Dealing With Uncertainty In Agent Based Simulation

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Physics Of Cancer, The: Research Advances

Author : Bernard S Gerstman
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9811223505
Total Pages : 279 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (112 download)

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Book Synopsis Physics Of Cancer, The: Research Advances by : Bernard S Gerstman

Download or read book Physics Of Cancer, The: Research Advances written by Bernard S Gerstman and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020-12-03 with total page 279 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cancer deaths per capita have decreased in recent years, but the improvement is attributed to prevention, not treatment. The difficulty in treating cancer may be due to its 'complexity', in the mathematical physics sense of the word. Tumors evolve and spread in response to internal and external factors that involve feedback mechanisms and nonlinear behavior. Investigations of the nonlinear interactions among cells, and between cells and their environment, are crucial for developing a sufficiently detailed understanding of the system's emergent phenomenology to be able to control the behavior. In the case of cancer, controlling the system's behavior will mean the ability to treat and cure the disease. Physicists have been studying various complex, nonlinear systems for many years using a variety of techniques. These investigations have provided insights that allow physicists to make unique contributions towards the treatment of cancer.This interdisciplinary book presents recent advancements in physicists' research on cancer. The work presented in this volume uses a variety of physical, biochemical, mathematical, theoretical, and computational techniques to gain a deeper molecular and cellular understanding of the horrific disease that is cancer.

Dealing with Uncertainty in Agent-Based Simulation

Author : Christian Troost
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)

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Book Synopsis Dealing with Uncertainty in Agent-Based Simulation by : Christian Troost

Download or read book Dealing with Uncertainty in Agent-Based Simulation written by Christian Troost and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change will most likely confront agricultural producers with natural, economic, and political conditions that have not previously been observed and are largely uncertain. As a consequence, extrapolation from past data reaches its limits, and a process-based analysis of farmer adaptation is required. Simulation of changes in crop yields using crop growth models is a first step in that direction. However, changes in crop yields are only one pathway through which climate change affects agricultural production. A meaningful process-based analysis of farmer adaptation requires a whole-farm analysis at the farm level. We use a highly disaggregated mathematical programming model to analyze farm-level climate change adaptation for a mountainous area in southwest Germany. Regional-level results are obtained by simulating each full-time farm holding in the study area. We address parameter uncertainty and model underdetermination using a cautious calibration approach and a comprehensive uncertainty analysis. We deal with the resulting computational burden using efficient experimental designs and high-performance computing. We show that in our study area, shifted crop management time slots can have potentially significant effects on agricultural supply, incomes, and various policy objectives promoted under German and European environmental policy schemes. The simulated effects are robust against model uncertainty and underline the importance of a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts beyond merely looking at crop yield changes. Our simulations demonstrate how farm-level models can contribute to a process-based analysis of climate change adaptation if they are embedded into a systematic framework for treating inherent model uncertainty.

Understanding Risks and Uncertainties in Energy and Climate Policy

Author : Haris Doukas
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030031527
Total Pages : 271 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Risks and Uncertainties in Energy and Climate Policy by : Haris Doukas

Download or read book Understanding Risks and Uncertainties in Energy and Climate Policy written by Haris Doukas and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-10 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book analyzes and seeks to consolidate the use of robust quantitative tools and qualitative methods for the design and assessment of energy and climate policies. In particular, it examines energy and climate policy performance and associated risks, as well as public acceptance and portfolio analysis in climate policy, and presents methods for evaluating the costs and benefits of flexible policy implementation as well as new framings for business and market actors. In turn, it discusses the development of alternative policy pathways and the identification of optimal switching points, drawing on concrete examples to do so. Lastly, it discusses climate change mitigation policies’ implications for the agricultural, food, building, transportation, service and manufacturing sectors.

