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Does Expectations Management Impair The Usefulness Of Analyst Forecasts In Firm Valuation
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Book Synopsis Does Expectations Management Impair the Usefulness of Analyst Forecasts in Firm Valuation? by : Yao Tian
Download or read book Does Expectations Management Impair the Usefulness of Analyst Forecasts in Firm Valuation? written by Yao Tian and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, I examine how expectations management for the purpose of meeting or beating analyst expectations (MBE) impairs the ability of analyst forecast-based valuation models to predict firms' intrinsic values. I predict that management's manipulation of analyst expectations introduces error in analyst forecasts and reduces their ability to proxy future expected earnings; consequently, valuation models estimated using these manipulated forecasts have less ability than those estimated using non-manipulated forecasts to predict firms' true intrinsic values. The results show that, consistent with my prediction, intrinsic value metrics estimated using manipulated forecasts have less ability to track stock price (as evidenced by their lower correlation with stock prices and less stationary V/P time-series) and to predict future returns. These results provide consistent evidence for the negative impact of expectations management on the ability of accounting valuation models to predict firm value. This study contributes to the literature in two major respects: (i) it introduces an improved measure of expectations management to MBE; and (ii) it proposes expectations management (forecast manipulation) as a new determinant of the ability of accounting valuation models to predict firm value.
Book Synopsis Does Expectations Management Impair Firm Valuation? by : Yao Tian
Download or read book Does Expectations Management Impair Firm Valuation? written by Yao Tian and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the consequences of expectations management for the usefulness of analyst forecasts in firm valuation. Specifically, I compare the performances of valuation models estimated using manipulated versus non-manipulated forecasts to predict firms' intrinsic values. The results show that intrinsic value metrics estimated using manipulated forecasts have less ability to track stock prices and predict future returns. This suggests that management's downward forecast guidance introduces error in analyst forecasts and reduces their ability to proxy future expected earnings; consequently, valuation models estimated using these manipulated forecasts have less ability than those estimated using non-guided forecasts to predict firms' true intrinsic values. This study contributes to the literature in two major respects: (i) it introduces an improved measure of expectations management to meet or beat expectations (MBE); and (ii) it is the first study to document the negative impact of expectations management on firm valuation.
Book Synopsis The Impact of Earnings Management and Expectations Management on the Usefulness of Earnings and Analyst Forecasts in Firm Valuation by : Yao Tian
Download or read book The Impact of Earnings Management and Expectations Management on the Usefulness of Earnings and Analyst Forecasts in Firm Valuation written by Yao Tian and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Do Managers Use Meeting Analyst Forecasts to Signal Private Information? - Evidence from Patent Citations by : Katherine Gunny
Download or read book Do Managers Use Meeting Analyst Forecasts to Signal Private Information? - Evidence from Patent Citations written by Katherine Gunny and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study examines whether firms manage earnings to meet analyst forecasts to signal superior future performance. Prior research finds that firms use earnings management to just meet analyst forecasts and that these firms have a positive association with future performance (Bartov et al., 2002). There are two potential explanations for the positive association -- signaling and attaining benefits that allow for better future performance (i.e., the real benefits explanation). Prior studies cannot provide evidence of signaling because they do not control for the real benefits explanation. Our research design enables us to control for the real benefits explanation because we can identify potential signaling firms within the sample of firms that just meet analyst forecasts. We use a unique database from the National Bureau of Economic Research to construct a proxy for the manager's belief about future firm value due to patents. We find that firms with more patent citations are more likely to just meet the analyst forecast and manage earnings to achieve this goal. We also find firms that just meet analyst forecasts with more patent citations have significantly better performance than firms with fewer patent citations, which is consistent with signaling and not the real benefits explanation.
