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Downside Risk And Stock Returns
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Book Synopsis Downside Risk and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns by : Andrin Schett
Download or read book Downside Risk and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns written by Andrin Schett and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis investigates the relationship between downside risk and stock returns. In an economy with agents that are more concerned about downside losses than upside gains (downside risk averse investors), stocks that covary strongly with systematic risk factors in adverse states are expected to earn higher returns. The premium on downside sensitive stocks reflects a compensation for the risk of high negative returns in unfavorable states. Analyzing different risk factors that are proposed in the literature to systematically affect stock returns, I find strong evidence for a downside risk-return relationship for three factors: the returns on the market portfolio, the liquidity innovation factor and a factor reflecting unanticipated changes in the risk premium. I estimate that the premium for bearing market downside risk is approximately 4-6%, for liquidity downside risk 3-5% and 2-3% for stocks that covary strongly with unanticipated (negative) changes in the risk premium.
Book Synopsis Preparing for the Worst by : Hrishikesh (Rick) D. Vinod
Download or read book Preparing for the Worst written by Hrishikesh (Rick) D. Vinod and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-11-11 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timely approach to downside risk and its role in stock market investments When dealing with the topic of risk analysis, most books on investments treat downside and upside risk equally. Preparing for the Worst takes an entirely novel approach by focusing on downside risk and explaining how to incorporate it into investment decisions. Highlighting this asymmetry of the stock market, the authors describe how existing theories miss the downside and follow with explanations of how it can be included. Various techniques for calculating downside risk are demonstrated. This book presents the latest ideas in the field from the ground up, making the discussion accessible to mathematicians and statisticians interested in applications in finance, as well as to finance professionals who may not have a mathematical background. An invaluable resource for anyone wishing to explore the critical issues of finance, portfolio management, and securities pricing, this book: Incorporates Value at Risk into the theoretical discussion Uses many examples to illustrate downside risk in U.S., international, and emerging market investments Addresses downside risk arising from fraud and corruption Includes step-by-step instructions on how to implement the methods introduced in this book Offers advice on how to avoid pitfalls in calculations and computer programming Provides software use information and tips
Book Synopsis Managing Downside Risk in Financial Markets by : Frank A. Sortino
Download or read book Managing Downside Risk in Financial Markets written by Frank A. Sortino and published by Butterworth-Heinemann. This book was released on 2001-10-02 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Quantitative methods have revolutionized the area of trading, regulation, risk management, portfolio construction, asset pricing and treasury activities, and governmental activity such as central banking to name but some of the applications. Downside-risk, as a quantitative method, is an accurate measurement of investment risk, because it captures the risk of not accomplishing the investor's goal. 'Downside Risk in Financial Markets' demonstrates how downside-risk can produce better results in performance measurement and asset allocation than variance modelling. Theory, as well as the practical issues involved in its implementation, is covered and the arguments put forward emphatically show the superiority of downside risk models to variance models in terms of risk measurement and decision making. Variance considers all uncertainty to be risky. Downside-risk only considers returns below that needed to accomplish the investor's goal, to be risky. Risk is one of the biggest issues facing the financial markets today. 'Downside Risk in Financial Markets' outlines the major issues for Investment Managers and focuses on "downside-risk" as a key activity in managing risk in investment/portfolio management. Managing risk is now THE paramount topic within the financial sector and recurring losses through the 1990s has shocked financial institutions into placing much greater emphasis on risk management and control. Free Software Enclosed To help you implement the knowledge you will gain from reading this book, a CD is enclosed that contains free software programs that were previously only available to institutional investors under special licensing agreement to The pension Research Institute. This is our contribution to the advancement of professionalism in portfolio management. The Forsey-Sortino model is an executable program that: 1. Runs on any PC without the need of any additional software. 2. Uses the bootstrap procedure developed by Dr. Bradley Effron at Stanford University to uncover what could have happened, instead of relying only on what did happen in the past. This is the best procedure we know of for describing the nature of uncertainty in financial markets. 3. Fits a three parameter lognormal distribution to the bootstrapped data to allow downside risk to be calculated from a continuous distribution. This improves the efficacy of the downside risk estimates. 4. Calculates upside potential and downside risk from monthly returns on any portfolio manager. 5. Calculates upside potential and downside risk from any user defined distribution. Forsey-Sortino Source Code: 1. The source code, written in Visual Basic 5.0, is provided for institutional investors who want to add these calculations to their existing financial services. 2. No royalties are required for this source code, providing institutions inform clients of the source of these calculations. A growing number of services are now calculating downside risk in a manner that we are not comfortable with. Therefore, we want investors to know when downside risk and upside potential are calculated in accordance with the methodology described in this book. Riddles Spreadsheet: 1. Neil Riddles, former Senior Vice President and Director of Performance Analysis at Templeton Global Advisors, now COO at Hansberger Global Advisors Inc., offers a free spreadsheet in excel format. 2. The spreadsheet calculates downside risk and upside potential relative to the returns on an index Brings together a range of relevant material, not currently available in a single volume source. Provides practical information on how financial organisations can use downside risk techniques and technological developments to effectively manage risk in their portfolio management. Provides a rigorous theoretical underpinning for the use of downside risk techniques. This is important for the long-run acceptance of the methodology, since such arguments justify consultant's recommendations to pension funds and other plan sponsors.
