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Author : Alpo Willman
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Devaluation Expectations and Speculative Attacks on the Currency written by Alpo Willman and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mr.Robert P. Flood
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451852185
Total Pages : 64 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises written by Mr.Robert P. Flood and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-10-01 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews recent developments in the theoretical and empirical analysis of balance-of-payments crises. A simple analytical model highlighting the process leading to such crises is first developed. The basic framework is then extended to deal with a variety of issues, such as: alternative post-collapse regimes, uncertainty, real sector effects, external borrowing and capital controls, imperfect asset substitutability, sticky prices, and endogenous policy switches. Empirical evidence on the collapse of exchange rate regimes is also examined, and the major implications of the analysis for macroeconomic policy discussed.
Author : Mr.Robert P. Flood
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451855168
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book Perspectiveson the Recent Currency Crisis Literature written by Mr.Robert P. Flood and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-09-01 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the 1990s, currency crises in Europe, Mexico, and Asia have drawn worldwide attention to speculative attacks on government-controlled exchange rates and have prompted researchers to undertake new theoretical and empirical analysis of these events. This paper provides some perspective on this work and relates it to earlier research. It derives the optimal commitment to a fixed exchange rate and proposes a common framework for analyzing currency crises. This framework stresses the important role of speculators and recognizes that the government’s commitment to a fixed exchange rate is constrained by other policy goals. The final section finds that some crises may be particularly difficult to predict using currently popular methods.
Author : Pierre-Richard Agénor
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Exchange Restrictions and Devaluation Crises written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-09 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a model of devaluation crises for an economy where foreign exchange restrictions lead to the emergence of a parallel market. The devaluation rule relates the size of the parity change to the spread between the official and parallel exchange rates. The mechanism that triggers the devaluation relates credit policy and the inflation tax. A credit expansion leads to an increase in the spread and possibly to a fall in inflation tax revenue, as agents switch away from domestic currency holdings. A devaluation reverses temporarily the process of erosion of the tax base if the associated fall in the premium raises the credibility of the new parity.
Author : Giancarlo Corsetti
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Policy Making and Speculative Attacks in Models of Exchange Rate Crises written by Giancarlo Corsetti and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mr.Robert P. Flood
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451854692
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book Self-Fulfilling Risk Predictions written by Mr.Robert P. Flood and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-08-01 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper shows that changing market beliefs about currency risk can generate a self-fulfilling speculative attack on a fixed exchange rate. The attack does not require a later change in policies to make it profitable. This is illustrated by introducing an endogenous risk premium into a “first-generation model” of a speculative attack. The model is further modified to take account of sterilization, debt-financed fiscal deficits, and anticipatory price-setting behavior. The model is used to interpret the 1994 Mexican peso crisis.
Author : Mr.Guillermo Calvo
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451926510
Total Pages : 7 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)
Download or read book Speculative Attacks written by Mr.Guillermo Calvo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-01-01 with total page 7 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A brief survey of the literature on speculative attacks is provided. The nature and causes of balance-of-payments crises, the implications for the behavior of the current account and the real exchange rate are discussed. Also, potential areas for future research on balance-of-payments crises are suggested.
Author : Maurice Obstfeld
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 17 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (116 download)
Download or read book Balance-of-payments Crises and Devaluation written by Maurice Obstfeld and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The collapse of a fixed exchange rate is typically marked by a sudden balance-of-payments crisis in which"speculators" fleeing from the domestic currency acquire a large portion of the central bank's foreign exchange holdings.Faced with such an attack, the central bank often withdraws temporarily from the foreign exchange market, allowing the exchange rate to float freely before devaluing and returning to a fixed-rate regime. This paper links the timing of the initial speculative attack to the magnitude of the expected devaluation and to the length of the transitional period off loating. An implication of the analysis is that there exist devaluations so sharp and transition periods so short that acrisis must occur the moment the market first learns that the current exchange parity will eventually be altered. For sufficiently long transition periods, the floating exchange rate"overshoots" its new peg before appreciating back toward it; for shorter periods, the rate depreciates monotonically to its new fixed level. Accordingly, the central bank's return tothe foreign exchange market can occasion a capital outflow or a capital inflow
Author : Robert P. Flood
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262061698
Total Pages : 528 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (616 download)
Download or read book Speculative Bubbles, Speculative Attacks, and Policy Switching written by Robert P. Flood and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1994 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The papers in this book are grouped into three sections: the first on price bubbles is primarily financial; the second on speculative attacks (on exchange rate regimes) is international in scope; and the third, on policy switching, is concerned with monetary policy.
