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Decisions With Several Objectives Under Uncertainty
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Book Synopsis Decisions with Multiple Objectives by : Ralph L. Keeney
Download or read book Decisions with Multiple Objectives written by Ralph L. Keeney and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1993-07 with total page 596 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes how a confused decision maker, who wishes to make a reasonable and responsible choice among alternatives, can systematically probe their thoughts and feelings in order to make the critically important trade-offs between incommensurable objectives.
Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Book Synopsis Objectives and Multi-Objective Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : J. Wilhelm
Download or read book Objectives and Multi-Objective Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by J. Wilhelm and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Objectives and Multi-Objective Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : J. Wilhelm
Download or read book Objectives and Multi-Objective Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by J. Wilhelm and published by Springer. This book was released on 2012-03-02 with total page 113 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Multi-objective Decision Analysis by : Clinton W. Brownley
Download or read book Multi-objective Decision Analysis written by Clinton W. Brownley and published by Business Expert Press. This book was released on 2013-03-28 with total page 167 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Whether managing strategy, operations or products, knowing how to make the best decision in a complex, uncertain business environment is difficult. You might be faced with multiple, competing objectives, which means making trade-offs. To complicate matters, any uncertainty makes it hard to explicitly understand how different objectives will impact potential outcomes. This book will help you face these problems. It provides a decision analysis framework implemented as a simple spreadsheet tool. This multi-objective decision analysis framework helps you to measure trade-offs among objectives and incorporate uncertainties and risk preferences. With this book, you will be able to identify what information is needed to make a decision, define how that information should be combined, and, finally, provide quantifiable evidence to clearly communicate and justify the decision. The process involves minimal overhead and is perfect for busy professionals who need a simple, structured process for making, tracking, and communicating decisions. This process makes decision making more efficient by focusing only on information and factors that are well-defined, measureable, and relevant to the decision at hand. The framework requires clear characterization of a decision, ensuring that it can be traced and is consistent with the intended objectives and organizational values. Using this structured decision-making framework, anyone can consistently make better decisions to gain competitive and strategic advantage.
Book Synopsis Improving Homeland Security Decisions by : Ali E. Abbas
Download or read book Improving Homeland Security Decisions written by Ali E. Abbas and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-11-02 with total page 787 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Are we safer from terrorism today and is our homeland security money well spent? This book offers answers and more.
Book Synopsis Objectives and Multi-objective Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Jochen Wilhelm
Download or read book Objectives and Multi-objective Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Jochen Wilhelm and published by Springer. This book was released on 1975 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Interactive Multiobjective Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Hitoshi Yano
Download or read book Interactive Multiobjective Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Hitoshi Yano and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-02-03 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recently, many books on multiobjective programming have been published. However, only a few books have been published, in which multiobjective programming under the randomness and the fuzziness are investigated. On the other hand, several books on multilevel programming have been published, in which multiple decision makers are involved in hierarchical decision situations. In this book, we introduce the latest advances in the field of multiobjective programming and multilevel programming under uncertainty. The reader can immediately use proposed methods to solve multiobjective programming and multilevel programming, which are based on linear programming or convex programming technique. Organization of each capter is summarized as follows. In Chapter 2, multiobjective programming problems with random variables are formulated, and the corresponding interactive algorithms are developed to obtain a satisfactory solution, in which the fuzziness of human's subjective judgment for permission levels are considered. In Chapter 3, multiobjective programming problems with fuzzy random variables are formulated, and the corresponding interactive algorithms are developed to obtain a satisfactory solution, in which not only the uncertainty of fuzzy random variables but also the fuzziness of human's subjective judgment for permission levels are considered. In Chapter 4, multiobjective multilevel programming is discussed, and the interactive algorithms are developed to obtain a satisfactory solution, in which the hierarchical decision structure of multiple decision makers is reflected. In Chapter 5, two kinds of farm planning problems are solved by applying the proposed method, in which cost coefficients of crops are expressed by random variables.
