the actions of IPO managers appear to be contrary to the assumption of agency theory. It is speculated that managers of IPO companies are managing their earnings upwards and reporting towards meeting their forecasts in order to manage their legitimacy and to establish their company's good reputation. This is because, as newly listed companies, they are under close market scrutiny and are under great pressure to meet the projections made to investors.
Book Synopsis New Determinants of Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Accuracy by : Tanja Klettke
Download or read book New Determinants of Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Accuracy written by Tanja Klettke and published by Springer Science & Business. This book was released on 2014-04-28 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial analysts provide information in their research reports and thereby help forming expectations of a firm’s future business performance. Thus, it is essential to recognize analysts who provide the most precise forecasts and the accounting literature identifies characteristics that help finding the most accurate analysts. Tanja Klettke detects new relationships and identifies two new determinants of earnings forecast accuracy. These new determinants are an analyst’s “general forecast effort” and the “number of supplementary forecasts”. Within two comprehensive empirical investigations she proves these measures’ power to explain accuracy differences. Tanja Klettke’s research helps investors and researchers to identify more accurate earnings forecasts.
Book Synopsis Real Earnings Management and the Properties of Analysts' Forecasts by : Lisa Eiler
Download or read book Real Earnings Management and the Properties of Analysts' Forecasts written by Lisa Eiler and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine how analysts' earnings forecast properties vary when accounting information is more difficult to process. Specifically, we investigate whether analysts' forecast properties are associated with traditional real earnings management (REM) measures. We hypothesize and find that analysts' forecast errors and dispersion are greater for REM firms. Next, we investigate cross-sectional differences among REM firms based on the presence of management guidance. We find some evidence that management guidance reduces the association between REM and analysts' forecast error, and strong evidence that management guidance reduces the association between REM and dispersion. Finally, we investigate cross-sectional differences among REM firms based on their earnings management incentives. We find that firms with low earnings management incentives drive the association between REM and analysts' forecast error and dispersion. This result suggests earnings are most difficult to forecast for REM firms lacking obvious financial reporting objectives. Our results are consistent across numerous proxies for REM. To the best of our knowledge, our paper is the first to provide robust evidence of a relation between REM and the properties of analysts' forecasts.
Book Synopsis Understanding Analysts' Reactions to Earnings Management by : Yuyan Guan
Download or read book Understanding Analysts' Reactions to Earnings Management written by Yuyan Guan and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis examines the determinants of analysts' reactions to firms' earnings management. I present a model showing that analysts revise their forecasts according to their forecast errors revealed by earnings announcements and reporting biases embedded in reported earnings. The model further demonstrates that the relationship between forecast revisions and reporting biases can be affected by analysts' forecasting ability, the inherent uncertainty of whether reporting biases have occurred, as well as analysts' incentives. To empirically test the model's prediction regarding analysts' forecasting ability, I use analysts' firm-specific experience, size of their brokerage firm, and the number of industries they follow as proxies. Consistent with the model's prediction, I provide evidence showing that well-experienced analysts adjust more for earnings management while analysts following a greater number of industries adjust less for earnings management. Sensitivity analysis using analyst's historical firm-specific forecast accuracy as an alternative measure of forecasting ability further supports the hypothesis that analysts with better forecasting ability adjust more for earnings management. Moreover, analysts adjust less for earnings management when the inherent uncertainty of the reporting bias is greater. Specifically, analysts adjust less for earnings management when: (1) the past volatility of discretionary accruals is high; and (2) the firm has a marked propensity to smooth earnings. There is little evidence that affiliated analysts adjust less for earnings management than unaffiliated analysts. However, analysts adjust more for earnings management in the post-Reg FD period than in the pre-Reg FD period, which is consistent with Regulation FD achieving its objective of strengthening analysts' incentives to issue unbiased forecasts.