Author : Ms.Inci Ötker
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451853548
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book Speculative Attacks and Currency Crises written by Ms.Inci Ötker and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1995-11-01 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates a speculative attack model of currency crises in order to identify the role of economic fundamentals and any early warning signals of a potential currency crisis. The data from the Mexican economy was used to illustrate the model. Based on the results, a deterioration in fundamentals appears to have generated high one-step-ahead probabilities for the regime changes during the sample period 1982-1994. Particularly, increases in inflation differentials, appreciations of the real exchange rate, foreign reserve losses, expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, and increases in the share of short-term foreign currency debt appear to have contributed to the market pressures and regime changes in that period.
Author : Herminio Blanco
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 66 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso written by Herminio Blanco and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Nikola A. Tarashev
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Speculative Attacks, Private Signals and Intertemporal Trade-offs written by Nikola A. Tarashev and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mr.Robert P. Flood
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451843364
Total Pages : 12 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book Policy Implications of "Second-Generation" Crisis Models written by Mr.Robert P. Flood and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-02-01 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After the speculative attacks on government-controlled exchange rates in Europe and in Mexico, economists began to develop models of currency crises with multiple solutions. In these models, a currency crisis occurs when the economy suddenly jumps from one solution to another. This paper examines one of the new models, finding that raising the cost of devaluation may make a crisis more likely. Consequently, slow convergence to a monetary union, which increases the cost to the government of reneging on an exchange rate peg, may be counterproductive. This conclusion is exactly the opposite of that obtained from earlier models.
Author : Mr.Alessandro Prati
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451857373
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book Soft Exchange Rate Bands and Speculative Attacks written by Mr.Alessandro Prati and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-11-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present a model of a “soft” exchange rate target zone and interpret it as a stylized description of the post-August 1993 ERM. Our central bank targets a moving average of the current and past exchange rates, rather than the exchange rate’s current level, thus allowing the rate to move within wide margins in the short run, but within narrow margins in the long run. For realistic parameters, soft target zones are significantly less vulnerable to speculative attacks than “hard” target zones. These predictions are consistent with the ERM’s experience and the abatement of speculative pressure in European markets since the bands’ widening in 1993.
Author : Anja Zenker
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3658048298
Total Pages : 142 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (58 download)
Download or read book Currency Speculation in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes written by Anja Zenker and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2014-01-08 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Speculative currency crises seem to have become a common and inevitable phenomenon in the international monetary system. Against this background, various approaches have been developed by economists to cover the broad range of situations in which balance-of-payments crises occurred. Anja Zenker provides a comprehensive insight into the body of theoretical and empirical literature about currency speculation in fixed exchange rate regimes. The author discusses different generations of theoretical models and their empirical relevance in recent currency crises. Moreover, she considers diverse policy options which attempt to avoid speculative attacks on exchange rate pegs.
Author : Subir Lall
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Speculative Attacks, Forward Market Intervention and the Classic Bear Squeeze written by Subir Lall and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-12 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A typical strategy used by speculators to launch an attack on a fixed exchange regime is the use of forward markets. Central banks also intervene in forward markets to counter speculation. This paper addresses the question of how an attack is launched on the forward market, and what the optimal policy response to such speculation is in the forward and spot markets. The paper also demonstrates how central banks can impose a bear squeeze on speculators. Recent events in South East Asian currency markets are interpreted within the framework of the model’s predictions.
Author : Craig Burnside
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 62 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book On the Fundamentals of Self-fulfilling Speculative Attacks written by Craig Burnside and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a theory of twin banking-currency crises in which both fundamentals and self-fulfilling beliefs play crucial roles. Fundamentals determine whether crises will occur. Self-fulfilling beliefs determine when they occur. The fundamental that causes twin crises' is government guarantees to domestic banks' foreign creditors. When these guarantees are in place twin crises inevitably occur, but their timing is a multiple equilibrium phenomenon that depends on agents' beliefs. So while self-fulfilling beliefs have an important role to play, twin crises do not happen just anywhere. They happen in countries where there are fundamental problems - problems such as guarantees to the financial sector.
