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Does Infrastructure Investment Lead To Economic Growth Or Economic Fragility Evidence From China
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Book Synopsis Does Infrastructure Investment Lead to Economic Growth Or Economic Fragility? Evidence from China by : Atif Ansar
Download or read book Does Infrastructure Investment Lead to Economic Growth Or Economic Fragility? Evidence from China written by Atif Ansar and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China's three-decade infrastructure investment boom shows few signs of abating. Is China's economic growth a consequence of its purposeful investment? Is China a prodigy in delivering infrastructure from which rich democracies could learn? The prevalent view in the economics literature and policies derived from it is that a high level of infrastructure investment is a precursor to economic growth. China is held up as a model to emulate. Politicians in rich democracies display awe and envy of the scale of infrastructure Chinese leaders are able to build. Based on the largest dataset of its kind, this paper punctures the twin myths that (i) infrastructure creates economic value, and that (ii) China has a distinct advantage in its delivery. Far from being an engine of economic growth, the typical infrastructure investment fails to deliver a positive risk-adjusted return. Moreover, China's track record in delivering infrastructure is no better than that of rich democracies. Investing in unproductive projects results initially in a boom, as long as construction is on-going, followed by a bust, when forecasted benefits fail to materialize and projects therefore become a drag on the economy. Where investments are debt-financed, overinvesting in unproductive projects results in the build-up of debt, monetary expansion, instability in financial markets, and economic fragility, exactly as we see in China today. We conclude that poorly managed infrastructure investments are a main explanation of surfacing economic and financial problems in China. We predict that, unless China shifts to a lower level of higher-quality infrastructure investments, the country is headed for an infrastructure-led national financial and economic crisis, which is likely to spread to the international economy. China's infrastructure investment model is not one to follow for other countries but one to avoid.
Book Synopsis Road Development, Economic Growth, and Poverty Reduction in China by : Shenggen Fan
Download or read book Road Development, Economic Growth, and Poverty Reduction in China written by Shenggen Fan and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2005-01-01 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since 1985, the Chinese government has given high priority to building roads, particularly high-quality roads that connect industrial centers. This report evaluates the contribution roads have made to poverty reduction and economic growth in China over the last two decades. It disaggregates road infrastructure into different classes to account for differences in their quality, and then estimates the impact of road investments on overall economic growth, agricultural growth, urban growth, urban poverty reduction, and rural poverty reduction. The report makes the case for a greater focus on low-quality and rural roads in future infrastructure investment strategies in China. It does so by showing how investing in low-quality and rural roads will generate larger marginal returns, raise more people out of poverty per yuan invested, and reduce regional development disparity more sharply than investing in high-quality roads. The study's findings will have considerable implications for China's infrastructure policy
Book Synopsis Public Infrastructure and Regional Economic Development by : Weiguo Lu
Download or read book Public Infrastructure and Regional Economic Development written by Weiguo Lu and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Growth and Distributive Effects of Public Infrastructure Investments in China by : Yumei Zhang
Download or read book Growth and Distributive Effects of Public Infrastructure Investments in China written by Yumei Zhang and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Public infrastructure investments are seen as one of the key engines of economic growth in China. Yet, there is little quantitative evidence on the growth and distributive effects of public infrastructure investments (PII) in China. This paper applies a macro-micro simulation method, to assess the effects of PII on the national economy using an inter-temporal dynamic CGE model and its distributive effects on individual households using a microsimulation. The results showed that higher PII substantially raises productivity in all sectors and income in all household categories. Higher PII also helps reduce poverty and modestly improves equality. The results not only suggest that increasing PII can drive economic growth in China, but also that it is a useful strategy for the promotion of inclusive growth. In particular, China could consider investing more in rural infrastructure to reduce inequality between rural and urban households in the future.
Book Synopsis Political Patronage, Infrastructure, and Economic Growth by : Zhenhuan Lei
Download or read book Political Patronage, Infrastructure, and Economic Growth written by Zhenhuan Lei and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How does political patronage influence investment in critical infrastructure and economic growth in the long term? With a difference-in-differences design applied to the setting of China, I show that cities whose leaders established patron-client connections with their provincial superiors during 2008-09 were more likely to invest in transportation infrastructure and their state-dominated manufacture sector was more likely to grow. Both findings persist even after the crisis is over, showing that political patronage networks during the financial crisis had a long-term impact on how cities pursue economic growth. By contrast, unconnected cities were more likely to improve the business environment to foster private entrepreneurship and attract investment and accumulated fewer public debts than connected cities. Taken together, although patronage-client connections during the financial crisis boosted infrastructure investment and stimulated the growth of state-owned industrial firms, such connections also stifled private entrepreneurship and accumulated massive government debts in the long term.