Assessing the Use of Agent-Based Models for Tobacco Regulation

Author : Institute of Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309317258
Total Pages : 269 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (93 download)

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Book Synopsis Assessing the Use of Agent-Based Models for Tobacco Regulation by : Institute of Medicine

Download or read book Assessing the Use of Agent-Based Models for Tobacco Regulation written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2015-07-17 with total page 269 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tobacco consumption continues to be the leading cause of preventable disease and death in the United States. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulates the manufacture, distribution, and marketing of tobacco products - specifically cigarettes, cigarette tobacco, roll-your-own tobacco, and smokeless tobacco - to protect public health and reduce tobacco use in the United States. Given the strong social component inherent to tobacco use onset, cessation, and relapse, and given the heterogeneity of those social interactions, agent-based models have the potential to be an essential tool in assessing the effects of policies to control tobacco. Assessing the Use of Agent-Based Models for Tobacco Regulation describes the complex tobacco environment; discusses the usefulness of agent-based models to inform tobacco policy and regulation; presents an evaluation framework for policy-relevant agent-based models; examines the role and type of data needed to develop agent-based models for tobacco regulation; provides an assessment of the agent-based model developed for FDA; and offers strategies for using agent-based models to inform decision making in the future.

Multi-Agent Based Simulation XVIII

Author : Graçaliz Pereira Dimuro
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319915878
Total Pages : 236 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (199 download)

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Book Synopsis Multi-Agent Based Simulation XVIII by : Graçaliz Pereira Dimuro

Download or read book Multi-Agent Based Simulation XVIII written by Graçaliz Pereira Dimuro and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-05-12 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed post-conference proceedings of the 18th International Workshop on Multi-Agent-Based Simulation, MABS 2017, held in Sao Paulo, Brazil, in May 2017. The workshop was held in conjunction with the 16th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, AAMAS 2017. The 15 revised full papers included in this volume were carefully selected from 23 submissions. The topic of the papers is about applying agent-based simulation techniques to real-world problems focusing on the confluence of socio-technical-natural sciences and multi-agent systems with a strong application/empirical vein.

Design of Agent-based Models

Author : Tomáš Šalamon
Publisher : Tomáš Bruckner
ISBN 13 : 8090466117
Total Pages : 220 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (94 download)

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Book Synopsis Design of Agent-based Models by : Tomáš Šalamon

Download or read book Design of Agent-based Models written by Tomáš Šalamon and published by Tomáš Bruckner. This book was released on 2011 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although there are plenty of publications dealing with the theory of multi-agent systems and agent-based simulations, information about the practical development of such systems is scarce. The aim of this book is to fill this empty space and to provide knowledge about design and development of agent-based simulations in an easy and comprehensible way. The book begins with the fundamentals of multi-agent systems, agent principles and their interaction, and goes on to discuss the philosophy of agent-based programming. Agent-based models - like any other scientific method - have drawbacks and limitations, which are presented in the book as well. The main portion of the text is then devoted to a description of methodology and best practices for the design and development of agent-based simulation software. The methodology (called Agentology) guides the reader through the entire development process, from the formal definition of the problem, through conceptual modeling and the selection of the particular development platform, to the programming and debugging of the code itself and the final assessment of the model. The visual language as the means of representation of the conceptual model is included. The reader is also presented with a comparison of present multi-agent development environments and tools, which could be helpful for the selection of appropriate development instruments. Given that the theoretical foundation is presented in an accessible way and supported by many practical examples, figures, schemes and source codes, this publication is especially suitable as a textbook for introductory graduate-level courses on multi-agent systems and agent-based modeling. Besides appealing to students and the scientific community, the monograph can aid software architects and developers who are not familiar with agent principles, conveying valuable insights into this distinct computer paradigm.

Agent-Based Simulation of Vulnerability Dynamics

Author : Cilli Sobiech
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642323642
Total Pages : 232 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (423 download)

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Book Synopsis Agent-Based Simulation of Vulnerability Dynamics by : Cilli Sobiech

Download or read book Agent-Based Simulation of Vulnerability Dynamics written by Cilli Sobiech and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-10-11 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis constitutes an extraordinary innovative research approach in transferring the concepts and methods of complex systems to risk research. It ambitiously bridges the barriers between theoretical, empirical and methodical research work and integrates these fields into one comprehensive approach of dealing with uncertainty in socio-ecological systems. The developed agent-based simulation aims at the dynamics of social vulnerability in the considered system of the German North Sea Coast. Thus, the social simulation provides an analytical method to explore the individual, relational, and spatial aspects leading to dynamics of vulnerability in society. Combining complexity science and risk research by the method of agent-based simulation hereby emphasizes the importance of understanding interrelations inside the system for the system's development, i.e. for the evolving. Based on a vulnerability assessment regarding vulnerability characteristics, present risk behavior and self-protection preferences of private households against the impacts of flooding and storm surges, possible system trajectories could be explored by means of simulation experiments. The system-analytical approach therefore contributes to an integrated consideration of multi-dimensional and context-sensitv social phenomena such as vulnerability. Furthermore it achieves conceptually and strategically relevant implications for risk research and complex systems research.

