Does Money Matter In Predicting Future Events

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Does money matter in predicting future events?

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Author : Sebastian Diemer
Publisher : Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag)
ISBN 13 : 395489632X
Total Pages : 49 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (548 download)

Book Synopsis Does money matter in predicting future events? by : Sebastian Diemer

Download or read book Does money matter in predicting future events? written by Sebastian Diemer and published by Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag). This book was released on 2014-02-01 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prediction markets are online trading platforms where contracts on future events are traded with payoffs being exclusively linked to event occurrence. Scientific research has shown that market prices of such contracts imply high forecasting accuracy through effective information aggregation of dispersed knowledge. This phenomenon is related to incentives for truthful aggregation in the form of real-money or play-money rewards. The question whether real- or play-money incentives enhance higher relative forecast accuracy has been addressed by previous works with diverse findings. The current state of empirical research in his field is subject to two inherent deficiencies. First, inter-market studies suffer from market disparities and differences in the definition of underlying events. Comparisons between two different platforms (one for play-money contracts, one for real-money contracts) are potentially biased by different trading behaviour. Second, the majority of studies are based upon identical datasets of market platforms (IOWA stock exchange, Tradesports/Intrade, NewsFutures).

Superforecasting

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Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Crown
ISBN 13 : 080413670X
Total Pages : 331 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (41 download)

Book Synopsis Superforecasting by : Philip E. Tetlock

Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Critical Review Of Van, A: Earthquake Prediction From Seismic Electrical Signals

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Author : James Lighthill
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9814499447
Total Pages : 396 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (144 download)

Book Synopsis Critical Review Of Van, A: Earthquake Prediction From Seismic Electrical Signals by : James Lighthill

Download or read book Critical Review Of Van, A: Earthquake Prediction From Seismic Electrical Signals written by James Lighthill and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 1996-02-12 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The acronym VAN refers to Drs Varotsos, Alexopoulos and Nomicos, members of a group based in the University of Athens and led by Professor Varotsos (head of the Physics Department) which for over a decade has sought to use electric-field measurements between electrodes buried in the earth to predict earthquakes in Greece over periods of order one month or less. But is such “short-term” prediction achievable by the VAN approach (or by any other)? This book is an objective collection of the arguments for — and the counterarguments against — that approach, intended to help scientific readers arrive at their own answers to this important question, as well as to others (including that of VAN's “export” potential).

A Gambling Guide

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Author : Nicolae Sfetcu
Publisher : Nicolae Sfetcu
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 975 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

Book Synopsis A Gambling Guide by : Nicolae Sfetcu

Download or read book A Gambling Guide written by Nicolae Sfetcu and published by Nicolae Sfetcu. This book was released on 2014-05-03 with total page 975 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Gambling as a betting action – wagering money or something of material value on an event with an uncertain outcome with the primary intent of winning additional money or material goods. A guide about what is gambling (with a special section for online gambling), casino games with both beatable casino games (poker , blackjack, video poker with progressive jackpot, pai gow poker, sports betting, horse racing – parimutuel, slot machines and other gambling machines) and unbeatable casino games (baccarat, craps, roulette, keno, casino war, faro, pachinko, sic bo, let it ride, 3-card poker, 4-card poker, red dog, Caribbean stud poker, etc.), and non-casino gambling games (bingo, lottery, mahjong, backgammon, bridge, etc.). Fixed-odds gambling in sports is also present in this book with horse racing, greyhound racing, football (particularly association football, American football and rugby), golf, tennis, cricket, baseball, basketball, ice hockey, snooker, motor sports, boxing, darts, cross-country skiing and biathlon. Please, don’t forget to take a look to the legality of the gambling and online gambling, as well as to the articles, warnings and links dedicated to the gambling addiction. Extreme cases of problem gambling may cross over into the realm of mental disorders.

Computer and Information Science

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Author : Roger Lee
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3540791876
Total Pages : 291 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (47 download)

Book Synopsis Computer and Information Science by : Roger Lee

Download or read book Computer and Information Science written by Roger Lee and published by Springer. This book was released on 2008-05-07 with total page 291 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 7th IEEE/ACIS Conference and the 2nd IEEE/ACIS Workshop on e-Activity (IWEA 2008) featured researchers from around the world. The conference organizers selected 23 outstanding papers for this volume of Springer’s Studies in Computational Intelligence.

