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Author :
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 76 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)
Download or read book Risk and Decision Making written by and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1982-01-01 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Charles Yoe
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1439857504
Total Pages : 576 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (398 download)
Download or read book Principles of Risk Analysis written by Charles Yoe and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-04-19 with total page 576 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know-and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don't know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis i
Author : Mohammed Abdellaoui
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540684360
Total Pages : 245 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (46 download)
Download or read book Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty written by Mohammed Abdellaoui and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-08-29 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Whether we like it or not we all feel that the world is uncertain. From choosing a new technology to selecting a job, we rarely know in advance what outcome will result from our decisions. Unfortunately, the standard theory of choice under uncertainty developed in the early forties and fifties turns out to be too rigid to take many tricky issues of choice under uncertainty into account. The good news is that we have now moved away from the early descriptively inadequate modeling of behavior. This book brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the most recent contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. It also introduces the reader into the many subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.
Author : Jie Lu
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642257550
Total Pages : 454 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (422 download)
Download or read book Handbook on Decision Making written by Jie Lu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-03-15 with total page 454 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents innovative theories, methodologies, and techniques in the field of risk management and decision making. It introduces new research developments and provides a comprehensive image of their potential applications to readers interested in the area. The collection includes: computational intelligence applications in decision making, multi-criteria decision making under risk, risk modelling,forecasting and evaluation, public security and community safety, risk management in supply chain and other business decision making, political risk management and disaster response systems. The book is directed to academic and applied researchers working on risk management, decision making, and management information systems.
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309180538
Total Pages : 124 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309120462
Total Pages : 422 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Science and Decisions written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2009-03-24 with total page 422 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. However, risk assessment is at a crossroads. Despite advances in the field, risk assessment faces a number of significant challenges including lengthy delays in making complex decisions; lack of data leading to significant uncertainty in risk assessments; and many chemicals in the marketplace that have not been evaluated and emerging agents requiring assessment. Science and Decisions makes practical scientific and technical recommendations to address these challenges. This book is a complement to the widely used 1983 National Academies book, Risk Assessment in the Federal Government (also known as the Red Book). The earlier book established a framework for the concepts and conduct of risk assessment that has been adopted by numerous expert committees, regulatory agencies, and public health institutions. The new book embeds these concepts within a broader framework for risk-based decision-making. Together, these are essential references for those working in the regulatory and public health fields.
Author : Gary Wyatt
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 60 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Decision-making Under Conditions of Risk written by Gary Wyatt and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : In c. ABS Consulting
Publisher : Government Institutes
ISBN 13 : 0865879087
Total Pages : 225 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (658 download)
Download or read book Principles of Risk-Based Decision Making written by In c. ABS Consulting and published by Government Institutes. This book was released on 2002-02 with total page 225 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Principles of Risk-Based Decision Making provides managers with the foundation for creating a proactive organizational culture that systematically incorporates risk into key decision-making processes. Based on methodology adopted by a number of organizations including the federal government, this book examines risk-based decision making as a process for organizing information about the possibility for unwanted outcomes in a simple, practical way that helps decision makers make timely, informed management choices that minimize harmful effects on safety and health, the environment, property loss, or mission success. Citing practical examples, charts, and checklists, the authors break the risk-based decision making process into five key components: establishing the decision structure, performing the risk assessment, managing sufficient risks, monitoring effectiveness of adopted risk controls through impact assessment, and facilitating risk communication. They examine each component in detail and outline available decision analysis and risk assessment tools that aid in each of these risk-based decision making functions. This book also walks readers through eight project management steps—from scoping a risk assessment to evaluating the recommendations—the components of each, and the importance of these steps to the success of a risk assessment. Special features include a table for applying the risk-based decision-making process, a hazard identification guidesheet, an example of human error, an acronym list, and a glossary.
Author : Christopher O. Cox
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000416143
Total Pages : 125 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (4 download)
Download or read book Decision Making in Risk Management written by Christopher O. Cox and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2021-07-25 with total page 125 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Identifies the quantitative measures to assess behavior induced risks Presents a framework to limit the interpersonal tension of addressing behavioral risks Offers an empirical case study in the oil and gas domain demonstrating use of the framework Addresses the missing dimension of behavior-centric intangible risk factors in current risk identification and management processes Provides a systematic analytical approach to mitigate subjectivity when addressing behavioral risks in projects
Author : Glenn Koller
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1420035053
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)
Download or read book Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry written by Glenn Koller and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2005-03-30 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Building upon the technical and organizational groundwork presented in the first edition, Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry: A Practical Guide, Second Edition addresses the many aspects of risk/uncertainty (R/U) process implementation. This comprehensive volume covers four broad aspects of R/U: general concepts, i
Author : Charles Yoe
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 0429664877
Total Pages : 294 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (296 download)
Download or read book Primer on Risk Analysis written by Charles Yoe and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-01-18 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Primer on Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Second Edition lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner, tackling the question, "What is risk analysis?" Distilling the common principles of many risk dialects into serviceable definitions, it provides a foundation for the practice of risk management and decision making under uncertainty for professionals from all disciplines. New in this edition is an expanded risk management emphasis that includes an overview chapter on enterprise risk management and a chapter on decision making under uncertainty designed to help decision makers use the results of risk analysis in practical ways to improve decisions and their outcomes. This book will empower you to enter the world of risk management in your own domain of expertise by providing you with practical, insightful, useful and adaptable knowledge of risk analysis science including risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication. Features: Answers the fundamental question, "What is Risk Analysis?" Presents the tasks of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication in a straightforward, conceptual manner Responds to the continuing evolution of risk science and addresses the language of risk as it continues to evolve Expands the risk management emphasis with a new chapter to serve private industry and a growing public sector interest in the growing practice of enterprise risk management Includes a new chapter on decision making under uncertainty provides practical guidance and ideas for using risk science to improve decisions and their outcomes Features an expanded set of examples of the risk process that demonstrate the growing applications of risk analysis This book is suitable for executives, professionals and students who seek a fundamental understanding of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication. A more detailed examination of this topic, suitable for practitioners from any discipline as well as students and professionals who aspire to become experts in the practice of risk analysis science, is found in Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Second Edition, ISBN: 978-1-138-47820-6.
