Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498319327
Total Pages : 20 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines by : Mr.Si Guo

Download or read book Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines written by Mr.Si Guo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-12 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation rates rose sharply in the Philippines during 2018. Understanding the demand and supply sources of inflation pressures is key to monetary policy response. Qualitatively, indicators have pointed to evidence of inflation pressures from both sides in 2018, with the supply factors, by and large, associated with commodity-price shocks and demand factors deduced from gleaning at the wider non-oil trade deficits seen in the Philippines. Quantitatively, we deploy a semi-structural model to decompose the contributions of various shocks to inflation. Our main findings are (1) supply factors (mainly global commodity prices) played a prominent role in explaining the rise in inflation in 2018; (2) demand factors also contributed to inflation in a non-negligible way, justifying the need for tighter monetary policy in 2018; (3) the size of the estimated output gap (an important indicator of demand pressures) could be larger, when considering the widening trade deficits in 2018; and (4) a delayed monetary policy tightening can be costly in terms of higher inflation rates, requiring larger and more aggressive interest rate hikes to bring inflation under control, based on a counterfactual exercise.

Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513508016
Total Pages : 20 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines by : Mr.Si Guo

Download or read book Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines written by Mr.Si Guo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-12 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation rates rose sharply in the Philippines during 2018. Understanding the demand and supply sources of inflation pressures is key to monetary policy response. Qualitatively, indicators have pointed to evidence of inflation pressures from both sides in 2018, with the supply factors, by and large, associated with commodity-price shocks and demand factors deduced from gleaning at the wider non-oil trade deficits seen in the Philippines. Quantitatively, we deploy a semi-structural model to decompose the contributions of various shocks to inflation. Our main findings are (1) supply factors (mainly global commodity prices) played a prominent role in explaining the rise in inflation in 2018; (2) demand factors also contributed to inflation in a non-negligible way, justifying the need for tighter monetary policy in 2018; (3) the size of the estimated output gap (an important indicator of demand pressures) could be larger, when considering the widening trade deficits in 2018; and (4) a delayed monetary policy tightening can be costly in terms of higher inflation rates, requiring larger and more aggressive interest rate hikes to bring inflation under control, based on a counterfactual exercise.

A Monetary and Financial Policy Analysis and Forecasting Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0)

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 116 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis A Monetary and Financial Policy Analysis and Forecasting Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0) by : Francisco G. Dakila Jr.

Download or read book A Monetary and Financial Policy Analysis and Forecasting Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0) written by Francisco G. Dakila Jr. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-07-12 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has enhanced its macroeconomic modeling through the Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS), transitioning from a multi-equation econometric model to a modernized system centered on the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). In its new version, the Policy Analysis Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0) integrates forward-looking projections, endogenous monetary policy, fiscal and macroprudential considerations, labor dynamics, and addresses complex shocks and policy trade-offs, facilitating effective policy mix determination and supporting real-time policy evaluation. The BSP’s modernization efforts also include refining forecast calendars and strengthening communication channels to accommodate the operationalization of PAMPh2.0. Detailed validation methods ensure empirical consistency. Finally, future refinements will align the model with evolving empirical findings and theoretical insights, ensuring its continued relevance.

An Extended Quarterly Projection Model: Credit Cycle, Macrofinancial Linkages and Macroprudential Measures: The Case of the Philippines

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1589068718
Total Pages : 45 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis An Extended Quarterly Projection Model: Credit Cycle, Macrofinancial Linkages and Macroprudential Measures: The Case of the Philippines by : Mr. Philippe D Karam

Download or read book An Extended Quarterly Projection Model: Credit Cycle, Macrofinancial Linkages and Macroprudential Measures: The Case of the Philippines written by Mr. Philippe D Karam and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-22 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We extend a modern practical Quarterly Projection Model to study credit cycle dynamics and risks, focusing on macrofinancial linkages and the role of macroprudential policy in achieving economic and financial stability. We tailor the model to the Philippines and evaluate the model’s properties along several dimensions. The model produces plausible dynamics and sensible forecasts. This along with its simplicity makes it useful for policy analysis. In particular, it should help policymakers understand the quantitative implications of responding to changes in domestic financial conditions, along with other shocks, through the joint use of macroprudential and monetary policies.

Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484363043
Total Pages : 37 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies by : Geraldine Dany-Knedlik

Download or read book Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies written by Geraldine Dany-Knedlik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-21 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the evolution of inflation dynamics in the five largest ASEAN countries between 1997 and 2017. To account for changes in the monetary policy frameworks since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), the analysis is based on country-specific Phillips curves allowing for time-varying parameters. The paper finds evidence of a higher degree of forward-looking dynamics and a better anchoring of inflation expectations, consistent with the improvements in monetary policy frameworks in the region. In contrast, the quantitative impact of cyclical fluctuations and import prices has gradually diminished over time.

Hysteresis and Business Cycles

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513536990
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra

Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time?

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 151352786X
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? by : Mr.Jiaqian Chen

Download or read book Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? written by Mr.Jiaqian Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-07 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.

Explaining Inflation in Colombia: A Disaggregated Phillips Curve Approach

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484356314
Total Pages : 29 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Explaining Inflation in Colombia: A Disaggregated Phillips Curve Approach by : Mr.Sergi Lanau

Download or read book Explaining Inflation in Colombia: A Disaggregated Phillips Curve Approach written by Mr.Sergi Lanau and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-05-10 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study inflation dynamics in Colombia using a bottom-up Phillips curve approach. This allows us to capture the different drivers of individual inflation components. We find that the Phillips curve is relatively flat in Colombia but steeper than recent estimates for the U.S. Supply side shocks play an important role for tradable and food prices, while indexation dynamics are important for non-tradable goods. We show that besides allowing for a more detailed understanding of inflation drivers, the bottom-up approach also improves on an aggregate Phillips curve in terms of forecasting ability. In the baseline forecast scenario, both headline and core inflation converge towards the Central Bank’s inflation target of 3 percent by end-2018 but these favorable inflation dynamics are vulnerable to large supply shocks.

Dissecting Taylor Rules in a Structural VAR

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451918682
Total Pages : 29 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)

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Book Synopsis Dissecting Taylor Rules in a Structural VAR by : Woon Gyu Choi

Download or read book Dissecting Taylor Rules in a Structural VAR written by Woon Gyu Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uncovers Taylor rules from estimated monetary policy reactions using a structural VAR on U.S. data from 1959 to 2009. These Taylor rules reveal the dynamic nature of policy responses to different structural shocks. We find that U.S. monetary policy has been far more responsive over time to demand shocks than to supply shocks, and more aggressive toward inflation than output growth. Our estimated dynamic policy coefficients characterize the style of policy as a "bang-bang" control for the pre-1979 period and as a gradual control for the post-1979 period.

Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451875657
Total Pages : 68 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations by : Mr.Pau Rabanal

Download or read book Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-12-01 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.

Asset Price Bubbles

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Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262582537
Total Pages : 650 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (825 download)

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Book Synopsis Asset Price Bubbles by : William Curt Hunter

Download or read book Asset Price Bubbles written by William Curt Hunter and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2005 with total page 650 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A study of asset price bubbles and the implications for preventing financial instability.

Exporting Through Intermediaries: Impact on Export Dynamics and Welfare

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513519875
Total Pages : 58 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Exporting Through Intermediaries: Impact on Export Dynamics and Welfare by : Parisa Kamali

Download or read book Exporting Through Intermediaries: Impact on Export Dynamics and Welfare written by Parisa Kamali and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-12-27 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In many countries, a sizable share of international trade is carried out by intermediaries. While large firms tend to export to foreign markets directly, smaller firms typically export via intermediaries (indirect exporting). I document a set of facts that characterize the dynamic nature of indirect exporting using firm-level data from Vietnam and develop a dynamic trade model with both direct and indirect exporting modes and customer accumulation. The model is calibrated to match the dynamic moments of the data. The calibration yields fixed costs of indirect exporting that are less than a third of those of direct exporting, the variable costs of indirect exporting are twice higher, and demand for the indirectly exported products grows more slowly. Decomposing the gains from indirect and direct exporting, I find that 18 percent of the gains from trade in Vietnam are generated by indirect exporters. Finally, I demonstrate that a dynamic model that excludes the indirect exporting channel will overstate the welfare gains associated with trade liberalization by a factor of two.

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States

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Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 0521144078
Total Pages : 193 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (211 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States by : U.S. Global Change Research Program

Download or read book Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States written by U.S. Global Change Research Program and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-08-24 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Summarizes the science of climate change and impacts on the United States, for the public and policymakers.