Book Synopsis Significance of Forecast Precision by : Kathy Rupar
Download or read book Significance of Forecast Precision written by Kathy Rupar and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I investigate whether alignment between individual investors' expectations about forecast precision and actual forecast precision affects their estimates of firm value, and whether this relationship is mediated by individual investors' perceptions of management credibility and future firm growth. Experimental results confirm that when expected and actual forecast precision align, individual investors estimate higher firm stock prices than when expected and actual forecast precision do not align. I also provide evidence of a mediation path through which the misalignment between expected and actual forecast precision affects individual investors' perceptions of management credibility, future firm growth, and estimates of firm stock price. My findings help reconcile inconsistencies in prior earnings forecast literature and inform managers and researchers about strategies that lead to higher perceptions of management credibility and firm value.
Book Synopsis The Determinants and Consequences of Managerial Earnings Guidance Prior to Regulation Fair Disclosure by : Amy P. Hutton
Download or read book The Determinants and Consequences of Managerial Earnings Guidance Prior to Regulation Fair Disclosure written by Amy P. Hutton and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Prior to Regulation Fair Disclosure some management spent considerable time and effort guiding analyst earnings estimates; other management did not. In this paper I examine the determinants and consequences of management's decision to work with analysts in the development of their earnings estimates using proprietary survey data from the National Investor Relations Institute. Findings suggest that when earnings are important to valuation but hard to forecast because businesses and financial transactions are complex, management is more likely to provide assistance to analysts presumably to avoid inaccurate analyst forecasts and negative earnings surprises. A comparison of guided and unguided analyst forecasts indicates that guided quarterly earnings forecasts are more accurate but also more frequently pessimistic, consistent with analysts rationally trading offbias for accuracy to retain access to management's earnings guidance. Cross-sample comparisons of analysts' stock recommendations and long-term growth forecasts provide additional support for the hypothesis that analyst objectivity and independence is affected by management's decision to provide earnings guidance. Finally, evidence from stock price reactions to deviations from the consensus forecast (the traditional measure of earnings surprises) indicates that investors distinguish between guided and unguided analyst forecasts when forming their earnings expectations. This study furthers our understanding of what factors affect management's disclosure choices and how managers' disclosure choices influence the objectivity and independence of sell-side analysts.
Book Synopsis The Effect of Analysts' Disaggregated Forecasts on Investors and Managers by : Landon M. Mauler
Download or read book The Effect of Analysts' Disaggregated Forecasts on Investors and Managers written by Landon M. Mauler and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I examine whether analysts' tax forecasts are informative to investors and whether analysts' tax forecasts impact firm behavior. Using I/B/E/S data from 2002-2014, I find that investors utilize both analysts' pre- and after-tax earnings forecasts in evaluating firm performance, indicating analysts' tax forecasts are value-relevant. Furthermore, evidence that investors discount earnings management through the income tax expense is limited to firms with tax forecast coverage. In examining the impact of analysts' tax forecasts on firm behavior, I find analysts' tax forecast coverage is positively associated with quantitative and qualitative tax footnote disclosure. The results suggest that analysts' tax forecasts are value-relevant and that analysts' tax coverage impacts firm decisions related to the income tax expense account. This evidence informs academics and practitioners as to the role of analysts' tax forecasts.
Book Synopsis Significance of Forecast Precision by : Katarzyna Karolina Rupar
Download or read book Significance of Forecast Precision written by Katarzyna Karolina Rupar and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I investigate whether the precision of an earnings forecast interacts with environmental uncertainty to affect investors' perceptions of management credibility, future firm growth, and firm stock price. I find that investors respond to a misalignment between environmental uncertainty and forecast precision by lowering their growth expectations and stock price estimates (lowering growth expectations and penalizing price estimates when point forecasts are issued in relatively uncertain environments or range forecasts are issued in relatively certain environments). I find a similar pattern of results for investors' perceptions of management credibility. Perceptions of management credibility mediate the impact of misalignment on investors' perceptions of future growth but do not mediate the impact of misalignment on stock price estimates. My findings have implications for managers issuing forecasts and for investors interpreting forecasts.