Book Synopsis Downside Risk and Stock Returns by : Cathy Chen
Download or read book Downside Risk and Stock Returns written by Cathy Chen and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregression (FCVAR) model to examine various relations between stock returns and downside risk. Evidence from major advanced markets supports the notion that downside risk measured by value-at-risk (VaR) has significant information content that reflects lagged long-run variance and higher moments of risk for predicting stock returns. The evidence supports the positive tradeoff hypothesis and the leverage effect in the long run and for some markets in the short run. We find that US downside risk accounts for 54.36% of price discovery, whereas the own effect from the country itself contributes only 27.06%.
Book Synopsis Extreme Downside Risk and Expected Stock Returns by : Wei Huang
Download or read book Extreme Downside Risk and Expected Stock Returns written by Wei Huang and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a measure for extreme downside risk (EDR) to investigate whether bearing such a risk is rewarded by higher expected stock returns. Constructing an EDR proxy with the left tail index in the classical generalized extreme value distribution, we document a significantly positive premium on firm-specific EDR in cross-section of stock returns even after controlling for market, size, value, momentum, and liquidity effects. The EDR premium is more prominent among glamour stocks and when high market returns are expected. High-EDR stocks generally have high idiosyncratic risk, large downside beta, lower coskewness and cokurtosis, and high bankruptcy risk. The EDR premium persists after these characteristics are controlled for. EDR is also closely related to firm-specific Value at Risk (VaR) which substantially impacts EDR's effect on expected stock returns. EDR supplements VaR in predicting stock returns by exhibiting additional explanatory power.
Book Synopsis Machine Learning Applications for Accounting Disclosure and Fraud Detection by : Papadakis, Stylianos
Download or read book Machine Learning Applications for Accounting Disclosure and Fraud Detection written by Papadakis, Stylianos and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2020-10-02 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The prediction of the valuation of the “quality” of firm accounting disclosure is an emerging economic problem that has not been adequately analyzed in the relevant economic literature. While there are a plethora of machine learning methods and algorithms that have been implemented in recent years in the field of economics that aim at creating predictive models for detecting business failure, only a small amount of literature is provided towards the prediction of the “actual” financial performance of the business activity. Machine Learning Applications for Accounting Disclosure and Fraud Detection is a crucial reference work that uses machine learning techniques in accounting disclosure and identifies methodological aspects revealing the deployment of fraudulent behavior and fraud detection in the corporate environment. The book applies machine learning models to identify “quality” characteristics in corporate accounting disclosure, proposing specific tools for detecting core business fraud characteristics. Covering topics that include data mining; fraud governance, detection, and prevention; and internal auditing, this book is essential for accountants, auditors, managers, fraud detection experts, forensic accountants, financial accountants, IT specialists, corporate finance experts, business analysts, academicians, researchers, and students.
Book Synopsis Downside Correlation and Expected Stock Returns by : Andrew Ang
Download or read book Downside Correlation and Expected Stock Returns written by Andrew Ang and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If investors are more averse to the risk of losses on the downside than of gains on the upside, investors ought to demand greater compensation for holding stocks with greater downside risk. Downside correlations better capture the asymmetric nature of risk than downside betas, since conditional betas exhibit little asymmetry across falling and rising markets. We find that stocks with high downside correlations with the market, which are correlations over periods when excess market returns are below the mean, have high expected returns. Controlling for the market beta, the size effect, and the book-to-market effect, the expected return on a portfolio of stocks with the greatest downside correlations exceeds the expected return on a portfolio of stocks with the least downside correlations by 6.55% per annum. We find that part of the profitability of investing in momentum strategies can be explained as compensation for bearing high exposure to downside risk.