Book Synopsis Infrastructure and Urbanization in the People's Republic of China by : Zhigang Li
Download or read book Infrastructure and Urbanization in the People's Republic of China written by Zhigang Li and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent experience of infrastructure investment in the People's Republic of China (PRC) suggests an intertwined relationship between investment, urbanization, and economic growth. In one mechanism, urbanization generates demand for infrastructure investment, which then drives economic growth via various channels including reducing transaction costs and raising productivity. Another mechanism emphasized in this paper is that infrastructure investment can promote urbanization through facilitating economic agglomeration toward hub cities. This agglomeration process also raises productivity in the economy. The lessons from the PRC have implications for infrastructure financing. On the one hand, recent reforms have allowed the market to play an increasingly important role in funding infrastructure investment, helping improve the efficiency of infrastructure investment and the productivity of the economy. On the other hand, evidence in the PRC suggests a cross-province spillover effect of road infrastructure, supporting the central government's role in infrastructure financing. Although the current infrastructure investment system is still distorted by local governments' incentives and decisions, there is no evidence of over-investment in infrastructure at the aggregate level. Nevertheless, there is strong evidence that the marginal return to infrastructure investment in the PRC has been rapidly declining. Hence, it is urgent for policy makers to reform the existing system to base their investment decisions on the economic returns to infrastructure.The interregional flow of goods and production factors (labor and capital) is a fundamental force that drives urbanization, but the market may not be efficient in financing and infrastructure construction. This paper analyzes infrastructure-related institutions and the interrelation between infrastructure and urbanization. It addresses the following issues: What is the relationship between infrastructure, growth, and urbanization? How efficient have investment and financing been for infrastructure construction? How can we evaluate the performance of infrastructure development? How and to what extent should the government be involved in infrastructure construction?
Book Synopsis Financing Infrastructure in Asia and the Pacific by : Naoyuki Yoshino
Download or read book Financing Infrastructure in Asia and the Pacific written by Naoyuki Yoshino and published by . This book was released on 2017-08-30 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Governments throughout the Asia-Pacific region recognize the catalyzing role of infrastructure investment for sustainable growth. Yet, they are faced with the problem of financing new infrastructure. This book provides the latest evidence on the impact of infrastructure investment on economic and social indicators. Presenting several country studies, the book explains how infrastructure investment can increase output, taxes, trade, and firm productivity. Based on this evidence, the book proposes innovative modes of infrastructure financing. Written by leading international experts in economic analysis of infrastructure, the book is an invaluable source for policy makers to better design infrastructure projects.
Book Synopsis Infrastructure-Led Urbanisation and Private Land Investment by : Ziyou Wang
Download or read book Infrastructure-Led Urbanisation and Private Land Investment written by Ziyou Wang and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Local governments practice infrastructure development as a strategy to attract private investment and promote local economic growth in China. This paper investigates how private sectors react to new infrastructure investment by emphasising private investment in land. Our theoretical model shows infrastructure positively affects private sectors' land investment and the effect becomes stronger in industrial sector than commercial sector. We use panel data of Chinese major cities between 2009-2017 to verify the model implication and find supportive evidence. In addition, we investigate whether a higher level of land subsidy undermines or amplifies the infrastructure effect on land investment but find weak evidence in either industrial or commercial sectors. Further, we examine how infrastructure effect and subsidy effect influence land allocation. Only subsidy effect plays a significant role in land allocation.
Book Synopsis The Effects of Infrastructure Investment on Economic Development in China, with Specific Focus on High-Speed Railways by : Binru Wei
Download or read book The Effects of Infrastructure Investment on Economic Development in China, with Specific Focus on High-Speed Railways written by Binru Wei and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Heterogeneous Effects of Inter- and Intra-City Transportation Infrastructure on Economic Growth by : Yang Chen
Download or read book Heterogeneous Effects of Inter- and Intra-City Transportation Infrastructure on Economic Growth written by Yang Chen and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The heterogeneous output effects of inter-city and intra-city transportation infrastructure in China are examined using 219 prefecture-level city data from 1999 to 2012. Using the panel fully-modified OLS analysis, we find that at the Chinese prefecture-level city the estimated contribution rate for highways ranges from 8.3-11.7% compared to 4.2-7.7% for railways and 5.8-7.5% for public roads without controlling for the effects of fiscal stimulus package in 2009 and 2010. With this package in effect, the contribution rate of public road network increases by 2.1% and that for highways decreases by 4.6% on average. We also provide empirical evidence for the unbalanced transport infrastructure development across regions and in three economic zones. It is shown that the eastern region should prioritize the intra-city infrastructure investment to alleviate the negative influence of within city congestion even though the economic impact of highway investment is the largest; while the economic growth of western region of China relies heavily on railway development and the middle area depends more on highway infrastructure investment.
