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Defaultable Debt Interest Rates And The Current Account
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Book Synopsis The Dynamics of Sovereign Debt Crises and Bailouts by : Mr.Francisco Roch
Download or read book The Dynamics of Sovereign Debt Crises and Bailouts written by Mr.Francisco Roch and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-06 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Motivated by the recent European debt crisis, this paper investigates the scope for a bailout guarantee in a sovereign debt crisis. Defaults may arise from negative income shocks, government impatience or a "sunspot"-coordinated buyers strike. We introduce a bailout agency, and characterize the minimal actuarially fair intervention that guarantees the no-buyers-strike fundamental equilibrium, relying on the market for residual financing. The intervention makes it cheaper for governments to borrow, inducing them borrow more, leaving default probabilities possibly rather unchanged. The maximal backstop will be pulled precisely when fundamentals worsen.
Book Synopsis Defaultable Debt, Interest Rates and the Current Account by : Mark Aguiar
Download or read book Defaultable Debt, Interest Rates and the Current Account written by Mark Aguiar and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "World capital markets have experienced large scale sovereign defaults on a number of occasions, the most recent being Argentina's default in 2002. In this paper we develop a quantitative model of debt and default in a small open economy. We use this model to match four empirical regularities regarding emerging markets: defaults occur in equilibrium, interest rates are countercyclical, net exports are countercyclical, and interest rates and the current account are positively correlated. That is, emerging markets on average borrow more in good times and at lower interest rates as compared to slumps. Our ability to match these facts within the framework of an otherwise standard business cycle model with endogenous default relies on the importance of a stochastic trend in emerging markets"--NBER website
Book Synopsis Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy by : Alberto Cavallo
Download or read book Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy written by Alberto Cavallo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-11-01 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use micro data collected at the border and at retailers to characterize the effects brought by recent changes in US trade policy - particularly the tariffs placed on imports from China - on importers, consumers, and exporters. We start by documenting that the tariffs were almost fully passed through to total prices paid by importers, suggesting the tariffs' incidence has fallen largely on the United States. Since we estimate the response of prices to exchange rates to be far more muted, the recent depreciation of the Chinese renminbi is unlikely to alter this conclusion. Next, using product-level data from several large multi-national retailers, we demonstrate that the impact of the tariffs on retail prices is more mixed. Some affected product categories have seen sharp price increases, but the difference between affected and unaffected products is generally quite modest, suggesting that retail margins have fallen. These retailers' imports increased after the initial announcement of possible tariffs, but before their full implementation, so the intermediate passthrough of tariffs to their prices may not persist. Finally, in contrast to the case of foreign exporters facing US tariffs, we show that US exporters lowered their prices on goods subjected to foreign retaliatory tariffs compared to exports of non-targeted goods.
Book Synopsis Global Waves of Debt by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Book Synopsis International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards by :
Download or read book International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards written by and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2004 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Dominant Currency Paradigm: A New Model for Small Open Economies by : Camila Casas
Download or read book Dominant Currency Paradigm: A New Model for Small Open Economies written by Camila Casas and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-22 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.
Book Synopsis This Time Is Different by : Carmen M. Reinhart
Download or read book This Time Is Different written by Carmen M. Reinhart and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-08-07 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An empirical investigation of financial crises during the last 800 years.
Book Synopsis Banks, Government Bonds, and Default by : Nicola Gennaioli
Download or read book Banks, Government Bonds, and Default written by Nicola Gennaioli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-08 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze holdings of public bonds by over 20,000 banks in 191 countries, and the role of these bonds in 20 sovereign defaults over 1998-2012. Banks hold many public bonds (on average 9% of their assets), particularly in less financially-developed countries. During sovereign defaults, banks increase their exposure to public bonds, especially large banks and when expected bond returns are high. At the bank level, bondholdings correlate negatively with subsequent lending during sovereign defaults. This correlation is mostly due to bonds acquired in pre-default years. These findings shed light on alternative theories of the sovereign default-banking crisis nexus.
Book Synopsis A General Equilibrium Model of Sovereign Default and Business Cycles by : Vivian Z. Yue
Download or read book A General Equilibrium Model of Sovereign Default and Business Cycles written by Vivian Z. Yue and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-07-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Emerging markets business cycle models treat default risk as part of an exogenous interest rate on working capital, while sovereign default models treat income fluctuations as an exogenous endowment process with ad-noc default costs. We propose instead a general equilibrium model of both sovereign default and business cycles. In the model, some imported inputs require working capital financing; default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around default triggers an efficiency loss as these inputs are replaced by imperfect substitutes; and default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around deraults, countercyclical spreads, high debt ratios, and key business cycle moments.
Book Synopsis The Economics of Sovereign Debt and Default by : Mark Aguiar
Download or read book The Economics of Sovereign Debt and Default written by Mark Aguiar and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2021-12-21 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An integrated approach to the economics of sovereign default Fiscal crises and sovereign default repeatedly threaten the stability and growth of economies around the world. Mark Aguiar and Manuel Amador provide a unified and tractable theoretical framework that elucidates the key economics behind sovereign debt markets, shedding light on the frictions and inefficiencies that prevent the smooth functioning of these markets, and proposing sensible approaches to sovereign debt management. The Economics of Sovereign Debt and Default looks at the core friction unique to sovereign debt—the lack of strong legal enforcement—and goes on to examine additional frictions such as deadweight costs of default, vulnerability to runs, the incentive to “dilute” existing creditors, and sovereign debt’s distortion of investment and growth. The book uses the tractable framework to isolate how each additional friction affects the equilibrium outcome, and illustrates its counterpart using state-of-the-art computational modeling. The novel approach presented here contrasts the outcome of a constrained efficient allocation—one chosen to maximize the joint surplus of creditors and government—with the competitive equilibrium outcome. This allows for a clear analysis of the extent to which equilibrium prices efficiently guide the government’s debt and default decisions, and of what drives divergences with the efficient outcome. Providing an integrated approach to sovereign debt and default, this incisive and authoritative book is an ideal resource for researchers and graduate students interested in this important topic.