Book Synopsis Variance Premium, Downside Risk and Expected Stock Returns by : Bruno Feunou
Download or read book Variance Premium, Downside Risk and Expected Stock Returns written by Bruno Feunou and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'We decompose total variance into its bad and good components and measure the premia associated with their fluctuations using stock and option data from a large cross-section of firms. The total variance risk premium (VRP) represents the premium paid to insure against fluctuations in bad variance (called bad VRP), net of the premium received to compensate for fluctuations in good variance (called good VRP). Bad VRP provides a direct assessment of the degree to which asset downside risk may become extreme, while good VRP proxies for the degree to which asset upside potential may shrink. We find that bad VRP is important economically; in the cross-section, a one-standard-deviation increase is associated with an increase of up to 13% in annualized expected excess returns. Simultaneously going long on stocks with high bad VRP and short on stocks with low bad VRP yields an annualized risk-adjusted expected excess return of 18%. This result remains significant in double-sort strategies and cross-sectional regressions controlling for a host of firm characteristics and exposures to regular and downside risk factors'--Abstract, p. ii.
Book Synopsis Portfolio Returns by : Ojwang Omondi
Download or read book Portfolio Returns written by Ojwang Omondi and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investment in the financial markets is guided by the trade-off between expected returns and risk appetite of the investor. Higher risks could possibly result in higher expected return on the upside risk but the possibility of massive downside risk of loss must never escape the investor. The dynamic market condition should shape an investor's macro-economic perception with a view to taming the market but not to beat the market for the latter is a herculean and elusive task to undertake. Portfolio theory draws from the theory of the firm only that the former deals with investors both rational and irrational with a view to optimal asset mix in a diversified portfolio subject to future uncertainty. Models have been developed to analyze economic equilibrium in the face of optimizing investors including CAPM and APT an analysis of which forms the basis of this paper with a brief look on portfolio performance.
Book Synopsis Option-Implied Downside Risk Premiums by : Yao Li
Download or read book Option-Implied Downside Risk Premiums written by Yao Li and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article examines downside risk premiums using S&P 500 index (SPX) options. Portfolios are constructed using the index options to replicate the downside risk factors and their average excess returns provide estimates of downside risk premiums. We show that all the market risk premium comes from the downside. The mimicking portfolio returns also show that most of the downside risk premium is associated with large market-level losses that are rarely observed. In contrast, investors seem to require little excess return for bearing moderate market-level losses. Therefore, the downside risk premium is largely a tail risk premium. We compare the downside risk premiums measured from stocks and the options to examine whether the risk is priced consistently across the two markets. Our evidence raises several concerns about the downside risk premium measures from the stock market. Overall, we find no robust evidence that downside risks are priced in the stock market in the same way as in the options market.
Book Synopsis The Cross-sectional Determinants of US Stocks Returns by : Fangzhou Huang
Download or read book The Cross-sectional Determinants of US Stocks Returns written by Fangzhou Huang and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this thesis, we investigate the relationship between the US stock returns and downside risk in a cross-sectional context. When the classic market model with a moving window approach is adopted, downside risk estimated coefficients exhibit a positive impact on stock returns. However, when two other non-linear time-varying models; the cuiic piecewise polynomial function (CPPF) and the Fourier Flexible Form (FFF) models are adopted, downside risk estimated coefficients show a negative impact on stock returns, Cross-sectinally, the reisk estimated coefficients of the town non-linear models produce a much better fit than the classic market model. The predictive power for future stock returns of downside risk estimated coefficients are found to be weak. Two more risk factors: commodityh market risk and Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti (ADS) business condition index risk (both downside and upside versions thereof), are shown to have a significant effect on stock returns.