Book Synopsis Does Investor Sentiment Affect Sell-Side Analysts' Forecast Bias and Forecast Accuracy by : Beverly R. Walther
Download or read book Does Investor Sentiment Affect Sell-Side Analysts' Forecast Bias and Forecast Accuracy written by Beverly R. Walther and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the association between investor expectations and its components and sell-side analysts' short-run quarterly earnings forecast bias and forecast accuracy. To measure investor expectations, we use the Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE) survey and decompose it into the “fundamental” component related to underlying economic factors (FUND) and the “sentiment” component unrelated to underlying economic factors (SENT). We find that analysts are the most optimistic and the least accurate when SENT is higher. Management long-horizon earnings forecasts attenuate the effects of SENT on forecast optimism and forecast accuracy. Analysts are also the most accurate when FUND is higher. Last, the market places more weight on unexpected earnings when SENT is high. These findings suggest that analysts are affected by investor sentiment and the market reacts more strongly to unexpected earnings when analyst forecasts are the least accurate. The last result potentially explains why prior research (for example, Baker and Wurgler 2006) finds an association between investor sentiment and cross-sectional stock returns.
Book Synopsis Understanding Business Valuation by : Gary R. Trugman
Download or read book Understanding Business Valuation written by Gary R. Trugman and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-01-12 with total page 1936 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This fifth edition simplifies a technical and complex area of practice with real-world experience and examples. Expert author Gary Trugman's informal, easy-to-read style, covers all the bases in the various valuation approaches, methods, and techniques. Author note boxes throughout the publication draw on Trugman's veteran, practical experience to identify critical points in the content. Suitable for all experience levels, you will find valuable information that will improve and fine-tune your everyday activities.
Book Synopsis Outperform with Expectations-Based Management by : Tom Copeland
Download or read book Outperform with Expectations-Based Management written by Tom Copeland and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-09-28 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: CEOs and managers live and die by delivering superior performance to shareholders. This is why expectations-based management has been developed. Outperform with Expectations-Based Management (EBM) introduces a revolutionary new performance metric that links performance standards, performance measurement, and the achievement of performance. It's easy to say that if a CEO can get performance measurement right, then performance improvement will follow. But what is the "right" measure of performance, and how do you use it to improve performance? Authors Tom Copeland and Aaron Dolgoff answer these questions and many more, as they show you how to find the measure of performance that has the strongest link to the creation of wealth for the owners of both public and private companies. They answer the puzzle of why growth in earnings is not correlated with shareholder returns and explain the under- and over-investment traps. And they explain how clear communications to investors and managers alike improve value. The bottom line is that share prices go up when companies exceed expectations -- short-term and long-term -- of income statement and balance sheet performance and daily operating value drivers. Gain a complete understanding of EBM and discover how to do this, and much more, while staying competitive in an unforgiving business environment.
Book Synopsis Company Valuation and Information in Analyst Forecasts by : Daniel Kreutzmann
Download or read book Company Valuation and Information in Analyst Forecasts written by Daniel Kreutzmann and published by Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH. This book was released on 2010 with total page 141 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis focuses on the three primitive value drivers of each company valuation model that is based on fundamental analysis: the discount rate, the expected future payoffs during the explicit forecasting period, and the terminal value at the end of the explicit forecasting period. While the first factor is analyzed theoretically by incorporating the government into the classical valuation framework, this thesis studies the other two factors by investigating forecasts made by professional investors, i.e. financial analysts. In the first part we show that the government's and the shareholders discount rate usually differ and analyze how the government's and shareholders different objectives lead to conflicts in the context of capital budgeting. The empirical part of this thesis shows that macroeconomic information is frequently used by financial analysts when updating their earnings expecations and that target price forecastsmade by financial analysts can be used to predict abnormal returns.
Book Synopsis Damodaran on Valuation by : Aswath Damodaran
Download or read book Damodaran on Valuation written by Aswath Damodaran and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-02-08 with total page 698 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Aswath Damodaran is simply the best valuation teacher around. If you are interested in the theory or practice of valuation, you should have Damodaran on Valuation on your bookshelf. You can bet that I do." -- Michael J. Mauboussin, Chief Investment Strategist, Legg Mason Capital Management and author of More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places In order to be a successful CEO, corporate strategist, or analyst, understanding the valuation process is a necessity. The second edition of Damodaran on Valuation stands out as the most reliable book for answering many of today?s critical valuation questions. Completely revised and updated, this edition is the ideal book on valuation for CEOs and corporate strategists. You'll gain an understanding of the vitality of today?s valuation models and develop the acumen needed for the most complex and subtle valuation scenarios you will face.