Book Synopsis Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) by : Andreas Jobst
Download or read book Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) written by Andreas Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-10 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More than two years ago the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) to achieve its price stability objective. Negative interest rates have so far supported easier financial conditions and contributed to a modest expansion in credit, demonstrating that the zero lower bound is less binding than previously thought. However, interest rate cuts also weigh on bank profitability. Substantial rate cuts may at some point outweigh the benefits from higher asset values and stronger aggregate demand. Further monetary accommodation may need to rely more on credit easing and an expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet rather than substantial additional reductions in the policy rate.
Book Synopsis Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets by : Sebastian Edwards
Download or read book Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets written by Sebastian Edwards and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2002-11-15 with total page 782 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists and policymakers are still trying to understand the lessons recent financial crises in Asia and other emerging market countries hold for the future of the global financial system. In this timely and important volume, distinguished academics, officials in multilateral organizations, and public and private sector economists explore the causes of and effective policy responses to international currency crises. Topics covered include exchange rate regimes, contagion (transmission of currency crises across countries), the current account of the balance of payments, the role of private sector investors and of speculators, the reaction of the official sector (including the multilaterals), capital controls, bank supervision and weaknesses, and the roles of cronyism, corruption, and large players (including hedge funds). Ably balancing detailed case studies, cross-country comparisons, and theoretical concerns, this book will make a major contribution to ongoing efforts to understand and prevent international currency crises.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomics for Professionals by : Leslie Lipschitz
Download or read book Macroeconomics for Professionals written by Leslie Lipschitz and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-01-23 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding macroeconomic developments and policies in the twenty-first century is daunting: policy-makers face the combined challenges of supporting economic activity and employment, keeping inflation low and risks of financial crises at bay, and navigating the ever-tighter linkages of globalization. Many professionals face demands to evaluate the implications of developments and policies for their business, financial, or public policy decisions. Macroeconomics for Professionals provides a concise, rigorous, yet intuitive framework for assessing a country's macroeconomic outlook and policies. Drawing on years of experience at the International Monetary Fund, Leslie Lipschitz and Susan Schadler have created an operating manual for professional applied economists and all those required to evaluate economic analysis.
Book Synopsis The Liquidation of Government Debt by : Ms.Carmen Reinhart
Download or read book The Liquidation of Government Debt written by Ms.Carmen Reinhart and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-21 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: High public debt often produces the drama of default and restructuring. But debt is also reduced through financial repression, a tax on bondholders and savers via negative or belowmarket real interest rates. After WWII, capital controls and regulatory restrictions created a captive audience for government debt, limiting tax-base erosion. Financial repression is most successful in liquidating debt when accompanied by inflation. For the advanced economies, real interest rates were negative 1⁄2 of the time during 1945–1980. Average annual interest expense savings for a 12—country sample range from about 1 to 5 percent of GDP for the full 1945–1980 period. We suggest that, once again, financial repression may be part of the toolkit deployed to cope with the most recent surge in public debt in advanced economies.
Book Synopsis Serial Sovereign Defaults and Debt Restructurings by : Mr.Tamon Asonuma
Download or read book Serial Sovereign Defaults and Debt Restructurings written by Mr.Tamon Asonuma and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-21 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Emerging countries that have defaulted on their debt repayment obligations in the past are more likely to default again in the future than are non-defaulters even with the same external debt-to-GDP ratio. These countries actually have repeated defaults or restructurings in short periods. This paper explains these stylized facts within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework by explicitly modeling renegotiations between a defaulting country and its creditors. The quantitative analysis of the model reveals that the equilibrium probability of default for a given debt-to-GDP level is weakly increasing with the number of past defaults. The model also accords with an additional fact: lower recovery rates (high NPV haircuts) are associated with increases in spreads at renegotiation.
Book Synopsis Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises by : Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti
Download or read book Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises written by Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-06-01 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies large reductions in current account deficits and exchange rate depreciations in low- and middle-income countries. It examines which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance. Both domestic factors, such as the low reserves, and external factors, such as unfavorable terms of trade, are found to trigger reversals and currency crises. The two types of events are, however, distinct; an exchange rate crash is associated with a fall in output growth and a recovery thereafter, while for reversals there is no systematic evidence of a growth slowdown.
Book Synopsis Access to Financial Services by : Stijn Claessens
Download or read book Access to Financial Services written by Stijn Claessens and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper reviews the evidence on the importance of finance for economic well-being, provides data on the degree of use of basic financial services by households and firms across a sample of countries, assesses the desirability of more universal access, and overviews the macroeconomic, legal, and regulatory obstacles to access using general evidence and case studies. Although access to finance can be very beneficial, the data show that universal use is far from prevalent in many countries, especially developing countries. At the same time, universal access has generally not been a public policy objective and is surely not easily achievable in most countries.