Inflation Targeting

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Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691187398
Total Pages : 393 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Targeting by : Ben S. Bernanke

Download or read book Inflation Targeting written by Ben S. Bernanke and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2018-06-05 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How should governments and central banks use monetary policy to create a healthy economy? Traditionally, policymakers have used such strategies as controlling the growth of the money supply or pegging the exchange rate to a stable currency. In recent years a promising new approach has emerged: publicly announcing and pursuing specific targets for the rate of inflation. This book is the first in-depth study of inflation targeting. Combining penetrating theoretical analysis with detailed empirical studies of countries where inflation targeting has been adopted, the authors show that the strategy has clear advantages over traditional policies. They argue that the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank should adopt this strategy, and they make specific proposals for doing so. The book begins by explaining the unique features and advantages of inflation targeting. The authors argue that the simplicity and openness of inflation targeting make it far easier for the public to understand the intent and effects of monetary policy. This strategy also increases policymakers' accountability for inflation performance and can accommodate flexible, even "discretionary," monetary policy actions without sacrificing central banks' credibility. The authors examine how well variants of this approach have worked in nine countries: Germany and Switzerland (which employ a money-focused form of inflation targeting), New Zealand, Canada, the United Kingdom, Sweden, Israel, Spain, and Australia. They show that these countries have typically seen lower inflation, lower inflation expectations, and lower nominal interest rates, and have found that one-time shocks to the price level have less of a "pass-through" effect on inflation. These effects, in turn, are improving the climate for economic growth. The authors warn, however, that the success of inflation targeting depends on operational details, such as how the targets are defined and when they are announced. They also show that inflation targeting is not a panacea that can make inflation perfectly predictable or reduce it without economic costs. Clear, balanced, and authoritative, Inflation Targeting is a groundbreaking study that will have a major impact on the debate over the right monetary strategy for the coming decades. As a unique comparative study of what central banks actually do in different countries around the world, this book will also be invaluable to anyone interested in how economic policy is made.

Contesting the Philippines

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Publisher : ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute
ISBN 13 : 9815104926
Total Pages : 313 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (151 download)

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Book Synopsis Contesting the Philippines by : Steven Rood

Download or read book Contesting the Philippines written by Steven Rood and published by ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. This book was released on 2024-05-09 with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Duterte administration (2016–22) marked the return of an authoritarian style of rule in the Philippines. It was also accompanied by an economic recovery that was better than many expected, at least until the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Both during and following the Duterte period, the country was buffeted by a series of internal and external shocks that called into question the state’s legal and social policy contract with its citizens. This period of “contesting the Philippines” was an intense, normative and practical struggle to shape (or reshape) some of the Philippines’ most critical institutions: the Constitution, the presidency, the Supreme Court and the rule of law, the free press, regional autonomy and independent regulatory institutions. These developments energized many domestic policy actors: technocrats, the business sector, civil society organizations, the police and the military, armed groups and religious leaders across the spectrum of Filipino politics. This volume considers some key sites of contestation between and among domestic policy actors, including the executive, during this eventful period for political and legal institutions in the Philippines.

Saudi Arabia

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513513494
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Saudi Arabia by : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Download or read book Saudi Arabia written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-09 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper explores policies to drive diversification for Saudi Arabia. Diversification is needed to create jobs for Saudis and to mitigate the impact of uncertainty in oil markets. Although the business climate should be improved, and remaining infrastructure gaps addressed, reforms need to go beyond these areas. Diversification in Saudi Arabia that creates jobs for nationals could be held back by the effects of relatively high wages and their impact on cost competitiveness. Creative solutions are needed to address the impact of high government wages and employment on competitiveness. Industrial policy could help overcome the incentives that encourage companies to focus on the nontradable sector, but should be handled carefully, keeping lessons from other countries’ experiences in mind. Export orientation and competition are crucial mechanisms to ensure discipline. Strengthening human capital to raise productivity and provide workers with the skills needed in the private sector will be essential to success.

Global Economic Prospects, January 2019

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Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464813868
Total Pages : 470 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Economic Prospects, January 2019 by : World Bank Group

Download or read book Global Economic Prospects, January 2019 written by World Bank Group and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-12 with total page 470 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The outlook for the global economy has darkened. Global financing conditions have tightened, industrial production has moderated, trade tensions have intensified, and some large emerging market and developing economies have experienced significant financial market stress. Faced with these headwinds, the recovery in emerging market and developing economies has lost momentum. Downside risks have become more acute and include the possibility of disorderly financial market movements and an escalation of trade disputes. Debt vulnerabilities in emerging market and developing economies, particularly low-income countries, have increased. More frequent severe weather events would raise the possibility of large swings in international food prices, which could deepen poverty. In this difficult environment, it is of paramount importance for emerging market and developing economies to rebuild policy buffers while laying a stronger foundation for future growth by boosting human capital, promoting trade integration, and addressing the challenges associated with informality,