Book Synopsis Geopolitical Risk on Stock Returns: Evidence from Inter-Korea Geopolitics by : Seungho Jung
Download or read book Geopolitical Risk on Stock Returns: Evidence from Inter-Korea Geopolitics written by Seungho Jung and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-22 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate how corporate stock returns respond to geopolitical risk in the case of South Korea, which has experienced large and unpredictable geopolitical swings that originate from North Korea. To do so, a monthly index of geopolitical risk from North Korea (the GPRNK index) is constructed using automated keyword searches in South Korean media. The GPRNK index, designed to capture both upside and downside risk, corroborates that geopolitical risk sharply increases with the occurrence of nuclear tests, missile launches, or military confrontations, and decreases significantly around the times of summit meetings or multilateral talks. Using firm-level data, we find that heightened geopolitical risk reduces stock returns, and that the reductions in stock returns are greater especially for large firms, firms with a higher share of domestic investors, and for firms with a higher ratio of fixed assets to total assets. These results suggest that international portfolio diversification and investment irreversibility are important channels through which geopolitical risk affects stock returns.
Download or read book Downside Risk written by Andrew Ang and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists have long recognized that investors care differently about downside losses versus upside gains. Agents who place greater weight on downside risk demand additional compensation for holding stocks with high sensitivities to downside market movements. We show that the cross-section of stock returns reflects a premium for downside risk. Specifically, stocks that covary strongly with the market when the market declines have high average returns. We estimate that the downside risk premium is approximately 6% per annum. The reward for bearing downside risk is not simply compensation for regular market beta, nor is it explained by coskewness or liquidity risk, or size, book-to-market, and momentum characteristics.
Book Synopsis Risk and Rates of Return by : Maximilian Wegener
Download or read book Risk and Rates of Return written by Maximilian Wegener and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2013-05-29 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2012 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 9.0, Maastricht University (SBE), course: Intermediate Financial Management, language: English, abstract: In 1996, Northern Electric and Mid-Continent Gas merged into the North Central Utilities (NCU) since both companies were convinced that future success is dependent on the provision of an entire set of energy sources. Furthermore the merger put both firms in a better position compared to their competitors, especially in view of the fact that in 1996, regulatory changes empowered companies to compete for business in other firm’s territories. Beforehand, competition basically did not exist and the profits were determined easily. Companies knew the amount of capital invested, the cost of capital and the product of those two demonstrated the profits, which had to be generated. In the following case, several questions will be answered to the changing conditions in the utility industry....
Book Synopsis Empirical Asset Pricing by : Turan G. Bali
Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Turan G. Bali and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-02-26 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Bali, Engle, and Murray have produced a highly accessible introduction to the techniques and evidence of modern empirical asset pricing. This book should be read and absorbed by every serious student of the field, academic and professional.” Eugene Fama, Robert R. McCormick Distinguished Service Professor of Finance, University of Chicago and 2013 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences “The empirical analysis of the cross-section of stock returns is a monumental achievement of half a century of finance research. Both the established facts and the methods used to discover them have subtle complexities that can mislead casual observers and novice researchers. Bali, Engle, and Murray’s clear and careful guide to these issues provides a firm foundation for future discoveries.” John Campbell, Morton L. and Carole S. Olshan Professor of Economics, Harvard University “Bali, Engle, and Murray provide clear and accessible descriptions of many of the most important empirical techniques and results in asset pricing.” Kenneth R. French, Roth Family Distinguished Professor of Finance, Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College “This exciting new book presents a thorough review of what we know about the cross-section of stock returns. Given its comprehensive nature, systematic approach, and easy-to-understand language, the book is a valuable resource for any introductory PhD class in empirical asset pricing.” Lubos Pastor, Charles P. McQuaid Professor of Finance, University of Chicago Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is a comprehensive overview of the most important findings of empirical asset pricing research. The book begins with thorough expositions of the most prevalent econometric techniques with in-depth discussions of the implementation and interpretation of results illustrated through detailed examples. The second half of the book applies these techniques to demonstrate the most salient patterns observed in stock returns. The phenomena documented form the basis for a range of investment strategies as well as the foundations of contemporary empirical asset pricing research. Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns also includes: Discussions on the driving forces behind the patterns observed in the stock market An extensive set of results that serve as a reference for practitioners and academics alike Numerous references to both contemporary and foundational research articles Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is an ideal textbook for graduate-level courses in asset pricing and portfolio management. The book is also an indispensable reference for researchers and practitioners in finance and economics. Turan G. Bali, PhD, is the Robert Parker Chair Professor of Finance in the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University. The recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize, he is the coauthor of Mathematical Methods for Finance: Tools for Asset and Risk Management, also published by Wiley. Robert F. Engle, PhD, is the Michael Armellino Professor of Finance in the Stern School of Business at New York University. He is the 2003 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences, Director of the New York University Stern Volatility Institute, and co-founding President of the Society for Financial Econometrics. Scott Murray, PhD, is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Finance in the J. Mack Robinson College of Business at Georgia State University. He is the recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize.