Book Synopsis Valuation Approaches and Metrics by : Aswath Damodaran
Download or read book Valuation Approaches and Metrics written by Aswath Damodaran and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2005 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Valuation lies at the heart of much of what we do in finance, whether it is the study of market efficiency and questions about corporate governance or the comparison of different investment decision rules in capital budgeting. In this paper, we consider the theory and evidence on valuation approaches. We begin by surveying the literature on discounted cash flow valuation models, ranging from the first mentions of the dividend discount model to value stocks to the use of excess return models in more recent years. In the second part of the paper, we examine relative valuation models and, in particular, the use of multiples and comparables in valuation and evaluate whether relative valuation models yield more or less precise estimates of value than discounted cash flow models. In the final part of the paper, we set the stage for further research in valuation by noting the estimation challenges we face as companies globalize and become exposed to risk in multiple countries.
Book Synopsis International Perspectives on Accounting and Corporate Behavior by : Kunio Ito
Download or read book International Perspectives on Accounting and Corporate Behavior written by Kunio Ito and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-07-08 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite the globalization of accounting standards occurring through convergence to International Financial Reporting Standards, local accounting systems are deeply intertwined with each country’s unique institutions such as its corporate system, disclosure practices and enforcement mechanisms. First, this book empirically analyzes the effects of globalization and localization of accounting rules on corporate behavior such as earnings management, signaling, investment behavior and dividend payout policy. Second, the book unravels the economic consequences of disclosure based on the concept of self-disciplining enforcement such as management forecasts, environmental disclosures and risk disclosures by Japanese firms. This volume is a step forward in understanding the link between accounting and corporate behavior based on a new institutional accounting approach.
Book Synopsis Advances in Quantitative Analysis of Finance and Accounting by : Cheng-Few Lee
Download or read book Advances in Quantitative Analysis of Finance and Accounting written by Cheng-Few Lee and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2004 with total page 235 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Annotation. Advances in Quantitative Analysis of Finance and Accounting is an annual publication designed to disseminate developments in the quantitative analysis of finance and accounting. The publication is a forum for statistical and quantitative analyses of issues in finance and accounting as well as applications of quantitative methods to problems in financial management, financial accounting, and business management. The objective is to promote interaction between academic research in finance and accounting and applied research in the financial community and the accounting profession.The papers in this volume cover a wide range of topics including default risk premiums, multi-period contracts, stock market, impact of earnings change on stock price, bank regulation, dividend effect of closed-end mutual funds, income smoothing, and inflation accounting.
Book Synopsis Research in Accounting Regulation by : Gary Previts
Download or read book Research in Accounting Regulation written by Gary Previts and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2006-01-27 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The scope of service provided by professional accountants is influenced by legislation and case law as well as the dictates of a variety of government and private sector agencies; including State Boards of Accountancy, Academic Accreditation Bodies, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, the Public Accounting Oversight Board, independent standard setting bodies such as the Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board [US], the Financial Accounting Standards Board [US] and the International Accounting Standards Board. These entities and self-regulatory organizations such as U.S. State Societies of CPAs and the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants and equivalent and emerging national bodies that exist in most developed and developing countries, are among the emerging entities which attempt to coordinate the activities of professional accountants among sovereign nations. It is important for academics, students, practitioners, regulators and researchers to consider and study the role and relationship of such bodies with the practice and content of our discipline. Research in Accounting Regulation seeks high quality manuscripts which address accounting regulatory policy, broadly defined, including: 1. self regulatory activities 2. case law and litigation 3. legislation and government regulation 4. the economics of regulation of markets, and disclosure, including modeling 5. matters involving the structure of education, licensing, and accreditation The editors encourage submission of original empirical, behavioral or applied research manuscripts which consider strategic and policy implications for regulation, regulatory models and markets. It is intended for individual researchers, practitioners, regulators and students of accountancy who desire to increase their understanding of the regulation of accountancy.