Author : Anthony J. Spurgin
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1498721230
Total Pages : 191 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (987 download)
Download or read book Decision-Making in High Risk Organizations Under Stress Conditions written by Anthony J. Spurgin and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-08-19 with total page 191 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses management decision-making under accident conditions as a vehicle to confirm the importance of clear decision-making guided by a systems approach on how an organization functions related to the role of managers, operators, and the operation of the plant. The book shows how to effectively assess the reliability of an organization particularly those organizations responsible for critical infrastructure. The authors have used Stafford Beer’s cybernetic model as a basis to model the behavior and reliability of such organizations. A series of case studies are used to draw conclusions not only how training, experience, and education can improve the strategy and response of management to reduce the probability of an economic or social disaster, but also draw attention to the fact that managers need to be made aware of the consequences of their decisions. Poor management decisions made under stress conditions can lead to the collapse of an organization together with its underlying business, possibly linked to a social disaster with loss of life. Some technology-ignorant management decisions even under non-stress conditions can lead to dangerous situations, which can increase the economic burden placed on an organization. This book describes such situations in order to promote improvement in organizational preparedness by training, experience, and education to reduce safety and economic risks. This book offers: • Case studies of accidents that have affected different HROs (high-risk organizations) and others, due to poor decision-making by management • Training methods (advocated by Admiral Hyman Rickover, adopted by military bodies and others) to prepare staff to make critical decisions under difficult conditions and examine their applicability to training managers of high-risk facilities • Documentation on how making decisions in difficult situations have psychological constraints related to the degree of preparedness and the tools available to aid the decision maker(s) • Studies on the key actions taken before, during, and after accidents and how these management decisions can affect accident propagation, and how one could improve management decision-making by the use of training in decision-making and an understanding of Ross Ashby’s Law of Requisite Variety. • Simulation techniques to improve training of front-line operators and management • Consideration of cost and investment evaluations and how they can distort the selection of tactics and measures that ensure successful operations and avoidance of accidents
Author : Rose McDermott
Publisher : University of Michigan Press
ISBN 13 : 9780472087877
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (878 download)
Download or read book Risk-Taking in International Politics written by Rose McDermott and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2001 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discusses the way leaders deal with risk in making foreign policy decisions
Author : K.J. Radford
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1475720688
Total Pages : 184 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)
Download or read book Individual and Small Group Decisions written by K.J. Radford and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ecision making is one of the most important activities in both our profes D sional and our private lives today. The literature on the subject has grown considerably over the last fifty years and it now covers many different approaches to the subject. These approaches range from that of creating a mathematical model of the decision situation under consideration, as in operations research and other forms of mathematical decision analysis, to those that are based on human and organizational behavior. Recently, those working in the field have begun to combine approaches to the study of decision situations that arise in organizations, in our personal lives and in the communities in which we live. This book is an attempt to assist those concerned with decision making to work with this combination of approaches. In the past, decision problems have been considered according to the condi tions under which they arise and to some extent in terms of the approaches available for their resolution. Writers on the subject who are mathematically oriented have devised a method of classifying decisions based on the type of mathematics that they suggest be used in the resolution of the problems. This approach leads to the division of decision situations into the categories of cer tainty, uncertainty, risk and competition. Deterministic models available in oper ations research have then been offered as the means of treating decision situations in the category of certainty.
Author : CHARLES. YOE
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781138545656
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (456 download)
Download or read book PRIMER OF RISK ANALYSIS written by CHARLES. YOE and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262331713
Total Pages : 350 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309160359
Total Pages : 400 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Proceedings of a Workshop on Deterring Cyberattacks written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-10-30 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a world of increasing dependence on information technology, the prevention of cyberattacks on a nation's important computer and communications systems and networks is a problem that looms large. Given the demonstrated limitations of passive cybersecurity defense measures, it is natural to consider the possibility that deterrence might play a useful role in preventing cyberattacks against the United States and its vital interests. At the request of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the National Research Council undertook a two-phase project aimed to foster a broad, multidisciplinary examination of strategies for deterring cyberattacks on the United States and of the possible utility of these strategies for the U.S. government. The first phase produced a letter report providing basic information needed to understand the nature of the problem and to articulate important questions that can drive research regarding ways of more effectively preventing, discouraging, and inhibiting hostile activity against important U.S. information systems and networks. The second phase of the project entailed selecting appropriate experts to write papers on questions raised in the letter report. A number of experts, identified by the committee, were commissioned to write these papers under contract with the National Academy of Sciences. Commissioned papers were discussed at a public workshop held June 10-11, 2010, in Washington, D.C., and authors revised their papers after the workshop. Although the authors were selected and the papers reviewed and discussed by the committee, the individually authored papers do not reflect consensus views of the committee, and the reader should view these papers as offering points of departure that can stimulate further work on the topics discussed. The papers presented in this volume are published essentially as received from the authors, with some proofreading corrections made as limited time allowed.