Book Synopsis A Novel Downside Risk Measure and Expected Returns by : Jinjing Liu
Download or read book A Novel Downside Risk Measure and Expected Returns written by Jinjing Liu and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Several studies have found that the cross-section of stock returns reflects a risk premium for bearing downside risk; however, existing measures of downside risk have poor power for predicting returns. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel measure of downside risk, the ES-implied beta, to improve the prediction of the cross-section of asset returns. The ES-implied beta explains stock returns over the same period as well as the widely used downside beta, but also has strong predictive power over future returns. In the empirical analysis, although the widely used downside beta shows a weak relation with future expected returns, the ES-implied beta implies a statistically and economically significant risk premium of 0.5 percent per month. The predictive power of the ES-implied beta is not explained by the cross-sectional effects from the CAPM beta, size, book-to-market ratio, momentum, coskewness, cokurtosis or liquidity beta, nor does it depend on the design of the empirical analysis.
Book Synopsis Managing Downside Risk in Financial Markets by : Frank A. Sortino
Download or read book Managing Downside Risk in Financial Markets written by Frank A. Sortino and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2001-09-20 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Quantitative methods have revolutionized the area of trading, regulation, risk management, portfolio construction, asset pricing and treasury activities, and governmental activity such as central banking to name but some of the applications. Downside-risk, as a quantitative method, is an accurate measurement of investment risk, because it captures the risk of not accomplishing the investor's goal.'Downside Risk in Financial Markets' demonstrates how downside-risk can produce better results in performance measurement and asset allocation than variance modelling. Theory, as well as the practical issues involved in its implementation, is covered and the arguments put forward emphatically show the superiority of downside risk models to variance models in terms of risk measurement and decision making. Variance considers all uncertainty to be risky. Downside-risk only considers returns below that needed to accomplish the investor's goal, to be risky.Risk is one of the biggest issues facing the financial markets today. 'Downside Risk in Financial Markets' outlines the major issues for Investment Managers and focuses on "downside-risk" as a key activity in managing risk in investment/portfolio management. Managing risk is now THE paramount topic within the financial sector and recurring losses through the 1990s has shocked financial institutions into placing much greater emphasis on risk management and control.Free Software Enclosed To help you implement the knowledge you will gain from reading this book, a CD is enclosed that contains free software programs that were previously only available to institutional investors under special licensing agreement to The pension Research Institute. This is our contribution to the advancement of professionalism in portfolio management.The Forsey-Sortino model is an executable program that:1. Runs on any PC without the need of any additional software.2. Uses the bootstrap procedure developed by Dr. Bradley Effron at Stanford University to uncover what could have happened, instead of relying only on what did happen in the past. This is the best procedure we know of for describing the nature of uncertainty in financial markets. 3. Fits a three parameter lognormal distribution to the bootstrapped data to allow downside risk to be calculated from a continuous distribution. This improves the efficacy of the downside risk estimates.4. Calculates upside potential and downside risk from monthly returns on any portfolio manager. 5. Calculates upside potential and downside risk from any user defined distribution.Forsey-Sortino Source Code:1. The source code, written in Visual Basic 5.0, is provided for institutional investors who want to add these calculations to their existing financial services. 2. No royalties are required for this source code, providing institutions inform clients of the source of these calculations. A growing number of services are now calculating downside risk in a manner that we are not comfortable with. Therefore, we want investors to know when downside risk and upside potential are calculated in accordance with the methodology described in this book. Riddles Spreadsheet:1. Neil Riddles, former Senior Vice President and Director of Performance Analysis at Templeton Global Advisors, now COO at Hansberger Global Advisors Inc., offers a free spreadsheet in excel format.2. The spreadsheet calculates downside risk and upside potential relative to the returns on an index