Empirical Agent-Based Modelling - Challenges and Solutions

Author : Alexander Smajgl
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1461461340
Total Pages : 254 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (614 download)

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Book Synopsis Empirical Agent-Based Modelling - Challenges and Solutions by : Alexander Smajgl

Download or read book Empirical Agent-Based Modelling - Challenges and Solutions written by Alexander Smajgl and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-09-12 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This instructional book showcases techniques to parameterise human agents in empirical agent-based models (ABM). In doing so, it provides a timely overview of key ABM methodologies and the most innovative approaches through a variety of empirical applications. It features cutting-edge research from leading academics and practitioners, and will provide a guide for characterising and parameterising human agents in empirical ABM. In order to facilitate learning, this text shares the valuable experiences of other modellers in particular modelling situations. Very little has been published in the area of empirical ABM, and this contributed volume will appeal to graduate-level students and researchers studying simulation modeling in economics, sociology, ecology, and trans-disciplinary studies, such as topics related to sustainability. In a similar vein to the instruction found in a cookbook, this text provides the empirical modeller with a set of 'recipes' ready to be implemented. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a powerful, simulation-modeling technique that has seen a dramatic increase in real-world applications in recent years. In ABM, a system is modeled as a collection of autonomous decision-making entities called “agents.” Each agent individually assesses its situation and makes decisions on the basis of a set of rules. Agents may execute various behaviors appropriate for the system they represent—for example, producing, consuming, or selling. ABM is increasingly used for simulating real-world systems, such as natural resource use, transportation, public health, and conflict. Decision makers increasingly demand support that covers a multitude of indicators that can be effectively addressed using ABM. This is especially the case in situations where human behavior is identified as a critical element. As a result, ABM will only continue its rapid growth. This is the first volume in a series of books that aims to contribute to a cultural change in the community of empirical agent-based modelling. This series will bring together representational experiences and solutions in empirical agent-based modelling. Creating a platform to exchange such experiences allows comparison of solutions and facilitates learning in the empirical agent-based modelling community. Ultimately, the community requires such exchange and learning to test approaches and, thereby, to develop a robust set of techniques within the domain of empirical agent-based modelling. Based on robust and defendable methods, agent-based modelling will become a critical tool for research agencies, decision making and decision supporting agencies, and funding agencies. This series will contribute to more robust and defendable empirical agent-based modelling.

Multi-Agent and Multi-Agent-Based Simulation

Author : Paul Davidsson
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540252622
Total Pages : 275 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (42 download)

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Book Synopsis Multi-Agent and Multi-Agent-Based Simulation by : Paul Davidsson

Download or read book Multi-Agent and Multi-Agent-Based Simulation written by Paul Davidsson and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-03-07 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed postproceedings of the Joint International Workshop on Multi-Agent and Multi-Agent-Based Simulation, MABS 2004, held in New York, NY, USA in July 2004. The 20 revised full papers presented have gone through two rounds of reviewing, selection, and improvement; they present state-of-the-art research results in agent-based simulation and modeling. The papers are organized in topical sections on simulation of multi-agent systems, techniques and technologies, methodology and modeling, social dynamics, and application.

Agent-Based Modelling and Geographical Information Systems

Author : Andrew Crooks
Publisher : SAGE
ISBN 13 : 1526454181
Total Pages : 486 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (264 download)

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Book Synopsis Agent-Based Modelling and Geographical Information Systems by : Andrew Crooks

Download or read book Agent-Based Modelling and Geographical Information Systems written by Andrew Crooks and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2018-12-13 with total page 486 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the era of Big Data and computational social science. It is an era that requires tools which can do more than visualise data but also model the complex relation between data and human action, and interaction. Agent-Based Models (ABM) - computational models which simulate human action and interaction – do just that. This textbook explains how to design and build ABM and how to link the models to Geographical Information Systems. It guides you from the basics through to constructing more complex models which work with data and human behaviour in a spatial context. All of the fundamental concepts are explained and related to practical examples to facilitate learning (with models developed in NetLogo with all code examples available on the accompanying website). You will be able to use these models to develop your own applications and link, where appropriate, to Geographical Information Systems. All of the key ideas and methods are explained in detail: geographical modelling; an introduction to ABM; the fundamentals of Geographical Information Science; why ABM and GIS; using QGIS; designing and building an ABM; calibration and validation; modelling human behavior. An applied primer, that provides fundamental knowledge and practical skills, it will provide you with the skills to build and run your own models, and to begin your own research projects.