Book Synopsis The Effect of Earnings Management Constraints on Management Earnings Forecasts by : Tze Yuan (David) Lau
Download or read book The Effect of Earnings Management Constraints on Management Earnings Forecasts written by Tze Yuan (David) Lau and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 430 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis examines the role of earnings management constraints, as imposed by firms having higher-quality auditors and lower accounting flexibility at the beginning of the year, in managers’ ability to report less negative earnings surprises from their earnings forecasts. Earnings surprises from management earnings forecasts arise when firms’ realised earnings exceed or fall below the expected earnings of firms’ managers. This thesis argues that managers can report less negative earnings surprises through the use of two techniques: (1) upward earnings management (so that the realised earnings exceed the expected earnings); and (2) downward earnings expectation adjustments (so that the expected earnings fall below the realised earnings). Managers’ incentives to choose upward earnings management over downward earnings expectation adjustments decrease with the degree of earnings management constraints at year t-1. This thesis hypothesises that (1) ceteris paribus, firms with higher-quality auditors at year t-1 are more likely to use downward earnings expectation adjustments in order to report less negative earnings surprises for year t; and (2) ceteris paribus, firms with lower accounting flexibility at year t-1 are more likely to use downward earnings expectation adjustments in order to report less negative earnings surprises for year t. These hypotheses are tested in a unique economy, Japan, where nearly all firms’ managers provide earnings forecasts. Univariate and multivariate analyses of this thesis provide evidence that supports the following conclusions. First, managers of firms with higher-quality auditors and lower accounting flexibility at the beginning of the year are associated with less negative earnings surprises at the end of the year. Second, managers of firms with higher-quality auditors at the beginning of the year use downward earnings expectation adjustments, although the magnitude of these adjustments is lower than the adjustments by firms with lower-quality auditors at the beginning of the year. Third, managers of firms with lower accounting flexibility at the beginning of the year do not consistently use downward earnings expectation adjustments throughout the year to report less negative earnings surprises. Specifically, these firms are more likely to use downward earnings expectation adjustments at the second quarter of the year. Additional tests are conducted to analyse whether the main results are sensitive to alternative specifications of the model. The scope of these tests also extends to other quality aspects of management earnings forecasts and auditing, namely, forecast accuracy and auditor switching, respectively. Overall, these additional analyses indicate that the main results hold after the following empirical considerations are made: (1) self-selection bias; (2) alternative deflators for the response variables; and (3) alternative measures of audit quality and accounting flexibility. The analysis of forecast accuracy reveals that managers of firms with higher-quality auditors at the beginning of the year are more likely to issue accurate earnings forecasts. However, managers of firms with lower accounting flexibility at the beginning of the year are less likely to issue accurate earnings forecasts. The analysis of auditor switches shows firms that switch from lower-quality auditors to higher-quality auditors at the beginning of the year are more likely to report less negative earnings surprises.
Book Synopsis Determinants of Earnings Forecast Error, Earnings Forecast Revision and Earnings Forecast Accuracy by : Sebastian Gell
Download or read book Determinants of Earnings Forecast Error, Earnings Forecast Revision and Earnings Forecast Accuracy written by Sebastian Gell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-03-26 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Earnings forecasts are ubiquitous in today’s financial markets. They are essential indicators of future firm performance and a starting point for firm valuation. Extremely inaccurate and overoptimistic forecasts during the most recent financial crisis have raised serious doubts regarding the reliability of such forecasts. This thesis therefore investigates new determinants of forecast errors and accuracy. In addition, new determinants of forecast revisions are examined. More specifically, the thesis answers the following questions: 1) How do analyst incentives lead to forecast errors? 2) How do changes in analyst incentives lead to forecast revisions?, and 3) What factors drive differences in forecast accuracy?
Book Synopsis Do Analysts Sacrifice Forecast Accuracy for Informativeness? by : Henock Louis
Download or read book Do Analysts Sacrifice Forecast Accuracy for Informativeness? written by Henock Louis and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze whether analysts sacrifice forecast accuracy for informativeness by examining: (1) the association between analysts' deviations from management guidance and earnings management; (2) the effect of the deviations on analyst forecast accuracy; and (3) the effect of the deviations on prices. The evidence indicates that analysts apparently deviate from management guidance to correct for perceived earnings management. Although the deviations reduce the analysts' forecast accuracy, they improve the informativeness of their earnings estimates. More specifically, they bring the analysts' estimates closer to the true (unmanaged) earnings number and reduce mispricing. An implicit assumption in the literature is that more accurate analyst forecasts (i.e., earnings estimates that are closer to the actual reported earnings) are better for investors, and that analysts' primary objective is to forecast the reported (managed) earnings number accurately. Our analysis suggests that this is not necessarily the case and that an inaccurate forecast can actually be more informative than an accurate one. Prior studies on analyst deviations from management guidance focus on analysts' incentives to provide earnings estimates that managers can beat. These studies implicitly assume that analysts side with management against the interests of their clients. Our analysis indicates that analysts could also deviate from management guidance to provide useful valuation information to their clients.
Book Synopsis Whisper Forecasts and Earnings Management by : Arnoldo Jose Rodriguez
Download or read book Whisper Forecasts and Earnings Management written by Arnoldo Jose Rodriguez and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis An Empirical Test of Learning in Management Earnings Forecasts by : Yuan Shi (Ph.D.)
Download or read book An Empirical Test of Learning in Management Earnings Forecasts written by Yuan Shi (Ph.D.) and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: My dissertation examines whether managers issuing earnings guidance learn from the forecast errors in prior earnings guidance issued by them. Using data on quarterly earnings forecasts issued by managers during the period from 2001 to 2016, I find results that are consistent with managers learning from their previous forecast errors to improve their forecast accuracy. However, the intensity of the managers' reactions to previous forecast errors is asymmetric. Consistent with prior literature that emphasizes the importance of meeting or beating forecasts for managers, certain managers that miss their own forecasts tend to be conservative enough in their future forecasts to avoid missing their own forecasts again. However, as expected, when the managers have met or beaten their previous forecasts, they have a smaller forecast error, but they still beat their previous forecasts. Additional analysis suggests that these effects persist even after controlling for potential earnings management to achieve these earnings targets. I also examine the impact of managerial attributes and board governance characteristics on the learning process. My analysis suggests that while CEO overconfidence and CFO overconfidence appear to impede learning, Managerial ability, CEO duality and outside CEO(s) as director(s) strengthen the learning effect. My findings shed light on an important aspect of management guidance and may have implications for users of this information such as financial analysts and investors.