Book Synopsis Completing the Forecast by : National Research Council
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Book Synopsis Multiple Objective Decision Making — Methods and Applications by : C.-L. Hwang
Download or read book Multiple Objective Decision Making — Methods and Applications written by C.-L. Hwang and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision making is the process of selecting a possible course of action from all the available alternatives. In almost all such problems the multiplicity of criteria for judging the alternatives is pervasive. That is, for many such problems, the decision maker (OM) wants to attain more than one objective or goal in selecting the course of action while satisfying the constraints dictated by environment, processes, and resources. Another characteristic of these problems is that the objectives are apparently non commensurable. Mathematically, these problems can be represented as: (1. 1 ) subject to: gi(~) ~ 0, ,', . . . ,. ! where ~ is an n dimensional decision variable vector. The problem consists of n decision variables, m constraints and k objectives. Any or all of the functions may be nonlinear. In literature this problem is often referred to as a vector maximum problem (VMP). Traditionally there are two approaches for solving the VMP. One of them is to optimize one of the objectives while appending the other objectives to a constraint set so that the optimal solution would satisfy these objectives at least up to a predetermined level. The problem is given as: Max f. ~) 1 (1. 2) subject to: where at is any acceptable predetermined level for objective t. The other approach is to optimize a super-objective function created by multiplying each 2 objective function with a suitable weight and then by adding them together.
Book Synopsis Rough Multiple Objective Decision Making by : Jiuping Xu
Download or read book Rough Multiple Objective Decision Making written by Jiuping Xu and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2011-07-28 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Under intense scrutiny for the last few decades, Multiple Objective Decision Making (MODM) has been useful for dealing with the multiple-criteria decisions and planning problems associated with many important applications in fields including management science, engineering design, and transportation. Rough set theory has also proved to be an effective mathematical tool to counter the vague description of objects in fields such as artificial intelligence, expert systems, civil engineering, medical data analysis, data mining, pattern recognition, and decision theory. Rough Multiple Objective Decision Making is perhaps the first book to combine state-of-the-art application of rough set theory, rough approximation techniques, and MODM. It illustrates traditional techniques—and some that employ simulation-based intelligent algorithms—to solve a wide range of realistic problems. Application of rough theory can remedy two types of uncertainty (randomness and fuzziness) which present significant drawbacks to existing decision-making methods, so the authors illustrate the use of rough sets to approximate the feasible set, and they explore use of rough intervals to demonstrate relative coefficients and parameters involved in bi-level MODM. The book reviews relevant literature and introduces models for both random and fuzzy rough MODM, applying proposed models and algorithms to problem solutions. Given the broad range of uses for decision making, the authors offer background and guidance for rough approximation to real-world problems, with case studies that focus on engineering applications, including construction site layout planning, water resource allocation, and resource-constrained project scheduling. The text presents a general framework of rough MODM, including basic theory, models, and algorithms, as well as a proposed methodological system and discussion of future research.
Book Synopsis Optimal Decisions Under Uncertainty by : J.K. Sengupta
Download or read book Optimal Decisions Under Uncertainty written by J.K. Sengupta and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the stochastic enviornment is as much important to the manager as to the economist. From production and marketing to financial management, a manager has to assess various costs imposed by uncertainty. The economist analyzes the role of incomplete and too often imperfect information structures on the optimal decisions made by a firm. The need for understanding the role of uncertainty in quantitative decision models, both in economics and management science provide the basic motivation of this monograph. The stochastic environment is analyzed here in terms of the following specific models of optimization: linear and quadratic models, linear programming, control theory and dynamic programming. Uncertainty is introduced here through the para meters, the constraints, and the objective function and its impact evaluated. Specifically recent developments in applied research are emphasized, so that they can help the decision-maker arrive at a solution which has some desirable charac teristics like robustness, stability and cautiousness. Mathematical treatment is kept at a fairly elementary level and applied as pects are emphasized much more than theory. Moreover, an attempt is made to in corporate the economic theory of uncertainty into the stochastic theory of opera tions research. Methods of optimal decision rules illustrated he re are applicable in three broad areas: (a) applied economic models in resource allocation and economic planning, (b) operations research models involving portfolio analysis and stochastic linear programming and (c) systems science models in stochastic control and adaptive behavior.