Booms and Busts: An Encyclopedia of Economic History from the First Stock Market Crash of 1792 to the Current Global Economic Crisis

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Author : Mehmet Odekon
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317475755
Total Pages : 1736 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (174 download)

Book Synopsis Booms and Busts: An Encyclopedia of Economic History from the First Stock Market Crash of 1792 to the Current Global Economic Crisis by : Mehmet Odekon

Download or read book Booms and Busts: An Encyclopedia of Economic History from the First Stock Market Crash of 1792 to the Current Global Economic Crisis written by Mehmet Odekon and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-03-17 with total page 1736 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This timely and authoritative set explores three centuries of good times and hard times in major economies throughout the world. More than 400 signed articles cover events from Tulipmania during the 1630s to the U.S. federal stimulus package of 2009, and introduce readers to underlying concepts, recurring themes, major institutions, and notable figures. Written in a clear, accessible style, "Booms and Busts" provides vital insight and perspective for students, teachers, librarians, and the general public - anyone interested in understanding the historical precedents, causes, and effects of the global economic crisis. Special features include a chronology of major booms and busts through history, a glossary of economic terms, a guide to further research, an appendix of primary documents, a topic finder, and a comprehensive index. It features 1,050 pages; three volumes; 8-1/2" X 11"; topic finder; photos; chronology; glossary; primary documents; bibliography; and, index.

The Psychology of Money

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Author : Morgan Housel
Publisher : Harriman House Limited
ISBN 13 : 085719769X
Total Pages : 209 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (571 download)

Book Synopsis The Psychology of Money by : Morgan Housel

Download or read book The Psychology of Money written by Morgan Housel and published by Harriman House Limited. This book was released on 2020-09-08 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Doing well with money isn’t necessarily about what you know. It’s about how you behave. And behavior is hard to teach, even to really smart people. Money—investing, personal finance, and business decisions—is typically taught as a math-based field, where data and formulas tell us exactly what to do. But in the real world people don’t make financial decisions on a spreadsheet. They make them at the dinner table, or in a meeting room, where personal history, your own unique view of the world, ego, pride, marketing, and odd incentives are scrambled together. In The Psychology of Money, award-winning author Morgan Housel shares 19 short stories exploring the strange ways people think about money and teaches you how to make better sense of one of life’s most important topics.

The Bystander

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 1092 pages
Book Rating : 4.A/5 ( download)

Book Synopsis The Bystander by :

Download or read book The Bystander written by and published by . This book was released on 1916 with total page 1092 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Vedic Astrology in Money Matters

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Author : P. K. Vasudev
Publisher : Sagar Publications
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 722 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

Book Synopsis Vedic Astrology in Money Matters by : P. K. Vasudev

Download or read book Vedic Astrology in Money Matters written by P. K. Vasudev and published by Sagar Publications. This book was released on 2024-04-29 with total page 722 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a comprehensive and cogent astrological methodology to lend meaningful support to the speculators and investors in stock markets for taking timely and prudent decisions to accentuate gains and to avert losses. It intends to cover the fundamental and potent astro-combinations allied to money matters. For those who dabble in stock and bullion markets, the efficacy of Sarvatobhadra Chakra an ancient tool, has been aptly demonstrated. Besides, the book deals with the entire range of business astrology and presents a compact reading ina lucid form.

Intuitive Predictions and Professional Forecasts

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Author : Jurgen T. Rehm
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 1483286924
Total Pages : 187 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (832 download)

Book Synopsis Intuitive Predictions and Professional Forecasts by : Jurgen T. Rehm

Download or read book Intuitive Predictions and Professional Forecasts written by Jurgen T. Rehm and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-10-22 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume discusses new approaches for the integration of cognitive psychology and professional forecasting, conceptual clarification of intuition and its role in predictions and forecasts. The authors present empirical tests of the theoretical assumptions in the area of psychiatric prognosis, election predictions and energy consumption forecasts. The book goes beyond the individual perspective and deals with technological problems and the social consequences of predictions. The reader is given a vivid overview for judgemental forecasting with special emphasis on practical problems.

Leveraging

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Author : David M. Anderson
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319060945
Total Pages : 205 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (19 download)

Book Synopsis Leveraging by : David M. Anderson

Download or read book Leveraging written by David M. Anderson and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-06-04 with total page 205 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book considers the current domestic and global political and economic landscape and will show that there are three different but related kinds of leverage that together have emerged as the dominant strategy in economics, politics and international relations. The economic crisis of 2008-09 was called by most economists a crisis of “over-leverage.” Yet no one has argued that there has also been a leverage crisis or at least a “leverage challenge,” in other aspects of life. The This book argues that there is a “leverage mean” in between the extremes of too little leverage and too much leverage that provides the basis for resolving the various crises and challenges. This book, which grows out of a Brookings Institution paper “The Age of Leverage,” will analyze bargaining leverage, resource leverage and economic investment leverage and should draw the attention of students and teachers in political and economic philosophy.