Book Synopsis Introduction to Earnings Management by : Malek El Diri
Download or read book Introduction to Earnings Management written by Malek El Diri and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-08-20 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides researchers and scholars with a comprehensive and up-to-date analysis of earnings management theory and literature. While it raises new questions for future research, the book can be also helpful to other parties who rely on financial reporting in making decisions like regulators, policy makers, shareholders, investors, and gatekeepers e.g., auditors and analysts. The book summarizes the existing literature and provides insight into new areas of research such as the differences between earnings management, fraud, earnings quality, impression management, and expectation management; the trade-off between earnings management activities; the special measures of earnings management; and the classification of earnings management motives based on a comprehensive theoretical framework.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Earnings Per Share by : Gerardine DeSanctis
Download or read book Forecasting Earnings Per Share written by Gerardine DeSanctis and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis An Empirical Evaluation of the Stock Price Reaction to Errors in Management Forecasts of Earnings Per Share by : Russell Theodore Gingras
Download or read book An Empirical Evaluation of the Stock Price Reaction to Errors in Management Forecasts of Earnings Per Share written by Russell Theodore Gingras and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Prior Forecasting Accuracy and Investor Reaction to Management Earnings Forecasts by : Amy P. Hutton
Download or read book Prior Forecasting Accuracy and Investor Reaction to Management Earnings Forecasts written by Amy P. Hutton and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the properties of firms' forecasting records and whether the accuracy of their prior earnings forecasts affects investor response to their subsequent forecasts. Within the context of a Bayesian model of investor learning, we find that the stock price response to management forecast news is increasing in prior forecast accuracy and also in the length of a firm's forecasting record. Further, we document that investors are more responsive to extreme good and bad news forecasts when a firm has an established forecasting record. Overall, these results suggest that a firm's prior forecasting behavior allows it to establish a forecasting reputation.
Book Synopsis Earnings per share forecast accuracy and the use of two discretionary accounting variables : a study of possible income manipulation by : Clayton Allen Hock
Download or read book Earnings per share forecast accuracy and the use of two discretionary accounting variables : a study of possible income manipulation written by Clayton Allen Hock and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Three Essays on Analyst Earnings Forecast by : Wenjuan Xie
Download or read book Three Essays on Analyst Earnings Forecast written by Wenjuan Xie and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Advances in Business and Management Forecasting by : Kenneth D. Lawrence
Download or read book Advances in Business and Management Forecasting written by Kenneth D. Lawrence and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2011-11-16 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Intends to present advanced studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing, and strategic decision making. This title includes topics such as: sales and marketing, forecasting, new product forecasting, judgmentally-based forecasting, the application of surveys to forecasting, and sales response models.
Book Synopsis The Joint Effect of Management's Prior Forecast Accuracy and the Form of its Financial Forecasts on Investor Judgment by : D. Eric Hirst
Download or read book The Joint Effect of Management's Prior Forecast Accuracy and the Form of its Financial Forecasts on Investor Judgment written by D. Eric Hirst and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine how investor reaction to management earnings forecasts is a joint function of the form of the forecast and management's perceived credibility. In a laboratory experiment involving 126 individual investors, we compare investors' earnings predictions and their confidence therein after receiving point and closed range forecasts issued by managements whose previous forecasting accuracy is known to be either high or low. We used point and range forecasts, because they differ in the degree to which they communicate management's uncertainty about the future. We use management's prior forecasting accuracy as a measure of management's credibility, because prior research has documented the importance of this factor when considering the usefulness of management's voluntary forecasts.Our results show that, as expected, investors' earnings predictions are responsive to management's forecasts. However, as we hypothesized, forecast form did not influence investors' earnings estimates. In contrast, investors' confidence in their earnings predictions was influenced by the form of management's forecasts, but this effect emerged only when management was previously accurate in their forecasting. A similar interactive pattern was found in the dispersion of investors' predictions about the company's future earnings. Finally, consistent with the hypothesis that confidence is an important determinant of investor behavior, we find that investors' judgments of future stock price appreciation are a positive function of both unexpected earnings and the change in their confidence.Our study extends the literature on management forecasts by empirically testing the joint influence of management's credibility (i.e., forecasting accuracy) and forecast form. The prior literature has argued that both factors should be important, but has not delineated whether or how these two factors might interact. We present a theoretical framework that indicates when both factors should influence investor judgment.