Book Synopsis Decisions with Several Objectives Under Uncertainty by : Alfred Müller
Download or read book Decisions with Several Objectives Under Uncertainty written by Alfred Müller and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty by : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Book Synopsis Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis by : Salvatore Greco
Download or read book Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis written by Salvatore Greco and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-02-18 with total page 1356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In two volumes, this new edition presents the state of the art in Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). Reflecting the explosive growth in the field seen during the last several years, the editors not only present surveys of the foundations of MCDA, but look as well at many new areas and new applications. Individual chapter authors are among the most prestigious names in MCDA research, and combined their chapters bring the field completely up to date. Part I of the book considers the history and current state of MCDA, with surveys that cover the early history of MCDA and an overview that discusses the “pre-theoretical” assumptions of MCDA. Part II then presents the foundations of MCDA, with individual chapters that provide a very exhaustive review of preference modeling, along with a chapter devoted to the axiomatic basis of the different models that multiple criteria preferences. Part III looks at outranking methods, with three chapters that consider the ELECTRE methods, PROMETHEE methods, and a look at the rich literature of other outranking methods. Part IV, on Multiattribute Utility and Value Theories (MAUT), presents chapters on the fundamentals of this approach, the very well known UTA methods, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its more recent extension, the Analytic Network Process (ANP), as well as a chapter on MACBETH (Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique). Part V looks at Non-Classical MCDA Approaches, with chapters on risk and uncertainty in MCDA, the decision rule approach to MCDA, the fuzzy integral approach, the verbal decision methods, and a tentative assessment of the role of fuzzy sets in decision analysis. Part VI, on Multiobjective Optimization, contains chapters on recent developments of vector and set optimization, the state of the art in continuous multiobjective programming, multiobjective combinatorial optimization, fuzzy multicriteria optimization, a review of the field of goal programming, interactive methods for solving multiobjective optimization problems, and relationships between MCDA and evolutionary multiobjective optimization (EMO). Part VII, on Applications, selects some of the most significant areas, including contributions of MCDA in finance, energy planning problems, telecommunication network planning and design, sustainable development, and portfolio analysis. Finally, Part VIII, on MCDM software, presents well known MCDA software packages.
Book Synopsis Multiple Criteria Decision Making in Supply Chain Management by : A. Ravi Ravindran
Download or read book Multiple Criteria Decision Making in Supply Chain Management written by A. Ravi Ravindran and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-07-12 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Supply chain management decisions are made under the conflicting criteria of maximizing profit and customer responsiveness while minimizing supply chain risk. Multiple Criteria Decision Making in Supply Chain Management provides a comprehensive overview of multi-criteria optimization models and methods that can be used in supply chain decision making. Presenting the contributions of internationally known authors, researchers, educators, and practitioners, this new book in the Operations Research Series provides readers with a single source guide to recent developments in this area. The focus of the book is on the design and operation of the supply chain system, which involves connecting many production and distribution systems, often across wide geographic distances, in such a way that the businesses involved can ultimately satisfy the consumer demand as efficiently as possible, resulting in maximum financial returns to those businesses connected to that supply chain system. The book includes several case studies on the design and operation of supply chain networks in manufacturing and healthcare.
Book Synopsis Multiple Criteria Decision Methods and Applications by : Günter Fandel
Download or read book Multiple Criteria Decision Methods and Applications written by Günter Fandel and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Both the 'First International Summer School on Multiple Criteria Decision Making Methods, Applications and Software' and the present volume of readings could only be realised with assistance and support from many sides. We would like to express our gratitude to all those who have contributed to making a success of the first of a hopefully long series of summer schools in this field and to all those who have contribut. ed to the present volume. First of all we are grateful for the financial means supplied by a long list of sponsors, the most important of which are mentioned on the copyright page. Next, we are grateful to the members of the organising committee, Anna Ostanello and Giovanni Zambruno. Since this is the first of what will become a series of summer schools, the chairman of the organising committee, Benedetto Matarazzo, will start this volume with a brief account of the school held in Acireale. The programme committee consisted of Jean Fichefet, Anna Ostanello, Bernard Roy, Jaap Spronk (chairman) and Stanley Zionts. Their valuable contribu tion is gratefully acknowledged, as is the contribution of all the lecturers at the school. Of course, a school is not only made by its teachers, but just as much by its students. The primary aim of a school is to teach and to stimulate the students.