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Archaeological Computational Modeling

Author : Marieka Brouwer Burg
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319278339
Total Pages : 189 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (192 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Archaeological Computational Modeling by : Marieka Brouwer Burg

Download or read book Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Archaeological Computational Modeling written by Marieka Brouwer Burg and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-18 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume deals with the pressing issue of uncertainty in archaeological modeling. Detecting where and when uncertainty is introduced to the modeling process is critical, as are strategies for minimizing, reconciling, or accommodating such uncertainty. Included chapters provide unique perspectives on uncertainty in archaeological modeling, ranging in both theoretical and methodological orientation. The strengths and weaknesses of various identification and mitigation techniques are discussed, in particular sensitivity analysis. The chapters demonstrate that for archaeological modeling purposes, there is no quick fix for uncertainty; indeed, each archaeological model requires intensive consideration of uncertainty and specific applications for calibration and validation. As very few such techniques have been problematized in a systematic manner or published in the archaeological literature, this volume aims to provide guidance and direction to other modelers in the field by distilling some basic principles for model testing derived from insight gathered in the case studies presented. Additionally, model applications and their attendant uncertainties are presented from distinct spatio-temporal contexts and will appeal to a broad range of archaeological modelers. This volume will also be of interest to non-modeling archaeologists, as consideration of uncertainty when interpreting the archaeological record is also a vital concern for the development of non-formal (or implicit) models of human behavior in the past.

Agent-Based Models in Economics

Author : Domenico Delli Gatti
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108414990
Total Pages : 261 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (84 download)

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Book Synopsis Agent-Based Models in Economics by : Domenico Delli Gatti

Download or read book Agent-Based Models in Economics written by Domenico Delli Gatti and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-03-22 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first step-by-step introduction to the methodology of agent-based models in economics, their mathematical and statistical analysis, and real-world applications.

Agent-Based Modelling of Socio-Technical Systems

Author : Koen H. van Dam
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9400749333
Total Pages : 285 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Agent-Based Modelling of Socio-Technical Systems by : Koen H. van Dam

Download or read book Agent-Based Modelling of Socio-Technical Systems written by Koen H. van Dam and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-10-08 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision makers in large scale interconnected network systems require simulation models for decision support. The behaviour of these systems is determined by many actors, situated in a dynamic, multi-actor, multi-objective and multi-level environment. How can such systems be modelled and how can the socio-technical complexity be captured? Agent-based modelling is a proven approach to handle this challenge. This book provides a practical introduction to agent-based modelling of socio-technical systems, based on a methodology that has been developed at TU Delft and which has been deployed in a large number of case studies. The book consists of two parts: the first presents the background, theory and methodology as well as practical guidelines and procedures for building models. In the second part this theory is applied to a number of case studies, where for each model the development steps are presented extensively, preparing the reader for creating own models.

Agent-Based Simulation: From Modeling Methodologies to Real-World Applications

Author : Takao Terano
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9784431265924
Total Pages : 270 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (659 download)

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Book Synopsis Agent-Based Simulation: From Modeling Methodologies to Real-World Applications by : Takao Terano

Download or read book Agent-Based Simulation: From Modeling Methodologies to Real-World Applications written by Takao Terano and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-08-03 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Agent-based modeling/simulation is an emerging field that uses bottom-up and experimental analysis in the social sciences. Selected research from that presented at the Third International Workshop on Agent-Based Approaches in Economic and Social Complex Systems 2004, held in May 2004 in Kyoto, Japan, is included in this book. The aim of the workshop was to employ the bottom-up approach to social and economic problems by modeling, simulation, and analysis using a software agent. This research area is an emerging interdisciplinary field among the social sciences and computer science, attracting broad attention because it introduces a simulation-based experimental approach to problems that are becoming increasingly complex in an era of globalization and innovation in information technology. The state-of-the-art research and findings presented in this book will be indispensable tools for anyone involved in this rapidly growing discipline.

Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies

Author : André Grow
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319322834
Total Pages : 511 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (193 download)

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Book Synopsis Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies by : André Grow

Download or read book Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies written by André Grow and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-08-11 with total page 511 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the use of agent-based modelling (ABM) in population studies, from concepts to applications, best practices to future developments. It features papers written by leading experts in the field that will help readers to better understand the usefulness of ABM for population projections, how ABM can be injected with empirical data to achieve a better match between model and reality, how geographic information can be fruitfully used in ABM, and how ABM results can be reported effectively and correctly. Coverage ranges from detailing the relation between ABM and existing paradigms in population studies to infusing agent-based models with empirical data. The papers show the benefits that ABM offers the field, including enhanced theory formation by better linking the micro level with the macro level, the ability to represent populations more adequately as complex systems, and the possibility to study rare events and the implications of alternative mechanisms in artificial laboratories. In addition, readers will discover guidelines and best practices with detailed examples of how to apply agent-based models in different areas of population research, including human mating behaviour, migration, and socio-structural determinants of health behaviours. Earlier versions of the papers in this book have been presented at the workshop “Recent Developments and Future Directions in Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies,” which took place at the University of Leuven (KU Leuven), Belgium, in September 2014. The book will contribute to the development of best practices in the field and will provide a solid point of reference for scholars who want to start using agent-based modelling in their own research.

Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography

Author : Jakub Bijak
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 303083039X
Total Pages : 277 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (38 download)

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Book Synopsis Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography by : Jakub Bijak

Download or read book Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography written by Jakub Bijak and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-12-09 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book presents a ground-breaking approach to developing micro-foundations for demography and migration studies. It offers a unique and novel methodology for creating empirically grounded agent-based models of international migration – one of the most uncertain population processes and a top-priority policy area. The book discusses in detail the process of building a simulation model of migration, based on a population of intelligent, cognitive agents, their networks and institutions, all interacting with one another. The proposed model-based approach integrates behavioural and social theory with formal modelling, by embedding the interdisciplinary modelling process within a wider inductive framework based on the Bayesian statistical reasoning. Principles of uncertainty quantification are used to devise innovative computer-based simulations, and to learn about modelling the simulated individuals and the way they make decisions. The identified knowledge gaps are subsequently filled with information from dedicated laboratory experiments on cognitive aspects of human decision-making under uncertainty. In this way, the models are built iteratively, from the bottom up, filling an important epistemological gap in migration studies, and social sciences more broadly.

Uncertainty Management in Simulation-Optimization of Complex Systems

Author : Gabriella Dellino
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1489975470
Total Pages : 282 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (899 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty Management in Simulation-Optimization of Complex Systems by : Gabriella Dellino

Download or read book Uncertainty Management in Simulation-Optimization of Complex Systems written by Gabriella Dellino and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-06-29 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book aims at illustrating strategies to account for uncertainty in complex systems described by computer simulations. When optimizing the performances of these systems, accounting or neglecting uncertainty may lead to completely different results; therefore, uncertainty management is a major issues in simulation-optimization. Because of its wide field of applications, simulation-optimization issues have been addressed by different communities with different methods, and from slightly different perspectives. Alternative approaches have been developed, also depending on the application context, without any well-established method clearly outperforming the others. This editorial project brings together — as chapter contributors — researchers from different (though interrelated) areas; namely, statistical methods, experimental design, stochastic programming, global optimization, metamodeling, and design and analysis of computer simulation experiments. Editors’ goal is to take advantage of such a multidisciplinary environment, to offer to the readers a much deeper understanding of the commonalities and differences of the various approaches to simulation-based optimization, especially in uncertain environments. Editors aim to offer a bibliographic reference on the topic, enabling interested readers to learn about the state-of-the-art in this research area, also accounting for potential real-world applications to improve also the state-of-the-practice. Besides researchers and scientists of the field, the primary audience for the proposed book includes PhD students, academic teachers, as well as practitioners and professionals. Each of these categories of potential readers present adequate channels for marketing actions, e.g. scientific, academic or professional societies, internet-based communities, and authors or buyers of related publications.