Mood Matters

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Author : John L. Casti
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642048358
Total Pages : 267 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (42 download)

Book Synopsis Mood Matters by : John L. Casti

Download or read book Mood Matters written by John L. Casti and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-06-25 with total page 267 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Mood Matters" makes the radical assertion that all social events ranging from fashions in music and art to the rise and fall of civilizations are biased by the attitudes a society holds toward the future. When the "social mood" is positive and people look forward to the future, events of an entirely different character tend to occur than when society is pessimistic. The book presents many examples from every walk of life in support of this argument. In addition, methods are given to actually measure the social mood and to project it into the future in order to forecast what’s likely or not over varying periods of time. Casti's writing is a pleasure to read and its contents an eye-opener. "They [the chapters] tell an engrossing story, and the mystery heightens as it goes. . . . it's chatty and knowing." Greg Benford, Physicist and science-fiction writer, author of "Timescape" and "Deep Time" "I am struck by how thought-provoking it all is. I am sure that your book will draw a lot of attention" Tor Norretranders, Science writer, author of "The Generous Man" and "The User Illusion".

The Very, Very Rich and How They Got That Way (Harriman Classics)

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Author : Max Gunther
Publisher : Harriman House Limited
ISBN 13 : 0857199560
Total Pages : 271 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (571 download)

Book Synopsis The Very, Very Rich and How They Got That Way (Harriman Classics) by : Max Gunther

Download or read book The Very, Very Rich and How They Got That Way (Harriman Classics) written by Max Gunther and published by Harriman House Limited. This book was released on 2021-09-07 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Max Gunther’s classic study of the super rich - now back in a new edition. The Very, Very Rich and How They Got That Way provides revealing insights into the intriguing world of big money, recounting the spectacular success stories of 15 people who made it to the very, very top. In 1972, Max Gunther invited readers to take a journey with him through a gallery of America's most prominent millionaires. The inhabitants framed here are by no means merely ordinary millionaires, though - the minimum qualifying standard to be considered for inclusion was ownership of assets valued at $100 million or more (the equivalent of $650 million today). This classic is now nearly 50 years old but its value endures, since the key steps on the route to wealth do not change with time. These secrets can be learned from, adapted and applied by anyone today.

The Expository Commentary:Genesis

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Author : Dudley Smith
Publisher : Lulu.com
ISBN 13 : 0557244536
Total Pages : 278 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (572 download)

Book Synopsis The Expository Commentary:Genesis by : Dudley Smith

Download or read book The Expository Commentary:Genesis written by Dudley Smith and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Inflation Expectations

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Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)

Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Effectual Entrepreneurship

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Author : Stuart Read
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317410319
Total Pages : 628 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (174 download)

Book Synopsis Effectual Entrepreneurship by : Stuart Read

Download or read book Effectual Entrepreneurship written by Stuart Read and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-09-19 with total page 628 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What are you waiting for? Whether you’re dreaming about starting a business, learning about entrepreneurship or on the brink of creating a new opportunity right now, don’t wait. Open this updated bestseller. Inside you’ll find everything you need, including: a new and popular way to learn about and to practice entrepreneurship. new practical exercises, questions and activities for each step in your process. specific principles derived from the methods of expert entrepreneurs. over seventy updated case briefs of entrepreneurs across industries, locations and time. new applications to social entrepreneurship, technology and to large enterprises. plentiful connections to current and foundational research in the field (Research Roots) brand new chapter on "The Ask" - strategies for initiating the process of co-creating with partners data that will challenge conventional entrepreneurship wisdom a broader perspective on the science of entrepreneurship In this vibrant updated edition, you will find these ideas presented in the concise, modular, graphical form made popular in the first edition, perfect for those learning to be entrepreneurs or those already in the thick of things. If you want to learn about entrepreneurship in a way that emphasizes action, this new edition is vital reading. If you have already launched your entrepreneurial career and are looking for new perspectives, take the effectual entrepreneurship challenge! this book is for you. If you feel that you are no longer creating anything novel or valuable in your day job, and you’re wondering how to change things, this book is for you. Anyone using entrepreneurship to create the change they want to see in the world will find a wealth of thought-provoking material, expert advice and practical techniques in these pages and on the accompanying website: www.effectuation.org So, what are you waiting for?

Social Psychology, Second Edition

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Author : Arie W. Kruglanski
Publisher : Guilford Publications
ISBN 13 : 1462514863
Total Pages : 1026 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (625 download)

Book Synopsis Social Psychology, Second Edition by : Arie W. Kruglanski

Download or read book Social Psychology, Second Edition written by Arie W. Kruglanski and published by Guilford Publications. This book was released on 2013-10-21 with total page 1026 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book has been replaced by Social Psychology, Third Edition, ISBN 978-1-4625-4398-4.