Book Synopsis China’s Productivity Convergence and Growth Potential—A Stocktaking and Sectoral Approach by : Min Zhu
Download or read book China’s Productivity Convergence and Growth Potential—A Stocktaking and Sectoral Approach written by Min Zhu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-11-27 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. We find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence.
Book Synopsis Infrastructure in a Changing World by : Carlo Secchi
Download or read book Infrastructure in a Changing World written by Carlo Secchi and published by Ledizioni. This book was released on 2020-07-01 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a world on the brink of a global recession caused by the COVID-19 global pandemic, the infrastructure efforts of today and tomorrow are more crucial than ever.For one, they are an indispensable countercyclical tool to mitigate the negative effects of the economic paralysis.But they also constitute a pivotal component for a country’s development, raising its competitiveness in the long term. That is why infrastructure will continue to play a critical role even when the pandemic crisis has been tamed.Rapid demographic growth, increasing urbanization, especially in developing countries, coupled with the ounting challenge posed by climate change, are trends that are not going to disappear with the virus.How to cope with these global, long-term trends? How to finance the increasing need for infrastructure? Which major international actors will take the lead? And what role will technology play in shaping the future of infrastructure?
Book Synopsis Infrastructure Financing In Asia by : Bambang Susantono
Download or read book Infrastructure Financing In Asia written by Bambang Susantono and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2019-11-19 with total page 407 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First, the book documents the evolution of Asia's infrastructure over the past half-century and reviews existing literature on the role of infrastructure investment in supporting growth and social development. It highlights the positive impact of mass transit investments on land and property values, and the possibility of taxing the increase in values to finance these investments. It then examines Asia's current practices and new solutions that can help meet the infrastructure gap. It discusses the role of institutions, how innovation can foster energy infrastructure investments, and the role of bond markets in infrastructure investments. The book explores ASEAN+3 efforts in developing local currency bond markets to provide long-term local financing for infrastructure investment while providing financial resilience. It also examines the use of green bonds to finance sustainable growth in Asia.
Book Synopsis Urban Infrastructure and Economic Development in China by : Chunyang Pan
Download or read book Urban Infrastructure and Economic Development in China written by Chunyang Pan and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2024-01-12 with total page 174 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an overview of the history, basic concepts, and provision models of infrastructure, significant theories on infrastructure economics, practices at home and abroad that reflect the economic development effects of infrastructure, and four infrastructure economic growth models. Great attention is placed on the domestic front. This book describes and discusses in detail the historical background, development trends, achievements, and challenges of China’s infrastructure from 1949 to 2019, under the classic “supply and demand” analysis framework. From the four perspectives of market integration, open development, people’s livelihood, and endogenous growth, this book carries out an empirical study on how to quantify and make causal inferences about the economic development effects of infrastructure. Based on the conclusion that national governance is of important help to infrastructure provision, this book interprets China’s governance system and its impact on infrastructure provision from the angle of decentralization and offers suggestions on policy optimizing.
Book Synopsis International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis by : Laurent Ferrara
Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Book Synopsis Policy and Planning for Large Infrastructure Projects by : Bent Flyvbjerg
Download or read book Policy and Planning for Large Infrastructure Projects written by Bent Flyvbjerg and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: "This paper focuses on problems and their causes and cures in policy and planning for large infrastructure projects. First, it identifies as the main problem in major infrastructure development pervasive misinformation about the costs, benefits, and risks involved. A consequence of misinformation is massive cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and waste. Second, the paper explores the causes of misinformation and finds that political-economic explanations best account for the available evidence: planners and promoters deliberately misrepresent costs, benefits, and risks in order to increase the likelihood that it is their projects, and not the competition's, that gain approval and funding. This results in the "survival of the unfittest," where often it is not the best projects that are built, but the most misrepresented ones. Finally, the paper presents measures for reforming policy and planning for large infrastructure projects, with a focus on better planning methods and changed governance structures, the latter being more important."--World Bank web site.
Download or read book Lifelines written by Stephane Hallegatte and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-07-16 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Infrastructure—electricity, telecommunications, roads, water, and sanitation—are central to people’s lives. Without it, they cannot make a living, stay healthy, and maintain a good quality of life. Access to basic infrastructure is also a key driver of economic development. This report lays out a framework for understanding infrastructure resilience - the ability of infrastructure systems to function and meet users’ needs during and after a natural hazard. It focuses on four infrastructure systems that are essential to economic activity and people’s well-being: power systems, including the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity; water and sanitation—especially water utilities; transport systems—multiple modes such as road, rail, waterway, and airports, and multiple scales, including urban transit and rural access; and telecommunications, including telephone and Internet connections.
